Jay Allen II

OF Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 200 lbs AA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421A+CIN456.224/.376/.345103561—.177/.307/.256
202522AACIN482.227/.312/.34382154—.205/.265/.296
202623AAA/AACIN465.267/.366/.438152389—.232/.314/.371
2027PROJMLE24MLBCIN4.198/.273/.3160065-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB25MLBCIN60.202/.277/.3241268-0.1
2029PROJ35% MLB26MLBCIN107.204/.279/.3283470-0.2
Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Speed89
Max EV48
Z-Con%42
BB%29
Whiff%24
Chase%14
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%
CompsBradlee Beesley (age 24) · Alerick Soularie (age 25) · Jeter Downs (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†65
AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .273 / .316
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%6
BABIP285
ISO111
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: +0.7 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.3-0.1-0.2272829
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202118 ROKACL Reds — 7561 20313 8125 141 3284465571.003 230362 1611 436 114 — — — — — —
202219 A+Dayton Dragons — 8474 17120 4194 124 230305297602 68304 235 273 47 — — — — — —
202219 ADaytona Tortugas — 299241 541323 407312 316 224362332694 108305 2413 319 63 — — — — — —
202320 A+Dayton Dragons — 10591 14301 8405 103 154260220479 66260 388 231 5 — — — — — —
202320 ROKACL Reds — 2413 3001 843 62 2315834621.045 231250 1733 487 125 — — — — — —
202421 A+Dayton Dragons — 456362 8110210 659823 3510 224376345721 122275 2114 334 61 — — — — — —
202522 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 482423 961938 431189 2110 227312343654 116291 249 295 54 — — — — — —
202623 AAALouisville Bats — 8876 16300 7315 60 211318250568 39356 358 275 40 — — — — — —
202623 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 377321 9018115 358015 175 280377483860 202328 219 377 100 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202118 ROK MLEACL Reds — 7564 17212 5175 141 266365422787 156308 237 337 114 — — — — — —
202219 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 8475 16120 3234 124 213280280560 67282 274 238 47 — — — — — —
202219 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 299252 491123 299712 316 194307290597 95279 3210 261 63 — — — — — —
202320 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 10593 11201 6525 103 118212172384 54249 506 175 5 — — — — — —
202320 ROK MLEACL Reds — 2416 3001 563 62 188458375833 188194 2521 353 125 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 456379 67826 4812423 3510 177307256563 79233 2711 259 61 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 482439 901636 271439 2110 205265296561 91275 306 248 54 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 8878 13200 5375 60 167261192454 26340 426 228 40 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 377332 8217112 249815 175 247326413739 166298 266 316 100 — — — — — —
202118 ROK MLEACL Reds — 7564 17212 5175 141 266365422787 156326 237 337 114 — — — — — —
202118 ROK RAWACL Reds — 7561 20313 8125 141 3284465571.003 230362 1611 436 114 — — — — — —
202219 A MLE2 teams — 383327 641143 3212016 4310 196299281580 86295 318 256 59 — — — — — —
202219 A RAW2 teams — 383315 711443 449216 4310 225349324673 98305 2411 309 59 — — — — — —
202320 A+ MLE2 teams — 129110 15202 10588 165 136258209467 73260 458 208 27 — — — — — —
202320 A+ RAW2 teams — 129104 17302 16448 165 163320250570 87259 3412 278 27 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 456379 67826 4812423 3510 177307256563 79241 2711 259 61 — — — — — —
202421 A+ RAWDayton Dragons — 456362 8110210 659823 3510 224376345721 122275 2114 334 61 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 482439 901636 271439 2110 205265296561 91285 306 248 54 — — — — — —
202522 AA RAWChattanooga Lookouts — 482423 961938 431189 2110 227312343654 116291 249 295 54 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 465410 9619112 2913520 235 234316373689 139316 296 299 89 — — — — — —
202623 AA RAW2 teams — 465397 10621115 4211120 235 267366438804 171332 249 358 89 — — — — — —
202118 ROK MLEACL Reds — 7565 17212 5175 141 262365415780 154308 237 337 114 — — — — — —
202219 A MLE2 teams — 383332 641143 3212016 4310 193299277576 84280 318 256 59 — — — — — —
202320 A+ MLE2 teams — 129110 15202 10588 165 136258209467 73239 458 208 27 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 456382 67826 4812423 3510 175307254561 79233 2711 259 61 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 482443 901636 271439 2110 203265293559 90275 306 248 54 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 465413 9619112 2913520 235 232316370686 138306 296 299 89 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 456382 67826 4812423 3510 175307254561 79233 2711 259 61 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 482443 901636 271439 2110 203265293559 90275 306 248 54 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 465413 9619112 2913520 235 232316370686 138306 296 299 89 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLECIN 2% 380342 681318 2412811 134 197271309581 113284 346 265 65 -16 +1 +1 -2 +8 -0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXCIN 2% 44 0000 010 00 198273316589 118285 250 268 65 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLECIN 23% 260234 47916 17867 93 200275316591 117284 337 269 68 -10 +1 +1 -2 +6 -0.5
202926 MLB MLECIN 35% 305274 551017 20998 103 202277321598 119284 327 272 70 -11 +1 +1 -2 +7 -0.5
202825 MLB CTXCIN 23% 6054 10201 4202 21 202277324600 122285 337 272 68 -2 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.1
202926 MLB CTXCIN 35% 10796 20403 7353 41 204279328607 124285 337 275 70 -4 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 167150 30604 11555 62 200277320597 120283 337 274 66 -6 +0 +0 -1 +4 -0.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650584 11723016 4321419 238 200277322599 122282 337 274 66 -24 +2 +1 -4 +14 -1.1
Career— MLE — 27652426 488841448 201853102 17849 201290307597 106285 317 266 66 -29 +2 +2 -5 +17 -1.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650570 11420311 4720124 4212 200289304592 104284 317 266 66 -25 +2 +1 -4 +14 -1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 377 PAwOBA .370 → .316 (−54)K% 21.2% → 25.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.22%÷1.000×1.220——25.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.28%÷1.000×0.680—×1.0126.39%
HBP% /PA3.98%—×0.840—×1.0123.38%
Singles /BIP23.24%÷1.000×0.920×0.992×1.01221.46%
Doubles /BIP7.47%÷1.000×0.910×0.992×1.0126.82%
Triples /BIP0.41%÷1.000×0.880×0.992×1.0120.37%
Home runs /BIP6.22%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0125.04%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .370 → .316; ISO .202 → .171; BABIP .328 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 88 PAwOBA .268 → .228 (−40)K% 35.2% → 42.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.23%÷1.000×1.200——42.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.95%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0485.75%
HBP% /PA5.68%—×0.940—×1.0485.60%
Singles /BIP28.89%÷1.000×0.930—×1.04828.16%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷1.000×0.830—×1.0485.80%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0480.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .268 → .228; ISO .039 → .031; BABIP .356 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 482 PAwOBA .290 → .248 (−41)K% 24.5% → 29.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.48%÷1.010×1.220——29.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.71%÷1.087×0.680—×1.0275.60%
HBP% /PA1.87%—×0.840—×1.0271.61%
Singles /BIP21.64%÷0.963×0.920×0.998×1.02721.17%
Doubles /BIP6.23%÷1.092×0.910×0.998×1.0275.32%
Triples /BIP0.98%÷1.001×0.880×0.998×1.0270.89%
Home runs /BIP2.62%÷1.021×0.800—×1.0272.11%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .290 → .248; ISO .116 → .097; BABIP .291 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 456 PAwOBA .330 → .259 (−70)K% 21.5% → 27.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.49%÷1.006×1.270——27.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.25%÷0.976×0.710—×1.01210.50%
HBP% /PA5.04%—×0.790—×1.0124.03%
Singles /BIP22.35%÷1.023×0.920×0.951×1.01219.34%
Doubles /BIP3.79%÷0.941×0.810×0.951×1.0123.14%
Triples /BIP0.76%÷1.030×0.850×0.951×1.0120.60%
Home runs /BIP3.79%÷1.285×0.800—×1.0122.39%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 106, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .330 → .259; ISO .122 → .085; BABIP .275 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 105 PAwOBA .225 → .175 (−50)K% 38.1% → 49.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA38.10%÷0.975×1.270——49.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.62%÷1.020×0.710—×1.0275.45%
HBP% /PA4.76%—×0.790—×1.0273.86%
Singles /BIP19.61%÷0.979×0.920×1.033×1.02719.55%
Doubles /BIP5.88%÷1.027×0.810×1.033×1.0274.93%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.916×0.850×1.033×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP1.96%÷0.951×0.800—×1.0271.69%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 83, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .225 → .175; ISO .066 → .047; BABIP .260 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Reds · 24 PAwOBA .477 → .353 (−124)K% 16.7% → 23.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.67%÷1.027×1.440——23.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA33.33%÷1.040×0.620—×0.98519.58%
HBP% /PA12.50%—×0.720—×0.9858.86%
Singles /BIP22.22%÷1.004×0.820—×0.98517.88%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.038×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Home runs /BIP11.11%÷1.059×0.780—×0.9858.06%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 105, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .477 → .353; ISO .231 → .215; BABIP .250 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADaytona Tortugas · 299 PAwOBA .314 → .261 (−53)K% 24.4% → 32.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.41%÷1.021×1.360——32.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.38%÷0.986×0.690—×1.0309.64%
HBP% /PA4.01%—×0.780—×1.0303.22%
Singles /BIP21.43%÷1.016×0.920×1.011×1.03020.20%
Doubles /BIP7.74%÷1.028×0.830×1.011×1.0306.50%
Triples /BIP1.19%÷1.016×0.910×1.011×1.0301.11%
Home runs /BIP1.79%÷0.883×0.800—×1.0301.67%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 103, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .314 → .261; ISO .108 → .093; BABIP .305 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 84 PAwOBA .269 → .238 (−32)K% 22.6% → 27.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.62%÷1.047×1.270——27.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.76%÷0.958×0.710—×1.0423.68%
HBP% /PA4.76%—×0.790—×1.0423.92%
Singles /BIP25.45%÷1.002×0.920×0.999×1.04224.31%
Doubles /BIP1.82%÷1.217×0.810×0.999×1.0421.26%
Triples /BIP3.64%÷1.028×0.850×0.999×1.0423.13%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.058×0.800—×1.0420.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 143, 3B 106, K 109, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .269 → .238; ISO .068 → .055; BABIP .304 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).