Luis Reyes

P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#752ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKCWS	12	10	42	5.74	2.79	25.8%	10.6%	—	K 17.5% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.02
2025	19	ACWS	23	23	87	4.34	3.25	22.9%	9.6%	—	K 16.9% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.41
2027PROJ	21	MLBCWS	—	—	0	5.26	5.26	16.9%	12.7%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBCWS	6	6	31	5.07	4.98	18.5%	11.5%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBCWS	9	9	47	4.87	4.77	19.5%	10.7%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command40

CompsLuis Hernandez (age 21) · Ryan Harvey (age 22) · Juan Nuñez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%16.9%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%4.2%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.3M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	16	9	38	181	49	30	6	56%	2.4	18.4%	20.7%	-2.3%	3.8%	7.17	6.24	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	16	9	38	181	49	30	6	56%	2.4	27.1%	16.6%	10.5%	3.3%	7.17	4.96	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	12	10	42	198	51	21	2	83%	3.5	17.5%	13.3%	4.3%	1.3%	5.74	4.02	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	12	10	42	198	51	21	2	83%	3.5	17.5%	13.3%	4.3%	1.3%	5.74	4.02	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	12	10	42	198	51	21	2	83%	3.5	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	1.0%	5.74	2.79	—
2025	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	23	23	87	385	88	37	6	100%	3.8	16.9%	11.3%	5.6%	2.4%	4.34	4.41	—
2025	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	23	23	87	385	88	37	6	100%	3.8	16.9%	11.3%	5.6%	2.4%	4.34	4.41	—
2025	19	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	23	23	87	385	88	37	6	100%	3.8	22.9%	9.6%	13.2%	1.6%	4.34	3.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.9%	12.7%	4.2%	2.9%	5.26	5.26	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	64	270	50	31	8	100%	5.3	18.5%	11.5%	7.0%	2.9%	5.04	4.95	+0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	64	270	53	29	8	100%	5.3	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	2.8%	4.84	4.74	+0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	64	270	55	28	8	100%	5.8	20.2%	10.2%	10.0%	2.8%	4.70	4.61	+0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	CWS	10	10	58	243	50	24	7	100%	5.8	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	2.8%	4.61	4.55	+0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	CWS	10	10	58	243	51	24	7	100%	5.8	20.8%	10.0%	10.9%	2.8%	4.56	4.52	+0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	CWS	9	9	56	237	49	24	7	100%	6.2	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.56	4.56	+0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	CWS	9	9	54	226	47	23	7	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	3.0%	4.61	4.65	+0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	CWS	8	8	50	211	43	22	7	100%	6.2	20.4%	10.4%	10.0%	3.1%	4.71	4.78	+0.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	CWS	8	8	49	206	45	20	7	100%	6.1	22.1%	9.9%	12.2%	3.3%	4.69	4.68	+0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	CWS	7	7	44	184	40	19	6	100%	6.2	21.7%	10.3%	11.4%	3.5%	4.81	4.89	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	CWS	6	6	31	131	24	15	4	100%	5.2	18.5%	11.5%	7.0%	2.9%	5.07	4.98	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	47	198	39	21	6	100%	5.2	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.87	4.77	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	53	224	45	23	6	100%	5.9	20.2%	10.2%	10.0%	2.9%	4.73	4.64	+0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	51	215	44	22	6	100%	5.7	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	2.9%	4.64	4.58	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	53	224	47	22	6	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.0%	10.9%	2.9%	4.59	4.55	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	52	220	46	22	6	100%	5.8	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.59	4.59	+0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	50	211	44	21	6	100%	6.2	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	3.0%	4.64	4.68	+0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	47	198	41	21	6	100%	5.9	20.4%	10.4%	10.0%	3.2%	4.74	4.81	+0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	46	194	43	19	7	100%	5.8	22.1%	9.9%	12.2%	3.4%	4.72	4.71	+0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	CWS	7	7	41	173	38	18	6	100%	5.9	21.7%	10.3%	11.4%	3.6%	4.84	4.92	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	81	472	1993	410	205	60	100%	5.8	20.6%	10.3%	10.3%	3.0%	4.72	4.33	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	174	87	25	100%	5.8	20.6%	10.3%	10.3%	3.0%	4.72	4.33	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		51	42	167	764	133	107	19	82%	3.3	17.4%	14.1%	3.4%	2.4%	5.34	4.74	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	50	200	915	159	129	22	82%	3.3	17.4%	14.1%	3.4%	2.4%	5.34	4.74	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 87 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.41 (+1.17)K% 22.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.86%	—	×0.740	16.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.61%	—	×1.180	11.34%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷0.853	×1.300	2.38%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL White Sox · 42 IPFIP 2.82 → 4.02 (+1.20)K% 25.8% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.76%	—	×0.680	17.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.61%	—	×1.250	13.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.01%	÷1.076	×1.400	1.31%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.82 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL White Sox · 38 IPFIP 4.73 → 6.24 (+1.50)K% 27.1% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.07%	—	×0.680	18.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.57%	—	×1.250	20.72%
HR / BF /BF	3.31%	÷1.233	×1.400	3.76%

Result: FIP 4.73 → 6.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	16.9%	12.7%	2.9%	—	4.77	19.4%	8.6%	192	-0.49	—	—	—
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	91
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	90
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	89
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	87
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	86
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	86
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	85
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	84
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Bishop Letson R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	19	SP	4.80	16.4%	12.4%	2.8%	.222	4.00	20.2%	9.3%	132	-0.80	2.44	195	84
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	83
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	83
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	83
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	83
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	83
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	83
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	82
Camilo Sanchez R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	21	SP-	5.26	15.2%	14.0%	3.1%	.289	7.17	13.8%	-0.2%	19	+1.91	3.57	117	82
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	56	20.1%	10.6%	1.15	4.77
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Scott Eyre ('09)	3.2	59	18.6%	11.5%	1.15	4.23
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Mike Munoz ('89-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.8	46	17.6%*	10.2%*	0.93*	4.46*