Kiefer Lord — OGILVIE

Kiefer Lord P Frederick Keys

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%24.3%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	1	0	2	7	1	1	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.70	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	1	0	2	7	1	1	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.70	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	1	0	2	7	1	1	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.60	—
2025	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	3	3	8	35	12	7	0	100%	2.6	34.3%	20.0%	14.3%	0.0%	3.52	2.74	—
2025	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	3	3	8	35	12	7	0	100%	2.6	34.3%	20.0%	14.3%	0.0%	3.52	2.74	—
2025	23	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	3	3	8	35	12	7	0	100%	2.6	34.3%	20.0%	14.3%	0.0%	3.52	2.71	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	15	14	53	239	84	30	2	93%	3.5	26.6%	14.5%	12.1%	1.0%	4.92	3.27	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	15	14	53	239	84	30	2	93%	3.5	26.6%	14.5%	12.1%	1.0%	4.92	3.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	BAL	5	5	20	89	34	8	0	100%	4.1	38.2%	9.0%	29.2%	0.0%	3.98	1.01	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	BAL	10	9	33	150	50	22	2	90%	3.3	33.3%	14.7%	18.7%	1.3%	5.51	2.87	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	52	222	54	24	7	100%	5.8	24.6%	10.7%	13.8%	2.9%	4.43	4.38	+0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	52	222	55	23	7	100%	5.8	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	2.9%	4.38	4.35	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	52	218	54	23	7	100%	5.7	24.6%	10.6%	14.0%	3.0%	4.38	4.39	+0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	23	97	24	10	3	100%	5.8	24.6%	10.7%	13.8%	3.1%	4.50	4.45	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	35	148	36	16	5	100%	5.8	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	3.1%	4.45	4.42	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	40	169	42	18	5	100%	5.7	24.6%	10.6%	14.0%	3.1%	4.45	4.46	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	16	97	411	101	44	13	100%	6.1	24.6%	10.6%	14.0%	3.1%	4.46	4.07	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	207	90	27	100%	6.0	24.6%	10.6%	14.0%	3.1%	4.46	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		19	17	63	281	77	43	2	89%	3.3	27.3%	15.2%	12.1%	0.9%	4.60	3.21	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	54	200	897	245	136	8	89%	3.3	27.3%	15.2%	12.1%	0.9%	4.60	3.21	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kiefer Lord (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	24.3%	11.6%	2.9%	—	4.37	24.6%	14.0%	157	-0.15	—	—	—
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	87
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	85
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	80
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	79
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	79
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	79
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	77
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	77
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	77
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	76
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.55	24.9%	17.3%	216	-0.12	2.28	474	76
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	76
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	76
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	75
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	75
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	73
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	73
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	73
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	24.6%	10.8%	1.14	4.42
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68