Alan Roden

LF St. Paul Saints
Age 27 L/R 5'11" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.679 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424AAA/AATOR530.293/.394/.4751614108—.267/.342/.408
202525AAATOR142.331/.426/.49634123—.294/.369/.437
202525MLBMIN153.191/.267/.2942158-0.6
202626AAAMIN225.277/.387/.4669489—.224/.307/.348
202626MLBMIN94.291/.385/.392101180.1
2027PROJ45% MLB27MLBMIN107.240/.319/.37122960.2
2028PROJ56% MLB28MLBMIN154.238/.317/.36532940.1
2029PROJ59% MLB29MLBMIN164.235/.314/.35832910.1
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.679First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$0.2M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$3M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026
Speed42
Bat Spd38
xwOBA24
Avg EV20
Barrel%10
CompsRichie Palacios (age 27) · Trenton Brooks (age 27) · Nate Spears (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 8796vR 99
AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .319 / .371
PA107
HR2
K%18
BB%8
BABIP274
ISO105
MLB%45%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +1.7 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+2FLDPOS: -2.6 runs (Positional adjustment)-3POSREP: +5.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.50+0.5WAR
0.00.51.00.20.10.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus
Tools · Splits · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2025-2026
CONTACT
xAVG
140.222
POWER
Barrel%
102.9
Avg EV
2086.8
Bat Spd
3870.1
SPEED
Sprint
4227.1
Platoon Splits2025 · 153 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
26
127
—
wRC+
78
51
◀◀L
wOBA
284
244
◀L
ISO
143
096
◀◀L
BABIP
118
265
▶▶R
K%
11.5%
26.8%
◀◀L
BB%
11.5%
3.9%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2025
Service   0.679 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.9M+$0.1M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Arb-1$0.2M———
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.8M $2M +$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202222 ADunedin Blue Jays — 11590 21401 17135 51 233384311695 78253 1115 324 70 — — — — — —
202323 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 209174 54616 26328 92 310423460883 149350 1512 397 118 — — — — — —
202323 A+Vancouver Canadians — 323268 862314 423213 152 321437459895 138353 1013 405 112 — — — — — —
202424 AAABuffalo Bisons — 286245 771539 35414 80 314408510919 196345 1412 404 124 — — — — — —
202424 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 244206 551117 29347 61 267376432808 165287 1412 362 89 — — — — — —
202525 MLBMinnesota Twins — 153136 26612 8376 11 191267294561 103240 245 254 58 -8 -0 +2 -3 +3 -0.6
202525 AAABuffalo Bisons — 142121 40913 16134 41 331426496921 165349 911 408 123 — — — — — —
202626 MLBMinnesota Twins — 9479 23501 12120 00 291385392777 101324 1313 343 118 +2 +0 +0 -3 +2 0.1
202626 AAASt. Paul Saints — 225191 53909 30344 41 277387466853 188297 1513 381 89 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 247215 491113 20496 11 228311330641 102274 208 288 81 -6 -0 +2 -7 +5 -0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202222 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 11597 21401 10175 51 216321289610 72227 159 272 70 — — — — — —
202323 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 209184 53615 16408 92 288370413783 125338 198 342 118 — — — — — —
202323 A+ MLEVancouver Canadians — 323280 782113 304213 152 279375393767 114314 139 333 112 — — — — — —
202424 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 286257 751437 23494 80 292359451811 160333 178 352 124 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 244215 51915 20427 61 237322358680 121265 178 300 89 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 153136 26612 8376 11 191267294561 103240 245 254 58 -8 -0 +2 -3 +3 -0.6
202525 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 142126 37713 11164 41 294369437805 143314 118 350 123 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 9479 23501 12120 00 291385392777 101324 1313 343 118 +2 +0 +0 -3 +2 0.1
202626 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 225201 45706 20414 41 224307348655 124258 189 300 89 — — — — — —
202222 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 11597 21401 10175 51 216321289610 72244 159 272 70 — — — — — —
202222 A RAWDunedin Blue Jays — 11590 21401 17135 51 233384311695 78253 1115 324 70 — — — — — —
202323 A+ MLE2 teams — 532464 1312628 468221 244 282373399772 116328 159 337 114 — — — — — —
202323 A+ RAW2 teams — 532442 14029210 686421 244 317431459891 143352 1213 402 114 — — — — — —
202424 AAA MLE2 teams — 530472 12724412 439111 141 269344413757 144308 178 328 108 — — — — — —
202424 AAA RAW2 teams — 530451 13226416 647511 141 293394475868 182319 1412 384 108 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLE2 teams — 295262 631325 195310 52 240316363679 122279 186 300 89 -4 +0 +2 -3 +6 0.2
202525 MLB RAW2 teams — 295257 661525 245010 52 257344389733 132296 178 328 89 -4 +0 +2 -3 +6 0.2
202626 AAA MLE2 teams — 319280 681207 32534 41 243329361690 118275 1710 313 98 — — — — — —
202626 AAA RAW2 teams — 319270 7614010 42464 41 281386444831 163306 1413 370 98 — — — — — —
202222 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 11599 21401 10175 51 212321283604 71227 159 272 70 — — — — — —
202323 A+ MLE2 teams — 532460 1312628 468221 244 285373402775 117323 159 337 114 — — — — — —
202424 AAA MLE2 teams — 530471 12724412 439111 141 270344414758 144302 178 328 108 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLE2 teams — 295264 631325 195310 52 239316360676 121276 186 300 89 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLE2 teams — 319280 681207 32534 41 243329361690 118277 1710 313 98 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 AAA MLE2 teams — 530471 12724412 439111 141 270344414758 144302 178 328 108 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLE2 teams — 295264 631325 195310 52 239316360676 121276 186 300 89 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLE2 teams — 319280 681207 32534 41 243329361690 118277 1710 313 98 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLEMIN 45% 369328 791528 32666 61 240319370689 130274 189 310 96 -2 +1 +3 -4 +8 0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXMIN 45% 10795 22402 9192 20 240319371690 131274 188 310 96 -1 +0 +1 -1 +2 0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLEMIN 56% 276245 581116 24505 41 237317365682 127273 189 307 94 -2 +0 +1 -3 +6 0.3
202929 MLB MLEMIN 59% 276245 581116 24515 31 235314358671 123271 189 303 91 -3 +0 +1 -3 +6 0.1
203030 MLB MLEMIN 61% 276247 581116 23524 21 231310349658 118269 198 298 88 -4 +0 -0 -3 +6 -0.1
202828 MLB CTXMIN 56% 154137 32613 13283 21 238317365682 128273 188 307 94 -1 +0 +1 -2 +3 0.1
202929 MLB CTXMIN 59% 164146 34613 14303 20 235314358672 124271 189 303 91 -2 +0 +0 -2 +4 0.1
203030 MLB CTXMIN 61% 170151 36713 14323 10 231310350659 118269 198 298 88 -2 +0 -0 -2 +4 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 735649 15130412 6113915 62 233313347660 114275 198 298 99 -11 +0 +3 -12 +16 -0.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650574 13527411 5412313 52 235315354669 118277 198 298 99 -10 +0 +3 -10 +14 -0.3
Career— MLE — 28572523 6351221256 24249269 6513 252334376710 124291 178 314 99 -16 +1 +5 -18 +28 0.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650574 14528313 5511216 153 253335380715 127291 178 314 99 -8 +0 +3 -9 +14 0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 225 PAwOBA .370 → .300 (−70)K% 15.1% → 18.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.11%÷1.000×1.200——18.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.89%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0038.92%
HBP% /PA1.78%—×0.940—×1.0031.68%
Singles /BIP22.29%÷1.000×0.930×0.970×1.00320.16%
Doubles /BIP5.73%÷1.000×0.830×0.970×1.0034.63%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.970×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP5.73%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0034.02%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .370 → .300; ISO .188 → .140; BABIP .297 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 142 PAwOBA .401 → .350 (−51)K% 9.2% → 11.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.15%÷0.988×1.200——11.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.27%÷0.984×0.690—×1.0188.04%
HBP% /PA2.82%—×0.940—×1.0182.70%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.007×0.930×1.002×1.01823.55%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷1.098×0.830×1.002×1.0186.43%
Triples /BIP0.93%÷0.986×0.970×1.002×1.0180.93%
Home runs /BIP2.78%÷0.847×0.700—×1.0182.34%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 101, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .401 → .350; ISO .165 → .140; BABIP .349 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 286 PAwOBA .395 → .352 (−42)K% 14.3% → 17.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.34%÷1.004×1.200——17.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.89%÷1.028×0.690—×1.0338.24%
HBP% /PA1.40%—×0.940—×1.0331.36%
Singles /BIP24.51%÷0.988×0.930×1.028×1.03324.50%
Doubles /BIP7.35%÷0.959×0.830×1.028×1.0336.76%
Triples /BIP1.47%÷1.150×0.970×1.028×1.0331.32%
Home runs /BIP4.41%÷0.990×0.700—×1.0333.22%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .395 → .352; ISO .196 → .163; BABIP .345 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 244 PAwOBA .354 → .300 (−55)K% 13.9% → 17.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.93%÷0.995×1.220——17.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.48%÷0.990×0.700—×0.9988.10%
HBP% /PA2.87%—×0.850—×0.9982.43%
Singles /BIP20.93%÷1.015×0.970×1.015×0.99820.26%
Doubles /BIP6.40%÷1.051×0.860×1.015×0.9985.30%
Triples /BIP0.58%÷1.150×0.950×1.015×0.9980.49%
Home runs /BIP4.07%÷1.145×0.780—×0.9982.77%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .354 → .300; ISO .165 → .125; BABIP .287 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Vancouver Canadians · 323 PAwOBA .395 → .333 (−63)K% 9.9% → 13.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.91%÷1.028×1.350——13.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.00%÷0.992×0.710—×0.9889.19%
HBP% /PA4.02%—×0.810—×0.9883.22%
Singles /BIP24.58%÷1.006×0.910×1.010×0.98822.20%
Doubles /BIP9.75%÷0.949×0.830×1.010×0.9888.51%
Triples /BIP0.42%÷0.900×0.820×1.010×0.9880.39%
Home runs /BIP1.69%÷1.253×0.830—×0.9881.11%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 106, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .395 → .333; ISO .138 → .113; BABIP .353 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 209 PAwOBA .387 → .342 (−45)K% 15.3% → 19.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.31%÷0.967×1.220——19.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.96%÷1.105×0.700—×1.0127.67%
HBP% /PA3.83%—×0.850—×1.0123.29%
Singles /BIP28.87%÷1.023×0.970×1.024×1.01228.37%
Doubles /BIP4.23%÷0.963×0.860×1.024×1.0123.91%
Triples /BIP0.70%÷1.033×0.950×1.024×1.0120.67%
Home runs /BIP4.23%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0123.33%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 93, 3B 107, K 93, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .387 → .342; ISO .149 → .128; BABIP .350 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADunedin Blue Jays · 115 PAwOBA .322 → .272 (−49)K% 11.3% → 15.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.30%÷1.017×1.360——15.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.91%÷1.050×0.690—×0.9909.05%
HBP% /PA4.35%—×0.780—×0.9903.36%
Singles /BIP20.78%÷1.005×0.920×1.004×0.99018.89%
Doubles /BIP5.19%÷0.983×0.830×1.004×0.9904.36%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.910×1.004×0.9900.00%
Home runs /BIP1.30%÷0.916×0.800—×0.9901.12%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .322 → .272; ISO .078 → .072; BABIP .253 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).