Will Childers — OGILVIE

Will Childers P Nashville Sounds

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%20.0%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	14	8	59	263	42	27	7	57%	4.2	11.8%	12.1%	-0.3%	3.2%	5.95	5.41	—
2023	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	14	8	59	263	42	27	7	57%	4.2	11.8%	12.1%	-0.3%	3.2%	5.95	5.41	—
2023	22	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	14	8	59	263	42	27	7	57%	4.2	16.0%	10.3%	5.7%	2.7%	5.95	4.59	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	52	222	56	18	4	0%	1.2	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	1.9%	4.15	3.60	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	52	222	56	18	4	0%	1.2	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	1.9%	4.15	3.60	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	52	222	56	18	4	0%	1.2	25.2%	8.1%	17.1%	1.8%	4.15	2.98	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	65	266	68	35	7	0%	1.2	20.9%	13.1%	7.7%	2.6%	3.20	4.45	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	65	266	68	35	7	0%	1.2	20.9%	13.1%	7.7%	2.6%	3.20	4.45	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	65	266	68	35	7	0%	1.2	25.6%	13.2%	12.4%	2.6%	3.20	4.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	36	1	39	169	33	13	8	3%	1.1	14.8%	8.0%	6.8%	5.3%	4.35	5.76	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	36	1	39	169	33	13	8	3%	1.1	14.8%	8.0%	6.8%	5.3%	4.35	5.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	MIL	5	0	6	23	7	0	1	0%	1.2	30.4%	0.0%	30.4%	4.3%	1.50	2.92	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	MIL	31	1	33	146	26	13	7	3%	1.1	17.8%	8.9%	8.9%	4.8%	4.86	5.36	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIL	55	0	58	246	51	28	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.77	4.76	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	55	0	57	242	50	27	7	0%	1.0	20.8%	11.3%	9.6%	2.9%	4.75	4.76	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIL	27	0	28	118	24	13	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	11.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.77	4.76	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	36	0	38	160	33	18	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.3%	9.6%	2.9%	4.75	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	279	58	32	8	0%	1.0	20.8%	11.3%	9.4%	2.9%	4.76	4.38	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	97	24	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.3%	9.4%	2.9%	4.76	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		147	9	215	920	156	100	29	6%	1.5	17.0%	10.9%	6.1%	3.1%	4.40	4.76	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	8	200	856	145	93	27	6%	1.5	17.0%	10.9%	6.1%	3.1%	4.40	4.76	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Childers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	20.0%	11.7%	2.9%	—	4.76	20.7%	9.4%	116	-0.08	—	—	—
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	93
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	90
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	89
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	87
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	87
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	87
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	87
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	87
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	87
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	87
Will Latcham R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	25	SU	4.30	18.8%	11.5%	2.4%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	134	86
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	86
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	86
Jason Ruffcorn R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	17.8%	10.7%	1.9%	.315	4.20	18.5%	8.7%	173	+0.18	4.01	280	86
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	86
Hunter Dula R 2023 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	20.1%	12.1%	3.5%	.301	4.06	19.8%	10.2%	37	-0.80	3.91	132	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.19 FIP	25	SU	5.19	18.4%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.59	16.6%	9.3%	85	-1.60	3.20	213	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	20.5%	11.4%	1.12	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99