Luis Reyes — OGILVIE

Luis Reyes P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.5 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%16.4%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%3.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	16	9	38	181	49	30	6	56%	2.4	18.4%	20.7%	-2.3%	3.8%	7.17	6.24	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	16	9	38	181	49	30	6	56%	2.4	18.4%	20.7%	-2.3%	3.8%	7.17	6.24	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	16	9	38	181	49	30	6	56%	2.4	27.1%	16.6%	10.5%	3.3%	7.17	4.96	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	12	10	42	198	51	21	2	83%	3.5	17.5%	13.3%	4.3%	1.3%	5.74	4.02	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	12	10	42	198	51	21	2	83%	3.5	17.5%	13.3%	4.3%	1.3%	5.74	4.02	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	12	10	42	198	51	21	2	83%	3.5	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	1.0%	5.74	2.79	—
2025	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	23	23	87	385	88	37	6	100%	3.8	16.9%	11.3%	5.6%	2.4%	4.34	4.41	—
2025	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	23	23	87	385	88	37	6	100%	3.8	16.9%	11.3%	5.6%	2.4%	4.34	4.41	—
2025	19	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	23	23	87	385	88	37	6	100%	3.8	22.9%	9.6%	13.2%	1.6%	4.34	3.25	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	CWS	1	1	5	21	3	3	1	100%	5.0	16.4%	13.4%	3.0%	2.9%	5.36	5.36	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	82	347	61	42	10	100%	5.5	17.7%	12.2%	5.4%	2.8%	5.15	5.08	-0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	86	364	69	41	10	100%	5.4	18.9%	11.2%	7.7%	2.8%	4.92	4.82	+0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	90	378	75	40	10	100%	5.6	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	2.7%	4.74	4.64	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	92	387	79	39	10	100%	5.7	20.4%	10.1%	10.3%	2.7%	4.61	4.53	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	93	392	81	39	11	100%	5.8	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	2.7%	4.53	4.47	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	93	392	82	39	11	100%	6.2	21.0%	9.9%	11.0%	2.7%	4.48	4.45	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	91	386	81	39	11	100%	6.1	21.0%	10.0%	10.9%	2.7%	4.48	4.49	+0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	89	375	78	38	11	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.2%	10.7%	2.8%	4.53	4.57	+0.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	85	358	74	37	11	100%	6.0	20.6%	10.4%	10.2%	3.0%	4.63	4.70	+0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	80	336	75	33	11	100%	6.1	22.2%	9.9%	12.3%	3.2%	4.62	4.61	+0.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	74	313	68	32	11	100%	6.2	21.9%	10.2%	11.6%	3.4%	4.73	4.81	+0.1
2038	32	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	69	290	62	31	11	100%	6.2	21.4%	10.7%	10.8%	3.7%	4.91	5.04	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	CWS	7	7	40	169	30	21	5	100%	5.7	17.7%	12.2%	5.4%	2.9%	5.18	5.11	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	63	266	50	30	7	100%	5.7	18.9%	11.2%	7.7%	2.8%	4.95	4.85	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	75	317	63	33	9	100%	5.4	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	2.8%	4.77	4.67	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	82	346	71	35	10	100%	5.5	20.4%	10.1%	10.3%	2.8%	4.64	4.56	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	85	359	75	36	10	100%	5.7	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	2.7%	4.56	4.50	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	87	367	77	37	10	100%	6.2	21.0%	9.9%	11.0%	2.7%	4.51	4.48	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	87	367	77	37	10	100%	6.2	21.0%	10.0%	10.9%	2.8%	4.51	4.52	+0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	84	355	74	36	10	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.2%	10.7%	2.9%	4.56	4.60	+0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	80	338	70	35	10	100%	6.2	20.6%	10.4%	10.2%	3.0%	4.66	4.73	+0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	76	321	71	32	10	100%	5.8	22.2%	9.9%	12.3%	3.3%	4.65	4.64	+0.3
2037	31	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	70	296	65	30	10	100%	5.8	21.9%	10.2%	11.6%	3.5%	4.76	4.84	+0.1
2038	32	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	65	274	59	29	10	100%	5.9	21.4%	10.7%	10.8%	3.7%	4.95	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	155	895	3779	781	391	113	100%	5.8	20.7%	10.3%	10.3%	3.0%	4.69	4.30	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	175	87	25	100%	5.8	20.7%	10.3%	10.3%	3.0%	4.69	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		51	42	167	764	133	107	19	82%	3.3	17.4%	14.1%	3.4%	2.4%	5.34	4.74	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	50	200	915	159	129	22	82%	3.3	17.4%	14.1%	3.4%	2.4%	5.34	4.74	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	16.4%	13.4%	2.9%	—	4.84	18.8%	7.5%	258	-0.52	—	—	—
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	91
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	89
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	89
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	88
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	86
Yovanny Cabrera R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP	5.18	14.5%	13.7%	2.9%	.238	5.21	18.5%	1.6%	149	+0.03	4.39	243	86
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	85
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	85
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	85
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	85
Matthew Thompson R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	20	SP	5.03	17.6%	13.8%	3.0%	.376	5.27	18.2%	3.8%	339	+0.24	5.03	411	84
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	83
Gary Gill Hill R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP	4.91	14.1%	12.2%	2.6%	.356	4.59	16.1%	9.8%	380	-0.32	4.32	417	83
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	83
Jose Disla R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	20	SP	5.52	15.8%	13.4%	3.8%	.296	4.49	19.7%	8.8%	70	-1.03	3.61	139	83
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	83
Jasseel De La Cruz R 2017 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	13.1%	12.0%	1.5%	.275	4.36	17.0%	5.9%	202	+0.02	3.91	374	83
Orlando Noriega R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	19	SP	4.82	13.6%	12.5%	2.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	150	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	83
Ben Hernandez R 2021 · 4.36 FIP	20	SP	4.36	16.5%	14.4%	1.5%	.337	4.59	12.4%	-0.3%	186	+0.23	4.00	301	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	83	20.3%	10.6%	1.13	4.72
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43