Luis Reyes — OGILVIE

Luis Reyes P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

+0.4 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.8 · 2032

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.0%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%10.8%

IP87

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.8peak

2032

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL White Sox	16	9	38	181	49	30	6	18.4%	20.7%	3.3%	7.17	5.96	-0.4
2024	18	ROK	ACL White Sox	12	10	42	198	51	21	2	17.5%	13.3%	1.3%	5.74	3.99	+0.5
2025	19	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	23	23	87	385	88	37	6	16.9%	11.3%	2.3%	4.34	4.38	+0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	CWS	16	16	87	367	77	38	10	21.0%	10.2%	2.8%	4.56	4.56	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	CWS	17	17	91	386	83	37	11	21.5%	9.5%	2.8%	4.46	4.41	+0.8
2028	22	MLB	CWS	21	21	118	498	112	44	14	22.4%	8.8%	2.8%	4.31	4.21	+1.5
2029	23	MLB	CWS	26	26	142	601	139	51	16	23.2%	8.4%	2.7%	4.18	4.08	+2.0
2030	24	MLB	CWS	29	29	162	684	162	56	18	23.7%	8.2%	2.7%	4.07	4.00	+2.4
2031	25	MLB	CWS	32	32	176	743	179	60	20	24.0%	8.0%	2.7%	3.99	3.94	+2.7
2032	26	MLB	CWS	32	32	176	743	180	59	20	24.2%	8.0%	2.7%	3.95	3.92	+2.8
2033	27	MLB	CWS	32	32	175	738	179	59	20	24.3%	8.0%	2.7%	3.94	3.93	+2.7
2034	28	MLB	CWS	32	32	174	735	178	59	20	24.2%	8.1%	2.7%	3.95	3.96	+2.6
2035	29	MLB	CWS	31	31	170	719	173	59	20	24.1%	8.2%	2.8%	3.98	4.00	+2.5
2036	30	MLB	CWS	30	30	165	697	167	58	20	23.9%	8.2%	2.8%	4.03	4.06	+2.3
2037	31	MLB	CWS	29	29	159	673	159	56	20	23.6%	8.4%	2.9%	4.09	4.14	+2.1
2038	32	MLB	CWS	28	28	153	646	151	55	19	23.4%	8.5%	3.0%	4.17	4.22	+1.9
2039	33	MLB	CWS	27	27	146	616	142	54	19	23.1%	8.7%	3.1%	4.26	4.32	+1.6
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			51	42	167	764	133	107	17	17.4%	14.1%	2.3%	5.34	4.65	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—			61	50	200	915	159	128	20	17.4%	14.1%	2.3%	5.34	4.65	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	21.0%	10.2%	2.8%	—	4.21	22.5%	13.7%	352	-0.35	—	—	—
Michael Forret R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP-	3.99	21.8%	11.8%	2.2%	.302	2.67	25.1%	16.6%	74	-1.32	2.67	174	92
Micah Ottenbreit R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	21	SP-	4.31	17.9%	11.8%	2.2%	.305	3.04	14.7%	10.3%	24	-1.27	3.04	118	91
Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.3%	11.4%	2.5%	.278	5.17	16.8%	2.6%	91	+0.98	3.82	406	91
Will Sanders R 2028 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	90
Johnathan Harmon R 2028 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.8%	10.2%	2.5%	.293	3.81	16.1%	8.1%	69	-0.48	3.51	157	89
Josh Bostick R 2028 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	88
Josh Grosz R 2027 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP-	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	4.75	19.4%	7.6%	125	-0.08	4.75	243	88
Logan Hofmann R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	21	SP-	4.51	22.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.239	6.75	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.24	4.51	129	88
Braden Webb R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	88
CJ Van Eyk R 2028 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	88
Brett Wichrowski R 2027 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	17.0%	11.2%	1.8%	.267	4.54	14.5%	3.5%	113	+0.45	4.06	202	88
Shelby Lackey R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	88
Nick Sinacola R 2028 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	88
Mason Hickman R 2028 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP-	4.73	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.45	24.0%	10.8%	181	+0.72	4.73	300	87
Jose Almonte R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	4.01	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.10	4.01	279	87
Aaron Davenport R 2028 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	87
Sam Carlson R 2028 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.9%	11.2%	2.3%	.334	3.73	19.9%	9.1%	153	-0.56	3.20	313	87
Jordan Foley R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	19.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.294	4.02	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.17	3.21	305	87
Trevor Martin R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.28	20.2%	11.6%	172	+0.04	4.19	282	87
Devereaux Harrison R 2028 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	17.6%	11.3%	3.5%	.252	4.82	17.2%	4.7%	230	-0.14	4.73	324	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.7	$25M	+$24M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.8	$27M	+$26M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.7	$27M	+$26M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.7	$27M	+$23M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+2.5	$26M	+$19M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$14M		$132M	+$118M