Francisco Morao

P FCL Orioles

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 178 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1084ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKBAL	10	8	24	7.40	3.18	22.0%	15.3%	—	K 15.0% · BB 19.1% · FIP 4.25
2025	19	ROKBAL	9	6	35	3.38	2.70	27.8%	12.6%	—	K 18.9% · BB 15.7% · FIP 4.00
2026	20	MIX2 levels	17	9	56	4.50	3.64	27.9%	13.8%	—	K 19.6% · BB 16.8% · FIP 5.11
2027PROJ	21	MLBBAL	—	—	0	5.38	5.38	20.4%	15.8%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBBAL	4	4	21	5.15	5.03	21.6%	13.5%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBBAL	6	6	32	4.89	4.75	22.5%	12.0%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsErik Rivera (age 23) · Felipe De La Cruz (age 21) · Bailey Horn (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.38

FIP5.38

K%20.4%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%4.6%

Proj IP32

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	11	11	39	174	52	21	2	100%	3.6	20.3%	15.1%	5.2%	1.8%	3.89	4.30	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	11	11	39	174	52	21	2	100%	3.6	29.9%	12.1%	17.8%	1.1%	3.89	2.72	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	10	8	24	118	26	18	0	80%	2.4	15.0%	19.1%	-4.1%	0.0%	7.40	4.25	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	10	8	24	118	26	18	0	80%	2.4	15.0%	19.1%	-4.1%	0.0%	7.40	4.25	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	10	8	24	118	26	18	0	80%	2.4	22.0%	15.3%	6.8%	0.0%	7.40	3.18	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	9	6	35	151	42	19	1	67%	3.9	18.9%	15.7%	3.2%	0.9%	3.38	4.00	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	9	6	35	151	42	19	1	67%	3.9	18.9%	15.7%	3.2%	0.9%	3.38	4.00	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	9	6	35	151	42	19	1	67%	3.9	27.8%	12.6%	15.2%	0.7%	3.38	2.70	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	9	56	240	67	33	5	53%	3.3	19.6%	16.8%	2.8%	2.8%	4.50	5.11	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	9	56	240	67	33	5	53%	3.3	19.6%	16.8%	2.8%	2.8%	4.50	5.11	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	9	56	240	67	33	5	53%	3.3	27.9%	13.8%	14.2%	2.1%	4.50	3.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.4%	15.8%	4.6%	3.0%	5.38	5.38	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	44	184	40	25	5	100%	4.8	21.6%	13.5%	8.1%	2.9%	5.08	4.96	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	44	184	41	22	5	100%	5.4	22.5%	12.0%	10.4%	2.9%	4.82	4.68	+0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	44	184	42	20	5	100%	5.4	23.1%	11.1%	12.0%	2.8%	4.61	4.49	+0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	BAL	7	7	42	179	42	19	5	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.4%	13.0%	2.8%	4.47	4.37	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	BAL	7	7	43	180	43	19	5	100%	6.1	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	2.8%	4.40	4.35	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	BAL	7	7	42	176	42	18	5	100%	5.9	23.6%	10.5%	13.2%	2.9%	4.39	4.39	+0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	21	89	19	12	3	100%	5.2	21.6%	13.5%	8.1%	3.0%	5.15	5.03	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	32	135	30	16	4	100%	5.3	22.5%	12.0%	10.4%	3.0%	4.89	4.75	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	36	152	35	17	5	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.1%	12.0%	3.0%	4.68	4.56	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	37	156	37	16	5	100%	6.2	23.5%	10.4%	13.0%	3.0%	4.54	4.44	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	39	165	39	17	5	100%	6.5	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	3.0%	4.47	4.42	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	39	165	39	17	5	100%	6.5	23.6%	10.5%	13.2%	3.0%	4.46	4.46	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	36	204	862	199	96	26	100%	5.7	23.1%	11.1%	12.0%	3.0%	4.66	4.19	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	195	94	25	100%	5.7	23.1%	11.1%	12.0%	3.0%	4.66	4.19	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		47	34	154	683	129	113	11	72%	3.3	18.8%	16.5%	2.3%	1.7%	4.55	4.51	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	44	200	885	167	146	15	72%	3.3	18.8%	16.5%	2.3%	1.7%	4.55	4.51	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Orioles · 34 IPFIP 2.95 → 4.55 (+1.60)K% 31.7% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.65%	—	×0.680	21.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.67%	—	×1.250	17.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.44%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.01%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.95 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 22 IPFIP 4.56 → 5.87 (+1.31)K% 22.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.77%	—	×0.740	16.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.86%	—	×1.180	16.36%
HR / BF /BF	2.97%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.86%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.56 → 5.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Orioles · 35 IPFIP 2.71 → 4.00 (+1.30)K% 27.8% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.81%	—	×0.680	18.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.58%	—	×1.250	15.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.66%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.93%

Result: FIP 2.71 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Orioles · 24 IPFIP 3.17 → 4.25 (+1.08)K% 22.0% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.03%	—	×0.680	14.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.25%	—	×1.250	19.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.995	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.17 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Orioles Black · 39 IPFIP 2.74 → 4.30 (+1.57)K% 29.9% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.89%	—	×0.680	20.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.07%	—	×1.250	15.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷0.875	×1.400	1.84%

Result: FIP 2.74 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francisco Morao (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	20.4%	15.8%	3.0%	—	4.71	22.4%	10.2%	130	-0.67	—	—	—
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	82
Felipe De La Cruz L 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP-	4.65	21.7%	14.5%	2.8%	.387	3.82	21.5%	10.1%	278	-0.83	3.11	397	81
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	80
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	79
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	79
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	78
Develson Aria L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	21	SP-	4.32	19.9%	12.2%	2.5%	.346	6.47	16.7%	-11.9%	47	+2.15	4.32	137	78
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	77
Jeremy Pilon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP-	4.86	22.1%	21.7%	1.6%	.279	4.10	17.9%	-1.9%	83	-0.76	3.99	144	77
Brandon Herbold L 2024 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP-	6.27	17.2%	17.6%	4.3%	.296	5.06	19.8%	-3.9%	44	-1.21	3.72	105	77
Luichi Casilla L 2024 · 4.62 FIP	19	SP-	4.62	22.4%	20.2%	1.6%	.372	2.62	25.7%	16.1%	34	-2.00	2.62	133	77
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	76
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	76
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	76
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	76
Julio Robaina L 2022 · 5.55 FIP	21	SP-	5.55	17.4%	16.9%	3.2%	.347	4.04	18.2%	8.7%	178	-1.51	2.72	453	75
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	75
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	75
Armando Vasquez L 2022 · 4.22 FIP	21	SP-	4.22	14.7%	14.7%	0.9%	.318	5.52	21.2%	3.2%	94	+1.30	4.22	131	75
Holden Laws L 2021 · 6.35 FIP	21	SP-	6.35	19.3%	15.6%	5.3%	.306	4.71	17.5%	7.1%	133	-1.64	2.96	190	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	41	22.7%	11.8%	1.11	4.72
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*