Kiefer Lord
P
Frederick Keys
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%23.6%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.70 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.60 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 3 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 2.6 | 34.3% | 20.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 3.52 | 2.74 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 3 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 2.6 | 34.3% | 20.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 3.52 | 2.71 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 14 | 14 | 52 | 235 | 84 | 29 | 2 | 100% | 3.7 | 27.1% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 1.1% | 5.02 | 3.21 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 36 | 154 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.6% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.38 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 88 | 389 | 120 | 44 | 7 | — | — | 31.0% | 11.2% | 19.7% | 1.7% | 4.73 | 3.67 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.6% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.00 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 36 | 153 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 35 | 149 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.30 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 16 | 98 | 415 | 100 | 38 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 3.96 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 204 | 77 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 18 | 17 | 62 | 277 | 77 | 42 | 2 | 94% | 3.4 | 27.7% | 15.0% | 12.7% | 0.9% | 4.67 | 3.16 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 55 | 200 | 898 | 249 | 135 | 8 | 94% | 3.4 | 27.7% | 15.0% | 12.7% | 0.9% | 4.67 | 3.16 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kiefer Lord (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.24 | 24.1% | 14.9% | 110 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 89 |
| Brendan Beck R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 85 |
| Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 81 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 79 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 77 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 77 |
| Angel Jimenez R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.95 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 194 | 76 |
| Cole Sands R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.57 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .269 | 3.64 | 25.1% | 17.3% | 216 | +0.07 | 2.28 | 473 | 75 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 75 |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.18 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .338 | 3.72 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 297 | -0.46 | 3.11 | 420 | 74 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 74 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 74 |
| Brooks Auger R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 26.3% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 138 | 74 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.20 | 21.9% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.98 | 26.8% | 18.7% | 54 | -0.22 | 3.63 | 209 | 74 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 74 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 74 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.53 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .310 | 4.16 | 22.1% | 13.7% | 194 | +0.63 | 3.53 | 352 | 74 |
| Nick Dean R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.05 | 21.6% | 7.8% | 3.3% | .358 | 2.73 | 21.9% | 15.6% | 47 | -1.32 | 2.73 | 202 | 74 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.59 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 345 | -0.39 | 2.15 | 702 | 73 |
| Octavio Acosta R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.37 | 15.5% | 5.6% | 3.4% | .337 | 4.27 | 16.3% | 4.8% | 184 | -0.10 | 3.80 | 333 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 36 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 1.15 | 4.28 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |