Jaron Elkins

OF Ontario Tower Buzzers
Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 193 lbs A HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2274ETA2030MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419ROKLAD228.285/.414/.45752044—.160/.260/.255
202520ALAA515.264/.354/.41496352—.187/.265/.283
202621A+/ALAD475.314/.410/.4981341100—.256/.335/.393
2027PROJMLE22MLBLAD585.201/.278/.313102668-0.2
2028PROJ25% MLB23MLBLAD114.204/.281/.3283575-0.1
2029PROJ36% MLB24MLBLAD182.209/.286/.3424780-0.0
Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Chase%72
BB%69
Whiff%57
Speed55
K%51
Z-Con%51
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 93%
CompsCooper Bowman (age 23) · Max Wagner (age 22) · Mikey Perez (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†68
AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .275 / .311
PA210
HR4
SB10
K%32
BB%7
ISO112
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-8BATRUN: +1.7 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+2RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.10.10.10.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M———
2035Arb-1$0.2M———
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.6M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202419 ROKACL Dodgers — 228186 531135 33808 207 285414457871 172471 3514 391 44 — — — — — —
202520 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes — 515447 1183059 4515317 636 264354414768 150375 309 342 52 — — — — — —
202621 A+Great Lakes Loons — 143118 30400 20344 70 254380288668 34353 2414 319 64 — — — — — —
202621 AOntario Tower Buzzers — 332286 9719613 33739 346 3394225841.006 245416 2210 434 116 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202419 ROK MLEACL Dodgers — 228200 32623 191178 207 160260255515 95345 518 233 44 — — — — — —
202520 A MLERancho Cucamonga Quakes — 515460 862036 3221117 636 187265283548 96313 416 245 52 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLEGreat Lakes Loons — 143124 27300 14434 70 218317242559 24327 3010 263 64 — — — — — —
202621 A MLEOntario Tower Buzzers — 332297 8115510 23999 346 273343458801 185365 307 340 116 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEACL Dodgers — 228200 32623 191178 207 160260255515 95358 518 233 44 — — — — — —
202419 ROK RAWACL Dodgers — 228186 531135 33808 207 285414457871 172471 3514 391 44 — — — — — —
202520 A MLERancho Cucamonga Quakes — 515460 862036 3221117 636 187265283548 96321 416 245 52 — — — — — —
202520 A RAWRancho Cucamonga Quakes — 515447 1183059 4515317 636 264354414768 150375 309 342 52 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 475421 10818510 3714213 416 257335394730 138360 308 317 101 — — — — — —
202621 A RAW2 teams — 475404 12723613 5310713 416 314410498907 183397 2311 399 101 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEACL Dodgers — 228199 32623 191178 207 161260256516 95345 518 233 44 — — — — — —
202520 A MLERancho Cucamonga Quakes — 515461 862036 3221117 636 187265282547 95313 416 245 52 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 475422 10818510 3714213 416 256335393729 137354 308 317 101 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 ROK MLEACL Dodgers — 228199 32623 191178 207 161260256516 95345 518 233 44 — — — — — —
202520 A MLERancho Cucamonga Quakes — 515461 862036 3221117 636 187265282547 95313 416 245 52 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 475422 10818510 3714213 416 256335393729 137354 308 317 101 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLELAD 0% 585525 10520410 4218813 264 201278313591 112288 327 269 68 -22 +4 +0 -4 +13 -0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLELAD 25% 460413 8616310 3414410 193 208285333618 125289 317 280 75 -14 +3 +1 -3 +10 -0.3
202924 MLB MLELAD 36% 504450 9718412 3815411 203 213290347637 134291 318 287 80 -12 +3 +1 -3 +11 -0.0
203025 MLB MLELAD 43% 530473 10219413 4115911 193 216293355648 140291 308 291 83 -11 +3 +1 -3 +11 0.2
203126 MLB MLELAD 47% 543485 10620414 4216111 182 217294359654 142291 308 294 85 -10 +3 +1 -3 +12 0.3
203227 MLB MLELAD 48% 547488 10720414 4316111 172 218295359654 141290 298 294 85 -10 +3 +1 -3 +12 0.3
203328 MLB MLELAD 52% 543486 10419314 4216110 152 216293354647 139289 308 291 83 -11 +2 +1 -3 +12 0.0
203429 MLB MLELAD 55% 532476 10219313 4115910 132 213290348638 135287 308 287 81 -12 +2 -0 -3 +12 -0.2
203530 MLB MLELAD 57% 520465 9818312 4015710 101 210286340626 130285 308 283 77 -14 +2 -1 -3 +11 -0.5
202823 MLB CTXLAD 25% 114103 22413 8362 51 204281328609 124282 327 276 75 -3 +1 +0 -1 +2 -0.1
202924 MLB CTXLAD 36% 182162 33614 14564 71 209286342628 133283 318 283 80 -4 +1 +0 -1 +4 -0.0
203025 MLB CTXLAD 43% 227203 43816 17685 81 212289350640 138284 307 288 83 -5 +1 +1 -1 +5 0.1
203126 MLB CTXLAD 47% 253226 49917 20755 91 214291355646 141284 308 290 85 -5 +1 +1 -2 +5 0.1
203227 MLB CTXLAD 48% 260233 49917 20775 81 214292355646 140283 308 291 85 -5 +1 +1 -2 +6 0.1
203328 MLB CTXLAD 52% 284255 541027 22845 81 212289350639 138282 308 288 83 -6 +1 +0 -2 +6 0.0
203429 MLB CTXLAD 55% 293262 541017 23886 71 210287344630 134281 308 284 81 -7 +1 -0 -2 +6 -0.1
203530 MLB CTXLAD 57% 298267 551017 23906 61 207283336619 129279 308 279 77 -8 +1 -1 -2 +6 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 19111711 35966948 14757438 588 210287343630 133284 308 286 78 -42 +8 +2 -11 +41 -0.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650582 12122316 5019513 203 208285338624 131281 308 286 78 -14 +3 +1 -4 +14 -0.1
Career— MLE — 56075005 106720040125 4241793127 26538 213291344635 131302 328 284 78 -101 +21 +5 -26 +95 -0.7
/ 162G— MLE — 650580 12323514 4920815 314 212290341632 129301 328 284 78 -15 +3 +1 -4 +14 -0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AOntario Tower Buzzers · 332 PAwOBA .425 → .340 (−85)K% 22.0% → 29.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.99%÷1.000×1.360——29.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.94%÷1.000×0.690——6.86%
HBP% /PA2.71%—×0.780——2.11%
Singles /BIP27.70%÷1.000×0.920×0.991—25.25%
Doubles /BIP8.92%÷1.000×0.830×0.991—7.33%
Triples /BIP2.82%÷1.000×0.910×0.991—2.54%
Home runs /BIP6.10%÷1.000×0.800——4.88%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .425 → .340; ISO .245 → .192; BABIP .416 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Great Lakes Loons · 143 PAwOBA .314 → .263 (−51)K% 23.8% → 30.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.78%÷1.000×1.270——30.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.99%÷1.000×0.710—×1.01210.05%
HBP% /PA2.80%—×0.790—×1.0122.24%
Singles /BIP30.95%÷1.000×0.920×1.011×1.01229.13%
Doubles /BIP4.76%÷1.000×0.810×1.011×1.0123.95%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850×1.011×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0120.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .314 → .263; ISO .034 → .027; BABIP .353 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 515 PAwOBA .337 → .245 (−92)K% 29.7% → 40.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.71%÷0.987×1.360——40.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.74%÷0.981×0.690—×1.0156.24%
HBP% /PA3.30%—×0.780—×1.0152.61%
Singles /BIP25.17%÷1.004×0.920×0.950×1.01522.23%
Doubles /BIP10.20%÷1.054×0.830×0.950×1.0157.75%
Triples /BIP1.70%÷1.150×0.910×0.950×1.0151.30%
Home runs /BIP3.06%÷1.055×0.800—×1.0152.36%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 101, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .337 → .245; ISO .150 → .101; BABIP .375 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Dodgers · 228 PAwOBA .383 → .233 (−150)K% 35.1% → 51.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.09%÷0.984×1.440——51.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.47%÷1.070×0.620—×0.9958.35%
HBP% /PA3.51%—×0.720—×0.9952.51%
Singles /BIP32.08%÷1.011×0.820×0.950×0.99524.58%
Doubles /BIP10.38%÷1.010×0.720×0.950×0.9956.99%
Triples /BIP2.83%÷0.967×0.720×0.950×0.9951.99%
Home runs /BIP4.72%÷0.942×0.780—×0.9953.89%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 102, 3B 93, K 97, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .383 → .233; ISO .172 → .105; BABIP .471 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).