Anthony Crespo — OGILVIE

Anthony Crespo P FCL Mets

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 197 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%21.7%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	3	0	3	18	3	2	0	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	3	0	3	18	3	2	0	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	3	0	3	18	3	2	0	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	12	12	50	204	53	22	2	100%	4.2	17.7%	13.5%	4.2%	1.4%	3.24	4.09	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	12	12	50	204	53	22	2	100%	4.2	17.7%	13.5%	4.2%	1.4%	3.24	4.09	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	12	12	50	204	53	22	2	100%	4.2	26.0%	10.8%	15.2%	1.0%	3.24	2.82	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	6	1	10	48	11	8	2	17%	1.6	22.9%	16.7%	6.2%	4.2%	3.72	5.56	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	6	1	10	48	11	8	2	17%	1.6	22.9%	16.7%	6.2%	4.2%	3.72	5.56	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	6	1	10	48	11	8	2	17%	1.6	22.9%	16.7%	6.2%	4.2%	3.72	6.00	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	NYM	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	21.7%	12.1%	9.6%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	47	197	45	22	6	100%	5.2	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	2.9%	4.63	4.55	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	48	202	47	21	6	100%	5.3	23.2%	10.2%	13.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.39	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	48	205	48	20	6	100%	6.1	23.6%	9.7%	13.9%	2.9%	4.37	4.29	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	48	205	49	20	6	100%	6.1	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	2.9%	4.31	4.27	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	48	202	48	20	6	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.7%	14.1%	2.9%	4.31	4.31	+0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	4	4	23	97	22	11	3	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	2.9%	4.63	4.55	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	33	139	32	14	4	100%	5.5	23.2%	10.2%	13.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.39	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	39	165	39	16	5	100%	5.6	23.6%	9.7%	13.9%	2.9%	4.37	4.29	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	42	177	42	17	5	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	2.9%	4.31	4.27	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	43	182	43	18	5	100%	6.1	23.8%	9.7%	14.1%	2.9%	4.31	4.31	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	181	765	180	76	22	100%	5.8	23.5%	9.9%	13.6%	2.9%	4.39	3.96	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	199	84	24	100%	5.8	23.5%	9.9%	13.6%	2.9%	4.39	3.96	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		21	13	63	270	50	38	5	62%	3.0	18.5%	13.9%	4.6%	1.8%	3.14	4.29	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	41	200	857	159	119	16	62%	3.0	18.5%	13.9%	4.6%	1.8%	3.14	4.29	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anthony Crespo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	21.7%	12.1%	3.0%	—	4.41	23.2%	12.9%	143	-0.39	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	86
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	85
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	84
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	83
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	82
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	82
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	82
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	82
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	80
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	80
Zach Messinger R 2022 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.30	18.5%	7.5%	314	+0.31	3.70	466	80
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	79
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	79
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	79
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	78
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	430	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	78
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	77
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	46	23.2%	10.3%	1.13	4.47
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33