Ricardo Brizuela
P
Kannapolis Cannon Ballers
+0.1
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 198 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.3 · 2029
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.9%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%10.3%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2029
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL White Sox | 15 | 4 | 38 | 162 | 48 | 15 | 3 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 1.9% | 5.02 | 3.91 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 14 | 5 | 51 | 220 | 55 | 16 | 8 | 17.0% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 4.62 | 3.91 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 20 | 12 | 71 | 286 | 69 | 13 | 3 | 17.1% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 3.57 | 3.22 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 23 | 23 | 87 | 380 | 74 | 37 | 10 | 14.4% | 11.5% | 3.9% | 4.98 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 73 | 35 | 11 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 105 | 443 | 92 | 40 | 13 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.53 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 106 | 44 | 15 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 125 | 529 | 114 | 46 | 16 | 21.5% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.41 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 128 | 542 | 117 | 47 | 16 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.42 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 128 | 542 | 117 | 47 | 17 | 21.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 126 | 530 | 113 | 46 | 16 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.49 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 109 | 46 | 16 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 117 | 496 | 104 | 45 | 16 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 113 | 476 | 98 | 43 | 16 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.71 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 93 | 42 | 15 | 20.4% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 86 | 41 | 15 | 20.0% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.92 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 96 | 407 | 80 | 40 | 15 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 5.04 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 90 | 380 | 73 | 38 | 14 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 5.09 | 5.18 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 44 | 246 | 1048 | 174 | 98 | 27 | 16.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 4.29 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 36 | 200 | 853 | 142 | 80 | 22 | 16.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 4.29 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ricardo Brizuela (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.46 | 21.2% | 12.5% | 348 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .263 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.23 | 3.77 | 350 | 94 |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 93 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.72 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.89 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 448 | 91 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 91 |
| Derek True R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .333 | 4.96 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 60 | +0.05 | 4.91 | 157 | 91 |
| Levi Thomas R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.33 | 18.1% | 11.9% | 4.1% | .328 | 5.16 | 20.8% | 3.3% | 31 | -0.17 | 5.16 | 116 | 91 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 91 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 91 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 91 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .299 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 159 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 383 | 91 |
| Carlos Sano R 2028 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 91 |
| Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 90 |
| Daniel Blair R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 90 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 90 |
| Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.78 | 20.3% | 12.6% | 3.3% | .266 | 5.31 | 14.0% | 1.0% | 106 | +0.53 | 3.85 | 291 | 89 |
| Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.99 | 19.4% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .277 | 3.30 | 25.0% | 12.6% | 123 | -1.69 | 2.58 | 314 | 89 |
| Tommy Mace R 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.53 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 4.1% | .261 | 5.07 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.46 | 4.89 | 461 | 89 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .251 | 4.78 | 18.8% | 6.8% | 146 | +0.51 | 4.27 | 238 | 89 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 89 |
| Tyler Wehrle R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.08 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 1.8% | .300 | 5.43 | 15.1% | 3.4% | 60 | +1.35 | 4.08 | 141 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.0 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.9 | $5M | +$4M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $41M | +$37M | ||