Jacob Odle — OGILVIE

Jacob Odle P Peoria Chiefs

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.06

FIP6.06

K%20.4%

BB%22.0%

K-BB%-1.6%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	2	0	2	12	2	3	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	25.0%	-8.3%	0.0%	9.00	4.86	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	2	0	2	12	2	3	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	25.0%	-8.3%	0.0%	9.00	4.86	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	2	0	2	12	2	3	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	25.0%	-8.3%	0.0%	9.00	5.60	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	52	231	69	37	1	100%	3.0	20.5%	21.2%	-0.7%	0.7%	5.92	4.43	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	52	231	69	37	1	100%	3.0	20.5%	21.2%	-0.7%	0.7%	5.92	4.43	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	52	231	69	37	1	100%	3.0	29.9%	16.0%	13.9%	0.4%	5.92	2.83	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	22	96	419	143	65	10	92%	4.0	25.9%	18.0%	8.0%	3.0%	3.19	4.84	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	22	96	419	143	65	10	92%	4.0	25.9%	18.0%	8.0%	3.0%	3.19	4.84	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	STL	9	7	33	140	51	16	2	78%	3.7	36.4%	11.4%	25.0%	1.4%	1.91	2.26	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	STL	15	15	63	279	92	49	8	100%	4.2	33.0%	17.6%	15.4%	2.9%	3.86	4.11	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	98	412	88	76	11	100%	5.4	21.3%	18.5%	2.8%	2.7%	5.67	5.53	-0.7
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	100	422	92	68	12	100%	5.6	21.9%	16.2%	5.7%	2.7%	5.34	5.19	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	101	427	95	63	12	100%	5.9	22.3%	14.8%	7.5%	2.7%	5.10	4.97	-0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	101	427	96	62	12	100%	5.9	22.5%	14.5%	7.9%	2.7%	4.99	4.93	-0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	100	421	94	61	12	100%	5.9	22.5%	14.6%	7.8%	2.8%	4.98	4.97	-0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	97	408	91	60	12	100%	6.0	22.3%	14.8%	7.6%	2.9%	5.02	5.05	-0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	92	390	86	58	12	100%	6.2	22.1%	15.0%	7.1%	3.0%	5.12	5.18	-0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	87	366	80	56	12	100%	6.2	21.7%	15.3%	6.5%	3.2%	5.26	5.36	-0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	48	203	43	38	5	100%	5.3	21.3%	18.5%	2.8%	2.6%	5.56	5.42	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	70	296	65	48	8	100%	5.8	21.9%	16.2%	5.7%	2.5%	5.23	5.08	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	82	346	77	51	9	100%	5.9	22.3%	14.8%	7.5%	2.5%	4.99	4.86	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	88	372	83	54	9	100%	5.9	22.5%	14.5%	7.9%	2.5%	4.88	4.82	-0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	90	380	85	56	10	100%	6.0	22.5%	14.6%	7.8%	2.6%	4.87	4.86	-0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	89	376	84	56	10	100%	5.9	22.3%	14.8%	7.6%	2.7%	4.91	4.94	-0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	86	363	80	54	10	100%	6.1	22.1%	15.0%	7.1%	2.8%	5.00	5.06	-0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	81	342	74	52	10	100%	5.8	21.7%	15.3%	6.5%	3.0%	5.14	5.24	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	108	635	2679	593	409	72	100%	5.9	22.1%	15.3%	6.9%	2.7%	5.04	4.63	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	187	129	23	100%	5.9	22.1%	15.3%	6.9%	2.7%	5.04	4.63	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		43	39	150	662	158	127	14	91%	3.5	23.9%	19.2%	4.6%	2.1%	4.21	4.69	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	52	200	885	211	170	19	91%	3.5	23.9%	19.2%	4.6%	2.1%	4.21	4.69	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Odle (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.06	20.4%	22.0%	2.8%	—	5.23	21.8%	5.4%	298	-0.83	—	—	—
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	85
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	84
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	84
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	3.37	241	82
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	81
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	80
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	80
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	80
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	79
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	79
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	79
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	79
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	78
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	78
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	76
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	76
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	76
Mason Denaburg R 2022 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	16.3%	16.4%	2.1%	.278	5.84	13.1%	-7.7%	92	+0.89	4.48	151	75
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	91	22.0%	15.8%	1.10	5.23
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25