Luis Reyes
P
Kannapolis Cannon Ballers
Age 20
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.3 · 2031
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139129vR 120
ERA5.32
FIP5.32
K%16.4%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%3.7%
ROS IP61
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL White Sox | 16 | 9 | 38 | 181 | 49 | 30 | 6 | 56% | 2.4 | 18.4% | 20.7% | -2.3% | 3.2% | 7.17 | 5.91 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL White Sox | 16 | 9 | 38 | 181 | 49 | 30 | 6 | 56% | 2.4 | 27.1% | 16.6% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 7.17 | 4.96 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 12 | 10 | 42 | 198 | 51 | 21 | 2 | 83% | 3.5 | 17.5% | 13.3% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 5.74 | 3.97 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 12 | 10 | 42 | 198 | 51 | 21 | 2 | 83% | 3.5 | 25.8% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 1.0% | 5.74 | 2.79 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 23 | 23 | 87 | 385 | 88 | 37 | 6 | 100% | 3.8 | 16.9% | 11.3% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.68 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 23 | 23 | 87 | 385 | 88 | 37 | 6 | 100% | 3.8 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 1.6% | 4.34 | 3.25 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 42 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.32 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 48 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.7% | 11.7% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.12 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 54 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.0% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 59 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.74 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 62 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 72 | 305 | 64 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 72 | 305 | 65 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 64 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 61 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 66 | 278 | 58 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 53 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.4% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 10 | 58 | 244 | 49 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.97 | 5.09 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CWS | 6 | 6 | 31 | 131 | 23 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.7% | 11.7% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.15 | 5.09 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | CWS | 9 | 9 | 49 | 207 | 39 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.0% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.94 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 59 | 249 | 50 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 56 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 58 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 60 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 61 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.2% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 59 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 55 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 51 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 47 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 5.00 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 112 | 112 | 645 | 2725 | 557 | 281 | 81 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.32 | +8.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 173 | 87 | 25 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 51 | 42 | 167 | 764 | 133 | 107 | 19 | 82% | 3.3 | 17.4% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 5.34 | 4.79 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 50 | 200 | 915 | 159 | 129 | 23 | 82% | 3.3 | 17.4% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 5.34 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Reyes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.32 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.83 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 201 | -0.49 | — | — | — |
| Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 91 |
| Luis Hernandez R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.86 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 6.15 | 21.4% | 4.1% | 64 | +1.29 | 4.16 | 109 | 90 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.98 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .294 | 3.81 | 16.9% | 3.9% | 66 | -1.17 | 3.56 | 112 | 89 |
| Darlin Saladin R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.98 | 16.2% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .280 | 3.98 | 18.8% | 7.8% | 255 | -1.00 | 2.91 | 388 | 88 |
| Henry Williams R 2027 · 5.43 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.43 | 16.5% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .271 | 4.77 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 293 | -0.66 | 4.06 | 360 | 86 |
| Kamdyn Perry R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.18 | 18.6% | 12.8% | 3.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.18 | 123 | 86 |
| Bryan Balzer R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.0% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .360 | 4.78 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 73 | +0.20 | 4.58 | 123 | 85 |
| Luke Gabrysh R 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.59 | 13.8% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .271 | 5.55 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 59 | +0.96 | 4.59 | 138 | 85 |
| Yovanny Cabrera R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 13.7% | 2.8% | .238 | 5.31 | 18.5% | 1.6% | 149 | +0.15 | 4.39 | 243 | 85 |
| Jharold Clemente R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.08 | 17.5% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .258 | 5.35 | 13.3% | 4.3% | 92 | +0.27 | 3.91 | 116 | 84 |
| Ulices Campos R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.60 | 17.9% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .253 | 5.16 | 12.0% | 1.0% | 65 | +0.56 | 4.13 | 153 | 84 |
| Shane Panzini R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.42 | 17.3% | 15.8% | 3.2% | .335 | 4.94 | 18.5% | 5.5% | 251 | -0.48 | 4.58 | 338 | 84 |
| Josh Wolf R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.20 | 16.7% | 13.5% | 1.5% | .363 | 5.28 | 16.9% | -3.2% | 103 | +1.08 | 4.20 | 226 | 84 |
| Kohl Franklin R 2028 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.37 | 17.8% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .320 | 5.45 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 105 | +0.08 | 5.37 | 174 | 84 |
| Matthew Thompson R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.18 | 17.6% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .376 | 5.38 | 18.2% | 3.8% | 339 | +0.20 | 5.18 | 411 | 84 |
| Jose Disla R 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.52 | 15.8% | 13.4% | 3.8% | .296 | 4.46 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 70 | -1.06 | 3.57 | 139 | 83 |
| Khristian Curtis R 2028 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.58 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 183 | -0.81 | 4.52 | 258 | 83 |
| Jasseel De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.34 | 13.1% | 12.0% | 1.5% | .275 | 4.54 | 17.0% | 5.9% | 202 | +0.20 | 3.91 | 374 | 83 |
| Jeter Martinez R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.89 | 15.7% | 15.9% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 209 | 83 |
| Orlando Noriega R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.82 | 13.6% | 12.5% | 2.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 150 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 12 | 67 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 1.13 | 4.75 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Matt Moore ('24) | 8 | 98 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 1.33 | 4.82 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |