Izack Tiger P Hub City Spartanburgers
Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
K%25.0%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%12.6%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP
K: +6.0 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+6KBB: -5.2 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-5BBCONTACT: +2.8 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+3CONTACTSTAM: +5.2 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+5STAMTotal WAR: +0.93 (73 IP)+0.9WAR
0.00.51.00.00.0-$1M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP45
STUF5560
CTRL45
CMD3045
K†6060
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M
2028Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202322ROKACL Rangers3141842033%1.322.2%11.1%11.1%0.0%2.252.63
202322ROKACL Rangers3141842033%1.322.2%11.1%11.1%0.0%2.252.60
202423MIX3 levels1312461915921492%3.522.4%14.4%8.0%3.4%2.934.90
202423MIX3 levels1312461915921492%3.530.9%11.0%19.9%2.1%2.933.03
▸ 2026 Season
202625A+Hub City Spartanburgers851465245262%1.78.56
ROS25MLBTEX10106025163318100%6.025.0%12.4%12.6%3.0%4.604.60-0.0
ROS25MLBTEX025.0%12.4%12.6%3.1%4.624.62
2026 TOT25MLBTEX7331687361027.5%11.4%16.0%3.0%5.343.74+0.9
2026 FULL25MLBTEX0100025.0%12.4%12.6%3.1%4.624.24+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202726MLBTEX12127230276369100%6.025.1%12.0%13.0%3.0%4.564.55+0.2
202827MLBTEX12127029774359100%5.924.9%11.9%13.0%3.1%4.564.57+0.2
202928MLBTEX11116828871349100%6.224.7%11.9%12.8%3.2%4.604.64+0.1
203029MLBTEX11116527567339100%5.924.4%12.0%12.4%3.3%4.704.77-0.1
203130MLBTEX10106125962329100%6.124.1%12.3%11.7%3.5%4.854.94-0.3
202726MLBTEX553113133164100%6.225.1%12.0%13.0%3.1%4.584.57-0.0
202827MLBTEX774418646226100%6.324.9%11.9%13.0%3.1%4.584.59-0.0
202928MLBTEX885121553267100%6.424.7%11.9%12.8%3.2%4.624.66-0.1
203029MLBTEX995322455278100%5.924.4%12.0%12.4%3.4%4.724.79-0.2
203130MLBTEX995322454288100%5.924.1%12.3%11.7%3.6%4.874.96-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career393923298124111832100%6.024.6%12.0%12.5%3.3%4.694.36+2.8
/ 200 IP333320084420710228100%6.024.6%12.0%12.5%3.3%4.694.36+2.4
Career2418642747135875%2.725.8%12.6%13.2%3.1%4.104.22+0.3
/ 200 IP75572008612221092775%2.725.8%12.6%13.2%3.1%4.104.22+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Izack Tiger (OGILVIE) 4.60 25.0%12.4%3.0% 4.59 24.9%13.0%210 -0.01
Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.92 FIP 26 SP- 3.92 24.5%9.5%3.1%.232 5.11 17.5%6.2%190 +1.19 3.92 233 83
Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP 25 SP- 4.42 23.3%10.7%3.5%.225 4.42 102 79
Sean Mooney R 2025 · 4.82 FIP 24 SP- 4.82 24.7%13.5%3.8%.277 3.45 102 78
Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.51 FIP 25 SP- 3.51 18.2%9.8%1.3%.285 4.69 16.5%5.1%59 +1.18 3.51 123 73
Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP 25 SP- 3.47 20.3%11.4%1.2%.286 3.51 23.2%10.9%71 +0.04 2.45 138 73
Andrew Politi R 2026 · 5.50 FIP 25 SP- 5.50 21.0%12.2%4.8%.320 4.16 23.1%13.2%138 -1.34 3.45 292 71
Spencer Howard R 2026 · 3.82 FIP 25 SP 3.82 24.5%11.3%2.5%.311 4.90 24.4%14.8%208 +1.08 2.29 484 71
Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP 24 SP- 4.80 25.7%12.4%4.2%.296 3.43 18.7%10.3%40 -1.37 2.78 181 70
Cody Morris R 2026 · 3.74 FIP 25 SP- 3.74 31.3%11.6%3.3%.256 4.66 24.1%7.0%72 +0.92 2.26 256 70
Sauryn Lao R 2026 · 3.48 FIP 25 SP- 3.48 21.7%7.3%2.4%.297 3.19 182 69
Patrick Weigel R 2026 · 5.23 FIP 25 SP- 5.23 18.7%12.9%3.8%.197 4.88 20.0%4.0%105 -0.35 2.64 544 69
Cam Sanders R 2026 · 4.83 FIP 25 SW 4.83 22.2%14.8%3.1%.232 4.59 26.3%7.9%170 -0.24 3.71 483 69
Cole Sands R 2026 · 4.60 FIP 25 SP- 4.60 21.3%8.9%4.0%.358 3.05 25.5%19.0%196 -1.55 2.28 473 68
Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.73 FIP 25 SP 4.73 23.5%17.5%2.5%.289 4.91 22.6%10.0%160 +0.18 3.93 323 68
Brandon Woodruff R 2026 · 3.75 FIP 25 SP- 3.75 22.0%9.8%2.3%.291 2.85 29.8%23.7%375 -0.90 2.61 1,247 68
Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP 24 SP- 4.80 20.8%12.2%3.5%.450 4.58 17.9%4.8%170 -0.22 3.80 187 68
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.16 FIP 25 SP- 5.16 19.7%13.2%3.7%.319 4.17 23.5%13.9%196 -0.99 4.00 512 67
Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP 25 SW 4.06 18.9%9.0%2.6%.311 4.48 17.3%3.8%141 +0.42 3.63 281 67
Pierce Johnson R 2026 · 5.30 FIP 25 SP- 5.30 22.9%15.7%3.9%.321 3.60 24.8%13.4%121 -1.70 2.83 577 67
Will Schomberg R 2025 · 3.84 FIP 24 SP- 3.84 23.3%11.6%2.2%.272 3.84 206 66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION66624.7%12.1%1.234.64
Lucas Sims ('24)64727.6%11.6%1.244.22
Amir Garrett ('23)65125.8%13.4%1.505.10
Fernando Rodney ('19)55924.6%11.8%0.884.21
José Ruiz ('24)55222.2%10.4%1.414.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)65726.2%9.9%1.394.33
Miguel Castro ('23)75920.8%12.0%1.043.99