Francisco Morao — OGILVIE

Francisco Morao P FCL Orioles

Age 20 LHP 6'2" / 178 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 133

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%20.8%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	11	11	39	174	52	21	2	100%	3.6	20.3%	15.1%	5.2%	1.8%	3.89	4.30	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	11	11	39	174	52	21	2	100%	3.6	20.3%	15.1%	5.2%	1.8%	3.89	4.30	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	11	11	39	174	52	21	2	100%	3.6	29.9%	12.1%	17.8%	1.1%	3.89	2.72	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	10	8	24	118	26	18	0	80%	2.4	15.0%	19.1%	-4.1%	0.0%	7.40	4.25	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	10	8	24	118	26	18	0	80%	2.4	15.0%	19.1%	-4.1%	0.0%	7.40	4.25	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	10	8	24	118	26	18	0	80%	2.4	22.0%	15.3%	6.8%	0.0%	7.40	3.18	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	9	6	35	151	42	19	1	67%	3.9	18.9%	15.7%	3.2%	0.9%	3.38	4.00	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	9	6	35	151	42	19	1	67%	3.9	18.9%	15.7%	3.2%	0.9%	3.38	4.00	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	9	6	35	151	42	19	1	67%	3.9	27.8%	12.6%	15.2%	0.7%	3.38	2.70	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	17	9	56	240	67	33	5	53%	3.3	19.6%	16.8%	2.8%	2.8%	4.50	5.11	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	17	9	56	240	67	33	5	53%	3.3	19.6%	16.8%	2.8%	2.8%	4.50	5.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	BAL	10	7	34	139	44	19	2	70%	3.4	31.7%	13.7%	18.0%	1.4%	3.15	2.95	—
2026	20	A RAW	BAL	7	2	22	101	23	14	3	29%	3.1	22.8%	13.9%	8.9%	3.0%	6.65	4.56	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	58	243	52	32	7	100%	5.2	21.5%	13.4%	8.1%	2.8%	5.00	4.90	0.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	60	255	57	30	7	100%	5.0	22.5%	11.8%	10.7%	2.8%	4.74	4.59	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	63	265	62	29	7	100%	5.2	23.3%	10.8%	12.5%	2.7%	4.52	4.38	+0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	64	271	65	28	7	100%	5.8	23.8%	10.1%	13.7%	2.7%	4.35	4.24	+0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	65	275	67	27	7	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.7%	14.5%	2.7%	4.23	4.15	+0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	65	275	67	27	7	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.7%	14.8%	2.7%	4.17	4.12	+0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	64	271	66	26	7	100%	5.8	24.4%	9.7%	14.7%	2.7%	4.16	4.16	+0.6
2027	21	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	28	118	25	16	3	100%	4.7	21.5%	13.4%	8.1%	2.9%	5.07	4.97	0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	44	186	42	22	5	100%	4.9	22.5%	11.8%	10.7%	2.9%	4.81	4.66	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	53	224	52	24	6	100%	5.3	23.3%	10.8%	12.5%	2.9%	4.59	4.45	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	57	241	57	24	7	100%	5.7	23.8%	10.1%	13.7%	2.8%	4.42	4.31	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	60	253	61	25	7	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.7%	14.5%	2.8%	4.30	4.22	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	61	258	63	25	7	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.7%	14.8%	2.8%	4.24	4.19	+0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	61	258	63	25	7	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.7%	14.7%	2.9%	4.23	4.23	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	65	364	1536	364	161	44	100%	5.6	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	2.9%	4.46	3.99	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	200	89	24	100%	5.6	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	2.9%	4.46	3.99	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		47	34	154	683	129	113	11	72%	3.3	18.8%	16.5%	2.3%	1.7%	4.55	4.51	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	44	200	885	167	146	15	72%	3.3	18.8%	16.5%	2.3%	1.7%	4.55	4.51	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francisco Morao (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	20.8%	15.3%	2.9%	—	4.62	22.5%	10.5%	181	-0.61	—	—	—
Raúl Alcantara L 2021 · 4.31 FIP	20	SP-	4.31	19.6%	12.8%	2.3%	.295	4.50	19.0%	4.2%	229	+0.19	3.82	396	80
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	79
Carlos Meza L 2021 · 5.03 FIP	20	SP-	5.03	15.5%	12.2%	3.1%	.325	4.67	20.6%	4.4%	138	-0.36	3.72	229	78
Elier Morillo L 2023 · 4.12 FIP	17	SP-	4.12	18.1%	12.7%	1.7%	.418	4.31	28.7%	8.3%	89	+0.19	2.67	115	78
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	76
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	76
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	76
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	76
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	75
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	75
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	74
Eric Dominguez L 2023 · 4.28 FIP	20	SP-	4.28	24.3%	16.1%	2.2%	.371	4.07	20.4%	7.5%	85	-0.21	3.81	140	74
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	74
Armando Vasquez L 2022 · 4.22 FIP	21	SP-	4.22	14.7%	14.7%	0.9%	.318	5.52	21.2%	3.2%	94	+1.30	4.22	131	73
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	73
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	73
Ryan Lawlor L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP	4.17	14.8%	13.0%	1.2%	.286	3.24	20.1%	8.1%	107	-0.93	2.24	201	73
Steven Pérez L 2021 · 5.07 FIP	20	SW	5.07	18.3%	11.4%	3.8%	.305	4.81	20.2%	5.6%	116	-0.26	3.71	354	73
Manuel Osorio L 2023 · 4.83 FIP	17	SP-	4.83	15.5%	17.7%	1.4%	.276	4.91	16.8%	-0.2%	130	+0.08	3.90	168	73
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	57	23.4%	10.9%	1.06	4.47
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93