Izack Tiger — OGILVIE

Izack Tiger P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%25.0%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5560

CTRL—45

CMD3045

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	3	1	4	18	4	2	0	33%	1.3	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	2.25	2.63	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	3	1	4	18	4	2	0	33%	1.3	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	2.25	2.63	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	3	1	4	18	4	2	0	33%	1.3	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	2.25	2.60	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	12	46	191	59	21	4	92%	3.5	22.4%	14.4%	8.0%	3.4%	2.93	4.93	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	12	46	191	59	21	4	92%	3.5	22.4%	14.4%	8.0%	3.4%	2.93	4.93	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	12	46	191	59	21	4	92%	3.5	30.9%	11.0%	19.9%	2.1%	2.93	3.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	12	9	27	122	43	9	7	75%	2.3	23.3%	8.4%	14.9%	9.1%	6.91	7.20	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	12	9	27	122	43	9	7	75%	2.3	23.3%	8.4%	14.9%	9.1%	6.91	7.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	TEX	4	2	7	26	14	2	0	50%	1.7	53.8%	7.7%	46.2%	0.0%	2.70	-0.47	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	TEX	8	7	21	96	29	7	7	88%	2.6	30.2%	7.3%	22.9%	7.3%	8.27	5.48	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TEX	1	1	5	21	5	3	1	100%	5.0	25.0%	13.3%	11.7%	3.0%	4.73	4.73	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	32	143	48	12	8	—	—	33.7%	8.3%	25.5%	5.3%	6.58	6.82	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	72	302	76	39	9	100%	6.0	25.1%	12.9%	12.2%	3.0%	4.67	4.66	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	70	297	74	38	9	100%	5.9	24.9%	12.7%	12.2%	3.1%	4.66	4.67	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	68	288	71	37	9	100%	6.2	24.7%	12.7%	12.0%	3.2%	4.70	4.74	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	65	275	67	35	9	100%	5.9	24.4%	12.8%	11.6%	3.3%	4.79	4.86	+0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	61	259	62	34	9	100%	6.1	24.1%	13.1%	11.0%	3.5%	4.94	5.04	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	TEX	5	5	31	131	33	17	4	100%	6.2	25.1%	12.9%	12.2%	3.3%	4.79	4.78	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	44	186	46	24	6	100%	6.3	24.9%	12.7%	12.2%	3.3%	4.79	4.80	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	51	215	53	27	7	100%	6.4	24.7%	12.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.83	4.87	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	53	224	55	29	8	100%	5.9	24.4%	12.8%	11.6%	3.6%	4.93	5.00	+0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	53	224	54	29	8	100%	5.9	24.1%	13.1%	11.0%	3.8%	5.09	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	39	232	980	241	126	34	100%	5.9	24.6%	12.8%	11.8%	3.5%	4.90	4.57	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	208	109	29	100%	6.0	24.6%	12.8%	11.8%	3.5%	4.90	4.57	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		28	22	77	331	75	40	18	79%	2.8	22.7%	12.0%	10.7%	5.3%	4.31	5.64	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	57	200	856	194	103	46	79%	2.8	22.7%	12.0%	10.7%	5.3%	4.31	5.64	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Izack Tiger (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	25.0%	13.3%	3.0%	—	4.69	24.9%	12.1%	210	-0.04	—	—	—
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	79
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	79
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	77
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	76
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	75
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	74
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	74
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.83	22.0%	10.4%	160	+0.06	3.75	326	74
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	73
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	73
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	73
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	73
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	72
Spencer Howard R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	25	SP	3.76	24.5%	11.3%	2.4%	.311	4.85	23.7%	14.8%	208	+1.09	2.33	484	72
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	23.8%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.24	20.6%	8.1%	122	+0.44	3.30	332	71
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	70
Patrick Weigel R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	25	SP-	5.00	18.7%	12.9%	3.4%	.197	4.88	20.0%	4.0%	105	-0.12	2.64	564	69
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	69
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	69
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	66	24.7%	12.9%	1.23	4.74
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84