Luis Aguilar
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 22
RHP
5'11" / 176 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION11 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130120vR 111
ERA4.90
FIP4.90
K%17.2%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%7.5%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 13 | 5 | 35 | 158 | 41 | 13 | 3 | 38% | 2.7 | 17.6% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.54 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 13 | 5 | 35 | 158 | 41 | 13 | 3 | 38% | 2.7 | 25.9% | 8.2% | 17.7% | 1.9% | 4.84 | 2.99 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 13 | 5 | 48 | 204 | 46 | 17 | 1 | 38% | 3.7 | 15.3% | 10.4% | 4.9% | 0.7% | 2.44 | 3.52 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 13 | 5 | 48 | 204 | 46 | 17 | 1 | 38% | 3.7 | 22.5% | 8.3% | 14.2% | 0.5% | 2.44 | 2.52 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 7 | 63 | 257 | 65 | 20 | 7 | 39% | 3.5 | 17.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 2.98 | 4.82 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 7 | 63 | 257 | 65 | 20 | 7 | 39% | 3.5 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 17.5% | 2.7% | 2.98 | 3.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 3 | 2 | 11 | 47 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 67% | 3.6 | — | — | — | — | 7.59 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 52 | 222 | 38 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.2% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 4.90 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 63 | 269 | 51 | 27 | 11 | — | — | 19.0% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 5.35 | 4.07 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 48 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 39 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 42 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 201 | 0 | 212 | 893 | 179 | 78 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.12 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 169 | 74 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 47 | 19 | 157 | 666 | 118 | 67 | 19 | 40% | 3.3 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 3.55 | 4.49 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 24 | 200 | 847 | 150 | 86 | 25 | 40% | 3.3 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 3.55 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Aguilar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.56 | 19.5% | 10.7% | 167 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Houston Roth R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.58 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .263 | 4.63 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.05 | 3.57 | 389 | 88 |
| Huei-Sheng Lin R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.78 | 15.4% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .310 | 5.84 | 16.6% | 1.7% | 52 | +1.06 | 4.59 | 120 | 87 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 87 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 87 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.14 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .310 | 4.49 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 90 | +0.35 | 4.09 | 196 | 87 |
| Ryan Long R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.20 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .263 | 4.46 | 16.6% | 7.3% | 292 | +0.26 | 4.13 | 405 | 87 |
| Geno Encina R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.22 | 16.5% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .325 | 7.60 | 12.0% | 2.3% | 76 | +3.38 | 4.22 | 200 | 86 |
| John Matthews R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 86 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.85 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .319 | 4.99 | 18.6% | 5.0% | 83 | +1.14 | 3.85 | 156 | 85 |
| Cade Winquest R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 85 |
| Nick Davila R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.96 | 18.0% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .297 | 3.92 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 196 | -0.04 | 3.26 | 360 | 84 |
| Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .354 | 3.46 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 89 | -1.45 | 3.06 | 165 | 84 |
| Jake Christianson R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.92 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .309 | 4.78 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.86 | 3.92 | 188 | 84 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2028 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 84 |
| Matt Marsh R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.87 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 70 | -0.34 | 3.13 | 143 | 84 |
| Connor Johnstone R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.49 | 15.7% | 7.6% | 3.2% | .272 | 4.58 | 12.9% | 7.9% | 166 | +0.09 | 3.90 | 319 | 84 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 3.65 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 83 | -0.37 | 3.43 | 167 | 83 |
| A.J. Bogucki R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.95 | 15.5% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .308 | 4.30 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 87 | +0.35 | 3.95 | 142 | 83 |
| Hunter Hayes R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.52 | 13.3% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .307 | 4.64 | 16.7% | 4.2% | 149 | +0.12 | 3.33 | 210 | 82 |
| Dawson Netz R 2028 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 55 | 19.5% | 8.9% | 1.14 | 4.61 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |