Dean Moss

OF Charleston RiverDogs

Age 21 L/R 6'0" / 180 lbs A HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1734ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	20	A/ROKTB	331	.256/.339/.377	5	17	66	—	.220/.284/.313
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBTB	441	.225/.289/.343	9	8	78	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBTB	92	.231/.295/.356	2	2	83	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBTB	173	.234/.299/.365	4	3	87	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

K%86

Whiff%79

Z-Con%74

wRC+45

wOBA41

ISO38

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 3.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%

CompsConner Capel (age 21) · Nicky Delmonico (age 21) · Parker Meadows (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .286 / .340

PA210

HR4

K%24

BB%7

ISO119

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	300	261	67	13	0	5	30	49	4	15	7	257	341	364	705	107	294	16	10	318	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	FCL Rays	—	31	28	7	1	3	0	3	7	0	2	1	250	323	500	823	250	333	23	10	353	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	300	271	61	11	0	4	21	67	4	15	7	225	291	310	601	85	276	22	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	31	29	5	1	2	0	2	10	0	2	1	172	226	345	571	172	253	32	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	331	300	67	12	2	4	23	77	4	17	8	223	287	317	604	93	283	23	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	331	289	74	14	3	5	33	56	4	17	8	256	339	377	717	121	297	17	10	321	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	331	301	67	12	2	4	23	77	4	17	8	223	287	316	603	93	274	23	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	331	301	67	12	2	4	23	77	4	17	8	223	287	316	603	93	274	23	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TB	0%	441	402	91	16	3	9	32	107	4	8	2	225	289	343	632	119	283	24	7	284	78	-11	+1	-2	-3	+10	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	34%	269	244	56	10	2	6	20	65	3	5	1	229	293	356	649	127	284	24	7	291	83	-5	+1	-1	-2	+6	-0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	TB	48%	358	324	76	14	2	9	27	85	4	7	2	232	297	366	663	134	285	24	8	296	87	-6	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	TB	53%	414	376	88	16	3	10	31	98	4	8	2	234	300	373	673	139	287	24	7	301	90	-5	+1	-0	-2	+9	0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	TB	55%	445	404	96	17	3	12	34	104	4	8	2	236	302	378	680	142	287	23	8	303	91	-5	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	TB	56%	461	418	99	18	3	12	35	108	5	8	2	236	303	381	684	145	287	23	8	305	92	-4	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	TB	55%	466	422	99	18	3	12	36	110	5	8	2	235	302	378	680	143	286	24	8	303	91	-5	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	TB	55%	463	421	99	18	3	12	35	110	4	7	2	233	300	373	673	140	285	24	8	301	90	-6	+1	-1	-3	+10	0.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	TB	53%	453	412	94	17	2	11	34	109	4	7	3	231	297	367	664	136	284	24	8	297	87	-7	+0	-1	-3	+10	-0.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	TB	53%	443	403	91	16	2	11	33	108	4	6	3	228	293	359	653	131	282	24	7	292	84	-9	+0	-2	-3	+10	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	34%	92	84	19	3	1	2	7	22	1	2	1	231	295	356	651	125	287	24	8	292	83	-2	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	TB	48%	173	156	36	6	1	4	13	41	2	3	1	234	299	365	664	132	289	24	8	297	87	-3	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	TB	53%	218	198	46	8	1	5	16	51	2	4	1	236	302	373	674	136	290	23	7	301	90	-3	+0	-0	-1	+5	0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	TB	55%	244	221	53	9	2	6	19	57	2	4	1	237	304	377	681	140	290	23	8	304	91	-3	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	TB	56%	257	232	56	10	2	7	20	60	3	5	1	238	305	380	685	142	290	23	8	305	92	-2	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	TB	55%	256	231	56	10	2	7	20	60	3	4	1	237	304	377	681	140	290	23	8	304	91	-3	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	TB	55%	253	230	54	9	2	6	19	60	2	4	1	235	302	373	674	137	289	24	8	301	90	-3	+0	-0	-2	+5	0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	TB	53%	242	220	51	9	1	6	18	58	2	3	1	233	299	366	665	134	287	24	7	297	87	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	TB	53%	233	211	47	8	1	5	18	57	2	3	1	230	295	359	654	129	285	24	8	293	84	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1968	1783	418	72	13	48	150	466	19	32	9	234	301	370	671	136	290	24	8	300	86	-26	+3	-3	-12	+43	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	138	24	4	16	50	154	6	11	3	234	301	370	671	136	289	24	8	300	86	-9	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4313	3915	908	164	26	103	323	1025	43	85	28	232	298	366	664	134	287	24	7	296	86	-56	+6	-7	-24	+86	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	138	25	4	16	49	154	6	13	4	234	299	371	670	137	288	24	8	296	86	-9	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 300 PAwOBA .314 → .270 (−44)K% 16.3% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.33%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	22.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.030	7.11%
HBP% /PA	1.33%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	1.07%
Singles /BIP	23.11%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.015	×1.030	22.22%
Doubles /BIP	6.13%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.015	×1.030	5.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.015	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.36%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.030	1.94%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .314 → .270; ISO .107 → .089; BABIP .294 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Rays · 31 PAwOBA .344 → .229 (−115)K% 22.6% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.58%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	32.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.68%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.995	5.97%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.995	11.66%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.995	3.41%
Triples /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.995	10.23%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .344 → .229; ISO .250 → .163; BABIP .333 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Emil Brown'97-'09 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,508 PA	3.8	2,508	59	52	247*	314*	388*	-25	+8	3.5	4.0
/162	664	16	14	-6.6	+2.1	0.9	pk7: 5
#3Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ricky Ledee'98-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,307 PA	3.5	2,307	63	29	233*	311*	398*	-19	-6	2.4	3.1
/162	664	18	8	-5.5	-1.8	0.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.3	2,178	54	37	233	296	371	-13	+0	1.9	1.9
/162	664	16	11	-4.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 2
#5Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dean Moss (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	223/286/340	117	283	4	4	24%	7%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Conner Capel 2018 · A	21	39→48	47→45	49→55	42	203/257/343	140	262	14	11	28%	6%	68	-1.0	215/268/332	117	289	11	11	28%	6%	69	-0.9	226/297/349	123	283	12	19	23%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Nicky Delmonico 2013 · A	21	42→48	48→55	50→45	47	216/285/353	137	265	16	8	25%	8%	80	-0.1	211/277/350	139	287	14	7	30%	8%	77	-0.3	237/306/397	160	290	18	4	24%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Parker Meadows 2021 · A	21	40→48	41→55	46→55	42	198/255/291	92	273	9	9	30%	7%	54	-2.0	206/267/338	132	276	14	13	29%	7%	70	-0.8	229/297/399	170	285	18	21	26%	8%	94	+0.9
●Andrew Toles 2013 · A	21	43→53	45	51→60	38	217/252/345	127	271	12	13	25%	4%	65	-1.2	245/275/343	98	330	4	28	26%	3%	72	-0.7	279/314/423	145	342	13	14	22%	4%	104	+0.8
✕Jason Martin 2017 · A	21	43→52	47→60	49→50	45	219/279/359	140	286	14	13	28%	8%	79	-0.2	231/278/376	145	308	14	12	28%	6%	82	+0.0	226/292/414	187	279	24	8	28%	8%	94	+0.6
●Daylen Lile 2024 · A	21	44→54	44→55	55	43	213/273/340	127	293	10	15	30%	7%	72	-0.7	244/298/387	143	300	11	16	22%	6%	92	+0.7	254/307/414	160	300	13	17	19%	6%	101	+1.4
✕Gavin Conticello 2024 · A	21	36→46	45	48→50	40	185/254/310	126	264	13	8	34%	7%	59	-1.6	219/279/344	125	300	11	8	29%	7%	76	-0.4	230/290/358	128	308	12	7	28%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Erik Komatsu 2009 · A	21	45→55	46→45	48→50	45	225/276/358	133	262	13	7	20%	6%	78	-0.3	245/307/350	105	293	8	12	18%	7%	87	+0.4	264/332/361	97	305	7	17	15%	8%	97	+0.8
✕Addison Barger 2021 · A	21	41→49	39→55	49→45	44	198/268/289	90	270	6	5	28%	7%	59	-1.6	217/280/371	154	321	18	7	36%	7%	83	+0.1	222/291/386	164	273	18	6	25%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Yohendrick Pinango 2023 · A	21	47→54	43→50	52→50	42	231/269/337	106	282	10	9	22%	5%	70	-0.9	217/274/323	106	272	10	10	23%	7%	69	-0.9	223/292/355	132	284	14	7	25%	8%	81	-0.0
●Cody Freeman 2022 · A	21	44→54	41→50	53→50	48	212/289/312	100	263	9	11	22%	8%	73	-0.6	206/260/326	120	247	14	9	22%	6%	65	-1.2	257/301/394	137	287	15	10	16%	5%	94	+0.6
✕Enmanuel Valdez 2021 · A	22	40→47	42→55	46→45	40	199/252/305	106	273	10	9	30%	6%	57	-1.8	221/280/394	173	275	22	8	27%	7%	88	+0.5	223/287/404	181	270	24	8	27%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→50	41→45	47→55	46	197/270/297	100	265	8	11	28%	8%	62	-1.4	207/284/295	88	286	5	16	27%	9%	67	-1.1	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	35→44	42→50	53→55	51	176/278/284	108	252	10	16	32%	11%	63	-1.3	209/288/321	112	322	10	16	35%	9%	74	-0.5	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2024 · AA	22	43→46	43→55	51→50	42	213/264/326	114	277	10	11	27%	6%	66	-1.1	230/284/377	147	283	17	11	24%	7%	85	+0.2	238/297/408	169	279	21	11	23%	7%	95	+0.5
✕Carlos Guzman 2008 · A	22	39→48	43→50	53→50	44	193/274/305	112	280	11	9	33%	8%	66	-1.1	225/272/334	109	314	11	8	30%	6%	70	-0.8	237/289/332	96	308	9	3	25%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Leandro Pineda 2024 · A	22	39→49	42→50	48→45	42	191/259/302	111	275	9	6	33%	7%	59	-1.6	213/280/341	128	279	13	6	27%	7%	76	-0.4	218/291/356	137	276	14	5	25%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Felix Reyes 2022 · A	21	41→51	43→50	49→45	38	204/270/315	111	285	10	12	31%	5%	66	-1.1	200/240/310	110	252	12	7	26%	4%	53	-2.1	241/269/392	150	282	18	8	21%	3%	81	-0.0
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2014 · A	21	48→55	40→50	52→50	45	231/285/319	88	290	8	13	23%	7%	72	-0.7	244/299/352	108	296	8	10	19%	7%	84	+0.1	250/311/385	135	298	13	9	20%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Luis Matos 2023 · A	21	44→54	45→50	49→50	42	221/265/341	120	256	13	12	20%	5%	70	-0.8	240/292/380	140	260	15	12	14%	6%	89	+0.5	246/298/398	152	258	18	13	13%	6%	95	+0.7

Dean Moss

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps