Jay Allen II — OGILVIE

Jay Allen IIOF Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 200 lbs AA HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION323 act + 215 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .286 / .317

PA215

HR4

SB9

K%29

BB%7

BABIP283

ISO109

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2031	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.4M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	75	64	17	2	1	2	5	18	5	14	1	266	365	422	787	156	333	24	7	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	75	61	20	3	1	3	8	12	5	14	1	328	446	557	1.003	230	362	16	11	436	192	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	2 teams	—	383	325	61	12	3	3	34	123	16	43	10	188	296	271	567	83	287	32	9	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	2 teams	—	383	315	71	14	4	3	44	92	16	43	10	225	349	324	673	98	305	24	11	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	129	110	14	2	0	2	10	62	8	16	5	127	250	200	450	73	261	48	8	196	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	129	104	17	3	0	2	16	44	8	16	5	163	320	250	570	87	259	34	12	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	456	379	63	9	1	5	48	131	23	35	10	166	298	235	533	69	235	29	11	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	456	362	81	10	2	10	65	98	23	35	10	224	376	345	721	122	275	21	14	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	482	441	90	14	3	7	25	149	9	21	10	204	261	297	558	93	286	31	5	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	482	423	96	19	3	8	43	118	9	21	10	227	312	343	654	116	291	24	9	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	CIN	—	323	285	65	11	1	9	21	94	11	15	4	228	306	368	674	140	303	29	7	291	81	-7	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.2
YTD	23	AA	CIN	—	323	276	73	13	1	10	30	73	11	15	4	264	360	428	787	163	321	23	9	348	125	+9	+1	+0	-2	+9	1.8
ROS	23	AA	CIN	2%	215	192	40	7	1	4	15	62	6	9	3	208	286	317	603	109	278	29	7	275	69	-8	+1	+1	-1	+6	-0.2
ROS	23	MLB	CIN	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		281	25	0	256	54	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	CIN	—	327	289	66	11	1	9	21	95	11	15	4	228	305	367	672	138	303	29	6	291	81	-7	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.2
TOT	23	AA	CIN	—	538	477	105	18	2	13	36	156	17	24	7	220	298	348	646	128	295	29	7	285	76	-15	+2	+1	-3	+15	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CIN	31%	539	482	102	17	2	12	38	151	14	19	6	212	288	330	618	118	280	28	7	283	75	-15	+1	+1	-3	+15	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	CIN	45%	553	494	107	18	2	13	40	152	14	19	6	217	294	340	634	123	281	27	7	288	79	-13	+1	+1	-3	+16	0.2
2029	26	MLB	CIN	51%	558	499	109	19	2	14	41	152	13	19	6	218	295	349	643	130	282	27	7	291	81	-12	+1	+1	-3	+16	0.4
2030	27	MLB	CIN	53%	557	497	109	19	2	14	42	151	13	19	6	219	297	350	647	131	282	27	8	292	82	-11	+1	+1	-3	+16	0.4
2031	28	MLB	CIN	53%	554	494	108	18	2	14	42	151	13	18	6	219	297	348	645	130	281	27	8	291	81	-12	+1	+1	-3	+16	0.3
2027	24	MLB	CIN	31%	167	149	32	5	1	4	12	47	4	6	2	215	291	342	633	128	283	28	7	267	62	-7	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
2028	25	MLB	CIN	45%	246	220	48	8	1	6	18	68	6	9	3	218	295	345	641	127	284	28	7	273	67	-9	+1	+1	-1	+7	-0.2
2029	26	MLB	CIN	51%	284	254	56	10	1	7	21	77	7	10	3	220	298	350	648	130	284	27	7	277	70	-10	+1	+1	-2	+8	-0.2
2030	27	MLB	CIN	53%	292	261	58	10	1	8	22	79	7	10	3	222	300	360	660	138	285	27	8	278	71	-10	+1	+1	-2	+8	-0.2
2031	28	MLB	CIN	53%	296	264	58	10	1	8	23	81	7	9	3	220	299	356	655	136	284	27	8	277	70	-10	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1289	1152	253	43	5	33	96	353	31	44	14	220	297	352	649	132	285	27	7	275	69	-46	+3	+3	-8	+37	-1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	129	22	3	17	48	178	16	22	7	222	300	358	658	136	288	27	7	275	69	-23	+2	+2	-4	+18	-0.6
Career	—			—	4501	3977	820	137	19	90	340	1302	134	232	69	206	291	318	609	112	279	29	8	275	69	-160	+19	+7	-27	+128	-3.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	119	20	3	13	49	188	19	34	10	207	291	321	611	113	281	29	8	275	69	-23	+3	+1	-4	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	75	61	20	3	1	3	8	12	5	14	1	328	446	557	1.003	230	362	16	11	436	192	+8	+2	—	—	+2	1.3
2022	19	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	84	74	17	1	2	0	4	19	4	12	4	230	305	297	602	68	304	23	5	273	67	-3	+1	—	—	+2	0.0
2022	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	299	241	54	13	2	3	40	73	12	31	6	224	362	332	694	108	305	24	13	319	103	+1	+4	—	—	+8	1.3
2023	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	105	91	14	3	0	1	8	40	5	10	3	154	260	220	479	66	260	38	8	231	35	-8	+1	—	—	+3	-0.4
2023	20	ROK	ACL Reds	—	24	13	3	0	0	1	8	4	3	6	2	231	583	462	1.045	231	250	17	33	487	230	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2024	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	456	362	81	10	2	10	65	98	23	35	10	224	376	345	721	122	275	21	14	334	114	+7	+3	—	—	+13	2.4
2025	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	482	423	96	19	3	8	43	118	9	21	10	227	312	343	654	116	291	24	9	295	84	-9	+0	—	—	+14	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	1,292	32	44	218	293	347	-8	+8	0.2	0.3
	/162	664	16	23	218	293	347	-4.0	+4.1	0.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jay Allen II (OGILVIE)	23	20→30	40→45	60	45	220/298/348	128	295	13	24	29%	7%	76	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Corey Joyce 2022 · AA	23	40	39→45	54→50	39	192/262/274	82	303	8	14	37%	7%	48	-1.9	206/305/332	126	296	13	13	32%	10%	82	+0.5	214/316/327	113	306	11	14	30%	10%	82	+0.3
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	39→38	47→50	54→55	43	198/273/336	137	281	14	17	33%	8%	69	-0.4	191/270/311	120	270	12	17	32%	8%	62	-0.9	168/253/270	102	226	10	19	29%	8%	41	-1.2
✕Braulio Vasquez 2022 · A	23	40	40→45	55→65	40	189/270/275	87	300	7	31	37%	8%	53	-1.5	224/290/323	99	311	6	26	28%	7%	72	-0.2	245/309/346	101	327	3	32	24%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Jared Oliva 2019 · A	23	46→45	42→50	56→65	43	219/288/328	109	304	8	24	29%	7%	72	-0.2	218/277/322	104	307	8	25	30%	6%	66	-0.6	227/296/370	142	284	15	55	24%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	36→46	45	52→65	39	191/248/311	120	257	14	21	31%	6%	51	-1.7	219/287/347	128	293	11	39	27%	8%	77	+0.1	221/289/346	125	298	10	43	27%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Daz Cameron 2020 · AAA	23	40→45	46→55	52→55	42	202/273/338	137	283	13	17	32%	7%	69	-0.4	210/275/344	134	293	13	18	31%	7%	72	-0.2	217/290/380	163	271	19	25	27%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Jon Matthews 2014 · A	23	42	38→40	58→60	41	198/263/275	77	277	5	25	29%	6%	48	-1.9	231/299/299	68	313	3	16	25%	8%	69	-0.4	243/314/298	55	326	2	16	24%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Cooper Bowman 2023 · A	23	39	44→45	59→60	43	191/272/302	111	287	11	31	35%	8%	60	-1.0	201/274/322	121	279	12	35	31%	8%	66	-0.6	195/268/315	120	262	12	40	29%	8%	59	-0.7
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	35→40	46→50	53→55	40	187/250/311	124	262	15	19	34%	7%	53	-1.5	184/265/319	135	258	16	22	34%	8%	62	-0.9	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Jeffrey Baez 2017 · A	23	41→43	40→50	56→60	39	201/244/293	92	268	8	27	28%	5%	44	-2.1	204/257/334	130	274	15	18	30%	6%	61	-1.0	196/251/342	146	261	19	15	32%	6%	58	-0.6
✕Luke Williams 2021 · AA	24	41→46	42→45	52→60	43	202/263/305	103	271	9	20	28%	7%	56	-1.3	228/286/325	97	313	8	28	28%	7%	70	-0.3	230/291/360	130	317	13	42	30%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	40	43→45	51→55	40	193/267/298	105	296	11	13	36%	7%	56	-1.3	203/272/299	96	311	8	12	35%	8%	58	-1.2	170/253/239	69	277	4	11	36%	9%	33	-0.6
✕Jordyn Adams 2023 · AA	23	40	38→45	58→60	36	190/243/268	78	298	5	24	36%	6%	37	-2.6	197/256/307	110	301	11	29	36%	7%	53	-1.5	186/248/297	110	286	13	26	38%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Stuart Fairchild 2019 · A	23	44→42	40→50	53→55	40	211/271/309	98	301	7	14	31%	6%	59	-1.1	215/283/343	128	287	12	10	28%	7%	75	-0.0	220/316/365	145	284	15	26	26%	9%	92	+0.7
✕Franklin Rollin 2019 · AAA	23	44	40	50→55	41	211/255/302	91	263	7	18	22%	4%	50	-1.7	199/250/282	83	267	7	13	27%	5%	43	-2.2	144/191/181	37	204	3	13	30%	4%	-10	-1.4
✕Max George 2019 · A	23	33→36	41→45	53→55	43	170/253/270	99	234	9	20	30%	7%	44	-2.1	183/267/288	105	279	10	20	36%	8%	55	-1.4	148/255/300	152	246	20	20	45%	10%	51	-0.7
✕Sean Bouchard 2019 · A	23	39→41	43→55	49→50	38	195/247/302	108	280	10	13	33%	6%	48	-1.9	197/253/324	127	295	12	10	36%	6%	56	-1.3	210/314/386	176	278	19	16	30%	12%	96	+0.7
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	40	49→50	44	178/256/260	82	272	8	14	35%	9%	42	-2.3	211/287/303	92	304	7	12	30%	9%	66	-0.6	219/303/313	94	309	5	13	28%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Yancarlo Angulo 2010 · AAA	23	42→51	44→45	54→55	42	209/265/325	116	263	11	22	25%	5%	62	-0.9	227/279/322	95	285	7	19	22%	6%	66	-0.6	246/297/360	113	317	9	13	24%	4%	82	+0.3
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	34	40→45	54→60	55	161/294/251	90	257	7	24	35%	14%	59	-1.1	189/306/294	105	299	8	20	35%	12%	73	-0.1	189/308/299	110	300	9	21	35%	12%	73	-0.1