Gabriel Lara — OGILVIE

Gabriel LaraOF Tampa Tarpons

Age 20 L/L 5'9" / 165 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION129 act + 13 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.167 / .231 / .167

PA13

HR0

K%31

BB%8

BABIP267

ISO101

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE51

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	182	146	39	7	1	4	28	30	6	18	8	267	406	411	817	144	307	16	15	370	136	+8	+0	—	—	+4	1.2
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	146	124	25	1	1	1	18	19	4	14	4	202	322	250	572	48	231	13	12	277	73	-5	+1	—	—	+3	-0.0
2025	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	109	101	28	5	1	2	5	26	1	4	5	277	318	406	724	129	347	24	5	317	100	+0	-1	—	—	+2	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	182	156	31	5	1	2	18	44	6	18	8	199	306	282	588	83	253	24	10	266	66	-7	+0	—	—	+4	-0.3
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	146	131	22	1	1	1	11	27	4	14	4	168	253	214	467	46	193	18	8	204	24	-13	+1	—	—	+3	-0.9
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	109	103	20	3	1	1	3	37	1	4	5	194	224	272	496	78	268	34	3	205	25	-10	-1	—	—	+2	-0.9
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	182	156	31	5	1	2	18	44	6	18	8	199	306	282	588	83	259	24	10	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	182	146	39	7	1	4	28	30	6	18	8	267	406	411	817	144	307	16	15	370	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	146	131	22	1	1	1	11	27	4	14	4	168	253	214	467	46	204	18	8	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	—	146	124	25	1	1	1	18	19	4	14	4	202	322	250	572	48	231	13	12	277	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	109	103	20	3	1	1	3	37	1	4	5	194	224	272	496	78	284	34	3	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	—	109	101	28	5	1	2	5	26	1	4	5	277	318	406	724	129	347	24	5	317	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	182	156	31	5	1	2	18	44	6	18	8	199	306	282	588	83	253	24	10	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	146	130	22	1	1	1	11	27	4	14	4	169	253	215	469	46	193	18	8	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	109	104	20	3	1	1	3	37	1	4	5	192	224	269	494	77	268	34	3	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	182	156	31	5	1	2	18	44	6	18	8	199	306	282	588	83	253	24	10	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	146	130	22	1	1	1	11	27	4	14	4	169	253	215	469	46	193	18	8	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	109	104	20	3	1	1	3	37	1	4	5	192	224	269	494	77	268	34	3	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A MLE	NYY	—	129	108	14	4	0	3	14	51	6	7	2	130	266	250	516	120	200	40	11	234	45	-8	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	NYY	—	24	18	4	1	0	1	5	9	1	2	1	222	417	444	861	222	375	38	21	392	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A RAW	NYY	—	89	73	12	4	0	3	13	22	3	5	1	164	315	342	657	178	188	25	15	305	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A+ RAW	NYY	—	16	12	2	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	167	333	167	500		250	31	6	249	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A MLE	NYY	0%	13	12	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	167	231	167	397		265	31	8	263	64	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	20	A MLE	NYY	—	142	120	16	4	0	3	15	55	6	7	2	133	262	242	504	108	206	39	11	237	46	-9	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	227	203	40	8	1	4	18	64	4	5	1	197	276	305	581	108	268	28	8	273	71	-8	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	78	71	14	3	0	2	6	22	1	2	1	197	269	324	593	127	270	28	8	262	71	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	78	71	14	3	0	2	6	22	1	2	1	197	269	324	593	127	255	28	8	262	52	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	117	25	0	17	50	183	8	17	8	198	269	326	595	128	255	28	8	262	52	-23	+0	+0	-4	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	677	605	115	17	4	8	51	176	15	41	18	190	270	271	541	81	251	26	8	245	52	-8	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	111	16	4	8	49	169	14	39	17	191	270	274	544	83	252	26	8	245	52	-23	+2	+0	-4	+14	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gabriel Lara (OGILVIE)	20	39→44	35→40	55→60	51	192/273/296	104	265	2	3	29%	8%	64	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alberto Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	43→52	39→45	52→50	43	208/260/292	85	279	6	14	27%	6%	56	-1.9	222/281/343	121	321	10	8	32%	7%	76	-0.4	219/279/346	127	314	10	7	32%	7%	73	-0.6
✕Juan Perez 2012 · A	20	49→51	41→45	55	45	233/286/340	108	296	7	13	23%	6%	77	-0.3	214/261/322	108	273	8	15	24%	5%	63	-1.3	223/266/335	112	289	12	24	27%	5%	66	-0.7
✕Jake Fox 2023 · A	20	45→41	39→40	54→50	49	210/298/303	92	292	6	15	28%	10%	74	-0.5	194/266/289	95	271	7	11	29%	9%	59	-1.7	192/278/283	91	261	5	13	26%	10%	60	-0.8
✕Sandy Acevedo 2013 · A	20	41	41→45	50	40	196/269/296	100	293	8	11	34%	7%	61	-1.5	199/266/318	119	286	10	9	32%	7%	65	-1.2	149/220/307	158	194	15	9	31%	7%	43	-0.7
✕Albertson Asigen 2022 · A	20	43	40	53→55	44	206/261/303	97	274	6	6	27%	7%	59	-1.7	224/297/299	75	327	4	17	30%	8%	72	-0.7	212/299/299	88	345	7	27	37%	9%	70	-0.3
✕Ryan Vega 2017 · A	20	44	40	54→45	41	212/260/305	93	270	8	9	24%	5%	59	-1.6	214/273/302	88	290	7	7	27%	6%	64	-1.3	192/260/272	79	271	7	6	30%	7%	52	-1.2
✕Anthony Alford 2014 · A	20	44→51	40→45	55	45	208/281/305	97	297	6	12	30%	8%	68	-1.0	210/283/305	95	343	7	16	37%	8%	69	-0.9	215/296/306	91	327	7	21	33%	9%	71	-0.5
✕Ricardo Méndez 2021 · A	21	44	39→45	54→50	40	207/265/294	88	309	7	13	34%	7%	59	-1.7	216/259/313	97	318	7	13	32%	5%	61	-1.5	212/254/305	93	308	6	14	32%	5%	53	-1.2
✕Yohendrick Pinango 2023 · A	21	45→51	42→45	52→50	41	221/259/324	103	273	10	9	23%	5%	63	-1.4	208/263/312	104	263	10	10	24%	7%	62	-1.4	213/280/338	125	272	13	7	26%	8%	73	-0.5
✕Brian Pointer 2012 · A	20	41	44→45	56→50	38	203/257/327	124	300	11	10	35%	6%	63	-1.3	189/261/299	110	295	10	12	37%	7%	59	-1.6	194/274/314	120	289	11	13	34%	8%	65	-0.9
✕Jesus Valdez 2012 · A	20	41	43→45	51→40	44	206/259/320	115	251	11	7	23%	6%	63	-1.4	206/257/315	109	279	11	4	29%	5%	61	-1.5	195/245/301	106	265	12	3	30%	5%	52	-1.2
✕William Beckwith 2011 · A	20	44	41→50	52→50	47	212/283/313	101	273	9	9	25%	8%	70	-0.8	218/283/364	146	288	16	10	29%	6%	83	+0.1	211/277/364	153	280	19	11	31%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Drew Vettleson 2012 · A	21	44→50	44→45	53→50	42	218/273/335	118	292	11	15	29%	7%	71	-0.8	223/269/331	108	303	9	9	28%	6%	68	-1.0	221/265/330	109	299	9	7	28%	5%	65	-0.9
✕Michael Swinson 2010 · A	20	45	41→40	52→50	41	213/275/309	96	312	8	12	33%	7%	66	-1.1	203/268/283	80	270	5	9	25%	8%	57	-1.8	190/261/261	70	255	3	11	25%	8%	47	-1.1
✕Darryl Collins 2022 · A	20	44	38→40	50→45	50	208/286/283	75	260	5	11	21%	8%	65	-1.2	205/279/283	78	270	4	11	24%	9%	62	-1.4	191/274/265	74	263	1	9	25%	10%	57	-1.1
✕Luigi Rodriguez 2013 · A	20	47→49	40→50	53→55	40	222/270/319	97	321	7	17	32%	6%	65	-1.2	218/271/319	101	328	8	15	34%	7%	66	-1.1	223/264/357	134	340	16	15	38%	5%	71	-0.5
✕Jorge Barrosa 2021 · A	20	45→49	38→45	55	44	215/279/298	83	279	5	18	24%	6%	65	-1.2	225/287/334	109	284	9	19	23%	7%	76	-0.4	224/293/340	117	276	10	20	22%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Shard Munroe 2016 · A	20	43	38→40	56→50	49	206/275/289	83	264	5	14	23%	8%	61	-1.5	202/271/292	90	276	6	14	27%	8%	61	-1.5	176/250/270	95	256	9	14	33%	8%	46	-0.9
✕Alexander Ovalles 2021 · A	20	50→42	40→50	51→50	45	236/290/339	104	303	6	8	23%	7%	78	-0.3	215/281/328	113	289	11	7	28%	8%	73	-0.6	205/276/318	113	276	12	8	28%	8%	67	-0.6
✕Alexis Bastardo 2014 · A	20	45	38→40	51→55	47	210/299/297	88	280	5	11	25%	8%	74	-0.6	211/277/287	76	294	4	11	28%	6%	62	-1.4	176/223/225	50	245	4	16	29%	4%	25	-1.4