Jose Urbina
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
Age 20
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.4 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
K%19.9%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%9.5%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | FCL Rays | 11 | 8 | 24 | 105 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 73% | 2.2 | 13.6% | 14.3% | -0.7% | 6.5% | 5.32 | 7.32 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | FCL Rays | 11 | 8 | 24 | 105 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 73% | 2.2 | 20.0% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 5.32 | 5.04 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 57 | 29 | 8 | 71% | 3.8 | 14.5% | 13.2% | 1.3% | 5.0% | 4.71 | 6.28 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 57 | 29 | 8 | 71% | 3.8 | 20.9% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.28 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 96 | 380 | 101 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 4.8 | 19.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 2.15 | 3.73 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 96 | 380 | 101 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 4.8 | 26.6% | 7.9% | 18.7% | 2.4% | 2.15 | 3.15 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 15 | 15 | 63 | 285 | 67 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 4.2 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 4.41 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 65 | 273 | 54 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 4.6 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.9% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.70 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | TB | — | — | 128 | 558 | 121 | 53 | 16 | — | — | 21.7% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.76 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 20 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.9% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 68 | 286 | 60 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 71 | 301 | 66 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.1% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 74 | 312 | 71 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.23 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 75 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.14 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 77 | 323 | 77 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.08 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 77 | 323 | 78 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.06 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 76 | 319 | 77 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 73 | 309 | 74 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.18 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 70 | 295 | 70 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.7% | 9.1% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 66 | 277 | 65 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 61 | 259 | 59 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 57 | 239 | 54 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 4.78 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 48 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 5.01 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 33 | 139 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 52 | 220 | 49 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.1% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 62 | 262 | 60 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 66 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 70 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 15.2% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.04 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 72 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 4.02 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 73 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 71 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 66 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 9.1% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 61 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 56 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 4.53 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 51 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 4.72 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 45 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 3.9% | 4.95 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 137 | 137 | 789 | 3331 | 773 | 306 | 99 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.94 | +13.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 78 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 63 | 55 | 248 | 1043 | 180 | 117 | 38 | 87% | 3.9 | 17.2% | 11.2% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 3.70 | 5.04 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 44 | 200 | 840 | 145 | 94 | 30 | 87% | 3.9 | 17.2% | 11.2% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 3.70 | 5.04 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Urbina (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.38 | 22.0% | 12.6% | 213 | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 90 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 88 |
| Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 87 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2028 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 87 |
| John Klein R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.59 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.12 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 264 | -0.47 | 3.23 | 317 | 87 |
| Mike Vasil R 2028 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 86 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2028 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.10 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.42 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.68 | 2.58 | 408 | 86 |
| Jared Karros R 2028 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 85 |
| Logan Gragg R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 85 |
| Christian Roa R 2028 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 85 |
| Eury Rosado R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.80 | 17.2% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .231 | 5.87 | 19.2% | 5.1% | 55 | +2.07 | 3.80 | 109 | 85 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.82 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.56 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 243 | -0.26 | 4.30 | 318 | 84 |
| Frank German R 2027 · 5.10 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.10 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 3.8% | .308 | 4.77 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 123 | -0.33 | 3.16 | 218 | 84 |
| Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.25 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .278 | 5.40 | 15.4% | 0.3% | 159 | +1.15 | 3.89 | 474 | 84 |
| Will Sanders R 2028 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.17 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 4.0% | .297 | 4.04 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 167 | -1.13 | 3.89 | 259 | 84 |
| Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 84 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2028 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 84 |
| Austin Gordon R 2028 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.70 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .315 | 5.46 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 75 | +0.76 | 4.70 | 159 | 84 |
| Trey Gregory-Alford R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.42 | 17.8% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 145 | 83 |
| Josh Bostick R 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.73 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .304 | 5.46 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 119 | +0.73 | 4.73 | 226 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 14 | 69 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 1.18 | 4.39 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Brad Hand ('23) | 9 | 64 | 27.2% | 8.6% | 0.89 | 3.53 |