Jose Urbina — OGILVIE

Jose Urbina P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.7 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%19.9%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5550

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.6M
2034	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$6M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$12M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	8	24	105	21	12	4	73%	2.2	13.6%	14.3%	-0.7%	5.9%	5.32	6.97	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	8	24	105	21	12	4	73%	2.2	13.6%	14.3%	-0.7%	5.9%	5.32	6.97	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	11	8	24	105	21	12	4	73%	2.2	20.0%	11.4%	8.6%	3.8%	5.32	5.04	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	65	273	57	29	8	71%	3.8	14.5%	13.2%	1.3%	4.4%	4.71	5.94	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	65	273	57	29	8	71%	3.8	14.5%	13.2%	1.3%	4.4%	4.71	5.94	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	12	65	273	57	29	8	71%	3.8	20.9%	10.6%	10.3%	2.9%	4.71	4.28	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	96	380	101	30	9	100%	4.8	19.5%	9.7%	9.8%	2.2%	2.15	3.87	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	96	380	101	30	9	100%	4.8	19.5%	9.7%	9.8%	2.2%	2.15	3.87	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	96	380	101	30	9	100%	4.8	26.6%	7.9%	18.7%	2.4%	2.15	3.15	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	19	19	78	346	89	32	9	100%	4.1	19.8%	10.6%	9.2%	3.3%	4.17	4.56	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	19	19	78	346	89	32	9	100%	4.1	19.8%	10.6%	9.2%	3.3%	4.17	4.56	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A+ RAW	TB	19	19	78	346	89	32	9	100%	4.1	25.7%	9.2%	16.5%	2.6%	4.17	3.53	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	TB	1	1	6	25	5	3	1	100%	5.9	19.9%	11.0%	8.9%	3.0%	4.82	4.82	+0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	84	371	94	35	10	—	—	25.3%	9.4%	16.0%	2.6%	4.22	4.58	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	91	384	80	39	11	100%	4.8	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	2.9%	4.67	4.61	+0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	96	403	88	38	12	100%	5.0	21.9%	9.5%	12.5%	2.9%	4.49	4.39	+0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	99	418	95	38	12	100%	5.2	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	2.8%	4.35	4.26	+0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	102	429	100	38	12	100%	5.6	23.2%	8.8%	14.4%	2.8%	4.24	4.17	+0.9
2031	25	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	103	434	102	38	12	100%	5.7	23.6%	8.7%	14.9%	2.8%	4.16	4.11	+1.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	103	434	103	38	12	100%	6.1	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	2.8%	4.12	4.09	+1.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	101	428	102	37	12	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	2.8%	4.12	4.13	+0.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	98	415	98	37	12	100%	6.2	23.7%	8.9%	14.8%	2.9%	4.18	4.21	+0.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	94	397	93	36	12	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	3.1%	4.28	4.34	+0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	88	373	86	35	12	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.4%	13.7%	3.3%	4.42	4.52	+0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	82	348	79	34	12	100%	5.9	22.7%	9.8%	12.9%	3.5%	4.60	4.72	+0.2
2038	32	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	76	322	78	30	12	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	3.8%	4.65	4.68	+0.2
2039	33	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	70	295	70	29	12	100%	5.8	23.7%	9.8%	13.9%	4.0%	4.82	4.93	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	45	190	40	19	6	100%	5.0	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	3.0%	4.72	4.66	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	70	296	65	28	9	100%	5.0	21.9%	9.5%	12.5%	2.9%	4.54	4.44	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	84	355	80	32	10	100%	5.2	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	2.9%	4.40	4.31	+0.6
2030	24	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	91	384	89	34	11	100%	5.7	23.2%	8.8%	14.4%	2.9%	4.29	4.22	+0.8
2031	25	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	94	397	94	34	11	100%	5.9	23.6%	8.7%	14.9%	2.9%	4.21	4.16	+0.9
2032	26	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	96	405	96	35	12	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	2.9%	4.17	4.14	+0.9
2033	27	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	96	405	96	35	12	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	2.9%	4.17	4.18	+0.9
2034	28	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	93	393	93	35	12	100%	5.8	23.7%	8.9%	14.8%	3.0%	4.23	4.26	+0.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	89	376	88	34	12	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	3.2%	4.33	4.39	+0.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	84	355	82	33	12	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.4%	13.7%	3.4%	4.47	4.57	+0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	78	329	75	32	12	100%	6.0	22.7%	9.8%	12.9%	3.6%	4.66	4.78	+0.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	72	304	74	28	12	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	3.9%	4.71	4.74	+0.2
2039	33	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	66	279	66	27	12	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.8%	13.9%	4.1%	4.89	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		184	184	1059	4473	1039	409	142	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	3.2%	4.41	4.03	+10.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	196	77	27	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	3.2%	4.41	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		67	59	263	1104	196	125	37	88%	3.9	17.8%	11.3%	6.5%	3.4%	3.67	4.89	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	45	200	841	150	95	29	88%	3.9	17.8%	11.3%	6.5%	3.4%	3.67	4.89	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Urbina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	19.9%	11.0%	3.0%	—	4.41	21.8%	12.3%	286	-0.41	—	—	—
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	90
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	87
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	87
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	87
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	86
Owen Murphy R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	19	SP	4.20	22.0%	9.9%	3.1%	.325	4.03	22.8%	13.3%	186	-0.17	2.78	275	86
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	86
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	85
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	85
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	85
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	84
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	84
Edgar Moreta R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SP	3.94	16.3%	9.8%	1.8%	.269	5.11	17.7%	9.2%	117	+1.17	3.94	170	84
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	84
Eury Rosado R 2021 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP	3.83	17.2%	9.2%	1.9%	.231	6.00	19.2%	5.1%	55	+2.17	3.83	109	84
Alec Kisena R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	83
Michael Dominguez R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	20	SP	4.09	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.72	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.63	3.82	383	82
Tyler Schlaffer R 2021 · 5.17 FIP	20	SP	5.17	16.1%	10.7%	3.8%	.344	5.23	17.2%	4.5%	154	+0.06	3.79	399	82
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	82
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.3	91	22.9%	9.3%	1.18	4.39
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17