Brady Smith

P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTFG #824MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP45ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	MIX2 levels	10	9	21	6.00	4.15	31.9%	19.8%	—	K 31.9% · BB 19.8% · FIP 4.12
2026	21	MIX2 levels	23	23	81	4.24	2.89	34.2%	9.9%	—	K 25.4% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.26
2027PROJ	22	MLBDET	10	10	56	4.61	4.61	24.8%	12.2%	0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBDET	7	7	37	4.41	4.34	25.4%	11.2%	0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBDET	10	10	54	4.30	4.22	25.8%	10.7%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$5M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff52Control50Command40FB velo52

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 8, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 80%

CompsBrandon Young (age 22) · Carmen Mlodzinski (age 22) · River Ryan (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%24.8%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD3040

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	21	91	29	18	2	90%	2.1	31.9%	19.8%	12.1%	2.2%	6.00	4.12	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	21	91	29	18	2	90%	2.1	31.9%	19.8%	12.1%	2.2%	6.00	4.12	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	21	91	29	18	2	90%	2.1	31.9%	19.8%	12.1%	2.2%	6.00	4.15	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	81	345	118	34	9	100%	3.5	25.4%	11.6%	13.9%	3.4%	4.24	4.26	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	81	345	118	34	9	100%	3.5	25.4%	11.6%	13.9%	3.4%	4.24	4.26	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	81	345	118	34	9	100%	3.5	34.2%	9.9%	24.3%	2.6%	4.24	2.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	DET	10	10	56	236	59	29	7	100%	5.6	24.8%	12.2%	12.6%	3.1%	4.61	4.61	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	75	318	81	36	10	100%	5.4	25.4%	11.2%	14.2%	3.0%	4.48	4.41	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	77	326	84	35	10	100%	5.5	25.8%	10.7%	15.1%	3.0%	4.37	4.29	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	78	330	86	34	10	100%	6.0	26.1%	10.4%	15.7%	3.0%	4.28	4.22	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	78	330	87	34	10	100%	6.0	26.2%	10.3%	15.9%	3.0%	4.24	4.20	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	77	325	85	34	10	100%	5.9	26.2%	10.4%	15.8%	3.0%	4.24	4.24	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	75	315	82	33	10	100%	6.2	26.1%	10.5%	15.6%	3.1%	4.29	4.32	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	71	301	78	32	10	100%	5.9	25.9%	10.8%	15.1%	3.3%	4.39	4.45	+0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	67	283	72	31	10	100%	6.1	25.5%	11.1%	14.5%	3.5%	4.54	4.63	+0.2
2036	31	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	62	264	66	30	10	100%	6.2	25.1%	11.4%	13.7%	3.7%	4.72	4.83	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	37	156	40	18	5	100%	5.3	25.4%	11.2%	14.2%	2.9%	4.41	4.34	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	54	228	59	24	7	100%	5.4	25.8%	10.7%	15.1%	2.9%	4.30	4.22	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	63	266	69	28	8	100%	5.7	26.1%	10.4%	15.7%	2.8%	4.21	4.15	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	68	287	75	30	8	100%	6.2	26.2%	10.3%	15.9%	2.8%	4.17	4.13	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	70	296	77	31	9	100%	5.8	26.2%	10.4%	15.8%	2.9%	4.17	4.17	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	69	291	76	31	9	100%	5.8	26.1%	10.5%	15.6%	3.0%	4.22	4.25	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	66	279	72	30	9	100%	6.0	25.9%	10.8%	15.1%	3.1%	4.31	4.37	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	63	266	68	29	9	100%	6.3	25.5%	11.1%	14.5%	3.3%	4.46	4.55	+0.2
2036	31	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	59	249	63	28	9	100%	5.9	25.1%	11.4%	13.7%	3.5%	4.63	4.74	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		93	93	549	2320	600	248	71	100%	5.9	25.8%	10.7%	15.1%	3.0%	4.31	3.94	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	218	90	26	100%	5.9	25.8%	10.7%	15.1%	3.0%	4.31	3.94	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		33	32	102	436	117	58	14	97%	3.1	26.8%	13.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.60	4.23	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	63	200	858	230	114	27	97%	3.1	26.8%	13.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.60	4.23	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brady Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	24.8%	12.2%	3.1%	—	4.31	25.8%	15.0%	231	-0.30	—	—	—
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	86
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.86	20.8%	11.3%	236	-0.47	3.16	524	84
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.88	20.3%	9.2%	134	+0.19	2.44	223	84
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	83
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	83
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	83
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	82
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	81
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	81
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	80
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	80
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	80
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	80
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	79
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	79
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	78
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	78
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.85	19.4%	6.3%	322	+0.59	4.26	422	78
Michael Grove R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	24.3%	9.5%	3.9%	.409	5.45	21.8%	11.5%	176	+1.06	3.01	396	78
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	72	25.8%	10.8%	1.22	4.40
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Doug Bair ('76-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	76	25.2%*	10.4%*	1.22*	4.12*
Jeff Parrett ('86-'96, 6 WAR*)	3.6	72	24.8%*	11.0%*	1.02*	4.07*
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Dominic Leone ('24)	2.1	54	23.9%	10.4%	1.26	3.94