Jose Urbina

P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#183ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	MIX2 levels	17	12	65	4.71	4.28	20.9%	10.6%	—	K 14.5% · BB 13.2% · FIP 5.94
2025	19	MIX2 levels	20	20	96	2.15	3.15	26.6%	7.9%	—	K 19.5% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.87
2026	20	A+TB	19	19	78	4.17	3.55	25.7%	9.2%	—	K 19.8% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.56
2027PROJ	21	MLBTB	—	—	0	4.73	4.73	20.9%	10.8%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTB	7	7	38	4.52	4.44	22.2%	9.8%	0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBTB	10	10	56	4.37	4.28	22.9%	9.3%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 76%

CompsJosé López (age 21) · Tanner Burns (age 22) · Chih-Jung Liu (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%20.9%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$45M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2036	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
Totals		$9M		$15M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	8	24	105	21	12	4	73%	2.2	13.6%	14.3%	-0.7%	5.9%	5.32	6.97	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	11	8	24	105	21	12	4	73%	2.2	20.0%	11.4%	8.6%	3.8%	5.32	5.04	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	65	273	57	29	8	71%	3.8	14.5%	13.2%	1.3%	4.4%	4.71	5.94	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	65	273	57	29	8	71%	3.8	14.5%	13.2%	1.3%	4.4%	4.71	5.94	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	12	65	273	57	29	8	71%	3.8	20.9%	10.6%	10.3%	2.9%	4.71	4.28	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	96	380	101	30	9	100%	4.8	19.5%	9.7%	9.8%	2.2%	2.15	3.87	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	96	380	101	30	9	100%	4.8	19.5%	9.7%	9.8%	2.2%	2.15	3.87	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	96	380	101	30	9	100%	4.8	26.6%	7.9%	18.7%	2.4%	2.15	3.15	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	19	19	78	346	89	32	9	100%	4.1	19.8%	10.6%	9.2%	3.3%	4.17	4.56	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	19	19	78	346	89	32	9	100%	4.1	19.8%	10.6%	9.2%	3.3%	4.17	4.56	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	19	19	78	346	89	32	9	100%	4.1	25.7%	9.2%	16.5%	2.6%	4.17	3.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.9%	10.8%	10.2%	3.0%	4.73	4.73	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	76	322	71	32	10	100%	5.1	22.2%	9.8%	12.3%	3.0%	4.56	4.48	+0.8
2029	23	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	76	322	74	30	9	100%	5.5	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.9%	4.41	4.32	+1.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	76	322	75	29	9	100%	5.5	23.4%	9.0%	14.4%	2.9%	4.30	4.23	+1.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	72	302	72	27	9	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.8%	14.9%	2.9%	4.22	4.17	+1.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	72	303	73	27	9	100%	6.0	24.0%	8.8%	15.2%	2.9%	4.18	4.15	+1.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	70	296	71	26	9	100%	5.9	23.9%	8.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.18	4.19	+1.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	67	282	67	25	9	100%	6.1	23.8%	9.0%	14.8%	3.0%	4.23	4.27	+0.9
2035	29	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	62	262	62	24	8	100%	6.2	23.6%	9.2%	14.3%	3.2%	4.33	4.40	+0.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	56	236	55	23	8	100%	6.2	23.2%	9.6%	13.7%	3.4%	4.48	4.58	+0.5
2037	31	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	54	230	57	21	8	100%	6.0	24.8%	9.1%	15.7%	3.6%	4.50	4.51	+0.6
2038	32	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	47	200	49	19	8	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	3.9%	4.64	4.74	+0.4
2039	33	MLB MLE	TB	7	7	41	173	41	17	7	100%	5.8	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	4.1%	4.85	4.99	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	38	160	36	16	5	100%	5.4	22.2%	9.8%	12.3%	2.9%	4.52	4.44	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	56	236	54	22	7	100%	5.6	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.8%	4.37	4.28	+0.7
2030	24	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	63	266	62	24	7	100%	5.7	23.4%	9.0%	14.4%	2.8%	4.26	4.19	+0.9
2031	25	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	63	266	63	23	7	100%	5.7	23.8%	8.8%	14.9%	2.8%	4.18	4.13	+0.9
2032	26	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	66	279	67	24	8	100%	6.0	24.0%	8.8%	15.2%	2.8%	4.14	4.11	+1.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	65	274	66	24	8	100%	5.9	23.9%	8.9%	15.1%	2.8%	4.14	4.15	+0.9
2034	28	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	63	266	63	24	8	100%	6.3	23.8%	9.0%	14.8%	2.9%	4.18	4.22	+0.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	59	249	59	23	8	100%	5.9	23.6%	9.2%	14.3%	3.1%	4.28	4.35	+0.7
2036	30	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	53	224	52	21	7	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.6%	13.7%	3.3%	4.43	4.53	+0.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	52	220	55	20	8	100%	5.8	24.8%	9.1%	15.7%	3.5%	4.45	4.46	+0.5
2038	32	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	45	190	46	18	7	100%	5.6	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	3.7%	4.58	4.68	+0.3
2039	33	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	39	165	39	16	7	100%	6.5	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	4.0%	4.79	4.93	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		113	113	661	2790	661	256	86	100%	5.8	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	3.1%	4.33	3.95	+11.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	200	77	26	100%	5.8	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	3.1%	4.33	3.95	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		67	59	263	1104	196	125	37	88%	3.9	17.8%	11.3%	6.5%	3.4%	3.67	4.89	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	45	200	841	150	95	29	88%	3.9	17.8%	11.3%	6.5%	3.4%	3.67	4.89	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 78 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.56 (+1.03)K% 25.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.72%	—	×0.770	19.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.25%	—	×1.150	10.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.25%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 92 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.87 (+0.90)K% 26.4% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.37%	—	×0.740	19.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.24%	—	×1.180	9.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.159	×1.300	2.16%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 132).

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Rays · 48 IPFIP 3.85 → 5.25 (+1.39)K% 21.7% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.680	14.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.08%	—	×1.250	15.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.93%	÷1.002	×1.400	2.70%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.85 → 5.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 17 IPFIP 5.66 → 8.12 (+2.46)K% 18.2% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.740	13.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×1.180	7.15%
HR / BF /BF	6.06%	÷0.824	×1.300	9.56%

Result: FIP 5.66 → 8.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Rays · 24 IPFIP 4.95 → 6.97 (+2.02)K% 20.0% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.680	13.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.250	14.29%
HR / BF /BF	3.81%	÷0.911	×1.400	5.85%

Result: FIP 4.95 → 6.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Urbina (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.34	22.8%	13.5%	229	-0.39	—	—	—
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	91
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	89
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	88
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	87
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	87
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	87
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	86
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	86
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	85
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	85
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	85
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	85
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.18	19.6%	9.9%	293	-0.29	3.19	346	84
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	84
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	84
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	84
Trevor Harrison R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	18	SP	4.03	21.0%	10.6%	2.5%	.331	4.94	19.7%	7.0%	205	+0.91	3.79	277	84
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	84
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	64	23.4%	9.3%	1.21	4.40
Russ Springer ('10)	4.3	66	20.9%	9.4%	1.27	4.52
Kyle Farnsworth ('14)	4.9	62	22.5%	9.6%	1.20	4.26
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Mark Guthrie ('89-'03, 8 WAR*)	4.9	65	22.8%*	8.5%*	1.07*	4.01*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*