Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 25.0% | -8.3% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 4.86 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 25.0% | -8.3% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 5.60 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 52 | 231 | 69 | 37 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | 20.5% | 21.2% | -0.7% | 0.7% | 5.92 | 4.44 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 52 | 231 | 69 | 37 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | 29.9% | 16.0% | 13.9% | 0.4% | 5.92 | 2.83 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 16 | 14 | 61 | 266 | 89 | 39 | 7 | 88% | 3.8 | 25.2% | 17.0% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 2.93 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | STL | 9 | 9 | 45 | 188 | 38 | 36 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 20.4% | 19.3% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 5.73 | 5.73 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.4% | 19.3% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 5.73 | 5.73 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | STL | — | — | 106 | 454 | 127 | 75 | 12 | — | — | 28.1% | 16.6% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 5.28 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | STL | 8 | 8 | 46 | 195 | 42 | 33 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 5.41 | 5.29 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | STL | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 44 | 30 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 14.9% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 5.13 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | STL | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 46 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 13.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | STL | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 46 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.84 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | STL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 200 | 46 | 27 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | STL | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 5.41 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | STL | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 31 | 21 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.1% | 14.9% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 5.13 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | STL | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 37 | 23 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.6% | 13.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | STL | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 40 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.84 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | STL | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 41 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.8% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 31 | 180 | 759 | 170 | 109 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.5% | 14.3% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 4.53 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 121 | 23 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.5% | 14.3% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 35 | 31 | 115 | 509 | 116 | 97 | 10 | 89% | 3.3 | 22.9% | 19.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 4.38 | 4.72 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 54 | 200 | 885 | 202 | 169 | 18 | 89% | 3.3 | 22.9% | 19.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 4.38 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Odle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.73 | 20.4% | 19.3% | 2.8% | — | 5.03 | 22.1% | 7.0% | 142 | -0.70 | — | — | — |
| Alex McFarlane R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.91 | 21.9% | 19.2% | 2.2% | .344 | 4.02 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 108 | -0.89 | 3.64 | 159 | 88 |
| Hunter Parks R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 18.9% | 19.3% | 2.3% | .265 | 4.94 | 19.9% | 3.0% | 116 | -0.28 | 3.51 | 278 | 85 |
| Steven Brooks R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.61 | 16.6% | 17.9% | 3.0% | .268 | 4.80 | 25.0% | 9.8% | 40 | -0.81 | 4.80 | 103 | 84 |
| Marco Jimenez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 2.7% | .372 | 4.06 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 148 | -1.10 | 3.36 | 183 | 83 |
| J.P. Massey R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 82 |
| Dane Acker R 2027 · 5.44 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.44 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 3.7% | .284 | 4.44 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 215 | -1.00 | 4.23 | 257 | 82 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 82 |
| Jacob Watters R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.70 | 18.3% | 17.1% | 1.8% | .319 | 4.54 | 17.0% | 5.1% | 81 | -0.16 | 3.96 | 165 | 82 |
| Kohl Franklin R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.37 | 17.8% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .320 | 5.45 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 105 | +0.08 | 5.37 | 174 | 82 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.98 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .294 | 3.81 | 16.9% | 3.9% | 66 | -1.17 | 3.56 | 112 | 81 |
| Ryan Degges R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.1% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .296 | 6.74 | 21.2% | 5.9% | 21 | +1.24 | 5.50 | 102 | 81 |
| Jackson Fristoe R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.78 | 17.0% | 24.2% | 1.9% | .258 | 6.42 | 15.6% | -2.0% | 110 | +0.64 | 4.79 | 138 | 80 |
| Holt Jones R 2027 · 6.75 FIP | 23 | SP | 6.75 | 17.9% | 19.5% | 4.9% | .296 | 4.76 | 18.4% | 0.8% | 147 | -1.99 | 4.13 | 217 | 79 |
| Khristian Curtis R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.58 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 183 | -0.81 | 4.52 | 258 | 79 |
| Aidan Foeller R 2027 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.74 | 22.7% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.45 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 50 | -0.29 | 4.45 | 149 | 79 |
| Joey Oakie R 2024 · 5.67 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.67 | 18.9% | 22.6% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 105 | 78 |
| Anderson Brito R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.73 | 22.2% | 16.5% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 135 | 78 |
| Peyton Pallette R 2026 · 5.97 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.97 | 18.0% | 15.1% | 4.5% | .254 | 4.31 | 23.6% | 11.6% | 183 | -1.66 | 3.80 | 255 | 78 |
| Wilian Bormie R 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.64 | 21.6% | 20.4% | 3.2% | .275 | 4.00 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 184 | -1.64 | 3.21 | 207 | 77 |
| Fernando Baez R 2027 · 6.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.58 | 18.6% | 18.8% | 4.9% | .322 | 4.51 | 26.9% | 7.8% | 94 | -2.07 | 3.43 | 129 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 47 | 22.0% | 15.3% | 1.07 | 5.14 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |