Bryan Balzer
P
Lake Elsinore Storm
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA5.24
FIP5.24
K%17.0%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%4.2%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 6 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 6.43 | 2.44 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 6 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 6.43 | 2.39 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 16 | 13 | 50 | 241 | 49 | 28 | 3 | 81% | 3.1 | 15.0% | 13.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 7.92 | 4.58 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 16 | 13 | 50 | 241 | 49 | 28 | 3 | 81% | 3.1 | 20.3% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 1.2% | 7.92 | 3.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 15 | 14 | 73 | 312 | 73 | 28 | 8 | 93% | 4.8 | 17.5% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.78 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 42 | 177 | 30 | 23 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.0% | 12.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 5.24 | 5.24 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.0% | 12.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 5.19 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 115 | 489 | 103 | 51 | 13 | — | — | 21.1% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.95 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 44 | 186 | 36 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 46 | 193 | 40 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 42 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 43 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 43 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 45 | 192 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 29 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 35 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 38 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 40 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 40 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 39 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 46 | 46 | 265 | 1119 | 239 | 113 | 30 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.06 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 180 | 85 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 37 | 29 | 130 | 585 | 98 | 69 | 15 | 78% | 3.5 | 16.7% | 11.8% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 6.04 | 4.57 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 45 | 200 | 902 | 151 | 106 | 23 | 78% | 3.5 | 16.7% | 11.8% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 6.04 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Balzer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.24 | 17.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.65 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 137 | -0.59 | — | — | — |
| Luis Hernandez R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.86 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 6.15 | 21.4% | 4.1% | 64 | +1.29 | 4.16 | 109 | 94 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.98 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .294 | 3.81 | 16.9% | 3.9% | 66 | -1.17 | 3.56 | 112 | 91 |
| Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.48 | 19.6% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.44 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 148 | -0.04 | 2.88 | 245 | 89 |
| Abel Brito R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.94 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .310 | 5.83 | 13.2% | -8.6% | 70 | +0.89 | 4.13 | 147 | 89 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 87 |
| Christian Roa R 2027 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 85 |
| Camilo Sanchez R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.31 | 15.2% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .289 | 7.22 | 13.9% | -0.3% | 19 | +1.91 | 3.66 | 117 | 85 |
| John Klein R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.59 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.12 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 264 | -0.47 | 3.23 | 317 | 85 |
| Khristian Curtis R 2027 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.58 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 183 | -0.81 | 4.52 | 258 | 85 |
| Henry Williams R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.43 | 16.5% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .271 | 4.77 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 293 | -0.66 | 4.06 | 360 | 85 |
| Jared Lyons R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 1.9% | .345 | 3.85 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 164 | -0.55 | 3.27 | 218 | 84 |
| Reid Schaller R 2027 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 16.3% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .241 | 4.48 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 87 | -0.74 | 3.49 | 186 | 84 |
| Jeremy Lee R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.8% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .318 | 5.28 | 11.2% | -0.5% | 46 | +1.22 | 4.06 | 125 | 84 |
| Kamdyn Perry R 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.18 | 18.6% | 12.8% | 3.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.18 | 123 | 84 |
| Elias Espino R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.14 | 14.3% | 10.5% | 1.7% | .336 | 5.60 | 17.1% | 3.7% | 56 | +1.46 | 3.04 | 142 | 83 |
| Abel Duarte R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.84 | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.93 | 13.9% | 6.7% | 79 | -0.91 | 3.19 | 127 | 83 |
| Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 83 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 83 |
| Andrew Cabezas R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .210 | 4.78 | 16.7% | 6.9% | 185 | +0.19 | 4.23 | 300 | 82 |
| Luke Gabrysh R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.59 | 13.8% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .271 | 5.55 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 59 | +0.96 | 4.59 | 138 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 46 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 1.09 | 4.66 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |