A.J. Vukovich
OF Reno Aces| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AAARI | 512 | .270/.344/.458 | 17 | 6 | 84 | — | .240/.295/.378 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAAARI | 476 | .284/.357/.498 | 22 | 0 | 103 | — | .258/.314/.425 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/ROKARI | 280 | .260/.329/.445 | 10 | 1 | 73 | — | .225/.279/.364 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 26 | MLBARI | 16 | .241/.296/.394 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 27 | MLBARI | 62 | .241/.297/.393 | 2 | 0 | 89 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 28 | MLBARI | 98 | .240/.296/.389 | 3 | 0 | 88 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 20 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 124 | 121 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 298 | 315 | 438 | 753 | 140 | 367 | 23 | 2 | 332 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 276 | 247 | 64 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 77 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 259 | 327 | 449 | 777 | 190 | 329 | 28 | 7 | 340 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 45 | 44 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 295 | 311 | 432 | 743 | 136 | 379 | 29 | 2 | 329 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 448 | 424 | 116 | 26 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 105 | 4 | 35 | 4 | 274 | 309 | 450 | 760 | 177 | 330 | 23 | 4 | 333 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 507 | 456 | 120 | 19 | 5 | 24 | 46 | 144 | 3 | 20 | 9 | 263 | 335 | 485 | 819 | 221 | 331 | 28 | 9 | 359 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 86 | 80 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 275 | 326 | 338 | 663 | 62 | 386 | 27 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 512 | 456 | 123 | 29 | 3 | 17 | 48 | 153 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 270 | 344 | 458 | 803 | 189 | 366 | 30 | 9 | 353 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 476 | 426 | 121 | 19 | 3 | 22 | 46 | 129 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 284 | 357 | 498 | 854 | 214 | 357 | 27 | 10 | 375 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 256 | 236 | 63 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 267 | 324 | 449 | 773 | 182 | 338 | 26 | 7 | 342 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | ROK | ACL D-backs | — | 24 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 375 | 389 | 764 | 222 | 182 | 25 | 21 | 354 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 20 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 124 | 122 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 221 | 234 | 303 | 537 | 82 | 327 | 31 | 2 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 276 | 253 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 106 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 206 | 261 | 352 | 613 | 146 | 298 | 38 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 45 | 44 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 244 | 295 | 540 | 68 | 344 | 36 | 2 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 448 | 429 | 101 | 19 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 135 | 4 | 35 | 4 | 235 | 265 | 387 | 652 | 152 | 305 | 30 | 3 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 507 | 467 | 95 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 35 | 175 | 3 | 20 | 9 | 203 | 263 | 325 | 589 | 122 | 298 | 35 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 512 | 471 | 113 | 26 | 3 | 11 | 33 | 183 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 240 | 295 | 378 | 673 | 138 | 357 | 36 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 476 | 438 | 113 | 16 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 151 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 258 | 314 | 425 | 739 | 167 | 350 | 32 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 256 | 241 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 80 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 232 | 277 | 365 | 642 | 133 | 325 | 31 | 5 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 24 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 150 | 292 | 350 | 642 | 200 | 129 | 38 | 12 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 400 | 375 | 80 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 145 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 213 | 255 | 339 | 594 | 125 | 312 | 36 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 400 | 368 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 105 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 272 | 323 | 446 | 769 | 174 | 343 | 26 | 6 | 337 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 474 | 112 | 19 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 151 | 4 | 36 | 4 | 236 | 263 | 380 | 642 | 143 | 313 | 31 | 3 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 493 | 468 | 129 | 26 | 2 | 17 | 19 | 118 | 4 | 36 | 4 | 276 | 310 | 449 | 758 | 173 | 334 | 24 | 4 | 333 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 593 | 544 | 112 | 19 | 5 | 13 | 42 | 205 | 5 | 33 | 13 | 206 | 269 | 331 | 600 | 125 | 302 | 35 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 593 | 536 | 142 | 24 | 5 | 24 | 50 | 167 | 5 | 33 | 13 | 265 | 333 | 463 | 796 | 198 | 340 | 28 | 8 | 351 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 512 | 471 | 113 | 26 | 3 | 11 | 33 | 183 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 240 | 295 | 378 | 673 | 138 | 363 | 36 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 512 | 456 | 123 | 29 | 3 | 17 | 48 | 153 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 270 | 344 | 458 | 803 | 189 | 366 | 30 | 9 | 353 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 476 | 438 | 113 | 16 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 151 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 258 | 314 | 425 | 739 | 167 | 353 | 32 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA RAW | Reno Aces | — | 476 | 426 | 121 | 19 | 3 | 22 | 46 | 129 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 284 | 357 | 498 | 854 | 214 | 357 | 27 | 10 | 375 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 280 | 261 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 279 | 364 | 643 | 138 | 315 | 32 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 280 | 254 | 66 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 73 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 260 | 329 | 445 | 773 | 185 | 327 | 26 | 8 | 343 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 400 | 376 | 80 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 145 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 213 | 255 | 338 | 593 | 125 | 307 | 36 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 473 | 112 | 19 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 151 | 4 | 36 | 4 | 237 | 263 | 381 | 643 | 144 | 309 | 31 | 3 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 593 | 541 | 112 | 19 | 5 | 13 | 42 | 205 | 5 | 33 | 13 | 207 | 269 | 333 | 602 | 126 | 298 | 35 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 512 | 470 | 113 | 26 | 3 | 11 | 33 | 183 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 240 | 295 | 379 | 674 | 138 | 357 | 36 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 476 | 437 | 113 | 16 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 151 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 259 | 314 | 426 | 740 | 167 | 350 | 32 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 280 | 259 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 228 | 279 | 367 | 645 | 139 | 308 | 32 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 512 | 470 | 113 | 26 | 3 | 11 | 33 | 183 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 240 | 295 | 379 | 674 | 138 | 357 | 36 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 476 | 437 | 113 | 16 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 151 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 259 | 314 | 426 | 740 | 167 | 350 | 32 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 280 | 259 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 228 | 279 | 367 | 645 | 139 | 308 | 32 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | ARI | 10% | 330 | 304 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 21 | 103 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 236 | 291 | 385 | 676 | 150 | 320 | 31 | 6 | 299 | 89 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +7 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | ARI | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 296 | 394 | 690 | 153 | 331 | 31 | 6 | 305 | 89 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | ARI | 31% | 199 | 183 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 291 | 384 | 675 | 149 | 317 | 31 | 7 | 299 | 89 | -3 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | ARI | 42% | 232 | 213 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 71 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 234 | 290 | 380 | 671 | 147 | 315 | 31 | 6 | 298 | 88 | -3 | -0 | -1 | -1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | ARI | 31% | 62 | 58 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 297 | 393 | 689 | 152 | 328 | 31 | 6 | 305 | 89 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | ARI | 42% | 98 | 90 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 296 | 389 | 685 | 150 | 326 | 31 | 7 | 303 | 88 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 160 | 148 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 49 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 300 | 405 | 705 | 162 | 330 | 31 | 7 | 304 | 79 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +3 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 601 | 145 | 28 | 4 | 20 | 45 | 199 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 298 | 401 | 699 | 160 | 327 | 31 | 7 | 304 | 79 | -9 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +14 | -0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3340 | 3102 | 715 | 129 | 19 | 90 | 191 | 1104 | 28 | 94 | 30 | 230 | 281 | 371 | 653 | 141 | 325 | 33 | 6 | 285 | 79 | -8 | -1 | -1 | -4 | +13 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 140 | 25 | 4 | 18 | 37 | 215 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 232 | 281 | 376 | 657 | 144 | 326 | 33 | 6 | 285 | 79 | -9 | -1 | -1 | -4 | +14 | -0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAReno Aces · 256 PAwOBA .333 → .281 (−52)K% 26.2% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.17% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.045 | ×1.033 | 23.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.045 | ×1.033 | 7.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.045 | ×1.033 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.85% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .333 → .281; ISO .182 → .138; BABIP .338 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL D-backs · 24 PAwOBA .346 → .227 (−119)K% 25.0% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 12.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.17% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 2.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 6.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 5.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 6.14% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .346 → .227; ISO .222 → .157; BABIP .182 → .129. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAReno Aces · 476 PAwOBA .365 → .321 (−44)K% 27.1% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.10% | ÷1.025 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.45% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.42% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.93% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×1.044 | ×1.048 | 26.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.40% | ÷1.069 | ×0.830 | ×1.044 | ×1.048 | 5.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷0.902 | ×0.970 | ×1.044 | ×1.048 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.41% | ÷0.904 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 6.01% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.
Result: wOBA .365 → .321; ISO .214 → .175; BABIP .357 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 512 PAwOBA .346 → .293 (−53)K% 29.9% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.88% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.18% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.42% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 24.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.57% | ÷0.966 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 8.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷0.987 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.61% | ÷1.229 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.75% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 95, 2B 93, 3B 97, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .346 → .293; ISO .189 → .143; BABIP .366 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 507 PAwOBA .350 → .263 (−86)K% 28.4% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.40% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.88% | ÷0.922 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 7.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.59% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×1.040 | ×1.042 | 21.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.09% | ÷1.008 | ×0.840 | ×1.040 | ×1.042 | 5.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.60% | ÷1.124 | ×0.940 | ×1.040 | ×1.042 | 1.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.637 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 3.92% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 227, 1B 111, 2B 102, 3B 125, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .350 → .263; ISO .221 → .130; BABIP .331 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hillsboro Hops · 448 PAwOBA .325 → .278 (−47)K% 23.4% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.44% | ÷1.046 | ×1.350 | — | — | 30.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.79% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 2.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.88% | ÷0.965 | ×0.910 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 22.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.15% | ÷1.100 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 6.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷1.006 | ×0.820 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.70% | ÷0.848 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 4.73% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 93, 2B 120, 3B 101, K 109, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .325 → .278; ISO .177 → .151; BABIP .330 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 45 PAwOBA .320 → .256 (−63)K% 28.9% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.89% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.22% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.48% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 32.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.022 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.094 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 4.95% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 88, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .320 → .256; ISO .136 → .096; BABIP .379 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AVisalia Rawhide · 276 PAwOBA .335 → .264 (−71)K% 27.9% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.90% | ÷0.988 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.88% | ÷1.013 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 4.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.35% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×1.030 | 21.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷1.056 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.030 | 7.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.054 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×1.030 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.923 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 5.25% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 101, 2B 111, 3B 111, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .335 → .264; ISO .190 → .148; BABIP .329 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .