Tai Peete
OF Peoria Chiefs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | AModesto Nuts | 528 | .269/.346/.408 | 7 | 45 | 59 | — | .211/.270/.310 |
| 2025 | 19 | A+SEA | 529 | .217/.290/.404 | 19 | 25 | 35 | — | .156/.214/.281 |
| 2026 | 20 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 361 | .316/.382/.595 | 15 | 25 | 124 | — | .252/.300/.456 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBSTL | 1 | .199/.253/.345 | 0 | 0 | 67 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 22 | MLBSTL | 101 | .206/.262/.364 | 3 | 3 | 75 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ49% MLB | 23 | MLBSTL | 180 | .212/.269/.378 | 6 | 5 | 81 | -0.1 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 67 | 62 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 242 | 299 | 387 | 686 | 145 | 317 | 28 | 7 | 307 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | ACL Mariners | — | 42 | 37 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 351 | 429 | 432 | 861 | 81 | 500 | 26 | 12 | 389 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 528 | 468 | 126 | 26 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 162 | 0 | 45 | 5 | 269 | 346 | 408 | 754 | 139 | 391 | 31 | 10 | 335 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 529 | 475 | 103 | 24 | 4 | 19 | 46 | 162 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 217 | 290 | 404 | 694 | 187 | 282 | 31 | 9 | 306 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 100 | 94 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 319 | 360 | 489 | 849 | 170 | 397 | 23 | 6 | 375 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 200 | 180 | 54 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 57 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 300 | 370 | 611 | 981 | 311 | 389 | 28 | 10 | 421 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 61 | 52 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 365 | 459 | 731 | 1.190 | 365 | 486 | 25 | 15 | 501 | 225 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 67 | 63 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 206 | 254 | 333 | 587 | 127 | 302 | 37 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 42 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 256 | 310 | 333 | 643 | 77 | 416 | 38 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 528 | 484 | 102 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 39 | 222 | 0 | 45 | 5 | 211 | 270 | 310 | 580 | 99 | 361 | 42 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 529 | 488 | 76 | 18 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 229 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 156 | 214 | 281 | 494 | 125 | 248 | 43 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 100 | 96 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 271 | 300 | 396 | 696 | 125 | 378 | 28 | 4 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 200 | 185 | 45 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 72 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 243 | 300 | 486 | 786 | 243 | 347 | 36 | 8 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 109 | 102 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 41 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 225 | 275 | 333 | 609 | 108 | 356 | 38 | 6 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 109 | 99 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 283 | 349 | 404 | 753 | 121 | 388 | 28 | 9 | 338 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 528 | 484 | 102 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 39 | 222 | 0 | 45 | 5 | 211 | 270 | 310 | 580 | 99 | 368 | 42 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 528 | 468 | 126 | 26 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 162 | 0 | 45 | 5 | 269 | 346 | 408 | 754 | 139 | 391 | 31 | 10 | 335 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 529 | 488 | 76 | 18 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 229 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 156 | 214 | 281 | 494 | 125 | 252 | 43 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ RAW | Everett AquaSox | — | 529 | 475 | 103 | 24 | 4 | 19 | 46 | 162 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 217 | 290 | 404 | 694 | 187 | 282 | 31 | 9 | 306 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 361 | 338 | 86 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 23 | 121 | 0 | 25 | 11 | 254 | 302 | 456 | 758 | 201 | 361 | 34 | 6 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 361 | 326 | 103 | 24 | 11 | 15 | 35 | 95 | 0 | 25 | 11 | 316 | 382 | 595 | 977 | 279 | 407 | 26 | 10 | 422 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 109 | 101 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 41 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 228 | 275 | 337 | 612 | 109 | 346 | 38 | 6 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 528 | 484 | 102 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 39 | 222 | 0 | 45 | 5 | 211 | 270 | 310 | 580 | 99 | 361 | 42 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 529 | 488 | 76 | 18 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 229 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 156 | 214 | 281 | 494 | 125 | 248 | 43 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 361 | 335 | 86 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 23 | 121 | 0 | 25 | 11 | 257 | 302 | 460 | 762 | 203 | 357 | 34 | 6 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 528 | 484 | 102 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 39 | 222 | 0 | 45 | 5 | 211 | 270 | 310 | 580 | 99 | 361 | 42 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 529 | 488 | 76 | 18 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 229 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 156 | 214 | 281 | 494 | 125 | 248 | 43 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 361 | 335 | 86 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 23 | 121 | 0 | 25 | 11 | 257 | 302 | 460 | 762 | 203 | 357 | 34 | 6 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | STL | 0% | 410 | 380 | 76 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 142 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 199 | 254 | 349 | 603 | 150 | 281 | 35 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -16 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +9 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB CTX | STL | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 253 | 345 | 598 | 145 | 283 | 0 | 0 | 265 | 67 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | STL | 35% | 292 | 270 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 98 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 207 | 263 | 370 | 633 | 163 | 283 | 34 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | STL | 49% | 371 | 342 | 73 | 15 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 121 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 212 | 270 | 385 | 655 | 173 | 284 | 33 | 7 | 289 | 81 | -8 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | STL | 53% | 419 | 384 | 84 | 17 | 4 | 15 | 30 | 133 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 217 | 276 | 394 | 670 | 178 | 286 | 32 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -7 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | STL | 55% | 444 | 407 | 90 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 32 | 139 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 219 | 279 | 399 | 678 | 180 | 286 | 31 | 7 | 298 | 88 | -6 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | STL | 56% | 496 | 455 | 100 | 20 | 4 | 18 | 36 | 153 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 220 | 282 | 401 | 682 | 180 | 286 | 31 | 7 | 300 | 89 | -6 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +11 | 0.4 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | STL | 55% | 456 | 418 | 91 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 33 | 141 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 219 | 281 | 398 | 679 | 179 | 286 | 31 | 7 | 299 | 88 | -6 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | STL | 55% | 452 | 414 | 91 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 33 | 141 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 217 | 278 | 393 | 672 | 176 | 284 | 31 | 7 | 296 | 87 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +10 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | STL | 53% | 441 | 404 | 86 | 17 | 3 | 15 | 32 | 139 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 215 | 276 | 387 | 663 | 172 | 283 | 32 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -8 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | STL | 53% | 430 | 394 | 82 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 137 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 212 | 272 | 379 | 651 | 168 | 281 | 32 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -10 | -0 | -1 | -3 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | STL | 35% | 101 | 93 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 262 | 364 | 626 | 158 | 285 | 34 | 7 | 277 | 75 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | STL | 49% | 180 | 165 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 59 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 212 | 269 | 378 | 648 | 167 | 286 | 33 | 7 | 286 | 81 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | STL | 53% | 221 | 202 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 70 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 216 | 275 | 387 | 662 | 172 | 287 | 32 | 7 | 292 | 86 | -4 | +0 | +1 | -1 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | STL | 55% | 243 | 223 | 48 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 76 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 218 | 278 | 392 | 670 | 174 | 288 | 31 | 7 | 295 | 88 | -3 | +0 | +1 | -1 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | STL | 56% | 276 | 253 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 85 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 220 | 281 | 393 | 674 | 174 | 288 | 31 | 7 | 297 | 89 | -3 | +0 | +1 | -2 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | STL | 55% | 251 | 230 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 78 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 218 | 280 | 391 | 671 | 172 | 287 | 31 | 7 | 296 | 88 | -3 | +0 | +1 | -2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | STL | 55% | 247 | 226 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 77 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 217 | 278 | 386 | 664 | 170 | 286 | 31 | 7 | 293 | 87 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | STL | 53% | 235 | 215 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 74 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 214 | 275 | 380 | 655 | 166 | 285 | 31 | 7 | 290 | 84 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | STL | 53% | 226 | 207 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 72 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 211 | 271 | 373 | 644 | 162 | 282 | 32 | 7 | 285 | 81 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1980 | 1814 | 388 | 80 | 17 | 64 | 141 | 625 | 8 | 52 | 21 | 214 | 274 | 383 | 656 | 169 | 286 | 32 | 7 | 291 | 78 | -35 | +2 | +2 | -12 | +43 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 128 | 26 | 6 | 21 | 46 | 205 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 215 | 275 | 384 | 659 | 169 | 287 | 32 | 7 | 291 | 78 | -11 | +1 | +1 | -4 | +14 | 0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5538 | 5094 | 1079 | 215 | 50 | 171 | 386 | 1888 | 20 | 204 | 72 | 212 | 270 | 374 | 644 | 163 | 297 | 34 | 7 | 283 | 78 | -77 | +3 | +5 | -24 | +87 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 126 | 25 | 6 | 20 | 45 | 222 | 2 | 24 | 8 | 211 | 268 | 373 | 641 | 162 | 295 | 34 | 7 | 283 | 78 | -12 | +0 | +1 | -4 | +14 | -0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 200 PAwOBA .409 → .324 (−85)K% 28.5% → 36.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 36.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 7.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 18.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 9.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 4.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 6.68% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .409 → .324; ISO .311 → .240; BABIP .389 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 100 PAwOBA .364 → .317 (−47)K% 23.0% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | ×1.050 | 28.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.007 | ×1.050 | 6.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.007 | ×1.050 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 3.55% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .364 → .317; ISO .170 → .142; BABIP .397 → .378. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Everett AquaSox · 529 PAwOBA .299 → .220 (−79)K% 30.6% → 43.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.62% | ÷0.957 | ×1.350 | — | — | 43.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.51% | ÷0.999 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 6.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.042 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.89% | ÷1.001 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | ×1.042 | 16.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.67% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×0.963 | ×1.042 | 6.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×0.963 | ×1.042 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.07% | ÷1.036 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.042 | 5.07% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .299 → .220; ISO .187 → .132; BABIP .282 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AModesto Nuts · 528 PAwOBA .329 → .256 (−73)K% 30.7% → 42.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.68% | ÷0.993 | ×1.360 | — | — | 42.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.23% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 7.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.45% | ÷0.970 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×1.045 | 26.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.50% | ÷1.076 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×1.045 | 6.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.987 | ×1.045 | 2.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.29% | ÷0.897 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 2.13% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 94, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .329 → .256; ISO .139 → .103; BABIP .391 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AModesto Nuts · 67 PAwOBA .298 → .244 (−54)K% 28.4% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.36% | ÷1.026 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.46% | ÷1.013 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 23.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 5.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.65% | ÷0.883 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 4.43% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .298 → .244; ISO .145 → .118; BABIP .317 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Mariners · 42 PAwOBA .380 → .268 (−112)K% 26.2% → 38.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.19% | ÷0.992 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.90% | ÷0.989 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 7.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.31% | ÷0.987 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 35.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.993 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .380 → .268; ISO .081 → .053; BABIP .500 → .416. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .