Talon Haley

P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.5 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTFG #668MiLBFA 2036

Scout OFP45ETA2028FG ETA2030MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	ALAA	21	20	88	4.72	2.83	31.5%	13.3%	—	K 23.3% · BB 15.7% · FIP 4.05
2027PROJ	21	MLBLAA	13	13	61	4.99	4.99	24.1%	16.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBLAA	8	8	41	4.78	4.66	24.9%	13.9%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBLAA	12	12	63	4.55	4.42	25.4%	12.5%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$3M2034Arb-2$4M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff53Control47Command41FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 76%

CompsCaden Grice (age 22) · Dalton Rogers (age 22) · Sam Weatherly (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%24.1%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4055

CTRL3545

CMD2540

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$10M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	21	20	88	384	121	51	5	95%	4.2	23.3%	15.7%	7.6%	1.7%	4.72	4.05	—
2026	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	21	20	88	384	121	51	5	95%	4.2	23.3%	15.7%	7.6%	1.7%	4.72	4.05	—
2026	20	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	21	20	88	384	121	51	5	95%	4.2	31.5%	13.3%	18.2%	1.3%	4.72	2.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	LAA	13	13	61	258	62	41	7	100%	4.7	24.1%	16.0%	8.1%	2.8%	4.99	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	83	350	87	49	10	100%	5.2	24.9%	13.9%	11.0%	2.7%	4.75	4.63	+0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	86	363	92	45	10	100%	5.4	25.4%	12.5%	13.0%	2.7%	4.52	4.39	+0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	88	372	96	43	10	100%	5.5	25.8%	11.6%	14.3%	2.7%	4.35	4.24	+0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	89	376	98	41	10	100%	5.9	26.1%	11.0%	15.1%	2.7%	4.22	4.14	+0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	89	376	99	41	10	100%	5.9	26.3%	11.0%	15.3%	2.7%	4.16	4.12	+0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	88	371	98	41	10	100%	5.9	26.3%	11.1%	15.3%	2.7%	4.16	4.16	+0.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	85	360	94	40	10	100%	6.1	26.2%	11.2%	15.0%	2.8%	4.21	4.24	+0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	81	344	89	39	10	100%	5.8	26.0%	11.4%	14.5%	3.0%	4.31	4.37	+0.5
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	76	323	89	35	10	100%	5.9	27.6%	10.9%	16.7%	3.2%	4.29	4.28	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	71	301	82	34	10	100%	5.9	27.2%	11.3%	15.9%	3.4%	4.41	4.48	+0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	66	279	75	33	10	100%	6.0	26.8%	11.7%	15.1%	3.7%	4.59	4.71	+0.1
2039	33	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	61	256	67	31	10	100%	6.1	26.3%	12.1%	14.1%	3.9%	4.81	4.96	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	41	173	43	24	5	100%	5.1	24.9%	13.9%	11.0%	2.8%	4.78	4.66	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	63	266	68	33	7	100%	5.2	25.4%	12.5%	13.0%	2.8%	4.55	4.42	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	73	308	80	36	8	100%	5.6	25.8%	11.6%	14.3%	2.7%	4.38	4.27	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	79	334	87	37	9	100%	5.6	26.1%	11.0%	15.1%	2.7%	4.25	4.17	+0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	81	342	90	38	9	100%	5.8	26.3%	11.0%	15.3%	2.7%	4.19	4.15	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	81	342	90	38	10	100%	5.8	26.3%	11.1%	15.3%	2.8%	4.19	4.19	+0.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	80	338	88	38	10	100%	6.2	26.2%	11.2%	15.0%	2.9%	4.24	4.27	+0.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	77	325	84	37	10	100%	5.9	26.0%	11.4%	14.5%	3.0%	4.34	4.40	+0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	73	308	85	34	10	100%	6.1	27.6%	10.9%	16.7%	3.2%	4.32	4.31	+0.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	68	287	78	32	10	100%	6.2	27.2%	11.3%	15.9%	3.5%	4.45	4.52	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	63	266	71	31	10	100%	6.3	26.8%	11.7%	15.1%	3.7%	4.63	4.75	+0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	58	245	64	30	10	100%	5.8	26.3%	12.1%	14.1%	4.0%	4.85	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	143	835	3527	928	406	108	100%	5.8	26.3%	11.5%	14.8%	3.1%	4.40	4.01	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	222	97	26	100%	5.8	26.3%	11.5%	14.8%	3.1%	4.40	4.01	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		21	20	88	384	90	60	7	95%	4.2	23.3%	15.7%	7.6%	1.7%	4.72	4.05	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	46	200	876	204	137	15	95%	4.2	23.3%	15.7%	7.6%	1.7%	4.72	4.05	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Talon Haley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	24.1%	16.0%	2.8%	—	4.42	25.4%	12.8%	257	-0.57	—	—	—
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	92
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	86
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	85
Miguel Flores L 2024 · 4.30 FIP	19	SP	4.30	21.2%	16.5%	1.6%	.294	4.90	17.4%	-0.3%	127	+0.60	4.30	173	84
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	83
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	83
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	81
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	81
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	80
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	80
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	80
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	79
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	79
Doug Nikhazy L 2022 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	21.8%	19.9%	2.2%	.270	4.75	20.9%	8.5%	312	-0.24	4.12	463	79
Alex Clemmey L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	19	SP	4.22	23.3%	19.0%	1.2%	.313	5.26	20.2%	4.5%	245	+1.04	4.22	337	78
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	78
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	78
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.69	19.9%	9.7%	345	-0.23	3.25	451	78
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.79	281	77
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	79	26.1%	11.9%	1.14	4.42
Juan Berenguer ('78-'92, 9 WAR*)	6.0	100	26.4%*	11.6%*	1.13*	4.14*
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*
Juan Cruz ('12)	3.3	60	23.1%	12.1%	0.92	4.05
Mike Remlinger ('06)	4.4	68	22.4%	11.3%	1.05	3.90
Kerry Wood ('12)	6.9	115	27.0%	11.4%	0.97	3.67