Bryan Balzer

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#512ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKSD	6	2	7	6.43	2.39	21.9%	9.4%	—	K 21.9% · BB 9.4% · FIP 2.44
2025	20	ASD	16	13	50	7.92	3.60	20.3%	11.6%	—	K 15.0% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.52
2026	21	MIX2 levels	23	21	99	4.74	3.85	22.7%	10.9%	—	K 17.1% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.87
2027PROJ	22	MLBSD	—	—	0	5.23	5.23	18.0%	13.3%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSD	7	7	36	5.02	4.92	19.7%	11.8%	0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBSD	9	9	51	4.81	4.70	20.8%	10.9%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 3.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsRyan Harvey (age 22) · Jeremy Lee (age 22) · Aaron Hernandez (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%18.0%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	6	2	7	32	7	3	0	33%	1.2	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	0.0%	6.43	2.44	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	6	2	7	32	7	3	0	33%	1.2	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	0.0%	6.43	2.44	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	6	2	7	32	7	3	0	33%	1.2	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	0.0%	6.43	2.39	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	16	13	50	241	49	28	3	81%	3.1	15.0%	13.7%	1.3%	1.7%	7.92	4.52	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	16	13	50	241	49	28	3	81%	3.1	15.0%	13.7%	1.3%	1.7%	7.92	4.52	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	16	13	50	241	49	28	3	81%	3.1	20.3%	11.6%	8.7%	1.2%	7.92	3.60	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	99	440	100	48	10	91%	4.3	17.1%	12.7%	4.4%	2.9%	4.74	4.87	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	99	440	100	48	10	91%	4.3	17.1%	12.7%	4.4%	2.9%	4.74	4.87	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	99	440	100	48	10	91%	4.3	22.7%	10.9%	11.8%	2.3%	4.74	3.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.0%	13.3%	4.7%	2.9%	5.23	5.23	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	73	307	60	36	9	100%	5.2	19.7%	11.8%	7.9%	2.8%	4.98	4.88	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	73	307	64	33	9	100%	5.6	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	2.8%	4.77	4.66	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	66	277	59	29	8	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.3%	11.0%	2.8%	4.62	4.54	+0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	65	276	60	28	8	100%	5.9	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	2.8%	4.54	4.50	+0.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	64	269	58	28	8	100%	5.8	21.6%	10.3%	11.3%	2.9%	4.54	4.54	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	61	256	55	27	8	100%	6.1	21.5%	10.4%	11.0%	3.0%	4.59	4.62	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	56	237	50	25	7	100%	6.2	21.2%	10.7%	10.6%	3.1%	4.69	4.75	+0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	51	215	45	24	7	100%	6.4	20.9%	11.0%	9.9%	3.3%	4.83	4.93	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	36	152	30	18	4	100%	5.1	19.7%	11.8%	7.9%	2.9%	5.02	4.92	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	51	215	45	23	6	100%	5.7	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	2.9%	4.81	4.70	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	53	224	48	23	6	100%	5.9	21.3%	10.3%	11.0%	2.9%	4.66	4.58	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	57	241	52	25	7	100%	5.7	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	2.9%	4.58	4.54	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	57	241	52	25	7	100%	5.7	21.6%	10.3%	11.3%	2.9%	4.58	4.58	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	56	236	51	25	7	100%	6.2	21.5%	10.4%	11.0%	3.1%	4.63	4.66	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	52	220	47	23	7	100%	5.8	21.2%	10.7%	10.6%	3.2%	4.73	4.79	+0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	48	203	42	22	7	100%	6.0	20.9%	11.0%	9.9%	3.4%	4.88	4.98	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	70	410	1731	366	184	52	100%	5.9	21.2%	10.6%	10.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.32	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	179	90	25	100%	5.9	21.2%	10.6%	10.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.32	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		45	36	156	713	119	92	17	80%	3.5	16.6%	12.9%	3.7%	2.4%	5.84	4.64	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	46	200	916	152	118	22	80%	3.5	16.6%	12.9%	3.7%	2.4%	5.84	4.64	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 60 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.91 (+1.14)K% 22.6% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.62%	—	×0.740	16.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.180	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.61%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 38 IPFIP 3.86 → 4.80 (+0.94)K% 22.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.87%	—	×0.770	17.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.36%	—	×1.150	16.52%
HR / BF /BF	1.60%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.99%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.86 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 50 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.52 (+0.98)K% 20.3% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.33%	—	×0.740	15.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.62%	—	×1.180	13.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.24%	÷0.936	×1.300	1.73%

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Padres · 7 IPFIP 2.44 → 3.33 (+0.89)K% 21.9% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.88%	—	×0.680	14.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.250	11.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.892	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.44 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Balzer (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.70	20.6%	9.6%	211	-0.53	—	—	—
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	89
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	89
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	88
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	87
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	87
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	87
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	87
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	87
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	86
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	86
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	86
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	85
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	85
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	85
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	84
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	84
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.83	17.8%	6.5%	200	+0.57	4.26	292	84
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	84
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	84
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	64	20.7%	11.0%	1.13	4.76
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*