Dylan Jordan

P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTFG #515MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP41ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	MIX2 levels	19	19	76	2.36	2.56	26.7%	9.4%	—	K 18.7% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.82
2026	20	MIX2 levels	22	22	97	4.81	3.39	32.9%	12.7%	—	K 24.5% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.77
2027PROJ	21	MLBLAA	14	14	68	4.92	4.92	23.5%	13.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBLAA	9	9	45	4.73	4.62	24.2%	11.9%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBLAA	13	13	70	4.52	4.40	24.8%	10.7%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control50Command50FB velo52

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 78%

CompsCJ Van Eyk (age 22) · Tanner Burns (age 22) · TJ Shook (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%23.5%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD3550

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$7M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$11M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	76	318	85	30	3	100%	4.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	1.5%	2.36	3.82	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	76	318	85	30	3	100%	4.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	1.5%	2.36	3.82	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	76	318	85	30	3	100%	4.0	26.7%	9.4%	17.3%	0.9%	2.36	2.56	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	97	416	137	53	11	100%	4.4	24.5%	14.9%	9.6%	3.4%	4.81	4.77	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	97	416	137	53	11	100%	4.4	24.5%	14.9%	9.6%	3.4%	4.81	4.77	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	97	416	137	53	11	100%	4.4	32.9%	12.7%	20.2%	2.6%	4.81	3.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	LAA	14	14	68	287	67	39	9	100%	4.9	23.5%	13.7%	9.8%	3.1%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	92	388	94	46	12	100%	5.1	24.2%	11.9%	12.4%	3.0%	4.70	4.59	+0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	96	403	100	43	12	100%	5.3	24.8%	10.7%	14.1%	3.0%	4.49	4.37	+0.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	98	413	104	41	12	100%	5.8	25.2%	10.0%	15.3%	2.9%	4.33	4.23	+0.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	99	418	107	40	12	100%	5.8	25.5%	9.5%	16.0%	2.9%	4.21	4.14	+0.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	99	418	108	40	12	100%	5.8	25.7%	9.5%	16.2%	2.9%	4.15	4.12	+0.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	98	412	106	39	12	100%	6.1	25.7%	9.6%	16.2%	3.0%	4.15	4.15	+0.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	95	400	102	39	12	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.7%	15.9%	3.1%	4.20	4.24	+0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	90	382	97	38	12	100%	6.0	25.3%	9.9%	15.4%	3.2%	4.30	4.37	+0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	85	359	90	37	12	100%	6.1	25.0%	10.2%	14.8%	3.4%	4.45	4.55	+0.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	79	335	89	33	12	100%	6.1	26.6%	9.8%	16.8%	3.7%	4.47	4.48	+0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	73	310	81	32	12	100%	6.1	26.1%	10.2%	16.0%	3.9%	4.61	4.70	+0.2
2039	33	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	67	284	73	30	12	100%	6.1	25.6%	10.6%	15.0%	4.2%	4.82	4.96	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	45	190	46	23	6	100%	5.0	24.2%	11.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.73	4.62	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	70	296	73	32	9	100%	5.4	24.8%	10.7%	14.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.40	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	81	342	86	34	10	100%	5.8	25.2%	10.0%	15.3%	3.0%	4.36	4.26	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	88	372	95	35	11	100%	5.9	25.5%	9.5%	16.0%	3.0%	4.24	4.17	+0.8
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	90	380	98	36	11	100%	6.0	25.7%	9.5%	16.2%	3.0%	4.18	4.15	+0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	91	384	99	37	12	100%	6.1	25.7%	9.6%	16.2%	3.0%	4.18	4.18	+0.8
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	89	376	96	36	12	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.7%	15.9%	3.1%	4.23	4.27	+0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	86	363	92	36	12	100%	6.1	25.3%	9.9%	15.4%	3.3%	4.34	4.41	+0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	81	342	85	35	12	100%	5.8	25.0%	10.2%	14.8%	3.5%	4.49	4.59	+0.3
2037	31	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	75	317	84	31	12	100%	6.2	26.6%	9.8%	16.8%	3.7%	4.51	4.52	+0.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	70	296	77	30	12	100%	5.8	26.1%	10.2%	16.0%	4.0%	4.65	4.74	+0.2
2039	33	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	64	270	69	29	12	100%	5.8	25.6%	10.6%	15.0%	4.3%	4.87	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		159	159	929	3921	1000	393	130	100%	5.8	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	3.3%	4.41	4.03	+9.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	215	85	28	100%	5.8	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	3.3%	4.41	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		41	41	174	734	162	99	19	100%	4.2	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	2.6%	3.73	4.35	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	47	200	845	186	114	22	100%	4.2	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	2.6%	3.73	4.35	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Jordan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	23.5%	13.7%	3.1%	—	4.39	24.8%	14.0%	285	-0.53	—	—	—
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	91
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	88
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	87
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	86
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	84
Rick Van Den Hurk R 2007 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP	4.88	21.6%	11.3%	4.0%	.331	4.31	21.2%	12.5%	90	-0.57	3.27	172	84
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	84
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	84
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	83
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	83
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	83
Adrian Heredia R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.38	14.9%	1.8%	104	+1.61	3.34	149	82
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	82
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	82
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.08	17.8%	6.3%	296	+0.09	4.14	536	82
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	81
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	81
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.37	20.4%	10.5%	363	-0.47	3.89	479	81
Jack Leiter R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	22	SP	5.05	20.8%	14.5%	3.4%	.309	4.39	24.2%	13.0%	346	-0.66	3.90	519	81
Blake Rivera R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	21	SP	3.85	20.3%	14.5%	1.1%	.298	3.89	19.8%	8.3%	61	+0.04	3.72	179	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	88	25.3%	10.3%	1.24	4.42
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*
Juan Berenguer ('78-'92, 9 WAR*)	6.0	100	26.4%*	11.6%*	1.13*	4.14*
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Brandon Morrow ('18)	4.3	78	24.0%	10.1%	0.92	3.96