Jacob Odle

P Peoria Chiefs

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#885ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	ROKSTL	2	0	2	9.00	5.60	16.7%	25.0%	—	K 16.7% · BB 25.0% · FIP 4.86
2025	21	MIX2 levels	17	17	52	5.92	2.83	29.9%	16.0%	—	K 20.5% · BB 21.2% · FIP 4.43
2026	22	MIX2 levels	24	22	96	3.19	3.51	34.1%	15.5%	—	K 25.9% · BB 18.0% · FIP 4.84
2027PROJ	23	MLBSTL	—	—	0	5.42	5.42	25.9%	19.9%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSTL	6	6	31	5.03	4.92	26.1%	17.0%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSTL	8	8	44	4.80	4.68	26.1%	15.2%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.6M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.2, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 79%

CompsLuis Quiñones (age 24) · Max Bain (age 23) · TJ Shook (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.42

FIP5.42

K%25.9%

BB%19.9%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	2	0	2	12	2	3	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	25.0%	-8.3%	0.0%	9.00	4.86	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	2	0	2	12	2	3	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	25.0%	-8.3%	0.0%	9.00	5.60	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	52	231	69	37	1	100%	3.0	20.5%	21.2%	-0.7%	0.7%	5.92	4.43	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	52	231	69	37	1	100%	3.0	20.5%	21.2%	-0.7%	0.7%	5.92	4.43	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	52	231	69	37	1	100%	3.0	29.9%	16.0%	13.9%	0.4%	5.92	2.83	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	96	419	143	65	10	92%	4.0	25.9%	18.0%	8.0%	3.0%	3.19	4.84	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	96	419	143	65	10	92%	4.0	25.9%	18.0%	8.0%	3.0%	3.19	4.84	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	96	419	143	65	10	92%	4.0	34.1%	15.5%	18.6%	2.4%	3.19	3.51	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.9%	19.9%	6.0%	2.9%	5.42	5.42	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	71	301	78	51	9	100%	5.5	26.1%	17.0%	9.0%	2.9%	5.14	5.03	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	66	280	73	43	8	100%	6.0	26.1%	15.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.91	4.79	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	65	274	72	40	8	100%	5.9	26.1%	14.8%	11.4%	2.9%	4.80	4.74	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	63	265	69	39	8	100%	6.3	26.0%	14.7%	11.3%	3.0%	4.78	4.77	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	60	252	65	37	8	100%	6.0	25.9%	14.8%	11.1%	3.1%	4.82	4.85	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	55	233	60	35	7	100%	6.1	25.7%	15.0%	10.6%	3.2%	4.92	4.98	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	55	231	63	34	8	100%	6.1	27.3%	14.5%	12.8%	3.4%	4.90	4.89	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	31	131	34	22	4	100%	5.2	26.1%	17.0%	9.0%	2.7%	5.03	4.92	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	44	186	49	28	5	100%	5.5	26.1%	15.2%	11.0%	2.7%	4.80	4.68	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	51	215	56	32	6	100%	6.4	26.1%	14.8%	11.4%	2.7%	4.69	4.63	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	54	228	59	33	6	100%	6.0	26.0%	14.7%	11.3%	2.8%	4.67	4.66	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	53	224	58	33	6	100%	5.9	25.9%	14.8%	11.1%	2.9%	4.70	4.73	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	50	211	54	32	6	100%	6.2	25.7%	15.0%	10.6%	3.0%	4.80	4.86	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	50	211	58	31	7	100%	6.2	27.3%	14.5%	12.8%	3.2%	4.77	4.76	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	56	333	1407	368	211	40	100%	6.0	26.2%	15.0%	11.1%	2.9%	4.76	4.36	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	221	127	24	100%	5.9	26.2%	15.0%	11.1%	2.9%	4.76	4.36	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		43	39	150	662	158	127	14	91%	3.5	23.9%	19.2%	4.6%	2.1%	4.21	4.69	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	52	200	885	211	170	19	91%	3.5	23.9%	19.2%	4.6%	2.1%	4.21	4.69	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 63 IPFIP 4.11 → 5.48 (+1.37)K% 33.0% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.97%	—	×0.770	25.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.56%	—	×1.150	20.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.87%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.58%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.11 → 5.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 33 IPFIP 2.26 → 3.55 (+1.30)K% 36.4% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.43%	—	×0.740	26.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.180	13.49%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.86%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.26 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 43 IPFIP 3.32 → 4.43 (+1.11)K% 27.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.69%	—	×0.740	20.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.95%	—	×1.180	21.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.51%	÷0.973	×1.300	0.68%

Result: FIP 3.32 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Cardinals · 9 IPFIP 0.29 → 1.59 (+1.30)K% 41.7% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.67%	—	×0.680	28.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.250	6.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.149	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 130).

Result: FIP 0.29 → 1.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Odle (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.86	26.1%	10.4%	203	-0.56	—	—	—
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.79	22.7%	9.3%	231	-0.03	3.69	326	84
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	79
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	78
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	77
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	77
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	77
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	76
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	76
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	75
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	75
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	74
Carlos Tavera R 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	25.4%	15.9%	4.0%	.285	5.34	19.1%	4.1%	180	+0.20	3.85	263	74
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	74
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	74
Lyon Richardson R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	23.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.299	3.95	19.2%	8.3%	243	-0.42	3.69	538	73
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	73
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	73
Richard Guasch R 2021 · 5.50 FIP	23	SP-	5.50	20.5%	15.3%	4.0%	.293	4.01	22.5%	6.7%	90	-1.49	2.94	316	73
Kyle Nicolas R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP	4.41	21.0%	13.3%	2.5%	.266	3.96	23.4%	11.8%	227	-0.45	3.25	464	73
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	63	26.1%	15.8%	1.17	4.97
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*