Ben Ross
SS St. Paul Saints| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 558 | .224/.307/.356 | 12 | 23 | 53 | — | .167/.227/.276 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAMIN | 490 | .219/.313/.363 | 14 | 18 | 46 | — | .173/.245/.282 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/AAMIN | 502 | .273/.382/.500 | 20 | 20 | 93 | — | .224/.308/.395 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBMIN | 21 | .190/.190/.381 | 0 | 1 | 50 | 0.5 | |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBMIN | 46 | .209/.283/.352 | 1 | 1 | 79 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ48% MLB | 27 | MLBMIN | 139 | .210/.284/.352 | 4 | 4 | 79 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ58% MLB | 28 | MLBMIN | 173 | .210/.284/.351 | 4 | 4 | 79 | 0.2 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 89 | 74 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 257 | 375 | 446 | 821 | 189 | 302 | 21 | 15 | 364 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 36 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 226 | 314 | 226 | 540 | 280 | 19 | 11 | 253 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 457 | 400 | 96 | 25 | 2 | 19 | 45 | 116 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 240 | 326 | 455 | 781 | 215 | 284 | 25 | 10 | 341 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 458 | 410 | 87 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 136 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 212 | 287 | 341 | 628 | 129 | 285 | 30 | 9 | 282 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 100 | 82 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 280 | 398 | 427 | 825 | 146 | 344 | 19 | 15 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 490 | 424 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 55 | 111 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 219 | 313 | 363 | 676 | 144 | 257 | 23 | 11 | 303 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | — | 21 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 190 | 381 | 571 | 190 | 400 | 52 | 0 | 242 | 50 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +0 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 430 | 363 | 90 | 23 | 3 | 15 | 58 | 116 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 248 | 358 | 452 | 809 | 204 | 318 | 27 | 13 | 357 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 72 | 59 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 424 | 528 | 797 | 1.324 | 373 | 455 | 14 | 17 | 559 | 197 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 21 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 190 | 381 | 571 | 190 | 400 | 52 | 0 | 242 | 50 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +0 | 0.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 89 | 78 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 205 | 295 | 333 | 629 | 128 | 266 | 29 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 36 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 219 | 286 | 219 | 504 | 266 | 22 | 8 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 457 | 412 | 74 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 151 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 180 | 251 | 325 | 576 | 146 | 234 | 33 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 458 | 420 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 30 | 172 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 167 | 227 | 276 | 504 | 110 | 243 | 38 | 7 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 490 | 440 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 144 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 173 | 245 | 282 | 527 | 109 | 215 | 29 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Minnesota Twins | — | 21 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 190 | 381 | 571 | 190 | 400 | 52 | 0 | 242 | 50 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +0 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 430 | 380 | 77 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 139 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 203 | 287 | 355 | 642 | 153 | 276 | 32 | 10 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 72 | 63 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 349 | 431 | 635 | 1.065 | 286 | 396 | 17 | 11 | 459 | 197 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 89 | 78 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 205 | 295 | 333 | 629 | 128 | 275 | 29 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 89 | 74 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 257 | 375 | 446 | 821 | 189 | 302 | 21 | 15 | 364 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 444 | 81 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 36 | 159 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 182 | 253 | 318 | 571 | 135 | 244 | 32 | 7 | 250 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 493 | 431 | 103 | 25 | 2 | 19 | 49 | 123 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 239 | 325 | 439 | 764 | 200 | 284 | 25 | 10 | 335 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 558 | 511 | 86 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 36 | 210 | 4 | 23 | 7 | 168 | 229 | 278 | 507 | 110 | 251 | 38 | 6 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 558 | 492 | 110 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 55 | 155 | 4 | 23 | 7 | 224 | 307 | 356 | 662 | 132 | 296 | 28 | 10 | 297 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 490 | 440 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 144 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 173 | 245 | 282 | 527 | 109 | 222 | 29 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 490 | 424 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 55 | 111 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 219 | 313 | 363 | 676 | 144 | 257 | 23 | 11 | 303 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 523 | 463 | 104 | 27 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 162 | 5 | 21 | 8 | 225 | 307 | 397 | 704 | 173 | 307 | 31 | 10 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 523 | 443 | 119 | 32 | 4 | 20 | 70 | 137 | 5 | 21 | 8 | 269 | 375 | 494 | 869 | 226 | 341 | 26 | 13 | 380 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 89 | 79 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 203 | 295 | 329 | 625 | 127 | 266 | 29 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 448 | 81 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 36 | 159 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 181 | 253 | 315 | 568 | 134 | 236 | 32 | 7 | 250 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 558 | 513 | 86 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 36 | 210 | 4 | 23 | 7 | 168 | 229 | 277 | 505 | 109 | 243 | 38 | 6 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 490 | 445 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 144 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 171 | 245 | 279 | 523 | 108 | 215 | 29 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 523 | 463 | 104 | 27 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 162 | 5 | 21 | 8 | 225 | 307 | 397 | 704 | 173 | 297 | 31 | 10 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 558 | 513 | 86 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 36 | 210 | 4 | 23 | 7 | 168 | 229 | 277 | 505 | 109 | 243 | 38 | 6 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 490 | 445 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 144 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 171 | 245 | 279 | 523 | 108 | 215 | 29 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 523 | 463 | 104 | 27 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 162 | 5 | 21 | 8 | 225 | 307 | 397 | 704 | 173 | 297 | 31 | 10 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIN | 30% | 380 | 341 | 72 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 119 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 208 | 283 | 351 | 634 | 143 | 285 | 31 | 9 | 284 | 79 | -10 | +1 | +2 | +4 | +8 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIN | 30% | 46 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 283 | 352 | 635 | 143 | 285 | 30 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 48% | 290 | 261 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 90 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 209 | 284 | 351 | 635 | 142 | 285 | 31 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -7 | +0 | +1 | +3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 58% | 300 | 269 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 93 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 210 | 284 | 350 | 634 | 140 | 285 | 31 | 9 | 284 | 79 | -8 | +0 | +1 | +3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 60% | 294 | 265 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 90 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 209 | 283 | 347 | 630 | 138 | 284 | 31 | 9 | 283 | 78 | -8 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIN | 62% | 289 | 261 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 208 | 281 | 343 | 624 | 135 | 283 | 30 | 8 | 281 | 76 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 48% | 139 | 125 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 210 | 284 | 352 | 636 | 143 | 285 | 31 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -3 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 58% | 173 | 155 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 53 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 210 | 284 | 351 | 635 | 141 | 285 | 31 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 60% | 177 | 159 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 54 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 209 | 283 | 348 | 631 | 138 | 284 | 31 | 8 | 283 | 78 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIN | 62% | 179 | 161 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 55 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 282 | 344 | 625 | 135 | 283 | 31 | 8 | 281 | 76 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 689 | 621 | 129 | 29 | 5 | 16 | 57 | 216 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 208 | 279 | 348 | 626 | 140 | 288 | 31 | 8 | 282 | 66 | -19 | +1 | +1 | +13 | +15 | 1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 586 | 122 | 27 | 5 | 15 | 54 | 204 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 208 | 280 | 348 | 628 | 140 | 288 | 31 | 8 | 282 | 66 | -18 | +1 | +1 | +12 | +14 | 1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3481 | 3132 | 611 | 133 | 13 | 86 | 283 | 1111 | 28 | 108 | 35 | 195 | 268 | 328 | 596 | 133 | 267 | 32 | 8 | 265 | 66 | -36 | +2 | +2 | +20 | +29 | 1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 114 | 25 | 2 | 16 | 53 | 207 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 195 | 267 | 326 | 594 | 132 | 266 | 32 | 8 | 265 | 66 | -17 | +1 | +1 | +10 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 430 PAwOBA .351 → .281 (−70)K% 27.0% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.98% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 18.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 7.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.39% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .351 → .281; ISO .204 → .156; BABIP .318 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 72 PAwOBA .544 → .459 (−85)K% 13.9% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.89% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 11.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 24.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 11.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 8.15% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .544 → .459; ISO .373 → .312; BABIP .455 → .396. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 490 PAwOBA .300 → .236 (−64)K% 22.7% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.65% | ÷0.941 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.22% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.49% | ÷1.025 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 16.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.47% | ÷0.986 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.67% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .300 → .236; ISO .144 → .113; BABIP .257 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 458 PAwOBA .277 → .222 (−55)K% 29.7% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.69% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.73% | ÷0.963 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.66% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.80% | ÷1.091 | ×0.920 | ×0.983 | ×1.027 | 17.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.57% | ÷0.979 | ×0.840 | ×0.983 | ×1.027 | 5.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷1.126 | ×0.940 | ×0.983 | ×1.027 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.01% | ÷0.845 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.90% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 118, 2B 96, 3B 125, K 93, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .277 → .222; ISO .129 → .111; BABIP .285 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 457 PAwOBA .336 → .252 (−85)K% 25.4% → 33.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.38% | ÷0.977 | ×1.270 | — | — | 33.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.85% | ÷0.966 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.61% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 15.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.80% | ÷1.051 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 6.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷0.994 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.69% | ÷1.134 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.78% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 99, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .336 → .252; ISO .215 → .147; BABIP .284 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 36 PAwOBA .255 → .231 (−24)K% 19.4% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.44% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.962 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 8.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 27.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.931 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.231 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .255 → .231; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .280 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 89 PAwOBA .359 → .285 (−74)K% 21.3% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.35% | ÷0.991 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.61% | ÷1.026 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.951 | ×1.015 | 17.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.916 | ×0.830 | ×0.951 | ×1.015 | 7.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.951 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 4.43% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 98, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .359 → .285; ISO .189 → .153; BABIP .302 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .