Jaron ElkinsOF Ontario Tower Buzzers
Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 193 lbs A HR +15%K -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2031
wRC+†51
AVG/OBP/SLG.171 / .247 / .276
PA320
HR6
SB22
K%42
BB%7
MLB%0%
BAT: -17.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-18BATRUN: +3.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+3RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.9 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +9.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: -0.80-0.8WAR
Scouting · nowfuture
HIT
3535
PWR
3535
SPD
6060
EYE
4535
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2030

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Arb-3$0.9M+0.4$2M+$1.0M
2032Ext / FA-deal$0.9M+0.3$1M+$0.5M
2033Ext / FA-deal$1.0M+0.2$1.0M+$0.0M
2034Ext / FA-deal$3M
2035Ext / FA-deal$0.4M
2036Ext / FA-deal$0.6M
Totals $7M $0.5M -$6M
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202419 ROKACL Dodgers 228201 33624 181198 207 .164.260.274.534 .109.367 528 .231 35 -17 +1 +0 -1 +6 -1.1
202520 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes 515460 862037 3220817 636 .187.265.289.554 .102.315 406 .244 45 -32 +10 +0 -3 +15 -1.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
202621 AOntario Tower Buzzers 8069 12113 6393 92 .174.269.348.617 .174.321 498 .268 63 -3 +1 +0 -0 +2 -0.1
ROS21 MLBLAD 240215 36715 171046 132 .167.248.279.527 .112.296 437 .247 47 -14 +2 +0 -1 +7 -0.7
TOT21 MLBLAD 320284 48828 231439 224 .169.253.296.549 .127.296 457 .252 51 -18 +3 +0 -2 +9 -0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
202722 MLB 11%LAD 565502 9518314 4419814 275 .189.273.321.594 .131.276 358 .269 64 -23 +3 +0 -3 +16 -0.7
202823 MLB 28%LAD 610541 10520316 4920515 254 .194.279.331.610 .137.278 348 .279 72 -19 +3 +0 -4 +17 -0.2
202924 MLB 45%LAD 640566 11522418 5421015 234 .203.290.352.641 .148.279 338 .285 77 -17 +3 +0 -4 +18 0.0
203025 MLB 60%LAD 657580 11822419 5721215 223 .203.291.353.645 .150.280 329 .290 80 -15 +3 +0 -4 +19 0.3
203126 MLB 77%LAD 664585 12023419 5821516 203 .205.294.356.650 .150.281 329 .291 81 -14 +3 +0 -4 +19 0.4
203227 MLB 92%LAD 665585 12023419 5921616 193 .205.295.356.651 .150.281 329 .291 81 -14 +3 +0 -4 +19 0.3
203328 MLBLAD 660581 11822419 5921515 172 .203.293.353.646 .150.280 339 .290 80 -15 +3 -1 -4 +19 0.2
203429 MLBLAD 650571 11422318 5921415 162 .200.291.343.635 .144.279 339 .288 79 -16 +2 -1 -4 +18 -0.0
203530 MLBLAD 640562 11021317 5821315 151 .196.288.335.623 .139.277 339 .285 76 -17 +3 -2 -4 +18 -0.2
203631 MLBLAD 625550 10720317 5621014 130 .195.285.335.620 .140.276 349 .281 73 -19 +3 -3 -4 +18 -0.5
203732 MLBLAD 607533 10119315 5520714 110 .189.282.321.603 .131.274 349 .277 70 -21 +2 -4 -4 +17 -0.9
203833 MLBLAD 577507 9518314 5220113 100 .187.280.318.597 .130.272 359 .271 66 -22 +2 -4 -3 +16 -1.2
203934 MLBLAD 529465 8516212 4718912 90 .183.275.303.578 .120.270 369 .265 61 -23 +2 -5 -3 +15 -1.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career 90728004 155829949233 7743136220 32342 .195.284.332.615 .137.283 359 .278 71 -299 +48 -20 -54 +257 -6.9
/ 162G 650573 11221417 5522516 233 .195.284.335.619 .140.284 358 .278 71 -21 +3 -1 -4 +18 -0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202419 ROKACL Dodgers 228186 531135 33808 207 .285.414.457.871 .172.471 3514 .391 157 +15 +1 +6 2.3
202520 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes 515447 1183059 4515317 636 .264.354.414.768 .150.375 309 .342 120 +12 +10 +15 3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Jaron Elkins (OGILVIE) 21 35 35 60 35 .171/.247/.276 .105.294 614 42% 7% 43 -1.2
Kyren Paris
2023 · AA
21 41→46 45 59→60 41 .194/.274/.319 .125.313 1226 39% 8% 65 -0.7 .193/.278/.319 .126.311 1330 39% 9% 67 -0.5 .179/.270/.309.131.284153539%10%59-0.7
Greg Golson
2007 · A
21 39→49 41→45 53→55 32 .193/.229/.296 .102.288 917 35% 4% 38 -2.6 .214/.246/.322 .108.326 1019 36% 4% 52 -1.6 .259/.313/.348.089.36853129%5%82+0.2
Yhoswar Garcia
2023 · A
21 42 38→30 61→70 39 .197/.263/.279 .082.306 536 35% 7% 49 -1.8 .204/.255/.272 .068.280 337 27% 5% 43 -2.2 .203/.249/.256.053.26625123%5%33-1.4
Junior Perez
2022 · A
21 38 44→45 53→55 36 .179/.246/.295 .117.318 1116 44% 8% 46 -2.0 .184/.257/.299 .115.319 1223 42% 8% 53 -1.5 .172/.245/.284.112.290122942%8%41-1.8
Braulio Vasquez
2022 · A
23 40 40 54→65 40 .192/.269/.282 .090.299 828 36% 7% 53 -1.5 .216/.284/.315 .099.302 727 29% 7% 67 -0.5 .225/.290/.320.095.30443225%7%66-0.3
Michael Crouse
2012 · A
21 41→40 46→50 57→55 39 .200/.264/.335 .135.304 1324 37% 7% 64 -0.8 .191/.258/.312 .121.305 1219 39% 7% 56 -1.3 .197/.265/.330.133.301131937%8%60-0.5
Monte Harrison
2017 · A
21 39→43 39→50 53→60 36 .182/.253/.263 .081.299 616 38% 6% 42 -2.3 .205/.262/.331 .126.332 1418 40% 5% 63 -0.9 .194/.262/.320.126.338174145%7%56-0.6
Miguel Hiraldo
2023 · A
22 40→47 42→45 56→55 37 .197/.248/.304 .107.299 1021 36% 6% 49 -1.8 .209/.256/.315 .106.331 1020 38% 5% 55 -1.4 .212/.260/.311.099.339102238%5%52-0.8
Jamari Baylor
2023 · A
22 40 42→45 50→55 41 .172/.280/.276 .105.337 1018 46% 10% 58 -1.2 .187/.287/.297 .110.339 1116 43% 10% 66 -0.6 .170/.275/.273.103.306121843%10%53-0.5
Kenny Wilson
2010 · A
20 36→46 37→40 56→60 38 .174/.245/.243 .070.279 427 37% 7% 33 -2.9 .185/.260/.245 .060.284 327 33% 7% 40 -2.4 .199/.267/.293.094.30582235%7%52-0.6
Frankeny Fernandez
2017 · A
20 37 38→40 54→60 42 .177/.252/.256 .078.282 519 36% 8% 39 -2.5 .189/.255/.265 .076.277 511 31% 7% 42 -2.3 .172/.238/.215.043.2393627%7%20-1.1
Dasan Brown
2022 · A
20 43→37 40 54→60 37 .196/.276/.289 .094.328 822 39% 7% 58 -1.2 .196/.265/.286 .090.312 822 37% 6% 53 -1.5 .182/.253/.265.082.28672636%6%39-1.8
Jase Bowen
2022 · A
21 37→40 42→45 53→55 35 .184/.244/.282 .097.281 1012 37% 5% 43 -2.2 .196/.251/.317 .121.287 1416 35% 5% 54 -1.4 .198/.249/.325.127.276152233%5%52-1.2
Ronaldo Urdaneta
2022 · A
23 43 41→40 57→60 40 .203/.269/.298 .096.321 924 38% 7% 56 -1.3 .188/.271/.269 .081.305 620 37% 9% 51 -1.7 .098/.228/.122.024.17602838%12%-2-1.2
Aaron Whitefield
2018 · A
21 42→45 41→40 55→60 37 .206/.255/.301 .094.296 923 32% 5% 51 -1.7 .183/.232/.260 .077.291 624 37% 5% 30 -3.1 .204/.263/.306.102.31193835%7%54-0.7
Jeffrey Baez
2015 · A
21 42→46 42→50 55→60 37 .204/.253/.310 .105.294 921 33% 5% 53 -1.5 .210/.253/.317 .107.274 1023 26% 5% 53 -1.5 .195/.249/.339.144.260181532%6%56-0.7
Bubba Thompson
2019 · A
21 45→55 42→50 55→65 32 .212/.253/.323 .111.332 921 38% 4% 56 -1.3 .198/.243/.314 .116.315 1020 39% 5% 49 -1.8 .241/.284/.369.129.334124630%4%77+0.1
Demi Orimoloye
2018 · A
21 36→38 41→45 54→55 36 .183/.230/.282 .099.265 921 34% 5% 36 -2.7 .186/.238/.285 .099.283 1017 36% 5% 40 -2.4 .179/.226/.278.098.281101738%4%29-2.2
Paulo Orlando
2007 · A
21 43→53 40→45 55 30 .204/.237/.300 .097.315 717 37% 3% 43 -2.2 .214/.246/.317 .103.300 818 31% 3% 50 -1.7 .255/.286/.368.112.31791422%3%78+0.2
Justin Trapp
2012 · A
21 42→45 38→45 54→55 38 .200/.254/.279 .078.296 520 33% 6% 45 -2.1 .214/.270/.315 .101.294 916 29% 6% 61 -1.0 .213/.269/.307.093.28991528%6%55-1.2