Johan Lopez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 320 | .221/.317/.348 | 6 | 9 | 47 | — | .176/.247/.268 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 151 | .197/.320/.276 | 1 | 4 | 52 | — | .183/.269/.270 |
| 2024 | 24 | INTLTiburones de … | 20 | .353/.450/.588 | 0 | 0 | 189 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | — | 227 | 201 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 41 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 219 | 302 | 289 | 591 | 70 | 270 | 18 | 7 | 274 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | — | 220 | 183 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 28 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 240 | 341 | 339 | 680 | 98 | 269 | 13 | 9 | 303 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Rays | — | 277 | 237 | 76 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 28 | 20 | 6 | 26 | 5 | 321 | 406 | 477 | 883 | 156 | 341 | 7 | 10 | 384 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 325 | 262 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 44 | 89 | 12 | 17 | 1 | 240 | 374 | 412 | 786 | 172 | 315 | 27 | 14 | 351 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 77 | 70 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 157 | 213 | 243 | 456 | 86 | 213 | 30 | 5 | 205 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 227 | 191 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 57 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 236 | 348 | 366 | 715 | 131 | 305 | 25 | 12 | 324 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | INTL | Tigres de Aragua | — | 16 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 333 | 375 | 600 | 975 | 267 | 455 | 25 | 6 | 418 | 169 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 40 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 436 | 241 | 677 | 368 | 28 | 25 | 333 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 84 | 75 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 173 | 262 | 307 | 569 | 133 | 250 | 31 | 10 | 260 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Tigres de Aragua | — | 27 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 333 | 217 | 551 | 312 | 26 | 11 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 20 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 353 | 450 | 588 | 1.038 | 235 | 400 | 10 | 15 | 447 | 189 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays 1 | — | 227 | 206 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 146 | 218 | 184 | 402 | 39 | 182 | 22 | 5 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays 1 | — | 220 | 189 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 34 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 153 | 242 | 206 | 448 | 53 | 170 | 15 | 6 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 277 | 248 | 60 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 29 | 6 | 26 | 5 | 242 | 306 | 351 | 657 | 109 | 258 | 10 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 325 | 277 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 125 | 12 | 17 | 1 | 191 | 296 | 314 | 610 | 123 | 292 | 38 | 9 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 77 | 71 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 155 | 200 | 239 | 439 | 85 | 207 | 35 | 4 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 227 | 202 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 74 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 183 | 263 | 277 | 541 | 94 | 257 | 33 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 40 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 219 | 359 | 219 | 578 | 359 | 32 | 18 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 84 | 78 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 226 | 295 | 521 | 128 | 246 | 37 | 6 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays 1 | — | 227 | 206 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 146 | 218 | 184 | 402 | 39 | 192 | 22 | 5 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Rays 1 | — | 227 | 201 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 41 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 219 | 302 | 289 | 591 | 70 | 270 | 18 | 7 | 274 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays 1 | — | 220 | 189 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 34 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 153 | 242 | 206 | 448 | 53 | 178 | 15 | 6 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Rays 1 | — | 220 | 183 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 28 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 240 | 341 | 339 | 680 | 98 | 269 | 13 | 9 | 303 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 277 | 248 | 60 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 29 | 6 | 26 | 5 | 242 | 306 | 351 | 657 | 109 | 265 | 10 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Rays | — | 277 | 237 | 76 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 28 | 20 | 6 | 26 | 5 | 321 | 406 | 477 | 883 | 156 | 341 | 7 | 10 | 384 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 325 | 277 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 125 | 12 | 17 | 1 | 191 | 296 | 314 | 610 | 123 | 307 | 38 | 9 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 325 | 262 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 44 | 89 | 12 | 17 | 1 | 240 | 374 | 412 | 786 | 172 | 315 | 27 | 14 | 351 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 320 | 288 | 51 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 107 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 177 | 248 | 267 | 515 | 90 | 257 | 33 | 6 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 320 | 276 | 61 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 84 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 221 | 317 | 348 | 665 | 127 | 291 | 26 | 10 | 300 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 151 | 133 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 180 | 273 | 263 | 536 | 83 | 291 | 36 | 10 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 151 | 127 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 197 | 320 | 276 | 596 | 79 | 289 | 29 | 14 | 282 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL MLE | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 20 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 353 | 450 | 588 | 1.038 | 235 | 400 | 10 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL RAW | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 20 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 353 | 450 | 588 | 1.038 | 235 | 400 | 10 | 15 | 447 | 189 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays 1 | — | 227 | 206 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 146 | 218 | 184 | 402 | 39 | 182 | 22 | 5 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays 1 | — | 220 | 196 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 34 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 148 | 242 | 199 | 441 | 51 | 170 | 15 | 6 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 277 | 252 | 60 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 29 | 6 | 26 | 5 | 238 | 306 | 345 | 652 | 107 | 258 | 10 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 325 | 281 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 125 | 12 | 17 | 1 | 189 | 296 | 310 | 605 | 121 | 292 | 38 | 9 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 320 | 290 | 51 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 107 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 176 | 248 | 266 | 513 | 90 | 244 | 33 | 6 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 151 | 133 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 180 | 273 | 263 | 536 | 83 | 282 | 36 | 10 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1540 | 1358 | 253 | 50 | 11 | 16 | 110 | 401 | 42 | 79 | 23 | 186 | 268 | 275 | 543 | 88 | 248 | 26 | 7 | 235 | 45 | -101 | +7 | +0 | +0 | +33 | -6.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 573 | 107 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 46 | 169 | 18 | 33 | 10 | 187 | 268 | 277 | 546 | 91 | 248 | 26 | 7 | 235 | 45 | -43 | +3 | +0 | +0 | +14 | -2.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 84 PAwOBA .254 → .213 (−41)K% 31.0% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.95% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.072 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 6.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.24% | ÷0.949 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 12.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.20% | ÷1.030 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 9.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.087 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.54% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 90, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .254 → .213; ISO .133 → .111; BABIP .250 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAADurham Bulls · 40 PAwOBA .335 → .295 (−40)K% 27.5% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.50% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 17.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.89% | ÷1.006 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 37.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.137 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .335 → .295; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .368 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 227 PAwOBA .319 → .244 (−75)K% 25.1% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.11% | ÷1.002 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.89% | ÷1.038 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 6.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.64% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 2.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.39% | ÷1.011 | ×0.870 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 19.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.46% | ÷1.079 | ×0.780 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.73% | ÷1.020 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.26% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 102, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 100, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .319 → .244; ISO .131 → .106; BABIP .305 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 77 PAwOBA .202 → .180 (−22)K% 29.9% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.87% | ÷1.032 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.19% | ÷0.984 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 3.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.89% | ÷1.001 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 14.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.38% | ÷1.090 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 5.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.955 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.83% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 100, 2B 118, 3B 91, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .202 → .180; ISO .086 → .074; BABIP .213 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ACharleston RiverDogs · 325 PAwOBA .346 → .273 (−73)K% 27.4% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.38% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.23% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.69% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.54% | ÷0.968 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.015 | 21.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.51% | ÷0.871 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.015 | 7.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.58% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.976 | ×1.015 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.78% | ÷1.026 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 4.57% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 94, 2B 74, 3B 130, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .346 → .273; ISO .172 → .133; BABIP .315 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKGCL Rays · 277 PAwOBA .377 → .283 (−94)K% 7.2% → 10.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 10.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 6.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 18.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 4.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 2.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.72% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .377 → .283; ISO .156 → .115; BABIP .341 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 DSLDSL Rays 1 · 220 PAwOBA .299 → .201 (−98)K% 12.7% → 15.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.73% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.64% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.957 | ×1.008 | 12.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.957 | ×1.008 | 4.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.957 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.61% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .299 → .201; ISO .098 → .057; BABIP .269 → .170. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 DSLDSL Rays 1 · 227 PAwOBA .267 → .180 (−87)K% 18.1% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.06% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 5.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.08% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.998 | ×1.022 | 14.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.998 | ×1.022 | 3.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.998 | ×1.022 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.30% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .267 → .180; ISO .070 → .041; BABIP .270 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .