Troy Johnston
RF Colorado Rockies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 714 | .269/.340/.399 | 12 | 21 | 82 | — | .240/.291/.358 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAAMIA | 354 | .252/.334/.439 | 12 | 31 | 63 | — | .194/.261/.330 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLBMIA | 121 | .277/.331/.420 | 4 | 2 | 119 | -0.5 | |
| 2026 | 29 | MLBCOL | 449 | .277/.352/.393 | 4 | 4 | 105 | 0.6 | |
| 2027PROJ | 30 | MLBCOL | 388 | .268/.338/.417 | 9 | 7 | 103 | 0.7 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 31 | MLBCOL | 340 | .262/.333/.405 | 7 | 3 | 99 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ92% MLB | 32 | MLBCOL | 320 | .255/.325/.389 | 6 | 1 | 93 | -0.2 |
Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 50 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Snappers | — | 420 | 357 | 103 | 22 | 1 | 14 | 57 | 91 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 289 | 394 | 473 | 867 | 185 | 352 | 22 | 14 | 386 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 96 | 83 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 349 | 432 | 446 | 877 | 96 | 394 | 12 | 11 | 393 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 81 | 71 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 296 | 383 | 338 | 721 | 42 | 420 | 26 | 11 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 116 | 97 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 155 | 293 | 330 | 623 | 175 | 159 | 21 | 16 | 289 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 376 | 329 | 96 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 32 | 71 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 292 | 367 | 450 | 817 | 158 | 337 | 19 | 9 | 357 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 226 | 198 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 44 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 323 | 404 | 520 | 925 | 197 | 381 | 19 | 9 | 407 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 374 | 314 | 93 | 23 | 4 | 18 | 42 | 64 | 12 | 16 | 1 | 296 | 397 | 567 | 964 | 271 | 319 | 17 | 11 | 414 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 528 | 479 | 132 | 30 | 4 | 11 | 37 | 100 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 276 | 340 | 424 | 764 | 148 | 327 | 19 | 7 | 340 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 186 | 163 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 252 | 341 | 325 | 666 | 74 | 299 | 16 | 10 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 121 | 112 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 277 | 331 | 420 | 750 | 143 | 329 | 21 | 7 | 335 | 119 | +3 | -0 | -1 | -8 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 354 | 314 | 79 | 15 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 68 | 11 | 31 | 5 | 252 | 334 | 439 | 774 | 188 | 285 | 19 | 8 | 344 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 449 | 397 | 110 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 83 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 277 | 352 | 393 | 745 | 116 | 337 | 18 | 8 | 333 | 105 | +3 | -1 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 0.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 570 | 509 | 141 | 34 | 2 | 8 | 45 | 109 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 277 | 348 | 399 | 746 | 122 | 335 | 19 | 8 | 333 | 112 | +8 | -2 | -2 | -13 | +12 | 0.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 420 | 377 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 120 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 223 | 301 | 355 | 656 | 133 | 298 | 29 | 9 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 96 | 87 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 337 | 345 | 682 | 69 | 323 | 17 | 7 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 116 | 102 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 233 | 265 | 497 | 137 | 147 | 26 | 11 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 376 | 340 | 86 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 90 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 253 | 310 | 379 | 689 | 126 | 300 | 24 | 6 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 226 | 204 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 51 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 275 | 342 | 426 | 769 | 152 | 334 | 23 | 6 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 374 | 333 | 80 | 22 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 79 | 12 | 16 | 1 | 240 | 316 | 450 | 767 | 210 | 265 | 21 | 7 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 528 | 491 | 118 | 26 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 120 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 240 | 291 | 358 | 649 | 118 | 298 | 23 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 121 | 112 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 277 | 331 | 420 | 750 | 143 | 329 | 21 | 7 | 344 | 119 | +3 | -0 | -1 | -8 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 354 | 324 | 63 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 84 | 11 | 31 | 5 | 194 | 261 | 330 | 591 | 136 | 232 | 24 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 449 | 397 | 107 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 83 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 270 | 345 | 383 | 728 | 113 | 337 | 18 | 8 | 323 | 105 | +3 | -1 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 597 | 537 | 126 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 51 | 157 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 235 | 309 | 358 | 667 | 123 | 306 | 26 | 9 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 597 | 511 | 153 | 30 | 1 | 15 | 77 | 124 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 299 | 398 | 450 | 848 | 151 | 369 | 21 | 13 | 380 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 442 | 99 | 22 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 120 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 224 | 291 | 346 | 637 | 122 | 279 | 24 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 492 | 426 | 111 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 50 | 95 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 261 | 349 | 423 | 772 | 162 | 299 | 19 | 10 | 341 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 600 | 537 | 135 | 33 | 4 | 19 | 39 | 130 | 19 | 24 | 2 | 251 | 324 | 434 | 758 | 182 | 296 | 22 | 6 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 600 | 512 | 157 | 36 | 5 | 26 | 62 | 108 | 19 | 24 | 2 | 307 | 400 | 549 | 949 | 242 | 343 | 18 | 10 | 412 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 714 | 664 | 159 | 35 | 5 | 11 | 34 | 162 | 13 | 21 | 3 | 239 | 290 | 357 | 647 | 117 | 300 | 23 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 714 | 642 | 173 | 39 | 4 | 12 | 56 | 129 | 13 | 21 | 3 | 269 | 340 | 399 | 739 | 129 | 319 | 18 | 8 | 332 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 475 | 436 | 95 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 110 | 12 | 33 | 7 | 218 | 281 | 358 | 638 | 140 | 261 | 23 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 475 | 426 | 110 | 17 | 5 | 16 | 36 | 94 | 12 | 33 | 7 | 258 | 333 | 434 | 768 | 176 | 297 | 20 | 8 | 342 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 449 | 397 | 107 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 83 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 270 | 345 | 383 | 728 | 113 | 327 | 18 | 8 | 323 | 105 | +3 | -1 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB RAW | Colorado Rockies | — | 449 | 397 | 110 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 83 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 277 | 352 | 393 | 745 | 116 | 337 | 18 | 8 | 333 | 105 | +3 | -1 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 597 | 534 | 126 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 51 | 157 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 236 | 309 | 360 | 669 | 124 | 303 | 26 | 9 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 447 | 99 | 22 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 120 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 221 | 291 | 342 | 634 | 121 | 264 | 24 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 600 | 537 | 135 | 33 | 4 | 19 | 39 | 130 | 19 | 24 | 2 | 251 | 324 | 434 | 758 | 182 | 291 | 22 | 6 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 714 | 661 | 159 | 35 | 5 | 11 | 34 | 162 | 13 | 21 | 3 | 241 | 290 | 359 | 648 | 118 | 298 | 23 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 475 | 434 | 95 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 110 | 12 | 33 | 7 | 219 | 281 | 359 | 640 | 141 | 257 | 23 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 449 | 400 | 107 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 83 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 268 | 345 | 380 | 725 | 112 | 337 | 18 | 8 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 714 | 661 | 159 | 35 | 5 | 11 | 34 | 162 | 13 | 21 | 3 | 241 | 290 | 359 | 648 | 118 | 298 | 23 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 475 | 434 | 95 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 110 | 12 | 33 | 7 | 219 | 281 | 359 | 640 | 141 | 257 | 23 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 449 | 400 | 107 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 83 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 268 | 345 | 380 | 725 | 112 | 337 | 18 | 8 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | COL | 100% | 474 | 426 | 108 | 25 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 94 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 255 | 327 | 390 | 717 | 135 | 305 | 20 | 8 | 321 | 103 | +2 | +0 | +1 | -5 | +10 | 1.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | COL | 100% | 388 | 348 | 93 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 77 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 268 | 338 | 417 | 755 | 149 | 319 | 20 | 8 | 336 | 103 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -4 | +8 | 0.7 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | COL | 92% | 370 | 332 | 82 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 75 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 250 | 322 | 379 | 701 | 129 | 302 | 20 | 8 | 314 | 99 | -1 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB MLE | COL | 92% | 348 | 313 | 77 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 72 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 244 | 314 | 365 | 679 | 121 | 296 | 21 | 7 | 305 | 93 | -3 | -0 | -3 | -4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | COL | 92% | 340 | 305 | 80 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 69 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 262 | 333 | 405 | 737 | 143 | 315 | 20 | 8 | 329 | 99 | -1 | -0 | -2 | -4 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB CTX | COL | 92% | 320 | 288 | 74 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 66 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 325 | 389 | 714 | 133 | 309 | 21 | 8 | 319 | 93 | -3 | -0 | -2 | -3 | +7 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1230 | 1102 | 295 | 69 | 6 | 21 | 95 | 244 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 268 | 337 | 398 | 736 | 131 | 324 | 20 | 8 | 328 | 91 | +5 | -2 | -6 | -20 | +27 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 155 | 36 | 3 | 11 | 50 | 129 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 266 | 336 | 395 | 731 | 129 | 322 | 20 | 8 | 328 | 91 | +3 | -1 | -3 | -11 | +14 | 0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4433 | 4006 | 970 | 218 | 20 | 91 | 306 | 986 | 87 | 106 | 24 | 242 | 310 | 375 | 685 | 133 | 297 | 22 | 7 | 302 | 91 | +6 | -1 | -5 | -25 | +36 | 1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 142 | 32 | 3 | 13 | 45 | 145 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 242 | 310 | 373 | 683 | 131 | 298 | 22 | 7 | 302 | 91 | +2 | -0 | -2 | -10 | +14 | 0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 354 PAwOBA .335 → .262 (−73)K% 19.2% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.21% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.63% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.11% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 2.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | ×0.957 | ×0.992 | 16.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.10% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | ×0.992 | 4.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.957 | ×0.992 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.88% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.75% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .335 → .262; ISO .188 → .143; BABIP .285 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 528 PAwOBA .333 → .284 (−49)K% 18.9% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.94% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.01% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.96% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×1.014 | ×1.003 | 21.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.92% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×1.003 | 6.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.985 | ×0.970 | ×1.014 | ×1.003 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.90% | ÷0.925 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.20% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .333 → .284; ISO .148 → .122; BABIP .327 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 374 PAwOBA .405 → .326 (−79)K% 17.1% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.11% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.70% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 6.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.21% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 2.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.20% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | ×0.988 | 15.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.20% | ÷0.947 | ×0.910 | ×0.957 | ×0.988 | 8.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.60% | ÷1.097 | ×0.880 | ×0.957 | ×0.988 | 1.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.20% | ÷1.091 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 5.22% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .405 → .326; ISO .271 → .219; BABIP .319 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 226 PAwOBA .398 → .331 (−68)K% 19.5% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.47% | ÷1.040 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.85% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.10% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×0.968 | ×1.018 | 24.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.44% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×1.018 | 7.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷1.039 | ×0.970 | ×0.968 | ×1.018 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.19% | ÷1.031 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.59% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 108, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .398 → .331; ISO .197 → .150; BABIP .381 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 376 PAwOBA .354 → .296 (−57)K% 18.9% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.88% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.24% | ÷1.021 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.86% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.19% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×0.998 | 23.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.75% | ÷1.056 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×0.998 | 6.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.39% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.981 | ×0.998 | 0.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.88% | ÷1.048 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.95% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 93, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .354 → .296; ISO .158 → .126; BABIP .337 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 116 PAwOBA .282 → .224 (−57)K% 20.7% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.69% | ÷0.966 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.52% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 11.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.22% | ÷1.054 | ×0.930 | ×1.007 | ×1.033 | 7.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.85% | ÷0.898 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | ×1.033 | 6.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.930 | ×0.970 | ×1.007 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.48% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.84% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 111, 2B 80, 3B 86, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .282 → .224; ISO .175 → .135; BABIP .159 → .147. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Beloit Snappers · 420 PAwOBA .376 → .292 (−84)K% 21.7% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.67% | ÷1.025 | ×1.350 | — | — | 28.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.10% | ÷1.054 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 8.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.81% | ÷1.049 | ×0.910 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 21.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.27% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 7.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.38% | ÷0.977 | ×0.820 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.082 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 3.99% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 110, 2B 91, 3B 95, K 105, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .376 → .292; ISO .185 → .143; BABIP .352 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AJupiter Hammerheads · 96 PAwOBA .387 → .307 (−81)K% 12.5% → 16.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.021 | ×1.360 | — | — | 16.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.46% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 7.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.39% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 27.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷1.226 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 4.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.41% | ÷0.891 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 1.24% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 99, 2B 145, 3B 99, K 104, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .387 → .307; ISO .096 → .071; BABIP .394 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .