Luis Aguilar — OGILVIE

Luis Aguilar P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 176 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%17.2%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	35	158	41	13	3	38%	2.7	17.6%	10.3%	7.4%	2.8%	4.84	4.45	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	35	158	41	13	3	38%	2.7	17.6%	10.3%	7.4%	2.8%	4.84	4.45	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	35	158	41	13	3	38%	2.7	25.9%	8.2%	17.7%	1.9%	4.84	2.99	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	48	204	46	17	1	38%	3.7	15.3%	10.4%	4.9%	0.7%	2.44	3.51	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	48	204	46	17	1	38%	3.7	15.3%	10.4%	4.9%	0.7%	2.44	3.51	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	48	204	46	17	1	38%	3.7	22.5%	8.3%	14.2%	0.5%	2.44	2.52	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	7	63	257	65	20	7	39%	3.5	17.7%	9.6%	8.1%	3.7%	2.98	4.86	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	7	63	257	65	20	7	39%	3.5	17.7%	9.6%	8.1%	3.7%	2.98	4.86	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	7	63	257	65	20	7	39%	3.5	25.3%	7.8%	17.5%	2.7%	2.98	3.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	11	47	13	5	4	67%	3.6	—	—	—	—	7.59	—	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	11	47	13	5	4	67%	3.6	—	—	—	—	7.59	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	HOU	3	2	11	47	13	5	4	67%	3.6	27.7%	10.6%	17.0%	8.5%	7.59	6.78	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	56	0	59	250	47	23	7	0%	1.1	18.7%	9.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.77	4.71	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	58	0	61	256	50	23	7	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.0%	10.6%	2.9%	4.63	4.57	-0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	58	0	61	259	52	23	8	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.48	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	58	0	61	259	53	23	8	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	2.9%	4.49	4.46	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	28	0	29	122	23	12	4	0%	1.0	18.7%	9.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.77	4.71	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	40	0	42	177	35	16	5	0%	1.1	19.6%	9.0%	10.6%	2.9%	4.63	4.57	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	48	0	50	211	43	19	6	0%	1.0	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.48	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	51	0	54	228	47	20	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	2.9%	4.49	4.46	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		166	0	175	738	147	66	22	0%	1.1	19.9%	8.9%	11.0%	2.9%	4.58	4.15	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	76	25	0%	1.1	19.9%	8.9%	11.0%	2.9%	4.58	4.15	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		47	19	157	666	118	67	19	40%	3.3	17.7%	10.1%	7.6%	2.9%	3.55	4.48	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	24	200	847	150	86	25	40%	3.3	17.7%	10.1%	7.6%	2.9%	3.55	4.48	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Aguilar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	17.2%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.59	19.5%	10.5%	181	-0.35	—	—	—
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	88
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	430	88
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	88
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	88
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	15.4%	8.7%	3.3%	.310	6.28	16.6%	1.7%	52	+1.57	4.59	120	87
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	86
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	86
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	86
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	85
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	85
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	85
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	84
Nick Davila R 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	18.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.297	4.04	17.2%	11.0%	196	+0.16	3.51	368	84
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	83
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	83
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	83
Ricardo Brizuela R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	20	SW	4.09	17.0%	9.1%	2.3%	.305	4.49	15.6%	6.9%	157	+0.40	3.20	246	82
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	82
A.J. Bogucki R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	22	SW	3.84	15.5%	8.4%	1.8%	.308	4.40	19.2%	8.2%	87	+0.56	3.84	142	82
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	59	19.3%	9.2%	1.13	4.67
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79