Alan Roden — OGILVIE

Alan RodenLF St. Paul Saints

Age 26 L/R 5'11" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION167 act + 111 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 8461vR 52

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .290 / .342

PA111

HR3

K%20

BB%8

BABIP239

ISO131

MLB%45%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

649.5%

xwOBA

100.240

POWER43

Barrel%

102.7

Avg EV

2286.9

Bat Spd

3870.1

EYE45

Chase%

5031.7%

SPEED51

Sprint

5827.8

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2025 · 153 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

127

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

284

244

◀L

ISO

143

096

◀◀L

BABIP

118

265

▶▶R

11.5%

26.8%

◀◀L

BB%

11.5%

3.9%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.8M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	115	96	20	4	0	1	11	18	5	5	1	208	321	281	603	73	237	16	10	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	115	90	21	4	0	1	17	13	5	5	1	233	384	311	695	78	253	11	15	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	2 teams	—	532	469	126	26	2	8	41	86	21	24	4	269	354	384	738	115	314	16	8	323	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	2 teams	—	532	442	140	29	2	10	68	64	21	24	4	317	431	459	891	143	352	12	13	402	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	530	473	123	23	3	13	42	93	11	14	1	260	335	404	738	144	296	18	8	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	530	451	132	26	4	16	64	75	11	14	1	293	394	475	868	182	319	14	12	384	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	2 teams	—	295	262	62	12	2	6	19	53	10	5	2	237	313	366	679	130	271	18	6	301	88	-4	+0	+2	-3	+8	0.4
2025	25	MLB	2 teams	—	295	257	66	15	2	5	24	50	10	5	2	257	344	389	733	132	296	17	8	328	109	+3	+0	+2	-3	+8	1.1
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AAA	MIN	—	167	146	33	5	0	7	19	33	2	2	1	226	323	404	727	178	245	20	11	316	100	+0	+0	+0	-2	+5	0.3
YTD	26	AAA	MIN	—	167	139	37	6	0	8	26	28	2	2	1	266	389	482	871	216	282	17	16	388	155	+10	+0	+0	-2	+5	1.4
ROS	26	AAA	MIN	45%	111	99	21	4	0	3	9	22	2	2	1	211	290	342	632	131	247	20	8	296	85	-2	+0	+1	-1	+3	0.1
ROS	26	MLB	MIN	45%	50	45	9	2	0	1	4	10	1	1	0	200	280	311	591	111	247	20	8	282	74	-1	+0	+1	-1	+1	0.0
FULL	26	AAA	MIN	—	217	191	42	7	0	8	23	43	3	3	1	220	313	382	696	162	243	20	11	308	94	-1	+0	+1	-2	+6	0.3
TOT	26	AAA	MIN	—	278	245	54	9	0	10	28	55	4	4	2	220	310	379	689	159	243	20	10	308	94	-2	+0	+1	-3	+8	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	MIN	49%	372	330	72	13	1	10	32	74	7	6	2	218	301	355	655	136	252	20	9	299	87	-6	+0	+4	-4	+11	0.5
2028	28	MLB	MIN	52%	386	343	76	13	2	11	33	78	7	6	2	222	303	367	670	146	254	20	9	299	87	-6	+0	+3	-4	+11	0.5
2027	27	MLB	MIN	49%	184	163	36	6	1	5	16	37	3	3	1	221	302	362	664	141	252	20	9	285	76	-5	+0	+2	-2	+5	0.0
2028	28	MLB	MIN	52%	200	177	40	7	1	6	17	40	4	3	1	226	308	379	687	153	254	20	8	286	77	-5	+0	+2	-2	+6	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	587	521	111	21	3	14	45	124	14	8	3	213	293	345	639	132	250	21	8	277	70	-20	+0	+6	-8	+17	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	123	23	3	16	50	137	16	9	3	213	294	347	641	133	249	21	8	277	70	-22	+1	+7	-9	+18	-0.5
Career	—			—	2341	2072	500	95	10	52	187	424	63	62	13	241	323	372	695	131	278	18	8	310	95	-12	+7	+10	-25	+66	4.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	138	26	3	14	52	118	17	17	4	240	321	369	690	129	277	18	8	310	95	-3	+2	+3	-7	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	115	90	21	4	0	1	17	13	5	5	1	233	384	311	695	78	253	11	15	324	106	+1	+1	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	209	174	54	6	1	6	26	32	8	9	2	310	423	460	883	149	350	15	12	397	162	+15	+1	—	—	+6	2.2
2023	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	323	268	86	23	1	4	42	32	13	15	2	321	437	459	895	138	353	10	13	405	168	+25	+2	—	—	+9	3.7
2024	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	286	245	77	15	3	9	35	41	4	8	0	314	408	510	919	196	345	14	12	404	167	+22	+2	—	—	+8	3.2
2024	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	244	206	55	11	1	7	29	34	7	6	1	267	376	432	808	165	287	14	12	362	135	+10	+1	—	—	+7	1.8
2025	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	153	136	26	6	1	2	8	37	6	1	1	191	267	294	561	103	240	24	5	254	53	-8	-0	+2	-3	+4	-0.5
2025	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	142	121	40	9	1	3	16	13	4	4	1	331	426	496	921	165	349	9	11	408	170	+11	+0	—	—	+4	1.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	153	136	26	6	1	2	8	37	6	1	1	191	267	294	561	103	240	24	5	254	53	-8	-0	+2	-3	+4	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#6Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	649	15	10	213	289	343	-7	+5	-0.5	-0.5
	/162	664	15	10	213	289	343	-7.1	+4.7	-0.5	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alan Roden (OGILVIE)	26	30→50	35→43	55→51	45	220/310/379	159	243	10	4	20%	10%	94	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis González 2022 · AAA	26	43→52	44→45	51→50	46	215/279/327	112	272	13	18	26%	7%	69	-0.4	240/311/358	118	312	11	18	25%	9%	90	+1.0	246/323/362	117	312	10	20	23%	9%	93	+0.6
✕Nate Spears 2012 · AAA	27	43→53	45	53→50	50	216/290/340	124	255	12	12	20%	8%	76	+0.1	211/279/319	108	276	10	10	25%	8%	66	-0.6	206/272/302	96	276	8	8	27%	8%	56	-0.6
✕Conner Capel 2023 · MLB	26	43→46	47→50	50→55	48	220/285/354	134	264	15	17	23%	8%	78	+0.2	212/280/332	120	272	13	21	26%	8%	70	-0.3	202/267/336	134	242	17	17	24%	7%	63	-0.5
✕Steele Walker 2022 · AAA	26	43→46	46→45	47→50	43	218/267/345	128	259	14	10	22%	6%	68	-0.5	215/269/338	123	263	14	10	23%	6%	67	-0.5	203/262/317	114	246	13	9	23%	6%	55	-0.5
✕Jeff Salazar 2007 · MLB	26	45→51	44→50	51→55	50	223/294/345	123	275	11	15	23%	9%	79	+0.3	235/305/368	133	281	11	15	20%	9%	89	+1.0	236/306/368	132	278	11	17	19%	8%	87	+0.6
✕Carlos Alvarez 2014 · AAA	26	44	44→45	46→45	47	220/282/342	122	276	11	6	24%	8%	73	-0.1	232/307/337	105	283	8	8	20%	9%	83	+0.6	245/326/331	86	298	6	6	18%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Jason Romano 2005 · MLB	26	42	44→45	53→50	44	212/267/323	112	268	12	15	26%	7%	62	-0.9	232/282/350	118	283	11	9	21%	6%	75	-0.0	255/296/373	118	310	9	9	20%	5%	84	+0.3
✕Adam Haseley 2022 · MLB	26	46→56	43→45	49→50	45	226/282/331	105	277	11	11	23%	6%	70	-0.3	218/268/315	97	269	9	16	22%	5%	60	-1.0	215/266/308	93	266	8	18	21%	5%	54	-1.0
●Brad Nelson 2009 · AAA	26	44→48	48→50	44→50	48	226/288/369	143	269	16	11	22%	8%	83	+0.6	209/271/351	142	246	17	6	23%	8%	72	-0.2	217/287/376	159	258	20	2	24%	9%	84	+0.5
✕Tyler Collins 2016 · MLB	26	45→50	48→50	48→50	43	230/281/367	137	281	16	11	24%	6%	79	+0.3	219/277/346	127	285	15	10	27%	7%	72	-0.2	213/274/343	130	280	16	9	29%	7%	68	-0.3
✕Charles Thomas 2006 · MLB	27	45→50	43→45	52→50	49	222/298/338	116	266	10	16	20%	8%	79	+0.3	222/280/311	89	283	9	13	24%	6%	64	-0.8	221/276/292	70	286	8	11	24%	6%	53	-0.9
✕Reese McGuire 2021 · MLB	26	43→52	45	49→45	44	217/268/339	122	258	14	7	22%	6%	66	-0.6	237/285/339	102	297	8	5	22%	6%	73	-0.1	248/295/336	88	317	4	3	22%	5%	75	-0.0
✕Max Schrock 2021 · MLB	26	46→56	40	50	46	223/274/320	97	264	7	15	18%	6%	64	-0.8	239/283/362	123	288	13	7	21%	5%	79	+0.3	244/289/362	118	290	12	3	20%	5%	77	+0.0
✕Preston Beck 2017 · AAA	26	45→44	43→45	50→45	46	219/276/337	118	268	10	8	22%	7%	69	-0.4	213/265/314	101	276	9	5	25%	6%	59	-1.1	206/260/302	96	272	8	2	26%	6%	50	-1.2
✕Roman Pena 2012 · AAA	25	41→51	44→50	47→45	48	201/277/321	120	266	10	9	27%	9%	66	-0.6	243/304/382	139	332	13	9	28%	8%	92	+1.2	207/271/343	136	314	14	6	37%	8%	66	-0.4
✕Caleb Gindl 2015 · MLB	26	42→52	46→50	44→50	44	214/270/342	128	274	13	5	27%	7%	68	-0.5	222/268/353	131	276	14	5	24%	6%	70	-0.3	244/288/382	138	296	13	1	22%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Nick Maton 2023 · MLB	26	43→42	47→50	48→45	47	216/290/357	141	287	13	7	29%	8%	81	+0.4	218/307/369	151	274	18	5	26%	10%	92	+1.2	208/307/357	149	255	19	3	25%	11%	86	+0.4
✕Sherman Johnson 2017 · AAA	27	40→50	44→50	53→50	52	200/279/317	117	243	12	16	23%	10%	66	-0.6	204/276/303	99	274	8	13	27%	9%	61	-1.0	199/272/291	92	271	7	11	28%	9%	52	-0.8
✕Mitch Longo 2021 · AA	26	44→43	43→50	52→50	42	219/268/334	115	281	10	13	26%	6%	65	-0.7	228/274/378	150	297	18	18	29%	5%	79	+0.3	223/268/384	160	285	20	22	29%	5%	74	-0.0
✕Sócrates Brito 2019 · MLB	26	44→54	45→50	51→55	39	218/260/340	121	286	12	13	28%	5%	63	-0.9	221/267/361	140	296	14	16	29%	6%	72	-0.2	217/264/352	135	290	12	20	29%	5%	66	-0.5