Gabriel Lara
OF Tampa Tarpons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKDSL NYY Yanke… | 146 | .202/.322/.250 | 1 | 14 | 13 | — | .147/.247/.194 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROKNYY | 109 | .277/.318/.406 | 2 | 4 | 24 | — | .194/.224/.272 |
| 2026 | 20 | A+/A/ROKNYY | 129 | .175/.336/.340 | 4 | 7 | 39 | — | .129/.258/.247 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBNYY | 239 | .212/.280/.317 | 4 | 5 | 69 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBNYY | 47 | .218/.286/.336 | 1 | 1 | 75 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBNYY | 105 | .222/.291/.349 | 2 | 2 | 79 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 182 | 146 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 30 | 6 | 18 | 8 | 267 | 406 | 411 | 817 | 144 | 307 | 16 | 15 | 370 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 146 | 124 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 202 | 322 | 250 | 572 | 48 | 231 | 13 | 12 | 277 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 109 | 101 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 277 | 318 | 406 | 724 | 129 | 347 | 24 | 5 | 317 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 16 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 333 | 167 | 500 | 250 | 31 | 6 | 249 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 89 | 73 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 164 | 315 | 342 | 657 | 178 | 188 | 25 | 15 | 305 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 24 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 417 | 444 | 861 | 222 | 375 | 38 | 21 | 392 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 182 | 154 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 37 | 6 | 18 | 8 | 169 | 289 | 227 | 516 | 58 | 210 | 20 | 11 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 146 | 129 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 147 | 247 | 194 | 440 | 47 | 159 | 16 | 9 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 109 | 103 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 194 | 224 | 272 | 496 | 78 | 266 | 34 | 3 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 16 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 333 | 167 | 500 | 224 | 44 | 6 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 89 | 77 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 117 | 236 | 234 | 470 | 117 | 160 | 34 | 10 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 24 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 150 | 292 | 350 | 642 | 200 | 282 | 54 | 12 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 182 | 154 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 37 | 6 | 18 | 8 | 169 | 289 | 227 | 516 | 58 | 212 | 20 | 11 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 182 | 146 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 30 | 6 | 18 | 8 | 267 | 406 | 411 | 817 | 144 | 307 | 16 | 15 | 370 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 146 | 129 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 147 | 247 | 194 | 440 | 47 | 171 | 16 | 9 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 146 | 124 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 202 | 322 | 250 | 572 | 48 | 231 | 13 | 12 | 277 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 109 | 103 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 194 | 224 | 272 | 496 | 78 | 284 | 34 | 3 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Yankees | — | 109 | 101 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 277 | 318 | 406 | 724 | 129 | 347 | 24 | 5 | 317 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 129 | 109 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 128 | 258 | 248 | 506 | 119 | 190 | 38 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 129 | 103 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 36 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 175 | 336 | 340 | 676 | 165 | 219 | 28 | 15 | 314 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 182 | 154 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 37 | 6 | 18 | 8 | 169 | 289 | 227 | 516 | 58 | 210 | 20 | 11 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 146 | 128 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 148 | 247 | 195 | 442 | 47 | 159 | 16 | 9 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 109 | 104 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 192 | 224 | 269 | 494 | 77 | 266 | 34 | 3 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 129 | 109 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 128 | 258 | 248 | 506 | 119 | 191 | 38 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 146 | 128 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 148 | 247 | 195 | 442 | 47 | 159 | 16 | 9 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 109 | 104 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 192 | 224 | 269 | 494 | 77 | 266 | 34 | 3 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 129 | 109 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 128 | 258 | 248 | 506 | 119 | 191 | 38 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | NYY | 0% | 239 | 217 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 65 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 212 | 280 | 317 | 596 | 104 | 282 | 27 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -9 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | NYY | 34% | 136 | 123 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 285 | 332 | 617 | 114 | 284 | 26 | 7 | 278 | 75 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | NYY | 48% | 216 | 195 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 57 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 221 | 290 | 343 | 633 | 122 | 285 | 26 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | NYY | 53% | 298 | 270 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 78 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 224 | 293 | 353 | 646 | 129 | 286 | 26 | 7 | 290 | 82 | -6 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYY | 55% | 353 | 319 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 92 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 226 | 295 | 359 | 655 | 133 | 287 | 26 | 7 | 293 | 85 | -6 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYY | 56% | 383 | 346 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 99 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 227 | 297 | 364 | 661 | 136 | 287 | 26 | 8 | 296 | 86 | -6 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +8 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | NYY | 55% | 397 | 359 | 81 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 103 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 226 | 296 | 361 | 657 | 135 | 286 | 26 | 8 | 294 | 85 | -7 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | NYY | 55% | 399 | 361 | 81 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 104 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 224 | 294 | 356 | 650 | 132 | 285 | 26 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -8 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | NYY | 34% | 47 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 286 | 336 | 623 | 118 | 284 | 28 | 6 | 281 | 75 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | NYY | 48% | 105 | 95 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 291 | 349 | 640 | 127 | 285 | 27 | 8 | 287 | 79 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | NYY | 53% | 157 | 142 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 41 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 225 | 294 | 359 | 653 | 133 | 287 | 26 | 8 | 293 | 82 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | NYY | 55% | 193 | 174 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 50 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 227 | 296 | 366 | 662 | 138 | 287 | 26 | 7 | 296 | 85 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYY | 56% | 213 | 192 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 55 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 229 | 298 | 371 | 669 | 142 | 287 | 26 | 8 | 299 | 86 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | NYY | 55% | 218 | 196 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 56 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 297 | 368 | 665 | 140 | 286 | 26 | 8 | 297 | 85 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | NYY | 55% | 218 | 196 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 57 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 295 | 363 | 658 | 137 | 285 | 26 | 8 | 295 | 84 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1151 | 1038 | 236 | 42 | 6 | 30 | 87 | 300 | 16 | 21 | 6 | 227 | 297 | 366 | 663 | 139 | 289 | 26 | 8 | 295 | 73 | -22 | +2 | -0 | -7 | +25 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 586 | 133 | 24 | 3 | 17 | 49 | 169 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 227 | 296 | 365 | 661 | 138 | 288 | 26 | 8 | 295 | 73 | -13 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2826 | 2539 | 542 | 94 | 16 | 61 | 218 | 736 | 47 | 85 | 30 | 213 | 288 | 335 | 623 | 122 | 274 | 26 | 8 | 276 | 73 | -46 | +4 | -1 | -14 | +49 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 125 | 22 | 4 | 14 | 50 | 169 | 11 | 20 | 7 | 214 | 288 | 337 | 626 | 123 | 274 | 26 | 8 | 276 | 73 | -13 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ATampa Tarpons · 89 PAwOBA .298 → .225 (−73)K% 24.7% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.72% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 10.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.37% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | ×1.015 | 8.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | ×1.015 | 6.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.964 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 4.78% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .298 → .225; ISO .178 → .135; BABIP .188 → .160. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Yankees · 24 PAwOBA .383 → .239 (−144)K% 37.5% → 54.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 54.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 12.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.17% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 17.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 7.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 8.54% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .383 → .239; ISO .222 → .135; BABIP .375 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 16 PAwOBA .260 → .213 (−47)K% 31.2% → 40.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.25% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 40.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 3.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 12.50% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 9.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 25.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .260 → .213; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Yankees · 109 PAwOBA .314 → .204 (−110)K% 23.9% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.85% | ÷1.001 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 2.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.056 | ×0.820 | ×1.040 | ×0.995 | 21.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.043 | ×0.720 | ×1.040 | ×0.995 | 4.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.008 | ×0.720 | ×1.040 | ×0.995 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.67% | ÷2.059 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.01% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 312, 1B 111, 2B 109, 3B 102, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .314 → .204; ISO .129 → .065; BABIP .347 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL NYY Yankees · 146 PAwOBA .270 → .187 (−84)K% 13.0% → 15.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.01% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.33% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 8.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.74% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.95% | ÷1.015 | ×0.680 | ×1.045 | ×0.995 | 14.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.021 | ×0.600 | ×1.045 | ×0.995 | 0.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.045 | ×0.995 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.95% | ÷0.952 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.47% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 104, 3B 100, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .270 → .187; ISO .048 → .028; BABIP .231 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 182 PAwOBA .365 → .246 (−119)K% 16.5% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.48% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 11.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.30% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.28% | ÷0.961 | ×0.680 | ×1.015 | ×1.008 | 16.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.03% | ÷0.996 | ×0.600 | ×1.015 | ×1.008 | 3.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷0.996 | ×0.600 | ×1.015 | ×1.008 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.463 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.12% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 193, 1B 92, 2B 99, 3B 99, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .365 → .246; ISO .144 → .067; BABIP .307 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).