Kiefer Lord

P Frederick Keys

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1485ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	ROKBAL	1	0	2	0.00	3.60	14.3%	14.3%	—	K 14.3% · BB 14.3% · FIP 3.70
2025	23	ABAL	3	3	8	3.52	2.71	34.3%	20.0%	—	K 34.3% · BB 20.0% · FIP 2.74
2026	24	MIX2 levels	15	14	53	4.92	2.12	35.1%	12.6%	—	K 26.6% · BB 14.5% · FIP 3.27
2027PROJ	25	MLBBAL	—	—	0	4.59	4.59	26.5%	14.7%	—
2028PROJ31% MLB	26	MLBBAL	3	3	19	4.62	4.62	26.4%	14.1%	0.2
2029PROJ48% MLB	27	MLBBAL	5	5	29	4.62	4.64	26.2%	13.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 3.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsLuis Quiñones (age 25) · Jaxon Wiggins (age 22) · Brody McCullough (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%26.5%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	1	0	2	7	1	1	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.70	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	1	0	2	7	1	1	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.60	—
2025	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	3	3	8	35	12	7	0	100%	2.6	34.3%	20.0%	14.3%	0.0%	3.52	2.74	—
2025	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	3	3	8	35	12	7	0	100%	2.6	34.3%	20.0%	14.3%	0.0%	3.52	2.74	—
2025	23	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	3	3	8	35	12	7	0	100%	2.6	34.3%	20.0%	14.3%	0.0%	3.52	2.71	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	53	239	84	30	2	93%	3.5	26.6%	14.5%	12.1%	1.0%	4.92	3.27	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	53	239	84	30	2	93%	3.5	26.6%	14.5%	12.1%	1.0%	4.92	3.27	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	53	239	84	30	2	93%	3.5	35.1%	12.6%	22.6%	0.8%	4.92	2.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	26.5%	14.7%	11.8%	2.7%	4.59	4.59	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	63	268	71	38	7	100%	5.8	26.4%	14.1%	12.3%	2.8%	4.55	4.55	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	59	250	65	34	7	100%	5.9	26.2%	13.8%	12.4%	2.8%	4.55	4.57	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	56	235	61	32	7	100%	6.2	25.9%	13.7%	12.2%	2.9%	4.60	4.64	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	51	217	55	30	7	100%	5.7	25.6%	13.8%	11.8%	3.1%	4.69	4.76	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	3	3	19	80	21	11	2	100%	6.3	26.4%	14.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.62	4.62	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	5	5	29	122	32	17	4	100%	5.8	26.2%	13.8%	12.4%	2.9%	4.62	4.64	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	34	144	37	20	4	100%	5.7	25.9%	13.7%	12.2%	3.1%	4.67	4.71	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	35	148	38	20	5	100%	5.8	25.6%	13.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.77	4.84	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	20	117	494	128	68	15	100%	5.9	26.0%	13.8%	12.1%	3.1%	4.68	4.33	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	219	116	26	100%	6.0	26.0%	13.8%	12.1%	3.1%	4.68	4.33	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		19	17	63	281	77	43	2	89%	3.3	27.3%	15.2%	12.1%	0.9%	4.60	3.21	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	54	200	897	245	136	8	89%	3.3	27.3%	15.2%	12.1%	0.9%	4.60	3.21	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 33 IPFIP 2.87 → 3.98 (+1.11)K% 33.3% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.770	25.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.67%	—	×1.150	16.87%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.87 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 20 IPFIP 1.01 → 2.06 (+1.04)K% 38.2% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.20%	—	×0.740	28.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.99%	—	×1.180	10.61%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.01 → 2.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 8 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.95 (+1.21)K% 34.3% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.29%	—	×0.740	25.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×1.180	23.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.899	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kiefer Lord (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.58	26.2%	12.3%	178	-0.01	—	—	—
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	83
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	77
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	77
George Klassen R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.0%	13.6%	1.7%	.299	4.01	20.6%	9.1%	221	+0.51	3.50	314	77
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	76
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	76
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	76
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	76
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	75
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	74
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	73
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	73
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	73
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	73
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	73
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	72
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	72
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	72
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	71
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	60	26.2%	14.1%	1.10	4.59
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*