Francisco Morao
P
FCL Orioles
Age 20
LHP
6'2" / 178 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 19 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101111vR 120
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
K%22.7%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP19
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | 11 | 11 | 39 | 174 | 52 | 21 | 2 | 100% | 3.6 | 20.3% | 15.1% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 3.89 | 4.47 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | 11 | 11 | 39 | 174 | 52 | 21 | 2 | 100% | 3.6 | 29.9% | 12.1% | 17.8% | 1.1% | 3.89 | 2.72 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 10 | 8 | 24 | 118 | 26 | 18 | 0 | 80% | 2.4 | 15.0% | 19.1% | -4.1% | 0.0% | 7.40 | 4.25 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 10 | 8 | 24 | 118 | 26 | 18 | 0 | 80% | 2.4 | 22.0% | 15.3% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 7.40 | 3.18 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 9 | 6 | 35 | 151 | 42 | 19 | 1 | 67% | 3.9 | 18.9% | 15.7% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 3.38 | 4.00 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 9 | 6 | 35 | 151 | 42 | 19 | 1 | 67% | 3.9 | 27.8% | 12.6% | 15.2% | 0.7% | 3.38 | 2.70 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 9 | 7 | 33 | 131 | 42 | 18 | 1 | 78% | 3.6 | 21.8% | 17.2% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 2.76 | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 19 | 81 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.7% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 52 | 212 | 60 | 26 | 3 | — | — | 28.5% | 12.4% | 16.1% | 1.6% | 3.38 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 20 | 85 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BAL | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 3.92 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 844 | 202 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 39 | 32 | 131 | 574 | 110 | 95 | 7 | 82% | 3.4 | 19.2% | 16.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 4.12 | 4.20 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 49 | 200 | 876 | 168 | 145 | 10 | 82% | 3.4 | 19.2% | 16.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 4.12 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Francisco Morao (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.29 | 23.1% | 13.5% | 20 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Blake Townsend L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.11 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 96 | +0.15 | 3.40 | 263 | 88 |
| Jordan Woods L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.61 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .329 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 7.4% | 112 | -0.48 | 3.74 | 143 | 87 |
| Yereny Teus L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.59 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .276 | 3.80 | 23.0% | 7.5% | 68 | +0.21 | 2.98 | 166 | 84 |
| Johan Simon L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.42 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 1.3% | .302 | 4.50 | 17.6% | 1.1% | 41 | +1.08 | 3.42 | 158 | 83 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.43 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 81 |
| Benony Robles L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.58 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .262 | 5.00 | 19.2% | 4.5% | 135 | +1.42 | 3.58 | 271 | 81 |
| Pablo Aldonis L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.25 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .324 | 2.67 | 21.9% | 13.1% | 68 | -1.58 | 1.89 | 135 | 80 |
| Miguel Pozo L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.28 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 1.2% | .312 | 4.92 | 16.5% | -5.7% | 24 | +1.64 | 3.28 | 110 | 79 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.3% | .323 | 5.29 | 17.1% | 6.0% | 62 | +1.46 | 3.83 | 119 | 79 |
| Dalton Lehnen L 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.95 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .398 | 4.61 | 15.8% | 2.9% | 189 | +0.66 | 3.95 | 222 | 78 |
| Tommy Sommer L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.59 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 4.2% | .196 | 5.30 | 18.6% | 6.1% | 205 | +0.71 | 4.20 | 230 | 78 |
| Ryan Rolison L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.88 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .200 | 4.10 | 19.1% | 11.5% | 191 | +0.22 | 3.63 | 362 | 78 |
| Hogan Harris L 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.73 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .235 | 3.64 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.09 | 3.14 | 473 | 77 |
| Luis Moncada L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 1.5% | .278 | 3.85 | 17.6% | 5.7% | 68 | +0.04 | 3.81 | 296 | 77 |
| Antonio Jimenez L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .292 | 4.34 | 19.4% | 7.8% | 248 | +0.94 | 3.31 | 422 | 76 |
| Riley Frey L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .417 | 4.68 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 180 | +0.64 | 4.00 | 198 | 76 |
| Bryan Sammons L 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.91 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 228 | +0.31 | 3.53 | 688 | 75 |
| Fernando Sanchez L 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.05 | 24.8% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .318 | 3.89 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 213 | -0.16 | 3.12 | 303 | 75 |
| Ryan Wilson L 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.43 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .395 | 4.27 | 18.8% | 7.9% | 155 | +0.84 | 3.43 | 222 | 75 |
| Ryan Williamson L 2029 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.10 | 18.4% | 5.9% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.67 | 18.4% | 5.8% | 102 | +1.57 | 4.10 | 123 | 75 |