Jose Urbina
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
+0.8
WAR
Age 20
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 2.9 · 2032
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.5%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%11.9%
IP92
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.9peak
2032
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | FCL Rays | 11 | 8 | 24 | 105 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 13.6% | 14.3% | 6.0% | 5.32 | 7.05 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 17 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 57 | 29 | 8 | 14.5% | 13.2% | 4.4% | 4.71 | 5.97 | -0.7 |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 20 | 20 | 96 | 380 | 101 | 30 | 9 | 19.5% | 9.7% | 2.1% | 2.15 | 3.84 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 2 | 2 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 11.12 | — | — |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 92 | 390 | 84 | 37 | 12 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 20 | MLB | TB | — | — | 98 | 425 | 91 | 40 | 14 | 21.4% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.24 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 97 | 409 | 90 | 37 | 12 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.37 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 124 | 522 | 119 | 44 | 15 | 22.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.19 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 148 | 626 | 147 | 51 | 18 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.06 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | TB | 31 | 31 | 168 | 709 | 171 | 56 | 20 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 3.98 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | TB | 33 | 33 | 182 | 769 | 188 | 60 | 21 | 24.4% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.92 | +2.8 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | TB | 33 | 33 | 182 | 769 | 189 | 59 | 21 | 24.6% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.90 | +2.9 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | TB | 33 | 33 | 181 | 763 | 188 | 59 | 21 | 24.7% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.91 | +2.8 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | TB | 32 | 32 | 178 | 752 | 185 | 59 | 21 | 24.6% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.94 | +2.7 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | TB | 32 | 32 | 174 | 735 | 180 | 58 | 21 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 3.98 | +2.6 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | TB | 31 | 31 | 169 | 713 | 173 | 57 | 21 | 24.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.04 | +2.4 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | TB | 30 | 30 | 163 | 688 | 165 | 56 | 21 | 24.1% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.12 | +2.2 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | TB | 28 | 28 | 156 | 660 | 157 | 54 | 20 | 23.8% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.15 | 4.20 | +2.0 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 149 | 631 | 148 | 53 | 20 | 23.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.30 | +1.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 42 | 191 | 793 | 135 | 91 | 28 | 17.0% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 3.68 | 5.08 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 44 | 200 | 832 | 142 | 95 | 29 | 17.0% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 3.68 | 5.08 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Urbina (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.19 | 22.9% | 14.4% | 369 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Jaden Hamm R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.82 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .273 | 4.78 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 83 | +0.96 | 3.82 | 182 | 91 |
| Michael Forret R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 2.2% | .302 | 2.67 | 25.1% | 16.6% | 74 | -1.32 | 2.67 | 174 | 90 |
| David Perez R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 90 |
| Logan Hofmann R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.51 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 3.4% | .239 | 6.75 | 9.7% | -12.0% | 47 | +2.24 | 4.51 | 129 | 89 |
| Trevor Martin R 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.24 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.28 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 172 | +0.04 | 4.19 | 282 | 88 |
| Jack Wenninger R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.25 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.90 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 136 | -0.35 | 3.90 | 251 | 88 |
| Griffin Canning R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.13 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 225 | +0.43 | 3.65 | 705 | 88 |
| Mason Hickman R 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 5.45 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 181 | +0.72 | 4.73 | 300 | 88 |
| Levi Kelly R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.41 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 1.5% | .285 | 6.22 | 19.4% | -7.9% | 25 | +2.81 | 3.41 | 125 | 87 |
| Brandon Bailey R 2028 · 3.52 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.52 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 215 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 306 | 87 |
| Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.19 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.17 | 16.8% | 2.6% | 91 | +0.98 | 3.82 | 406 | 87 |
| Javi Rivera R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.72 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 186 | 87 |
| Austin Cates R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 87 |
| Cory Lewis R 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.42 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .267 | 5.08 | 22.0% | 5.4% | 139 | +1.66 | 3.42 | 240 | 87 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.90 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.40 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 72 | +0.50 | 3.90 | 193 | 86 |
| Nick Sinacola R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.43 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .335 | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 254 | -0.37 | 3.55 | 357 | 86 |
| Chase Hampton R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 107 | 86 |
| David Festa R 2028 · 3.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.66 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.74 | 26.6% | 17.0% | 302 | +0.08 | 3.66 | 405 | 85 |
| Mason Black R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.93 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.75 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 364 | +0.82 | 3.93 | 476 | 85 |
| Josh Bostick R 2028 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.71 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .304 | 5.41 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 119 | +0.70 | 4.71 | 226 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.1 | $18M | +$18M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.5 | $23M | +$22M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.8 | $26M | +$25M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +2.9 | $28M | +$22M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $10M | +2.9 | $29M | +$19M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $14M | +2.8 | $28M | +$14M |
| Totals | $32M | $151M | +$119M | ||