Jay Allen IIOF
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 23
R/R
6'0" / 200 lbs
AA
HR +9%K -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2029
wRC+†61
AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .277 / .292
PA320
HR5
SB13
K%31
BB%8
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20↗30
PWR
40↗45
SPD
60→60
FLD
55↗60
EYE
49↘45
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2029
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $9M | $6M | -$3M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Reds | 75 | 64 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 14 | 1 | .266 | .365 | .422 | .787 | .156 | .333 | 24 | 7 | .341 | 119 | +2 | +2 | +0 | -0 | +2 | 0.6 |
| 2022 | 19 | A | 2 teams | 383 | 325 | 61 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 123 | 16 | 43 | 10 | .188 | .296 | .271 | .567 | .083 | .287 | 32 | 9 | .256 | 54 | -20 | +5 | +0 | -2 | +11 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | 2 teams | 129 | 110 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 58 | 8 | 16 | 5 | .127 | .250 | .200 | .450 | .073 | .240 | 45 | 8 | .204 | 14 | -12 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 456 | 379 | 66 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 48 | 124 | 23 | 35 | 10 | .174 | .304 | .253 | .558 | .079 | .237 | 27 | 11 | .255 | 53 | -24 | +3 | +0 | -3 | +13 | -1.1 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 482 | 439 | 86 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 152 | 9 | 21 | 10 | .196 | .257 | .294 | .551 | .098 | .277 | 32 | 6 | .242 | 43 | -31 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +14 | -2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 54 | 46 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | .196 | .302 | .261 | .563 | .065 | .333 | 35 | 7 | .268 | 63 | -2 | +1 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 266 | 236 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 83 | 8 | 10 | 3 | .195 | .280 | .292 | .573 | .097 | .278 | 31 | 8 | .264 | 60 | -12 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +8 | -0.5 |
| TOT | 23 | MLB | CIN | 320 | 282 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 102 | 11 | 13 | 3 | .195 | .284 | .287 | .571 | .092 | .288 | 32 | 8 | .265 | 61 | -14 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +9 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB 11% | CIN | 489 | 431 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 129 | 14 | 18 | 5 | .206 | .296 | .318 | .614 | .111 | .271 | 26 | 8 | .283 | 75 | -14 | +2 | +1 | -3 | +14 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB 26% | CIN | 517 | 453 | 96 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 134 | 14 | 19 | 5 | .212 | .303 | .333 | .636 | .121 | .274 | 26 | 9 | .291 | 81 | -11 | +2 | +1 | -3 | +15 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB 44% | CIN | 533 | 467 | 101 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 47 | 137 | 14 | 19 | 5 | .216 | .307 | .343 | .649 | .126 | .275 | 26 | 9 | .294 | 83 | -10 | +2 | +1 | -3 | +15 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB 59% | CIN | 538 | 471 | 101 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 138 | 14 | 18 | 5 | .214 | .306 | .340 | .646 | .125 | .276 | 26 | 9 | .295 | 84 | -10 | +2 | +1 | -3 | +15 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB 69% | CIN | 536 | 469 | 101 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 139 | 14 | 17 | 4 | .215 | .307 | .341 | .648 | .126 | .275 | 26 | 9 | .294 | 83 | -10 | +2 | +1 | -3 | +15 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB 77% | CIN | 529 | 463 | 98 | 19 | 2 | 11 | 48 | 139 | 13 | 15 | 4 | .212 | .303 | .333 | .636 | .121 | .274 | 26 | 9 | .292 | 82 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +15 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB 85% | CIN | 519 | 454 | 96 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 47 | 138 | 13 | 14 | 3 | .211 | .304 | .333 | .636 | .121 | .273 | 27 | 9 | .289 | 79 | -12 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +15 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB 91% | CIN | 506 | 442 | 92 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 136 | 13 | 11 | 3 | .208 | .301 | .324 | .625 | .115 | .271 | 27 | 9 | .285 | 76 | -14 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +14 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 488 | 429 | 87 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 134 | 12 | 9 | 2 | .203 | .295 | .312 | .607 | .110 | .270 | 27 | 9 | .280 | 73 | -15 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +14 | -0.5 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 459 | 404 | 81 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 129 | 11 | 7 | 1 | .200 | .292 | .307 | .599 | .106 | .268 | 28 | 9 | .275 | 69 | -16 | +1 | -3 | -3 | +13 | -0.8 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 413 | 363 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 120 | 10 | 6 | 1 | .193 | .285 | .292 | .577 | .099 | .266 | 29 | 9 | .269 | 64 | -17 | +1 | -4 | -2 | +12 | -1.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7318 | 6399 | 1302 | 239 | 31 | 136 | 636 | 2031 | 211 | 292 | 77 | .203 | .297 | .314 | .611 | .111 | .273 | 28 | 9 | .278 | 71 | -237 | +28 | -4 | -44 | +207 | -5.1 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 568 | 116 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 56 | 180 | 19 | 26 | 7 | .204 | .297 | .315 | .612 | .111 | .274 | 28 | 9 | .278 | 71 | -21 | +2 | -0 | -4 | +18 | -0.5 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Reds | 75 | 61 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 14 | 1 | .328 | .446 | .557 | 1.003 | .230 | .362 | 16 | 11 | .436 | 192 | +8 | +2 | — | — | +2 | 1.3 |
| 2022 | 19 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 84 | 74 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 4 | .230 | .305 | .297 | .602 | .068 | .304 | 23 | 5 | .273 | 67 | -3 | +1 | — | — | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 299 | 241 | 54 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 73 | 12 | 31 | 6 | .224 | .362 | .332 | .694 | .108 | .305 | 24 | 13 | .319 | 103 | +1 | +4 | — | — | +8 | 1.3 |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 105 | 91 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 5 | 10 | 3 | .154 | .260 | .220 | .479 | .066 | .260 | 38 | 8 | .231 | 35 | -8 | +1 | — | — | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | 24 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 2 | .231 | .583 | .462 | 1.045 | .231 | .250 | 17 | 33 | .487 | 230 | +4 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.5 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 456 | 362 | 81 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 65 | 98 | 23 | 35 | 10 | .224 | .376 | .345 | .721 | .122 | .275 | 21 | 14 | .334 | 114 | +7 | +3 | — | — | +13 | 2.4 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 482 | 423 | 96 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 43 | 118 | 9 | 21 | 10 | .227 | .312 | .343 | .654 | .116 | .291 | 24 | 9 | .295 | 84 | -9 | +0 | — | — | +14 | 0.5 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Jay Allen II (OGILVIE) | 23 | 20→30 | 40→45 | 60 | 45 | .193/.277/.292 | .099 | .273 | 5 | 12 | 31% | 8% | 60 | -0.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA |
23 | 40→38 | 47→50 | 54→55 | 43 | .202/.274/.341 | .139 | .273 | 14 | 17 | 31% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .192/.270/.316 | .124 | .268 | 13 | 17 | 31% | 8% | 63 | -0.9 | .166/.251/.266 | .100 | .225 | 10 | 19 | 29% | 8% | 40 | -1.3 |
|
✕Corey Joyce 2022 · AA |
23 | 41 | 39→45 | 53→50 | 39 | .193/.262/.274 | .080 | .300 | 7 | 13 | 36% | 7% | 48 | -1.9 | .208/.307/.328 | .120 | .294 | 12 | 12 | 31% | 10% | 82 | +0.5 | .212/.315/.318 | .105 | .301 | 9 | 14 | 29% | 10% | 80 | +0.2 |
|
✕Daz Cameron 2020 · AAA |
23 | 41→45 | 45→55 | 52→55 | 42 | .202/.273/.332 | .129 | .285 | 12 | 17 | 32% | 7% | 67 | -0.5 | .207/.273/.337 | .130 | .293 | 12 | 18 | 32% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .220/.291/.388 | .168 | .274 | 20 | 25 | 27% | 8% | 88 | +0.6 |
|
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA |
23 | 39 | 44→45 | 51→55 | 40 | .195/.268/.308 | .113 | .290 | 12 | 13 | 35% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .200/.270/.300 | .100 | .307 | 9 | 12 | 35% | 8% | 58 | -1.2 | .166/.253/.240 | .073 | .276 | 4 | 11 | 37% | 10% | 33 | -0.6 |
|
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA |
23 | 35 | 41→45 | 54→55 | 54 | .169/.297/.268 | .099 | .266 | 8 | 23 | 35% | 14% | 64 | -0.8 | .189/.306/.297 | .108 | .297 | 8 | 20 | 34% | 13% | 74 | -0.1 | .191/.310/.302 | .111 | .299 | 9 | 21 | 34% | 12% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Cooper Bowman 2023 · A |
23 | 39→42 | 43→45 | 58→60 | 44 | .194/.275/.303 | .109 | .285 | 11 | 30 | 34% | 8% | 61 | -1.0 | .204/.277/.322 | .118 | .283 | 12 | 35 | 30% | 8% | 67 | -0.5 | .200/.273/.320 | .120 | .271 | 12 | 40 | 29% | 8% | 62 | -0.6 |
|
✕Jon Matthews 2014 · A |
23 | 41 | 37→40 | 58→60 | 41 | .196/.260/.271 | .075 | .276 | 4 | 25 | 29% | 6% | 46 | -2.0 | .231/.298/.298 | .067 | .313 | 3 | 17 | 25% | 7% | 68 | -0.5 | .242/.313/.293 | .051 | .324 | 2 | 16 | 24% | 8% | 70 | -0.1 |
|
✕Braulio Vasquez 2022 · A |
23 | 40 | 40 | 54→65 | 40 | .192/.269/.282 | .090 | .299 | 8 | 28 | 36% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .216/.284/.315 | .099 | .302 | 7 | 27 | 29% | 7% | 67 | -0.5 | .225/.290/.320 | .095 | .304 | 4 | 32 | 25% | 7% | 66 | -0.3 |
|
✕Stuart Fairchild 2019 · A |
23 | 45→43 | 40→50 | 53→55 | 41 | .214/.276/.312 | .098 | .301 | 7 | 14 | 30% | 6% | 63 | -0.8 | .215/.282/.341 | .126 | .287 | 11 | 10 | 28% | 7% | 74 | -0.1 | .220/.305/.384 | .164 | .292 | 18 | 16 | 29% | 8% | 91 | +0.6 |
|
✕Samad Taylor 2021 · A |
23 | 37→47 | 41→50 | 53→65 | 44 | .181/.257/.285 | .104 | .262 | 8 | 23 | 32% | 8% | 49 | -1.8 | .226/.297/.368 | .142 | .326 | 16 | 33 | 33% | 8% | 87 | +0.8 | .236/.312/.377 | .141 | .324 | 16 | 46 | 30% | 9% | 94 | +0.8 |
|
✕Jared Oliva 2019 · A |
23 | 46 | 42→50 | 55→65 | 43 | .222/.290/.334 | .112 | .306 | 9 | 23 | 29% | 7% | 75 | -0.0 | .220/.280/.317 | .097 | .306 | 8 | 25 | 29% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .224/.292/.359 | .135 | .282 | 14 | 55 | 25% | 7% | 78 | +0.1 |
|
✕Alerick Soularie 2023 · A |
24 | 40 | 44→45 | 53→60 | 45 | .197/.277/.310 | .114 | .292 | 11 | 16 | 34% | 9% | 64 | -0.8 | .198/.281/.314 | .116 | .292 | 13 | 25 | 34% | 9% | 67 | -0.5 | .178/.270/.288 | .111 | .256 | 14 | 39 | 34% | 9% | 55 | -0.5 |
|
✕Michael O'Neill 2015 · A |
23 | 41→40 | 43→45 | 55 | 36 | .205/.257/.310 | .105 | .290 | 10 | 21 | 32% | 5% | 54 | -1.4 | .200/.246/.297 | .097 | .290 | 9 | 17 | 33% | 5% | 46 | -2.0 | .203/.255/.312 | .108 | .300 | 10 | 22 | 34% | 5% | 51 | -1.2 |
|
✕John Rhodes 2023 · AA |
22 | 43→35 | 41→45 | 58→50 | 47 | .207/.283/.312 | .104 | .273 | 8 | 15 | 26% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .188/.255/.296 | .108 | .265 | 11 | 9 | 32% | 7% | 50 | -1.7 | .168/.235/.263 | .095 | .240 | 11 | 7 | 33% | 7% | 31 | -2.2 |
|
✕Bradlee Beesley 2022 · AA |
24 | 41 | 44→50 | 54→60 | 37 | .199/.259/.318 | .119 | .313 | 12 | 19 | 38% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .202/.269/.329 | .127 | .302 | 12 | 25 | 35% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .193/.269/.328 | .135 | .286 | 12 | 34 | 35% | 7% | 61 | -0.5 |
|
✕Jordyn Adams 2023 · AA |
23 | 40→41 | 38→45 | 57→60 | 36 | .188/.243/.264 | .076 | .303 | 6 | 23 | 38% | 6% | 36 | -2.7 | .199/.258/.305 | .106 | .306 | 10 | 30 | 36% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .194/.256/.310 | .116 | .294 | 12 | 32 | 36% | 7% | 52 | -1.3 |
|
✕Luke Williams 2021 · AA |
24 | 41→45 | 42→45 | 51→60 | 43 | .204/.265/.308 | .104 | .270 | 9 | 19 | 27% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .226/.285/.324 | .098 | .310 | 8 | 27 | 27% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .227/.288/.355 | .128 | .309 | 13 | 42 | 29% | 7% | 76 | +0.0 |
|
✕Franklin Rollin 2019 · AAA |
23 | 44 | 40→45 | 52→55 | 41 | .213/.256/.310 | .096 | .262 | 8 | 19 | 22% | 4% | 53 | -1.5 | .197/.247/.280 | .083 | .262 | 7 | 13 | 27% | 5% | 42 | -2.3 | .145/.193/.183 | .039 | .204 | 3 | 13 | 30% | 4% | -9 | -1.4 |
|
✕Max George 2019 · A |
23 | 35→37 | 44→45 | 52→55 | 43 | .180/.259/.296 | .116 | .238 | 11 | 18 | 29% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .187/.271/.299 | .112 | .276 | 11 | 20 | 34% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .147/.256/.292 | .145 | .254 | 19 | 20 | 46% | 10% | 50 | -0.7 |
|
✕Mikey Perez 2023 · A |
23 | 43→35 | 44→45 | 58→60 | 44 | .207/.291/.332 | .124 | .288 | 11 | 30 | 30% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 | .197/.284/.315 | .118 | .291 | 12 | 27 | 34% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .151/.257/.253 | .102 | .229 | 14 | 36 | 38% | 9% | 40 | -0.9 |