Keyner Martinez

P San Jose Giants

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 209 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTFG #90MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP48ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKSF	19	0	33	3.03	3.96	16.3%	11.3%	—	K 11.1% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.89
2025	20	MIX2 levels	21	11	69	2.21	1.77	34.2%	7.4%	—	K 23.9% · BB 9.0% · FIP 2.83
2026	21	ASF	22	22	94	4.61	3.27	33.6%	11.8%	—	K 24.9% · BB 13.9% · FIP 4.73
2027PROJ	22	MLBSF	17	17	90	4.53	4.53	25.0%	11.8%	0.4
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSF	12	12	63	4.25	4.16	25.4%	10.4%	0.5
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBSF	19	19	109	4.10	4.01	25.7%	9.4%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$6M2032Arb-2$10M2033Arb-3$13M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff53Control51Command56FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 80%

CompsBrandon Bailey (age 22) · Michael Knorr (age 23) · Ian Bedell (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%25.0%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$30M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4550

CMD3055

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$9M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+1.6	$9M	+$6M
2032	Arb-2	$10M	+1.6	$9M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$13M	+1.4	$7M	+$0.3M
Totals		$31M		$44M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	19	0	33	141	23	16	2	0%	1.7	11.1%	14.2%	-3.1%	1.7%	3.03	4.89	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	19	0	33	141	23	16	2	0%	1.7	11.1%	14.2%	-3.1%	1.7%	3.03	4.89	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	19	0	33	141	23	16	2	0%	1.7	16.3%	11.3%	5.0%	1.4%	3.03	3.96	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	11	69	284	97	21	3	52%	3.3	23.9%	9.0%	14.9%	1.1%	2.21	2.83	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	11	69	284	97	21	3	52%	3.3	23.9%	9.0%	14.9%	1.1%	2.21	2.83	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	11	69	284	97	21	3	52%	3.3	34.2%	7.4%	26.8%	1.1%	2.21	1.77	—
2026	21	A MLE	San Jose Giants	22	22	94	399	134	47	11	100%	4.3	24.9%	13.9%	11.0%	3.6%	4.61	4.73	—
2026	21	A MLE	San Jose Giants	22	22	94	399	134	47	11	100%	4.3	24.9%	13.9%	11.0%	3.6%	4.61	4.73	—
2026	21	A RAW	San Jose Giants	22	22	94	399	134	47	11	100%	4.3	33.6%	11.8%	21.8%	2.8%	4.61	3.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SF	17	17	90	380	95	45	11	100%	5.3	25.0%	11.8%	13.1%	3.0%	4.53	4.53	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SF	24	24	127	538	137	56	16	100%	5.3	25.4%	10.4%	15.0%	3.0%	4.37	4.28	+0.9
2029	24	MLB MLE	SF	28	28	157	661	170	62	20	100%	5.6	25.7%	9.4%	16.3%	3.0%	4.22	4.13	+1.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	SF	30	30	175	739	191	66	22	100%	5.8	25.9%	8.9%	17.0%	2.9%	4.11	4.03	+1.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	SF	29	29	175	739	192	65	22	100%	6.0	26.0%	8.8%	17.2%	2.9%	4.06	4.01	+1.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	SF	29	29	172	728	189	65	22	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.9%	17.1%	3.0%	4.06	4.05	+1.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	SF	28	28	167	706	183	64	22	100%	6.0	25.9%	9.0%	16.8%	3.1%	4.11	4.14	+1.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	SF	27	27	160	674	173	63	22	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.3%	16.4%	3.2%	4.20	4.27	+1.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	SF	25	25	150	634	160	61	22	100%	6.0	25.3%	9.6%	15.7%	3.4%	4.35	4.44	+0.8
2036	31	MLB MLE	SF	23	23	140	591	147	59	22	100%	6.1	24.9%	9.9%	15.0%	3.7%	4.53	4.65	+0.4
2037	32	MLB MLE	SF	22	22	130	547	134	56	21	100%	5.9	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	3.9%	4.74	4.87	+0.0
2038	33	MLB MLE	SF	20	20	119	502	120	54	21	100%	5.9	23.9%	10.8%	13.2%	4.2%	4.97	5.12	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	63	266	68	28	7	100%	5.2	25.4%	10.4%	15.0%	2.8%	4.25	4.16	+0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	SF	19	19	109	460	118	43	13	100%	5.7	25.7%	9.4%	16.3%	2.7%	4.10	4.01	+1.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	SF	24	24	142	600	155	53	16	100%	5.9	25.9%	8.9%	17.0%	2.7%	3.99	3.91	+1.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	SF	26	26	153	646	168	57	18	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.8%	17.2%	2.7%	3.94	3.89	+1.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	SF	26	26	156	659	171	59	18	100%	6.0	26.0%	8.9%	17.1%	2.8%	3.94	3.93	+1.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	SF	26	26	154	650	168	59	19	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.0%	16.8%	2.9%	3.98	4.01	+1.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	SF	25	25	149	629	161	58	19	100%	6.0	25.6%	9.3%	16.4%	3.0%	4.07	4.14	+1.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	SF	24	24	141	595	151	57	19	100%	5.9	25.3%	9.6%	15.7%	3.2%	4.21	4.30	+0.8
2036	31	MLB CTX	SF	22	22	133	562	140	56	19	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.9%	15.0%	3.4%	4.38	4.50	+0.4
2037	32	MLB CTX	SF	20	20	123	519	127	54	19	100%	6.2	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	3.6%	4.58	4.71	+0.0
2038	33	MLB CTX	SF	19	19	113	477	114	51	18	100%	5.9	23.9%	10.8%	13.2%	3.9%	4.80	4.95	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		242	242	1434	6056	1540	574	184	100%	5.9	25.4%	9.5%	15.9%	3.0%	4.18	3.83	+18.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	215	80	26	100%	5.9	25.4%	9.5%	15.9%	3.0%	4.18	3.83	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		62	33	196	824	183	101	20	53%	3.2	22.2%	12.2%	9.9%	2.4%	3.50	4.10	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	34	200	842	187	103	20	53%	3.2	22.2%	12.2%	9.9%	2.4%	3.50	4.10	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keyner Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	25.0%	11.8%	3.0%	—	4.13	25.7%	16.2%	459	-0.40	—	—	—
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	88
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	86
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	85
Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	20	SP-	4.00	21.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.302	3.45	22.8%	12.9%	190	-0.55	2.65	289	84
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	84
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	84
Javi Rivera R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	22.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.06	2.81	274	83
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.84	16.4%	2.8%	184	+1.25	3.59	281	82
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.85	19.4%	6.3%	322	+0.59	4.26	422	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	82
Spencer Arrighetti R 2022 · 3.97 FIP	22	SP-	3.97	24.9%	13.2%	2.4%	.357	4.09	24.4%	13.5%	305	+0.12	3.89	543	82
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	81
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	81
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	81
Anderson Brito R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	20	SP-	3.50	27.5%	11.9%	2.2%	.231	3.85	23.2%	7.4%	82	+0.35	3.28	135	80
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	80
Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	21.3%	10.9%	176	+0.51	3.89	296	80
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	80
Austin Hansen R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP-	3.81	25.1%	15.0%	1.7%	.230	7.74	19.8%	-0.3%	26	+3.93	3.81	204	80
Zach Messinger R 2022 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.28	18.7%	7.6%	314	+0.29	3.70	470	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.8	147	25.4%	9.6%	1.26	4.32
Floyd Bannister ('77-'92, 28 WAR*)	11.9	159	24.7%*	8.2%*	1.37*	4.18*
Bill Voiselle ('42-'50, 12 WAR*)	6.9	172	23.3%*	9.2%*	1.41*	4.32*
Carl Erskine ('48-'59, 19 WAR*)	8.6	143	23.7%*	8.4%*	1.30*	4.19*
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Trevor Bauer ('21)	6.5	162	25.9%	9.0%	1.11	3.79
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49