Alan Roden — OGILVIE

Alan RodenLF St. Paul Saints

Age 26 L/R 5'11" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION290 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 7786vR 89

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%20

BB%10

BABIP260

ISO124

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

896.9%

xAVG

100.211

POWER43

Barrel%

103.1

Avg EV

2186.9

Bat Spd

3870.1

EYE45

Chase%

9023.1%

SPEED51

Sprint

4627.3

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%16%▲▲13% over 63 PA (60d) · proj 20%

BB%9%▲11% over 63 PA (60d) · proj 8%

ISO.112▼.075 over 53 AB (60d) · proj .124xISO .119 vs .066 prior — approach does NOT back the move

HR/BB2.1%▼0.0% over 47 BBE (60d) · proj 3.0%barrel% 5.1% vs 2.0% prior — approach does NOT back the move

BABIP.258·.298 over 47 BIP (60d) · proj .256xAVG .279 vs .220 prior

SLASH.226/.309/.338·proj .219/.293/.343

Platoon Splits2025 · 153 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

127

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

284

244

◀L

ISO

143

096

◀◀L

BABIP

118

265

▶▶R

11.5%

26.8%

◀◀L

BB%

11.5%

3.9%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	115	90	21	4	0	1	17	13	5	5	1	233	384	311	695	78	253	11	15	324	105	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.4
2023	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	209	174	54	6	1	6	26	32	8	9	2	310	423	460	883	149	350	15	12	397	155	+14	+1	—	—	+5	2.0
2023	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	323	268	86	23	1	4	42	32	13	15	2	321	437	459	895	138	353	10	13	405	160	+23	+2	—	—	+7	3.3
2024	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	286	245	77	15	3	9	35	41	4	8	0	314	408	510	919	196	345	14	12	404	159	+20	+2	—	—	+6	2.9
2024	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	244	206	55	11	1	7	29	34	7	6	1	267	376	432	808	165	287	14	12	362	131	+9	+1	—	—	+5	1.5
2025	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	153	136	26	6	1	2	8	37	6	1	1	191	267	294	561	103	240	24	5	254	58	-8	-0	+2	-3	+3	-0.6
2025	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	142	121	40	9	1	3	16	13	4	4	1	331	426	496	921	165	349	9	11	408	162	+11	+0	—	—	+3	1.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	153	136	26	6	1	2	8	37	6	1	1	191	267	294	561	103	240	24	5	254	58	-8	-0	+2	-3	+3	-0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	115	96	20	4	0	1	11	18	5	5	1	208	321	281	603	73	236	16	10	288	81	-3	+1	—	—	+2	0.1
2023	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	209	184	52	6	1	5	16	40	8	9	2	283	365	408	773	125	326	19	8	333	112	+3	+1	—	—	+5	0.9
2023	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	323	283	75	19	1	3	27	44	13	15	2	265	356	371	727	106	301	14	8	316	100	+0	+2	—	—	+7	0.9
2024	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	286	257	74	14	3	7	23	49	4	8	0	288	356	447	803	160	322	17	8	342	118	+6	+2	—	—	+6	1.4
2024	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	244	215	51	10	1	5	20	42	7	6	1	237	322	363	685	126	259	17	8	296	86	-4	+1	—	—	+5	0.2
2025	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	153	136	26	6	1	2	8	37	6	1	1	191	267	294	561	103	240	24	5	251	56	-8	-0	+2	-3	+3	-0.6
2025	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	142	126	37	7	1	3	11	16	4	4	1	294	369	437	805	143	307	11	8	344	119	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.7
2022	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	115	96	20	4	0	1	11	18	5	5	1	208	321	281	603	73	237	16	10	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	115	90	21	4	0	1	17	13	5	5	1	233	384	311	695	78	253	11	15	324	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	532	468	127	25	2	8	42	84	21	24	4	271	358	385	742	113	316	16	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	532	442	140	29	2	10	68	64	21	24	4	317	431	459	891	143	352	12	13	402	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	473	122	23	3	11	42	91	11	14	1	258	333	389	722	131	296	17	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	530	451	132	26	4	16	64	75	11	14	1	293	394	475	868	182	319	14	12	384	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	295	262	63	13	2	5	19	53	10	5	2	240	316	363	679	122	279	18	6	296	86	-5	+0	+2	-3	+6	0.1
2025	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	295	257	66	15	2	5	24	50	10	5	2	257	344	389	733	132	296	17	8	328	86	-5	+0	+2	-3	+6	0.1
2022	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	115	98	20	4	0	1	11	18	5	5	1	204	321	276	597	71	236	16	10	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	532	464	127	25	2	8	42	84	21	24	4	274	358	388	746	114	311	16	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	472	122	23	3	11	42	91	11	14	1	258	333	390	723	131	293	17	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	295	264	63	13	2	5	19	53	10	5	2	239	316	360	676	121	272	18	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	532	464	127	25	2	8	42	84	21	24	4	274	358	388	746	114	311	16	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	472	122	23	3	11	42	91	11	14	1	258	333	390	723	131	293	17	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	295	264	63	13	2	5	19	53	10	5	2	239	316	360	676	121	272	18	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	MIN	—	290	255	60	11	0	6	28	48	4	4	1	235	321	349	670	114	266	17	10	299	88	-4	+0	+0	-3	+6	-0.0
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	MIN	—	79	67	17	4	0	0	9	11	0	0	0	254	342	313	656	60	293	14	11	293	88	-1	+0	+0	-3	+2	-0.3
YTD	26	AAA RAW	MIN	—	211	178	49	8	0	9	29	31	4	4	1	275	389	472	861	197	290	15	14	385	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	MLB RAW	MIN	—	79	67	17	4	0	0	9	11	0	0	0	254	342	313	656	60	293	14	11	293	85	-1	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
ROS	26	AAA MLE	MIN	100%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		260	20	10	295	86	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		260	20	10	282	86	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	26	MLB A+C	MIN	—	89	76	18	4	0	0	10	13	0	0	0	237	326	289	615	53	277	15	11	292	88	-1	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.0
TOT	26	AAA MLE	MIN	—	300	264	61	11	0	6	29	50	4	4	1	231	316	341	657	110	262	17	10	299	88	-4	+0	+0	-3	+6	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	372	330	75	14	1	8	32	69	7	6	2	227	309	348	657	121	259	19	9	296	86	-6	+0	+4	-4	+8	0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	386	342	76	14	1	8	34	72	7	6	2	222	305	339	645	117	258	19	9	295	85	-7	+0	+3	-4	+8	0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	385	341	76	14	1	8	34	72	7	6	1	223	306	340	646	117	257	19	9	292	84	-7	+1	+3	-4	+8	0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	242	215	49	9	1	5	21	45	4	4	1	228	308	349	657	121	259	19	9	283	86	-4	+0	+2	-3	+5	0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	251	223	50	9	1	5	22	47	4	4	1	224	305	341	646	117	258	19	9	282	85	-4	+0	+2	-3	+5	0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	250	222	49	9	1	5	22	47	4	4	1	221	302	338	640	117	257	19	9	280	84	-5	+0	+2	-3	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	906	805	175	33	4	17	74	178	18	13	4	217	298	332	629	114	256	20	8	277	93	-21	+1	+8	-11	+20	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	126	24	3	12	53	128	13	9	3	218	298	332	630	114	258	20	8	277	93	-15	+1	+6	-8	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	2625	2321	560	107	10	49	215	461	68	66	13	241	324	359	683	118	279	18	8	305	93	-28	+1	+12	-16	+28	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	138	26	2	12	53	114	17	16	3	240	322	355	677	115	278	18	8	305	93	-14	+1	+6	-8	+14	-0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.9	1,232	23	18	221	298	336	-13	+11	-0.7	-0.6
/162	664	12	10	-7.1	+6.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alan Roden (OGILVIE)	26	30→50	35→43	55→51	45	224/303/342	118	260	5	4	18%	8%	86	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeff Fiorentino 2009 · MLB	26	48→53	42→50	48→50	48	236/293/339	103	287	10	11	21%	7%	80	-0.2	239/299/355	116	291	10	13	20%	8%	86	+0.3	238/302/360	122	284	10	13	19%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Nate Spears 2011 · AAA	26	47→56	43→45	49→50	51	229/298/346	117	264	10	9	17%	8%	83	+0.1	209/281/320	111	262	10	11	23%	8%	72	-0.7	202/267/295	93	272	7	8	27%	8%	58	-0.8
✕Luis González 2022 · AAA	26	43→52	44→45	51→50	46	215/280/323	108	271	12	18	25%	8%	72	-0.7	237/310/354	117	309	11	18	25%	9%	90	+0.6	241/318/356	115	306	11	20	23%	9%	91	+0.3
✕Jeff Salazar 2007 · MLB	26	45→51	44→50	51→55	51	223/295/344	121	275	11	15	23%	9%	82	-0.0	235/305/365	130	282	11	15	19%	9%	90	+0.6	235/304/363	128	277	10	17	19%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Jeff Duncan 2005 · MLB	26	43→47	41→45	54→60	50	210/290/306	97	270	9	18	25%	9%	72	-0.7	233/299/330	97	301	9	19	24%	8%	80	-0.2	232/299/312	80	302	7	21	24%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Charles Thomas 2006 · MLB	27	45→50	43→45	52→50	50	222/299/338	116	266	10	16	20%	8%	82	+0.0	222/281/312	90	283	9	13	24%	7%	69	-0.9	221/276/292	70	286	8	11	24%	6%	58	-1.0
✕Carlos Alvarez 2014 · AAA	26	46	43→45	46→45	48	224/287/341	117	280	10	6	23%	8%	78	-0.3	236/310/337	101	287	7	8	19%	9%	85	+0.2	250/327/331	82	302	5	6	17%	9%	89	+0.2
✕Nick Maton 2023 · MLB	26	44→42	46→50	48→45	48	215/293/350	135	287	12	7	28%	9%	83	+0.1	212/302/352	140	270	16	5	26%	10%	87	+0.4	199/299/335	135	249	16	3	26%	11%	80	-0.1
✕Roman Pena 2012 · AAA	25	40→50	43→50	47→45	48	199/274/316	118	263	10	9	28%	9%	68	-1.0	239/301/377	138	329	13	9	29%	8%	91	+0.7	210/275/346	137	314	14	6	36%	8%	73	-0.5
✕Tyler Collins 2016 · MLB	26	45→50	45	48→50	44	225/278/347	123	278	13	11	24%	6%	76	-0.4	216/275/333	117	285	13	10	28%	7%	72	-0.7	210/271/327	117	280	14	9	29%	7%	67	-0.8
✕Caleb Gindl 2015 · MLB	26	43→53	45→50	44→50	45	214/271/338	124	273	12	5	26%	7%	72	-0.7	217/266/335	118	270	11	5	23%	6%	68	-1.0	235/281/352	117	287	9	1	21%	6%	75	-0.2
✕Troy Johnston 2023 · AAA	26	46→56	45→50	50→55	46	229/294/351	122	291	13	5	25%	8%	83	+0.1	237/298/379	142	291	14	17	23%	6%	91	+0.7	236/297/382	147	286	15	23	22%	6%	88	+0.4
✕Sherman Johnson 2016 · AA	26	43→50	43→45	52→50	53	209/288/324	115	255	10	14	22%	10%	75	-0.5	204/282/306	102	264	8	14	24%	9%	68	-1.0	202/277/291	89	276	6	11	27%	9%	60	-0.9
✕Steele Walker 2022 · AAA	26	43→47	45	47→50	44	215/266/336	121	258	13	10	22%	6%	69	-0.9	211/266/329	118	259	13	10	23%	6%	68	-1.0	198/257/309	111	239	13	9	23%	6%	56	-0.7
✕Rene Tosoni 2012 · MLB	26	43→48	44→45	45	43	215/274/333	118	277	11	6	26%	6%	72	-0.7	206/257/302	96	255	9	7	22%	6%	57	-1.8	198/247/281	83	240	8	5	21%	5%	45	-1.9
✕Preston Beck 2017 · AAA	26	45→44	43→45	50→45	46	221/276/337	116	270	9	8	22%	7%	73	-0.6	217/269/318	101	276	8	5	23%	6%	65	-1.2	210/266/307	97	270	8	2	24%	6%	60	-1.1
✕Jason Romano 2005 · MLB	26	42	44→45	53→50	44	212/267/323	112	267	12	15	25%	7%	66	-1.1	232/282/350	118	283	11	9	21%	6%	78	-0.3	255/296/373	118	310	9	9	20%	5%	86	+0.1
✕Anthony Norman 2011 · AA	26	42	46→50	54→55	48	211/291/344	132	264	13	14	24%	8%	81	-0.1	212/271/313	101	296	6	10	29%	6%	65	-1.2	228/269/342	114	334	0	12	30%	5%	67	-0.2
✕Max Schrock 2021 · MLB	26	46→56	40	50	47	221/275/315	94	261	7	15	18%	6%	67	-1.1	239/285/360	121	287	13	7	21%	5%	81	-0.1	242/288/358	115	286	12	3	19%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Stephen Scott 2023 · AA	26	41→45	48→50	49→50	51	211/292/354	143	260	15	8	25%	10%	84	+0.1	210/281/354	144	265	16	10	26%	8%	80	-0.2	208/279/363	155	257	18	10	26%	8%	78	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps