Joshua Báez
RF Memphis Redbirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+/ASTL | 321 | .245/.338/.408 | 11 | 29 | 54 | — | .183/.265/.295 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+STL | 499 | .287/.386/.500 | 20 | 54 | 103 | — | .244/.327/.413 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAASTL | 461 | .256/.331/.573 | 34 | 21 | 86 | — | .203/.261/.430 |
| 2026 | 23 | MLBSTL | 108 | .230/.280/.510 | 7 | 2 | 121 | -0.1 | |
| 2027PROJ49% MLB | 24 | MLBSTL | 76 | .217/.278/.426 | 4 | 4 | 98 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ61% MLB | 25 | MLBSTL | 323 | .219/.281/.427 | 15 | 17 | 100 | 0.6 | |
| 2029PROJ66% MLB | 26 | MLBSTL | 342 | .220/.283/.425 | 16 | 18 | 100 | 0.7 |
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 95 | 76 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 28 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 158 | 312 | 303 | 614 | 145 | 208 | 29 | 15 | 285 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 79 | 63 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 30 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 286 | 423 | 540 | 963 | 254 | 484 | 38 | 14 | 418 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 43 | 38 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 237 | 326 | 395 | 720 | 158 | 348 | 33 | 12 | 324 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 358 | 298 | 65 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 45 | 122 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 218 | 344 | 383 | 726 | 164 | 337 | 34 | 13 | 329 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 260 | 227 | 51 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 24 | 97 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 225 | 309 | 388 | 696 | 163 | 333 | 37 | 9 | 309 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 61 | 50 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 340 | 459 | 500 | 959 | 160 | 500 | 28 | 13 | 430 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 331 | 273 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 41 | 67 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 271 | 380 | 509 | 889 | 238 | 294 | 20 | 12 | 383 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 168 | 145 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 36 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 317 | 399 | 483 | 882 | 166 | 400 | 21 | 11 | 390 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 108 | 100 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 280 | 510 | 790 | 280 | 262 | 31 | 4 | 340 | 121 | +3 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 461 | 410 | 105 | 22 | 3 | 34 | 37 | 136 | 9 | 21 | 3 | 256 | 331 | 573 | 904 | 317 | 290 | 30 | 8 | 386 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 108 | 100 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 280 | 510 | 790 | 280 | 262 | 31 | 4 | 340 | 116 | +2 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +2 | -0.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 95 | 82 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 110 | 215 | 195 | 410 | 85 | 166 | 42 | 8 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 79 | 66 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 42 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 197 | 321 | 364 | 684 | 167 | 441 | 53 | 10 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 43 | 40 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 150 | 209 | 275 | 484 | 125 | 261 | 47 | 7 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 358 | 312 | 46 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 175 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 147 | 251 | 256 | 507 | 109 | 289 | 49 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 260 | 233 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 122 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 167 | 242 | 279 | 521 | 112 | 289 | 47 | 7 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 61 | 52 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 250 | 361 | 365 | 726 | 115 | 420 | 39 | 10 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 331 | 286 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 82 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 238 | 327 | 420 | 747 | 182 | 273 | 25 | 9 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 168 | 152 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 257 | 327 | 401 | 729 | 145 | 341 | 29 | 8 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 108 | 100 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 33 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 290 | 550 | 840 | 310 | 262 | 31 | 4 | 347 | 121 | +3 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 461 | 423 | 86 | 18 | 3 | 24 | 24 | 163 | 9 | 21 | 3 | 203 | 261 | 430 | 691 | 227 | 251 | 35 | 5 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 95 | 82 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 110 | 215 | 195 | 410 | 85 | 186 | 42 | 8 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Cardinals | — | 95 | 76 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 28 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 158 | 312 | 303 | 614 | 145 | 208 | 29 | 15 | 285 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 122 | 106 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 62 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 179 | 281 | 330 | 611 | 151 | 381 | 51 | 9 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 122 | 101 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 44 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 267 | 388 | 485 | 874 | 218 | 426 | 36 | 13 | 385 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 358 | 312 | 46 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 175 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 147 | 251 | 256 | 507 | 109 | 304 | 49 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 358 | 298 | 65 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 45 | 122 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 218 | 344 | 383 | 726 | 164 | 337 | 34 | 13 | 329 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 286 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 146 | 7 | 29 | 5 | 182 | 262 | 294 | 556 | 112 | 326 | 45 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 321 | 277 | 68 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 32 | 114 | 7 | 29 | 5 | 245 | 338 | 408 | 745 | 162 | 368 | 36 | 10 | 332 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 499 | 438 | 107 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 43 | 130 | 11 | 54 | 9 | 244 | 327 | 413 | 740 | 169 | 304 | 26 | 9 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 499 | 418 | 120 | 23 | 3 | 20 | 59 | 103 | 11 | 54 | 9 | 287 | 386 | 500 | 886 | 213 | 331 | 21 | 12 | 385 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 569 | 523 | 109 | 24 | 3 | 32 | 28 | 196 | 12 | 23 | 4 | 208 | 265 | 449 | 714 | 241 | 256 | 34 | 5 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 569 | 510 | 128 | 29 | 3 | 41 | 41 | 169 | 12 | 23 | 4 | 251 | 321 | 561 | 882 | 310 | 284 | 30 | 7 | 377 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 95 | 84 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 107 | 215 | 190 | 406 | 83 | 166 | 42 | 8 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 122 | 106 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 62 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 179 | 281 | 330 | 611 | 151 | 378 | 51 | 9 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 358 | 312 | 46 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 175 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 147 | 251 | 256 | 507 | 109 | 289 | 49 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 287 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 146 | 7 | 29 | 5 | 181 | 262 | 293 | 555 | 111 | 314 | 45 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 499 | 442 | 107 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 43 | 130 | 11 | 54 | 9 | 242 | 327 | 410 | 737 | 167 | 296 | 26 | 9 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 569 | 524 | 109 | 24 | 3 | 32 | 28 | 196 | 12 | 23 | 4 | 208 | 265 | 448 | 713 | 240 | 253 | 34 | 5 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 287 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 146 | 7 | 29 | 5 | 181 | 262 | 293 | 555 | 111 | 314 | 45 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 499 | 442 | 107 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 43 | 130 | 11 | 54 | 9 | 242 | 327 | 410 | 737 | 167 | 296 | 26 | 9 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 569 | 524 | 109 | 24 | 3 | 32 | 28 | 196 | 12 | 23 | 4 | 208 | 265 | 448 | 713 | 240 | 253 | 34 | 5 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | STL | 49% | 380 | 348 | 76 | 15 | 2 | 19 | 22 | 117 | 7 | 21 | 4 | 219 | 280 | 437 | 717 | 218 | 266 | 31 | 6 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +3 | +1 | -4 | +8 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | STL | 49% | 76 | 71 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 217 | 278 | 426 | 704 | 208 | 268 | 30 | 5 | 308 | 98 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | STL | 61% | 533 | 486 | 108 | 21 | 3 | 26 | 32 | 161 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 221 | 283 | 438 | 721 | 217 | 268 | 30 | 6 | 315 | 100 | -0 | +4 | +1 | -6 | +12 | 1.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | STL | 66% | 518 | 471 | 104 | 20 | 2 | 25 | 32 | 155 | 10 | 27 | 5 | 222 | 285 | 436 | 721 | 214 | 269 | 30 | 6 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +3 | +1 | -6 | +11 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | STL | 67% | 504 | 458 | 102 | 20 | 2 | 24 | 32 | 149 | 9 | 26 | 5 | 222 | 286 | 432 | 718 | 210 | 269 | 30 | 6 | 314 | 99 | -1 | +3 | +1 | -5 | +11 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | STL | 67% | 490 | 447 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 23 | 31 | 144 | 9 | 23 | 4 | 221 | 285 | 426 | 711 | 205 | 269 | 29 | 6 | 312 | 97 | -2 | +3 | +0 | -5 | +11 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | STL | 66% | 477 | 435 | 96 | 19 | 2 | 21 | 31 | 140 | 8 | 20 | 4 | 220 | 284 | 418 | 702 | 199 | 268 | 29 | 6 | 309 | 95 | -3 | +2 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | STL | 65% | 465 | 424 | 92 | 18 | 2 | 20 | 30 | 138 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 216 | 280 | 410 | 690 | 194 | 265 | 30 | 6 | 303 | 92 | -5 | +2 | -1 | -5 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | STL | 61% | 323 | 295 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 15 | 19 | 98 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 219 | 281 | 427 | 708 | 207 | 269 | 30 | 6 | 310 | 100 | -0 | +2 | +1 | -3 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | STL | 66% | 342 | 312 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 16 | 21 | 102 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 220 | 283 | 425 | 709 | 205 | 270 | 30 | 6 | 311 | 100 | -0 | +2 | +1 | -4 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | STL | 67% | 338 | 308 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 15 | 21 | 100 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 220 | 284 | 421 | 705 | 201 | 271 | 30 | 6 | 310 | 99 | -0 | +2 | +1 | -4 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | STL | 67% | 330 | 300 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 97 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 220 | 284 | 416 | 699 | 196 | 270 | 29 | 6 | 308 | 97 | -1 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | STL | 66% | 315 | 287 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 20 | 93 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 218 | 282 | 408 | 691 | 190 | 270 | 30 | 6 | 304 | 95 | -2 | +2 | -0 | -3 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | STL | 65% | 304 | 277 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 90 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 215 | 278 | 400 | 679 | 185 | 267 | 30 | 6 | 299 | 92 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2060 | 1879 | 412 | 87 | 9 | 92 | 125 | 613 | 37 | 94 | 17 | 219 | 281 | 422 | 703 | 203 | 270 | 30 | 6 | 309 | 88 | -5 | +12 | +1 | -27 | +45 | 2.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 130 | 27 | 3 | 29 | 39 | 193 | 12 | 30 | 5 | 219 | 281 | 422 | 703 | 202 | 269 | 30 | 6 | 309 | 88 | -1 | +4 | +0 | -9 | +14 | 0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5106 | 4610 | 974 | 195 | 25 | 212 | 342 | 1684 | 106 | 300 | 52 | 211 | 281 | 402 | 684 | 191 | 277 | 33 | 7 | 299 | 88 | -8 | +19 | +2 | -40 | +70 | 4.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 124 | 25 | 3 | 27 | 44 | 214 | 13 | 38 | 7 | 211 | 281 | 402 | 683 | 191 | 276 | 33 | 7 | 299 | 88 | -2 | +4 | +0 | -8 | +14 | 0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 461 PAwOBA .377 → .296 (−81)K% 29.5% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 15.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 6.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 9.12% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .377 → .296; ISO .317 → .233; BABIP .290 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 331 PAwOBA .381 → .328 (−53)K% 20.2% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.24% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.39% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 9.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.42% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 2.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.39% | ÷0.966 | ×0.920 | ×0.959 | ×1.042 | 19.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.28% | ÷0.916 | ×0.840 | ×0.959 | ×1.042 | 6.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.959 | ×1.042 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.77% | ÷1.105 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 5.86% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .381 → .328; ISO .238 → .195; BABIP .294 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 168 PAwOBA .380 → .306 (−74)K% 21.4% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷0.951 | ×1.270 | — | — | 28.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷1.027 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.36% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×0.960 | ×1.012 | 25.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.34% | ÷1.083 | ×0.810 | ×0.960 | ×1.012 | 5.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.83% | ÷0.926 | ×0.850 | ×0.960 | ×1.012 | 1.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.67% | ÷0.857 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.46% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 102, 2B 117, 3B 85, K 90, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .380 → .306; ISO .166 → .137; BABIP .400 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 260 PAwOBA .304 → .234 (−70)K% 37.3% → 47.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.31% | ÷1.006 | ×1.270 | — | — | 47.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.23% | ÷0.930 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 7.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.15% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 23.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 4.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 6.37% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .304 → .234; ISO .163 → .119; BABIP .333 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 61 PAwOBA .420 → .306 (−114)K% 27.9% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.87% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.11% | ÷0.999 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.92% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 3.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 29.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.15% | ÷1.153 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 11.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.946 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.036 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.38% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 108, 2B 131, 3B 89, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .420 → .306; ISO .160 → .106; BABIP .500 → .420. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 APalm Beach Cardinals · 358 PAwOBA .322 → .227 (−96)K% 34.1% → 48.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.08% | ÷0.950 | ×1.360 | — | — | 48.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.35% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.32% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 17.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.36% | ÷1.007 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 9.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.023 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 1.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.98% | ÷1.010 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.25% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 100, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 90, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .322 → .227; ISO .164 → .109; BABIP .337 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 APalm Beach Cardinals · 79 PAwOBA .413 → .300 (−113)K% 38.0% → 53.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.97% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 53.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.92% | ÷1.029 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 9.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.06% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 4.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 26.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.15% | ÷1.076 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 12.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.03% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 3.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.880 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 8.63% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 97, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .413 → .300; ISO .254 → .182; BABIP .484 → .441. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Cardinals · 43 PAwOBA .316 → .194 (−122)K% 32.6% → 46.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.56% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 46.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.63% | ÷0.976 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.021 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 16.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.074 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 8.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.127 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 2.90% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 104, 2B 115, 3B 100, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .316 → .194; ISO .158 → .089; BABIP .348 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).