Gabriel LaraOF Tampa Tarpons
Age 20 L/L 5'9" / 165 lbs A HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
2026 ROS PROJECTION98 act + 65 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†63
AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .260 / .270
PA65
HR1
K%28
BB%8
BABIP248
ISO84
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -8.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.0 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +4.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.50-0.5WAR
0.00.51.00.10.2+$2M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 43 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT43
scouting grade only
POWER40
scouting grade only
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.9M $0.5M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROKDSL NYY Bombers — 182155 32512 19446 188 206317290607 84270 2410 267 63 — — — — — —
202317 ROKDSL NYY Bombers — 182146 39714 28306 188 267406411817 144307 1615 370 141 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL NYY Yankees — 146131 21111 11274 144 160247206453 46194 188 203 14 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL NYY Yankees — 146124 25111 18194 144 202322250572 48231 1312 277 70 — — — — — —
202519 ROKFCL Yankees — 109103 18310 3371 45 175206223429 49265 343 193 6 — — — — — —
202519 ROKFCL Yankees — 109101 28512 5261 45 277318406724 129347 245 317 101 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD20 ANYY — 9883 11403 11414 62 133265289554 157205 4211 247 47 -6 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.3
YTD20 ANYY — 9879 15504 15294 62 190347405752 215239 3015 343 120 +2 +0 +0 -1 +3 0.5
ROS20 ANYY 0% 6559 11201 5181 21 185260270530 84268 288 267 63 -3 +0 +0 -0 +2 -0.1
ROS20 MLBNYY 0% 01 0000 000 00 —— 269 —— 256 54 — — +0 -0 — —
FULL20 ANYY — 9884 11403 11414 62 131265286551 155200 4211 247 47 -6 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.3
TOT20 ANYY — 163142 22604 16595 83 155263281544 126227 3610 255 53 -9 +0 +0 -1 +5 -0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202721 MLBNYY 34% 212189 39814 17574 51 206286323608 116271 278 277 70 -7 +1 +0 -1 +6 -0.2
202822 MLBNYY 48% 334298 641327 27886 82 215293342635 128274 268 283 75 -9 +1 +0 -2 +9 -0.1
202923 MLBNYY 54% 417373 801629 341097 93 214292340633 126276 268 288 78 -10 +1 +0 -3 +12 -0.0
203024 MLBNYY 55% 472422 9118211 391228 113 216294346640 130277 268 291 81 -10 +1 +0 -3 +13 0.1
203125 MLBNYY 56% 503449 9920312 411308 113 220297359656 138277 268 292 81 -11 +1 +0 -3 +14 0.2
202721 MLBNYY 34% 7366 13301 6201 21 197274288562 91273 278 266 62 -3 +0 +0 -0 +2 -0.2
202822 MLBNYY 48% 162145 31614 13433 41 214292352644 138275 278 273 67 -6 +0 +0 -1 +5 -0.2
202923 MLBNYY 54% 226202 44915 18594 52 218295347641 129277 268 278 71 -7 +0 +0 -1 +6 -0.2
203024 MLBNYY 55% 262235 501016 21684 62 213288340629 128278 268 281 73 -8 +0 +0 -2 +7 -0.2
203125 MLBNYY 56% 282252 551117 23735 62 218296353650 135278 268 282 74 -8 +0 +0 -2 +8 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 1005901 19339423 8126317 238 214292343635 129275 268 278 71 -33 +1 +0 -6 +28 -0.9
/ 162G— — 650583 12525315 5217011 155 214291345636 130274 268 278 71 -21 +1 +0 -4 +18 -0.6
Career— — 24402179 455861347 19663245 8230 209288325612 116269 268 276 69 -84 +4 +0 -15 +69 -2.6
/ 162G— — 650580 12123313 5216812 228 209287326613 117268 268 276 69 -22 +1 +0 -4 +18 -0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROKDSL NYY Bombers — 182146 39714 28306 188 267406411817 144307 1615 370 141 +8 +0 — — +5 1.4
202418 ROKDSL NYY Yankees — 146124 25111 18194 144 202322250572 48231 1312 277 70 -5 +1 — — +4 0.0
202519 ROKFCL Yankees — 109101 28512 5261 45 277318406724 129347 245 317 101 +0 -1 — — +3 0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17
career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA
82,7118155233305399-12-134.14.5
/1626642013-2.9-3.21.0pk7: 5
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA
72,1983552238326354-4-34.34.3
/1626641116-1.3-0.81.3pk7: 4
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA
62,3474631241304367-5+73.83.8
/162664139-1.3+1.91.1pk7: 4
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04
career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA
51,9142978242303347-6+62.72.7
/1626641027-2.0+2.21.0pk7: 3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA
71,5644513236292400-11-61.31.3
/162664196-4.5-2.50.6pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA
61,6334033232299363+6-140.90.9
/1626641613+2.4-5.80.4pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons
31,1142425217290343-7+0-0.10.0
/1626641415-4.0+0.0-0.1pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Gabriel Lara (OGILVIE) 20 38→43 35→40 55→60 50 155/263/281 126227 48 36% 10% 53 -0.5 ————————— —————————
●Eliezer Álvarez
2015 · A 		20 43→53 40→45 54→55 44 206/262/313 106260 611 22% 6% 56 -1.3 245/295/352 107322 515 24% 6% 81 +0.4 254/308/36210834251926%6%87+0.4
✕Juan Perez
2012 · A 		20 49→51 41→45 55 45 233/286/340 108296 713 23% 6% 74 -0.1 211/258/316 105269 815 24% 5% 56 -1.3 227/271/349122293142427%5%67-0.3
✕Alberto Rodriguez
2021 · A 		20 43→52 39→50 52→50 43 208/260/292 85279 614 27% 6% 50 -1.7 222/280/348 126317 118 31% 7% 74 -0.1 218/277/35013230911731%7%70-0.3
✕Hoy Park
2017 · A 		21 41→49 39→45 60→55 46 193/267/285 92274 517 29% 8% 53 -1.5 216/290/303 87291 617 26% 9% 67 -0.5 227/314/3259830081725%10%79+0.2
✕Rudy Martin Jr.
2016 · A 		20 49 39→45 60→65 52 227/313/330 103311 416 26% 10% 83 +0.6 207/274/300 93331 626 36% 7% 59 -1.1 227/303/343115312135229%9%78+0.1
✕William Beckwith
2011 · A 		20 44→39 41→50 52→50 47 212/283/313 101273 99 25% 8% 66 -0.6 213/279/357 144288 1610 31% 6% 77 +0.1 202/270/354153275191133%6%71-0.1
✕Yoyner Fajardo
2019 · A 		20 50→58 38→45 58→60 49 232/294/325 93280 314 18% 7% 73 -0.1 235/293/308 73293 319 19% 6% 68 -0.5 259/317/3539433253422%7%85+0.4
✕Daryl Jones
2007 · A 		20 41→51 41→45 49→50 41 200/266/295 96265 810 27% 5% 55 -1.4 221/285/316 95297 814 26% 6% 68 -0.5 235/302/34210730891425%7%79+0.2
✕Ryan Vega
2017 · A 		20 44 40 54→45 41 212/260/305 93270 89 24% 5% 54 -1.4 213/273/302 89289 87 27% 6% 59 -1.1 191/259/271812698630%7%44-1.2
✕Forrest Wall
2016 · A 		20 47→57 41→45 58→70 45 224/278/332 108284 718 23% 7% 68 -0.5 218/270/312 94295 818 27% 6% 60 -1.0 266/338/37711036395027%9%101+1.1
✕Victor Mesa Jr.
2022 · A 		20 44 40→50 52→50 40 213/257/311 98286 69 27% 5% 53 -1.5 209/259/322 113277 119 27% 6% 59 -1.1 227/286/38916226621923%7%84+0.3
✕Ramón Flores
2012 · A 		20 45→55 39→45 50 45 218/272/307 89279 78 24% 6% 59 -1.1 229/282/328 99288 710 22% 7% 69 -0.4 251/324/348972998818%9%88+0.6
✕Alexander Ovalles
2021 · A 		20 50→41 40→50 51→50 45 236/290/339 104303 68 23% 7% 76 +0.0 217/281/330 113295 117 28% 7% 70 -0.3 208/276/32011328212829%8%63-0.4
✕Darrell Ceciliani
2011 · A 		21 43→53 38→45 52→55 41 206/262/282 77274 613 26% 6% 49 -1.8 235/289/327 92315 616 26% 6% 72 -0.2 253/291/35910733892627%4%78+0.2
✕Héctor Rodríguez
2023 · A 		19 48→50 43→50 53→50 44 234/274/358 124271 915 18% 5% 73 -0.1 229/266/355 126278 1211 22% 4% 69 -0.4 238/278/383145274171020%5%79+0.2
✕Jake Fox
2023 · A 		20 45→42 39→40 54→50 49 212/301/304 92297 615 28% 10% 72 -0.2 195/269/291 96274 711 29% 9% 55 -1.4 181/270/2648325351328%11%47-0.9
✕Yohendrick Pinango
2022 · A 		20 51→52 38→50 50 44 240/283/323 83297 59 21% 5% 68 -0.5 210/254/308 98266 910 24% 5% 52 -1.6 215/285/35814327016726%8%76+0.1
✕Dalton Pompey
2013 · A 		20 40→50 40→45 55 44 196/264/288 92278 816 31% 8% 52 -1.6 236/297/340 104317 624 26% 7% 79 +0.3 259/316/35910033172922%7%87+0.7
✕Jake Shaffer
2009 · A 		21 43→53 38→45 52→45 42 208/259/289 81284 515 28% 6% 49 -1.8 247/279/356 109314 87 23% 4% 75 -0.0 261/290/3781163269622%3%81+0.3
✕Albertson Asigen
2022 · A 		20 43 39→40 53→55 44 205/260/298 92275 56 27% 7% 52 -1.6 224/299/302 78328 517 30% 8% 70 -0.3 213/301/3079434882737%9%69-0.1