John Matthews — OGILVIE

John Matthews P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%16.9%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	5	0	9	41	12	6	0	0%	1.8	29.3%	14.6%	14.6%	0.0%	5.00	2.48	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	5	0	9	41	12	6	0	0%	1.8	29.3%	14.6%	14.6%	0.0%	5.00	2.43	—
2021	23	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	24	11	68	319	80	28	9	46%	2.8	18.6%	10.4%	8.2%	3.7%	6.78	4.87	—
2021	23	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	24	11	68	319	80	28	9	46%	2.8	25.1%	8.8%	16.3%	2.8%	6.78	3.71	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	78	334	72	40	6	3%	2.4	16.5%	13.0%	3.4%	2.1%	4.37	4.51	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	78	334	72	40	6	3%	2.4	21.6%	12.0%	9.6%	1.8%	4.37	3.79	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	48	235	50	34	4	3%	1.4	16.0%	16.8%	-0.8%	2.2%	7.55	5.09	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	48	235	50	34	4	3%	1.4	16.0%	16.8%	-0.8%	2.2%	7.55	5.09	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	1	48	235	50	34	4	3%	1.4	21.3%	14.5%	6.8%	1.7%	7.55	4.23	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	28	0	26	129	19	14	3	0%	0.9	11.9%	11.9%	-0.0%	2.3%	8.06	4.85	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	28	0	26	129	19	14	3	0%	0.9	11.9%	11.9%	-0.0%	2.3%	8.06	4.85	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	28	0	26	129	19	14	3	0%	0.9	14.7%	10.9%	3.9%	2.3%	8.06	4.78	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	ARI	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	16.9%	12.3%	4.7%	2.9%	5.20	5.20	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	ARI	19	0	20	84	15	10	3	0%	1.1	17.3%	12.2%	5.2%	3.1%	5.19	5.24	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	ARI	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	17.3%	12.2%	5.2%	3.1%	5.19	5.24	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	3	1	0%	1.0	17.3%	12.2%	5.2%	3.1%	5.19	4.87	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	96	32	0%	1.1	17.3%	12.2%	5.2%	3.1%	5.19	4.87	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		124	13	228	1058	179	137	27	10%	1.8	16.9%	13.0%	4.0%	2.5%	6.19	4.71	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	11	200	927	157	120	24	10%	1.8	16.9%	13.0%	4.0%	2.5%	6.19	4.71	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Matthews (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	16.9%	12.3%	2.9%	—	5.24	17.3%	5.2%	20	+0.04	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	85
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	82
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	81
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	80
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	80
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	79
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	79
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	79
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	78
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	78
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	77
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	77
David Goforth R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	28	SU	5.09	13.6%	10.2%	3.4%	.282	4.07	14.1%	5.5%	68	-1.02	3.98	256	77
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	77
Chris Jefferson R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	16.6%	11.8%	2.3%	.333	5.65	16.4%	2.8%	46	+1.20	3.53	140	77
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	77
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	76
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	76