Jay Allen II — OGILVIE

Jay Allen IIOF Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 200 lbs AA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION465 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP290

ISO101

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	75	61	20	3	1	3	8	12	5	14	1	328	446	557	1.003	230	362	16	11	436	181	+7	+2	—	—	+2	1.2
2022	19	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	84	74	17	1	2	0	4	19	4	12	4	230	305	297	602	68	304	23	5	273	71	-3	+1	—	—	+2	-0.0
2022	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	299	241	54	13	2	3	40	73	12	31	6	224	362	332	694	108	305	24	13	319	102	+1	+4	—	—	+6	1.1
2023	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	105	91	14	3	0	1	8	40	5	10	3	154	260	220	479	66	260	38	8	231	42	-7	+1	—	—	+2	-0.4
2023	20	ROK	ACL Reds	—	24	13	3	0	0	1	8	4	3	6	2	231	583	462	1.045	231	250	17	33	487	215	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	456	362	81	10	2	10	65	98	23	35	10	224	376	345	721	122	275	21	14	334	113	+7	+3	—	—	+10	2.0
2025	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	482	423	96	19	3	8	43	118	9	21	10	227	312	343	654	116	291	24	9	295	86	-8	+0	—	—	+10	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	75	64	16	2	1	2	5	17	5	14	1	250	351	406	758	156	306	23	7	335	113	+1	+2	—	—	+2	0.5
2022	19	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	84	75	15	1	2	0	3	25	4	12	4	200	268	267	535	67	267	30	4	222	36	-6	+1	—	—	+2	-0.4
2022	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	299	251	46	11	1	3	30	102	12	31	6	183	300	271	571	88	280	34	10	263	64	-13	+4	—	—	+6	-0.3
2023	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	105	93	11	2	0	1	6	55	5	10	3	118	212	172	384	54	242	52	6	164	-3	-13	+1	—	—	+2	-1.0
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	24	16	3	0	0	1	5	6	3	6	2	188	458	375	833	188	198	25	21	357	128	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	456	380	64	8	1	6	47	131	23	35	10	168	298	242	540	74	229	29	10	253	57	-23	+3	—	—	+10	-1.0
2025	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	482	439	88	15	3	6	27	143	9	21	10	200	261	289	550	89	270	30	6	243	51	-28	+0	—	—	+10	-1.8
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	75	64	16	2	1	2	5	17	5	14	1	250	351	406	758	156	304	23	7	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	—	75	61	20	3	1	3	8	12	5	14	1	328	446	557	1.003	230	362	16	11	436	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	383	326	61	12	3	3	33	126	16	43	10	187	293	270	563	83	290	33	9	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	383	315	71	14	4	3	44	92	16	43	10	225	349	324	673	98	305	24	11	309	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	129	110	14	2	0	2	10	61	8	16	5	127	250	200	450	73	255	47	8	200	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	129	104	17	3	0	2	16	44	8	16	5	163	320	250	570	87	259	34	12	278	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	456	380	64	8	1	6	47	131	23	35	10	168	298	242	540	74	235	29	10	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	456	362	81	10	2	10	65	98	23	35	10	224	376	345	721	122	275	21	14	334	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	482	439	88	15	3	6	27	143	9	21	10	200	261	289	550	89	278	30	6	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	482	423	96	19	3	8	43	118	9	21	10	227	312	343	654	116	291	24	9	295	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	75	65	16	2	1	2	5	17	5	14	1	246	351	400	751	154	306	23	7	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	383	331	61	12	3	3	33	126	16	43	10	184	293	266	559	82	277	33	9	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	129	110	14	2	0	2	10	61	8	16	5	127	250	200	450	73	234	47	8	200	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	456	383	64	8	1	6	47	131	23	35	10	167	298	240	538	73	229	29	10	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	482	443	88	15	3	6	27	143	9	21	10	199	261	287	548	88	270	30	6	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	129	110	14	2	0	2	10	61	8	16	5	127	250	200	450	73	234	47	8	200	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	456	383	64	8	1	6	47	131	23	35	10	167	298	240	538	73	229	29	10	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	482	443	88	15	3	6	27	143	9	21	10	199	261	287	548	88	270	30	6	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	CIN	—	465	410	95	18	1	12	29	135	20	23	5	232	314	368	682	137	312	29	6	295	86	-8	+3	+0	-3	+10	0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA RAW	CIN	—	377	321	90	18	1	15	35	80	15	17	5	280	377	483	860	202	328	21	9	377	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AAA RAW	CIN	—	88	76	16	3	0	0	7	31	5	6	0	211	318	250	568	39	356	35	8	275	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	AA MLE	CIN	2%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		287	30	10	286	80	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	AA MLE	CIN	—	475	419	96	18	1	12	30	138	20	23	5	229	311	363	674	134	309	29	6	294	85	-8	+3	+0	-3	+10	0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	31%	505	449	99	18	2	12	35	140	16	19	5	220	300	350	650	129	286	28	7	289	82	-11	+2	+1	-3	+11	0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	45%	534	475	105	19	2	13	38	145	16	20	5	221	301	352	652	131	286	27	7	294	85	-9	+2	+1	-3	+12	0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	51%	550	489	110	20	2	14	40	148	16	21	6	225	305	360	665	135	287	27	7	297	87	-9	+2	+1	-3	+12	0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	555	493	110	20	2	14	41	149	16	21	6	223	304	357	661	134	286	27	7	297	87	-8	+2	+1	-3	+12	0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	554	491	110	20	2	14	42	149	16	20	5	224	306	358	664	134	286	27	8	296	87	-9	+2	+1	-3	+12	0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	546	485	106	19	2	13	41	148	15	18	5	219	299	346	646	128	285	27	8	294	85	-9	+2	+0	-3	+12	0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	52%	537	476	105	19	2	13	41	147	15	16	4	221	303	351	653	130	284	27	8	292	84	-11	+2	-1	-3	+12	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	31%	157	140	32	6	1	4	11	44	5	6	2	229	308	371	679	143	289	28	7	272	82	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	45%	238	212	48	9	1	6	17	65	7	9	2	226	305	363	668	137	290	27	7	278	85	-4	+1	+1	-1	+5	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	51%	280	250	57	10	1	8	20	75	8	10	3	228	306	372	678	144	290	27	7	281	87	-4	+1	+1	-2	+6	0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	291	259	59	11	1	8	22	78	8	11	3	228	308	371	679	143	290	27	8	283	87	-4	+1	+1	-2	+6	0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	296	264	60	11	1	8	22	80	8	11	3	227	306	367	674	140	289	27	7	282	87	-5	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	287	255	57	10	1	8	22	78	8	9	3	224	305	365	670	141	288	27	8	280	85	-5	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	52%	280	249	55	10	1	7	21	77	8	8	2	221	302	353	656	133	287	28	8	277	84	-5	+1	-0	-2	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1829	1629	368	67	7	49	135	497	52	64	18	226	306	366	671	140	293	27	7	279	77	-31	+6	+3	-11	+40	0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	130	24	2	17	48	177	18	23	6	225	303	361	664	136	292	27	7	279	77	-11	+2	+1	-4	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5316	4686	989	174	22	112	401	1507	171	264	72	211	297	329	626	118	283	28	8	281	77	-66	+13	+6	-23	+82	1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	121	21	3	14	49	184	21	32	9	211	297	332	629	120	282	28	8	281	77	-11	+2	+1	-4	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#2Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	4.8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
/162	664	12	20	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#3Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#4Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.8	1,835	45	65	222	298	352	-11	+12	1.3	1.3
/162	664	16	23	-4.0	+4.3	0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jay Allen II (OGILVIE)	23	20→30	40→45	60	45	213/293/330	117	287	7	14	28%	7%	80	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	40→38	47→50	54→55	44	202/275/339	137	273	14	17	30%	8%	74	-0.6	192/271/310	118	266	11	17	30%	8%	66	-1.1	166/252/265	99	226	9	19	29%	8%	47	-1.4
✕Daz Cameron 2020 · AAA	23	40→45	44→50	52→55	42	198/271/320	122	284	10	17	33%	7%	68	-1.0	206/272/329	123	293	11	18	32%	7%	70	-0.8	225/296/393	168	284	19	27	27%	8%	91	+0.3
✕Corey Joyce 2022 · AA	23	40	39→40	54→50	39	192/262/271	79	299	7	14	36%	7%	53	-2.1	205/306/320	115	292	11	13	31%	10%	82	-0.0	213/316/315	101	301	9	14	29%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Jon Matthews 2014 · A	23	42	38→40	58→60	41	198/263/275	77	278	5	25	29%	6%	54	-2.0	229/296/296	67	312	3	16	25%	8%	70	-0.8	240/310/292	52	324	2	16	24%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	35→45	44→45	52→60	39	184/241/293	109	256	12	21	32%	6%	50	-2.3	221/288/352	131	295	12	39	28%	8%	81	-0.1	221/289/349	127	292	11	41	26%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Samad Taylor 2021 · A	23	37→47	41→45	53→65	43	182/258/286	104	274	8	22	34%	8%	55	-1.9	228/299/361	133	324	14	34	32%	8%	87	+0.4	235/311/365	130	323	13	46	29%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Franklin Rollin 2019 · AAA	23	43	40→45	51→55	41	212/255/306	94	262	7	18	22%	4%	57	-1.8	200/251/284	84	267	7	13	27%	5%	51	-2.2	146/193/181	35	205	3	13	29%	4%	3	-1.4
✕Stuart Fairchild 2019 · A	23	44→42	40→50	53→55	40	211/273/310	98	303	7	14	31%	6%	65	-1.2	216/283/342	126	287	11	10	27%	7%	78	-0.3	218/314/364	146	281	15	27	26%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	39	43→45	51→55	41	193/269/299	106	293	11	13	36%	8%	63	-1.4	203/273/300	97	309	8	12	34%	8%	64	-1.3	170/256/241	71	275	3	11	36%	10%	43	-0.6
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	35→40	46→50	53→55	40	185/248/306	121	260	15	19	34%	7%	56	-1.9	181/262/305	124	259	14	22	34%	8%	62	-1.4	171/263/306	134	238	15	26	33%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Max George 2019 · A	23	35→38	44→45	53→55	44	180/263/295	115	240	11	20	29%	7%	60	-1.6	190/276/300	110	283	11	20	34%	8%	66	-1.1	150/259/288	138	250	17	20	43%	10%	55	-0.8
✕Bradlee Beesley 2022 · AA	24	40	44→45	55→60	37	196/257/315	119	306	11	20	38%	6%	61	-1.5	202/272/324	122	300	11	26	34%	7%	69	-0.9	194/271/322	129	285	11	34	34%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Phillip Ervin 2015 · A	23	42→51	43→50	56→55	43	208/263/326	118	266	9	16	25%	6%	65	-1.2	209/282/325	116	264	11	24	24%	8%	73	-0.6	235/299/371	136	298	13	21	24%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Luke Williams 2021 · AA	24	41→44	42→45	52→65	43	204/264/309	106	268	9	20	27%	6%	62	-1.4	227/285/320	93	311	7	28	27%	7%	72	-0.7	222/284/339	116	307	11	42	29%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Michael Suiter 2015 · A	23	43→39	41→45	52→50	43	211/279/308	98	266	9	15	24%	6%	68	-1.0	203/255/282	79	275	6	10	27%	5%	52	-2.2	195/245/266	70	265	6	10	28%	4%	41	-1.7
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	44	221/288/339	118	278	11	16	24%	6%	78	-0.3	214/270/297	83	283	6	12	25%	6%	61	-1.5	205/257/264	59	274	3	10	25%	6%	46	-0.7
✕Cooper Bowman 2023 · A	23	38→43	43→45	59→60	43	188/270/295	107	285	11	31	36%	8%	62	-1.4	205/277/320	115	284	11	35	30%	8%	70	-0.9	202/274/318	116	272	11	40	28%	8%	66	-0.7
✕Mikey Perez 2023 · A	23	42→35	44→45	58→60	43	204/289/330	125	286	11	31	31%	8%	78	-0.3	198/284/316	118	296	12	26	35%	8%	72	-0.7	150/256/252	101	230	14	36	38%	9%	47	-1.0
✕John Rhodes 2023 · AA	22	43→35	41→45	58→50	48	207/287/310	103	275	7	16	26%	8%	72	-0.7	186/253/287	101	260	10	9	31%	7%	53	-2.1	169/236/259	90	237	10	7	31%	7%	38	-2.3
✕Yancarlo Angulo 2010 · AAA	23	42→52	43→45	54→55	43	208/269/321	112	265	10	22	25%	6%	67	-1.1	232/289/328	96	291	6	19	21%	6%	76	-0.4	256/307/372	117	325	9	13	23%	4%	91	+0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps