Will Childers

P Nashville Sounds

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	43	0	52	4.15	2.98	25.2%	8.1%	—	K 20.1% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.60
2025	24	MIX2 levels	54	0	65	3.20	4.03	25.6%	13.2%	—	K 21.1% · BB 13.1% · FIP 4.43
2026	25	MIX2 levels	36	1	39	4.35	5.06	19.5%	7.7%	—	K 15.3% · BB 8.0% · FIP 5.72
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIL	3	0	3	5.08	5.08	18.2%	10.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBMIL	18	0	19	5.02	5.04	18.7%	10.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBMIL	23	0	24	5.03	5.07	19.0%	10.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsCasey Fien (age 25) · Josh Zeid (age 26) · Scott Proctor (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%18.2%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	14	8	59	263	42	27	7	57%	4.2	11.8%	12.1%	-0.3%	3.2%	5.95	5.41	—
2023	22	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	14	8	59	263	42	27	7	57%	4.2	16.0%	10.3%	5.7%	2.7%	5.95	4.59	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	52	222	56	18	4	0%	1.2	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	1.9%	4.15	3.60	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	52	222	56	18	4	0%	1.2	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	1.9%	4.15	3.60	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	52	222	56	18	4	0%	1.2	25.2%	8.1%	17.1%	1.8%	4.15	2.98	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	65	266	68	35	7	0%	1.2	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	2.6%	3.20	4.43	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	65	266	68	35	7	0%	1.2	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	2.6%	3.20	4.43	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	65	266	68	35	7	0%	1.2	25.6%	13.2%	12.4%	2.6%	3.20	4.03	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	39	169	33	13	8	3%	1.1	15.3%	8.0%	7.3%	5.3%	4.35	5.72	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	39	169	33	13	8	3%	1.1	15.3%	8.0%	7.3%	5.3%	4.35	5.72	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	1	39	169	33	13	8	3%	1.1	19.5%	7.7%	11.8%	4.7%	4.35	5.06	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIL	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	3.4%	5.08	5.08	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	42	0	44	187	35	19	6	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.1%	8.6%	3.4%	5.02	5.04	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIL	36	0	38	161	31	16	6	0%	1.1	19.0%	10.2%	8.8%	3.5%	5.03	5.07	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	18	0	19	80	15	8	3	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.1%	8.6%	3.4%	5.02	5.04	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIL	23	0	24	101	19	10	4	0%	1.0	19.0%	10.2%	8.8%	3.5%	5.03	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	0	43	180	34	18	6	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.2%	8.7%	3.4%	5.03	4.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	84	28	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.2%	8.7%	3.4%	5.03	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		147	9	215	920	158	100	29	6%	1.5	17.1%	10.9%	6.3%	3.1%	4.40	4.75	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	8	200	856	147	93	27	6%	1.5	17.1%	10.9%	6.3%	3.1%	4.40	4.75	-1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 33 IPFIP 5.36 → 5.72 (+0.36)K% 17.8% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.81%	—	×0.860	15.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.90%	—	×0.900	8.01%
HR / BF /BF	4.79%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.27%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.36 → 5.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 6 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.88 (+0.97)K% 30.4% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.810	24.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.22%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 39 IPFIP 2.99 → 3.65 (+0.67)K% 30.9% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.92%	—	×0.810	25.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.18%	—	×1.100	12.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷1.170	×1.200	2.02%

Result: FIP 2.99 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 26 IPFIP 5.47 → 5.47 (−0.00)K% 18.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.42%	—	×0.860	15.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.79%	—	×0.900	14.21%
HR / BF /BF	3.51%	÷1.111	×1.100	3.47%

Result: FIP 5.47 → 5.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 34 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.81 (+0.55)K% 26.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.00%	—	×0.810	21.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.100	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.198	×1.200	2.00%

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 18 IPFIP 2.40 → 3.14 (+0.75)K% 23.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.61%	—	×0.770	18.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×1.150	4.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷0.979	×1.250	1.77%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 2.40 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 59 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.41 (+0.90)K% 16.0% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.97%	—	×0.740	11.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.27%	—	×1.180	12.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.66%	÷1.072	×1.300	3.23%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Childers (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	18.2%	10.1%	3.4%	—	5.05	18.8%	8.7%	82	-0.03	—	—	—
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	90
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	89
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	87
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	87
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	87
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	86
Zach Bryant R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	26	SU	4.85	18.0%	9.6%	3.7%	.313	4.87	16.1%	5.0%	106	+0.02	4.51	215	86
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	86
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	85
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	85
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	85
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	85
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	85
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	85
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	84
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	84
Ryan Middendorf R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	19.1%	9.0%	4.0%	.293	4.41	12.7%	-1.1%	34	-0.43	1.27	164	84
Greg Aquino R 2004 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	17.7%	10.2%	2.7%	.196	4.57	22.3%	12.7%	94	+0.18	4.10	154	84
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	84
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	36	18.7%	10.2%	1.32	5.04
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*