John Matthews
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 28
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
K%21.1%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%10.8%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 5 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 29.3% | 14.6% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 5.00 | 2.48 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 5 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 29.3% | 14.6% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 5.00 | 2.43 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 24 | 11 | 68 | 319 | 80 | 28 | 9 | 46% | 2.8 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 6.78 | 4.88 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 24 | 11 | 68 | 319 | 80 | 28 | 9 | 46% | 2.8 | 25.1% | 8.8% | 16.3% | 2.8% | 6.78 | 3.71 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 78 | 334 | 72 | 40 | 6 | 3% | 2.4 | 16.5% | 13.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 4.37 | 4.40 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 78 | 334 | 72 | 40 | 6 | 3% | 2.4 | 21.6% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 1.8% | 4.37 | 3.79 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 48 | 235 | 50 | 34 | 4 | 3% | 1.4 | 16.0% | 16.8% | -0.8% | 2.3% | 7.55 | 5.12 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 48 | 235 | 50 | 34 | 4 | 3% | 1.4 | 21.3% | 14.5% | 6.8% | 1.7% | 7.55 | 4.23 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 28 | 0 | 26 | 129 | 19 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 11.9% | 11.9% | -0.0% | 1.9% | 8.06 | 4.66 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 28 | 0 | 26 | 129 | 19 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 14.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 8.06 | 4.78 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.32 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 124 | 13 | 228 | 1058 | 179 | 137 | 26 | 10% | 1.8 | 16.9% | 13.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 6.19 | 4.66 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 109 | 11 | 200 | 927 | 157 | 120 | 23 | 10% | 1.8 | 16.9% | 13.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 6.19 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John Matthews (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.70 | 21.1% | 10.7% | 20 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 81 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 80 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 80 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 80 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 79 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 79 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 78 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.85 | 17.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 201 | 78 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 78 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 77 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 77 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.99 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.16 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.17 | 3.23 | 253 | 77 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 77 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 77 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.44 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 2.3% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.06 | 3.03 | 115 | 77 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 77 |