Bryan Balzer — OGILVIE

Bryan Balzer P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%17.0%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%3.2%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL—45

CMD3045

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.1M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	6	2	7	32	7	3	0	33%	1.2	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	0.0%	6.43	2.44	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	6	2	7	32	7	3	0	33%	1.2	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	0.0%	6.43	2.44	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	6	2	7	32	7	3	0	33%	1.2	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	0.0%	6.43	2.39	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	16	13	50	241	49	28	3	81%	3.1	15.0%	13.7%	1.3%	1.7%	7.92	4.52	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	16	13	50	241	49	28	3	81%	3.1	15.0%	13.7%	1.3%	1.7%	7.92	4.52	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	16	13	50	241	49	28	3	81%	3.1	20.3%	11.6%	8.7%	1.2%	7.92	3.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	23	21	99	440	100	48	10	91%	4.3	17.1%	12.7%	4.4%	2.9%	4.74	4.87	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	23	21	99	440	100	48	10	91%	4.3	17.1%	12.7%	4.4%	2.9%	4.74	4.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	SD	12	11	60	252	57	21	7	92%	5.0	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	2.8%	4.48	3.77	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	SD	11	10	38	188	43	27	3	91%	3.5	22.9%	14.4%	8.5%	1.6%	5.17	3.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	101	428	82	52	12	100%	5.1	19.0%	12.1%	7.0%	2.8%	5.06	4.94	-0.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	105	444	90	49	12	100%	5.3	20.3%	11.0%	9.3%	2.8%	4.81	4.68	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	108	455	96	47	13	100%	5.7	21.1%	10.3%	10.7%	2.8%	4.63	4.52	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	109	461	99	46	13	100%	5.7	21.4%	9.9%	11.5%	2.7%	4.51	4.43	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	109	461	100	46	13	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.9%	11.8%	2.7%	4.45	4.41	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	108	454	98	45	13	100%	6.0	21.6%	10.0%	11.7%	2.8%	4.45	4.45	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	104	440	95	45	13	100%	6.1	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	2.9%	4.50	4.53	+0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	100	421	89	44	13	100%	5.9	21.3%	10.4%	10.9%	3.0%	4.60	4.67	+0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	94	395	83	42	13	100%	5.8	20.9%	10.7%	10.3%	3.2%	4.75	4.84	+0.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	87	369	76	41	13	100%	5.8	20.5%	11.0%	9.5%	3.5%	4.93	5.05	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	50	211	40	25	6	100%	5.0	19.0%	12.1%	7.0%	2.9%	5.10	4.98	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	77	325	66	36	9	100%	5.5	20.3%	11.0%	9.3%	2.8%	4.85	4.72	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	89	376	79	39	11	100%	5.6	21.1%	10.3%	10.7%	2.8%	4.67	4.56	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	96	405	87	40	11	100%	6.0	21.4%	9.9%	11.5%	2.8%	4.55	4.47	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	17	17	100	422	91	42	12	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.9%	11.8%	2.8%	4.49	4.45	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	17	17	100	422	91	42	12	100%	5.9	21.6%	10.0%	11.7%	2.9%	4.49	4.49	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	98	414	89	42	12	100%	6.1	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	3.0%	4.54	4.57	+0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	95	401	85	42	13	100%	5.9	21.3%	10.4%	10.9%	3.1%	4.64	4.71	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	SD	15	15	89	376	79	40	12	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.7%	10.3%	3.3%	4.79	4.88	+0.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	83	350	72	39	12	100%	5.9	20.5%	11.0%	9.5%	3.6%	4.98	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		150	150	876	3697	779	386	111	100%	5.8	21.1%	10.4%	10.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.29	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	178	88	25	100%	5.8	21.1%	10.4%	10.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		45	36	156	713	119	92	17	80%	3.5	16.6%	12.9%	3.7%	2.4%	5.84	4.64	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	46	200	916	152	118	22	80%	3.5	16.6%	12.9%	3.7%	2.4%	5.84	4.64	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Balzer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	17.0%	13.8%	2.8%	—	4.71	20.2%	9.1%	314	-0.64	—	—	—
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	97
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	91
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	89
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	88
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	86
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	85
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	85
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	85
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	84
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	84
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	83
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	83
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	82
Evan Johnson R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP	4.42	15.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.287	4.56	25.7%	8.6%	65	+0.14	4.42	103	82
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	82
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	82
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	81
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	97	20.8%	10.6%	1.13	4.69
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98