Jaron Elkins — OGILVIE

Jaron ElkinsOF Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 193 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION291 act + 194 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .292 / .353

PA194

HR5

SB13

K%35

BB%7

BABIP317

ISO139

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.3M
2036	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.1M
Totals		$9M		$23M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	228	201	33	6	2	4	18	119	8	20	7	164	260	274	534	109	367	52	8	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	228	186	53	11	3	5	33	80	8	20	7	285	414	457	871	172	471	35	14	391	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	515	459	83	18	2	7	33	211	17	63	6	181	261	275	536	94	308	41	6	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	515	447	118	30	5	9	45	153	17	63	6	264	354	414	768	150	375	30	9	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	LAD	—	291	258	68	13	3	11	21	94	9	27	6	264	340	465	805	202	368	32	7	343	121	+7	+3	+0	-2	+8	1.7
YTD	21	A	LAD	—	291	248	83	17	4	13	30	70	9	27	6	335	424	593	1.016	258	419	24	10	437	193	+30	+3	+0	-2	+8	4.1
ROS	21	A	LAD	0%	194	173	37	7	1	5	14	68	5	13	2	214	292	353	644	139	317	35	7	292	82	-4	+2	+0	-1	+5	0.2
ROS	21	MLB	LAD	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		313	—	—	269	64	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	21	A	LAD	—	291	259	68	13	3	11	21	94	9	27	6	263	340	463	804	201	365	32	7	343	121	+7	+3	+0	-2	+8	1.7
TOT	21	A	LAD	—	485	431	105	20	4	16	35	162	14	40	8	244	321	420	741	176	348	33	7	323	105	+3	+5	+0	-3	+14	1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	LAD	34%	568	510	112	22	4	15	40	195	13	24	4	220	293	367	660	147	316	34	7	294	83	-11	+3	+0	-3	+16	0.5
2028	23	MLB	LAD	48%	597	535	119	23	4	17	44	197	13	23	4	222	297	376	673	153	314	33	7	301	88	-8	+3	+0	-4	+17	0.9
2029	24	MLB	LAD	53%	615	551	124	24	4	18	46	198	13	21	4	225	300	381	681	156	314	32	7	305	92	-6	+3	+0	-4	+17	1.1
2030	25	MLB	LAD	55%	627	560	128	25	4	19	48	200	14	20	4	229	305	389	695	161	313	32	8	308	94	-4	+2	+0	-4	+18	1.2
2031	26	MLB	LAD	56%	634	566	129	25	4	19	49	202	14	19	4	228	305	387	692	159	313	32	8	309	94	-4	+2	+0	-4	+18	1.3
2032	27	MLB	LAD	55%	634	566	129	25	4	19	49	202	14	18	3	228	305	387	692	159	313	32	8	309	94	-4	+2	+0	-4	+18	1.3
2033	28	MLB	LAD	55%	629	560	127	24	4	19	50	202	14	17	3	227	306	386	692	159	312	32	8	308	94	-5	+2	-1	-4	+18	1.1
2034	29	MLB	LAD	53%	619	552	124	24	4	18	49	200	13	15	3	225	303	380	683	156	311	32	8	306	92	-6	+2	-1	-4	+18	0.9
2035	30	MLB	LAD	53%	609	543	121	23	4	18	48	198	13	14	3	223	301	379	681	157	310	33	8	303	90	-7	+2	-2	-4	+17	0.6
2036	31	MLB	LAD	56%	595	530	116	22	3	17	47	195	13	13	2	219	298	368	666	149	307	33	8	299	87	-9	+2	-3	-4	+17	0.4
2037	32	MLB	LAD	54%	576	513	111	21	3	16	46	191	12	11	2	216	296	363	659	146	304	33	8	293	83	-11	+1	-4	-3	+16	-0.1
2027	22	MLB	LAD	34%	195	174	37	7	1	5	14	67	5	8	2	213	290	351	641	138	311	34	7	273	67	-7	+1	+0	-1	+6	-0.2
2028	23	MLB	LAD	48%	289	260	57	11	2	8	21	95	6	11	2	219	293	369	662	150	310	33	7	281	73	-9	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
2029	24	MLB	LAD	53%	324	290	64	12	2	9	24	104	7	11	2	221	296	369	665	148	309	32	7	285	77	-9	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.0
2030	25	MLB	LAD	55%	343	307	68	13	2	10	26	109	7	11	2	221	297	375	672	153	309	32	8	288	79	-8	+1	+0	-2	+10	0.1
2031	26	MLB	LAD	56%	353	315	70	13	2	10	27	112	8	11	2	222	300	371	671	149	309	32	8	289	79	-8	+1	+0	-2	+10	0.1
2032	27	MLB	LAD	55%	349	311	69	13	2	10	27	111	8	10	2	222	301	373	674	151	308	32	8	289	79	-8	+1	+0	-2	+10	0.1
2033	28	MLB	LAD	55%	344	307	68	13	2	10	27	110	7	9	2	221	299	375	674	153	308	32	8	288	78	-8	+1	-0	-2	+10	-0.0
2034	29	MLB	LAD	53%	330	294	64	12	2	9	26	106	7	8	2	218	297	364	661	146	307	32	8	286	77	-9	+1	-1	-2	+9	-0.1
2035	30	MLB	LAD	53%	320	285	63	12	2	9	25	104	7	7	1	221	300	372	672	151	306	32	8	283	75	-9	+1	-1	-2	+9	-0.2
2036	31	MLB	LAD	56%	336	299	64	12	2	9	27	110	7	7	1	214	294	358	652	144	303	33	8	279	72	-11	+1	-2	-2	+10	-0.4
2037	32	MLB	LAD	54%	313	278	59	11	2	8	25	104	7	6	1	212	294	353	646	140	299	33	8	274	68	-11	+1	-2	-2	+9	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3496	3121	683	129	21	97	269	1132	76	99	19	219	297	367	664	148	306	32	8	284	75	-97	+12	-6	-21	+99	-1.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	127	24	4	18	50	210	14	18	4	219	297	367	664	148	306	32	8	284	75	-18	+2	-1	-4	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	7640	6819	1493	289	47	211	581	2578	176	291	51	219	297	368	665	149	315	34	8	296	85	-129	+38	-10	-46	+216	7.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	127	25	4	18	49	219	15	25	4	219	296	369	665	150	315	34	8	296	85	-11	+3	-1	-4	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	228	186	53	11	3	5	33	80	8	20	7	285	414	457	871	172	471	35	14	391	157	+15	+1	—	—	+6	2.3
2025	20	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	515	447	118	30	5	9	45	153	17	63	6	264	354	414	768	150	375	30	9	342	120	+12	+10	—	—	+15	3.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,817	107	115	221	295	373	-23	+0	4.1	4.1
	/162	664	19	20	221	295	373	-4.0	+0.0	0.7	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jaron Elkins (OGILVIE)	21	35	35	60	35	244/321/420	176	348	16	40	33%	7%	105	+1.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Braulio Vasquez 2022 · A	23	40	40→45	55→65	40	189/270/275	87	300	7	31	37%	8%	53	-1.5	224/290/323	99	311	6	26	28%	7%	72	-0.2	245/309/346	101	327	3	32	24%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Jon Matthews 2012 · A	21	42	36→40	54→60	40	196/256/265	69	282	2	18	30%	6%	42	-2.3	206/267/279	73	292	4	23	29%	6%	50	-1.7	233/305/297	64	314	3	21	24%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Samad Taylor 2019 · A	21	38→48	41→50	54→65	45	186/250/288	102	245	7	22	27%	7%	46	-2.0	187/263/301	114	290	10	25	36%	8%	56	-1.3	239/314/383	144	329	16	46	30%	9%	96	+0.9
✕Tyler Goeddel 2014 · A	21	42→50	40→45	59→55	39	204/254/302	98	293	6	20	31%	6%	50	-1.7	223/280/337	114	302	9	18	28%	6%	71	-0.3	225/287/343	117	297	10	18	26%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Sean Henry 2007 · A	21	41→51	45→50	56→55	43	207/263/331	123	274	12	24	28%	7%	62	-0.9	240/293/369	129	295	11	17	22%	6%	85	+0.7	248/301/378	130	297	12	17	20%	6%	88	+0.7
●Esteury Ruiz 2021 · A	22	41→51	42→50	56→70	36	198/250/300	102	307	9	27	37%	6%	49	-1.8	246/312/394	148	316	16	52	26%	6%	100	+1.7	268/342/410	142	331	14	74	22%	7%	114	+1.8
✕Jeffrey Baez 2015 · A	21	41→43	42→50	54→60	36	199/247/305	106	301	9	19	36%	5%	48	-1.9	203/245/305	102	270	10	23	28%	5%	47	-1.9	196/251/342	146	261	19	15	32%	6%	58	-0.6
✕Jay Allen II 2023 · A	20	43→40	40	59→55	45	204/296/300	96	298	7	32	31%	8%	70	-0.3	186/279/271	85	278	7	28	33%	8%	56	-1.3	192/275/286	94	267	10	24	30%	7%	55	-1.0
●Greg Golson 2007 · A	21	40→50	41→45	53→55	32	196/232/299	103	296	8	17	36%	4%	40	-2.4	215/247/323	108	328	10	19	36%	4%	53	-1.5	267/319/357	90	377	5	31	28%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Daz Cameron 2018 · A	21	39→45	47→55	52→55	40	199/261/337	138	279	13	19	33%	6%	63	-0.8	203/270/332	129	293	11	17	33%	7%	66	-0.6	217/290/380	163	271	19	25	27%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Yhoswar Garcia 2023 · A	21	41	38→30	62→70	39	194/261/276	82	302	5	38	35%	7%	47	-1.9	201/252/267	66	276	3	38	27%	5%	40	-2.4	195/242/247	52	259	1	51	24%	5%	28	-1.5
✕Maximo Rivera 2014 · A	21	46	39→45	53→60	43	222/276/307	85	284	7	21	24%	6%	61	-1.0	213/264/284	71	297	4	10	28%	6%	50	-1.8	203/245/250	47	280	3	7	27%	5%	29	-0.9
●Derek Hill 2017 · A	21	43→51	36→50	59→60	37	203/247/272	70	301	3	25	32%	5%	39	-2.5	194/246/270	76	309	5	27	36%	6%	39	-2.5	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	45→42	42→50	56→50	40	218/268/331	113	302	8	15	30%	6%	64	-0.8	215/273/337	122	287	11	12	27%	6%	68	-0.5	225/274/377	152	279	18	13	26%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Aaron Whitefield 2018 · A	21	40→47	41→40	55→60	36	198/249/291	93	296	9	23	35%	5%	46	-2.0	179/228/252	73	297	5	24	39%	5%	27	-3.3	209/268/310	101	317	9	38	35%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Kenny Wilson 2010 · A	20	35→45	37→40	56→60	37	170/241/239	69	279	4	27	38%	6%	30	-3.1	179/252/238	59	281	3	27	34%	7%	34	-2.8	195/262/289	94	302	8	22	35%	6%	49	-0.7
✕Christian Cairo 2022 · A	21	39→46	40	53→60	46	187/281/276	89	288	7	16	34%	10%	58	-1.2	194/293/274	80	293	6	18	32%	11%	63	-0.9	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	40→50	57→55	42	201/257/293	92	281	6	22	30%	7%	50	-1.8	232/286/367	135	290	12	21	23%	7%	82	+0.5	254/312/374	120	299	11	11	18%	7%	92	+1.0
✕Sergio Garcia 2012 · AAA	21	38	42→45	54→60	41	193/248/290	97	267	11	22	31%	6%	45	-2.1	213/253/326	113	295	12	27	31%	4%	56	-1.3	231/255/354	123	300	13	17	28%	2%	62	-0.4
✕Daniel Carroll 2011 · A	22	43→44	41→45	55→60	33	204/261/299	95	319	9	23	37%	4%	53	-1.5	215/287/329	114	325	12	30	35%	7%	72	-0.2	195/280/293	98	302	10	35	35%	7%	59	-0.7