José Barrero

SS Norfolk Tides

Age 29 R/R 6'4" / 211 lbs AAA HR +9% Svc 1.066 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	26	AAA/INTL2 orgs	341	.205/.298/.364	9	16	68	—	.166/.242/.296
2025	27	AAABAL	319	.223/.307/.397	12	14	48	—	.175/.237/.291
2025	27	MLBSTL	31	.138/.194/.276	1	0	33	0.1
2026	28	AAA/INTL2 orgs	522	.198/.305/.392	23	15	45	—	.156/.236/.292
2027PROJ45% MLB	29	MLBBAL	107	.203/.273/.347	3	3	71	-0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	30	MLBBAL	130	.200/.270/.340	4	3	68	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.066First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.2M2030Ext$0.4M2031Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2025

Bat Spd71

Speed36

Avg EV24

Barrel%10

xwOBA10

CompsJake Hager (age 29) · Camden Duzenack (age 28) · Jim Haley (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .273 / .347

PA107

HR3

K%32

BB%7

BABIP270

ISO134

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2025

CONTACT35

xAVG

100.172

POWER55

Barrel%

102.9

Avg EV

2487.2

Bat Spd

7173.6

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

3626.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2020

Service 1.066 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	20	A	Dayton Dragons	—	517	482	118	22	4	6	19	112	12	13	9	245	290	344	635	100	307	22	4	285	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	452	404	113	37	1	8	25	83	17	15	2	280	348	436	783	156	329	18	6	346	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	69	61	13	3	0	1	5	12	2	3	1	213	294	311	606	98	245	17	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	68	67	13	0	0	0	1	26	0	1	1	194	206	194	400		317	38	1	183	9	-7	-0	+1	+1	+1	-0.5
2021	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	56	50	10	4	1	0	3	17	3	1	0	200	286	320	606	120	303	30	5	278	74	-2	+0	+1	+5	+1	0.6
2021	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	200	170	52	10	0	13	20	44	6	8	3	306	398	594	992	288	336	22	10	423	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	180	160	48	9	1	6	16	40	2	8	1	300	371	481	852	181	362	22	9	374	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	174	165	25	3	0	2	9	76	0	4	1	152	195	206	401	55	264	44	5	186	10	-19	+0	-0	+5	+4	-0.9
2022	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	237	220	46	8	1	9	11	89	5	5	2	209	263	377	640	168	301	38	5	284	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	86	73	18	1	0	1	10	16	2	5	0	247	353	301	654	55	298	19	12	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	149	133	29	8	0	2	15	44	0	3	2	218	297	323	621	105	307	30	10	283	75	-4	-0	-4	+6	+3	0.1
2023	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	335	291	75	17	4	19	22	105	14	20	1	258	338	540	878	282	324	31	7	374	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	94	77	17	4	0	1	10	20	3	8	1	221	333	312	645	91	271	21	11	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	188	165	31	6	1	6	13	63	8	10	1	188	280	345	625	158	255	34	7	282	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	153	132	30	10	1	3	16	29	2	6	0	227	320	386	706	159	262	19	10	312	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	31	29	4	1	0	1	1	9	1	0	0	138	194	276	469	138	158	29	3	213	33	-2	+0	-1	+4	+1	0.1
2025	27	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	319	282	63	11	1	12	29	95	5	14	4	223	307	397	704	174	287	30	9	313	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	499	430	87	14	1	23	53	140	12	13	9	202	307	400	707	198	236	28	11	316	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	23	19	2	2	0	0	3	6	1	2	0	105	261	211	471	105	154	26	13	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	478	444	81	16	1	5	29	172	4	9	4	182	239	257	496	74	284	36	6	228	41	-34	+0	-3	+21	+10	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	20	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	517	489	102	19	4	4	12	154	12	13	9	209	246	288	534	80	288	30	2	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	452	411	96	31	1	6	18	120	17	15	2	234	294	358	651	124	300	27	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	68	67	13	0	0	0	1	26	0	1	1	194	206	194	400		317	38	1	182	9	-7	-0	+1	+1	+1	-0.5
2021	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	56	50	10	4	1	0	3	17	3	1	0	200	286	320	606	120	303	30	5	278	74	-2	+0	+1	+5	+1	0.6
2021	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	200	177	45	9	0	9	13	56	6	8	3	254	327	458	784	203	298	28	6	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	180	164	43	7	1	5	12	47	2	8	1	262	320	409	729	146	329	26	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	174	165	25	3	0	2	9	76	0	4	1	152	195	206	401	55	264	44	5	183	10	-19	+0	-0	+5	+4	-0.9
2022	24	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	237	223	33	6	1	4	8	112	5	5	2	148	195	238	433	90	268	47	3	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	149	133	29	8	0	2	15	44	0	3	2	218	297	323	621	105	307	30	10	279	75	-4	-0	-4	+6	+3	0.1
2023	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	335	298	62	14	4	13	16	126	14	20	1	208	280	413	693	205	283	38	5	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	188	169	28	5	1	5	9	71	8	10	1	166	242	296	538	130	234	38	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	31	29	4	1	0	1	1	9	1	0	0	138	194	276	469	138	158	29	3	217	33	-2	+0	-1	+4	+1	0.1
2025	27	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	319	292	51	8	1	8	19	118	5	14	4	175	237	291	528	116	254	37	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	499	448	70	11	1	16	35	168	12	13	9	156	236	292	529	136	197	34	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	517	489	102	19	4	4	12	154	12	13	9	209	246	288	534	80	295	30	2	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	517	482	118	22	4	6	19	112	12	13	9	245	290	344	635	100	307	22	4	285	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	521	474	111	36	1	7	21	138	19	18	3	234	294	359	652	124	310	26	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	521	465	126	40	1	9	30	95	19	18	3	271	340	419	760	148	318	18	6	337	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	68	67	13	0	0	0	1	26	0	1	1	194	206	194	400		317	38	1	182	9	-7	-0	+1	+1	+1	-0.5
2020	22	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	68	67	13	0	0	0	1	26	0	1	1	194	206	194	400		317	38	1	183	9	-7	-0	+1	+1	+1	-0.5
2021	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	436	391	98	20	2	14	28	120	11	17	4	251	319	419	738	169	321	28	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	436	380	110	23	2	19	39	101	11	17	4	289	372	511	883	221	343	23	9	384	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	497	468	71	11	1	8	20	227	7	14	3	152	198	231	429	79	268	46	4	191	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	497	458	89	12	1	12	30	181	7	14	3	194	255	303	558	109	288	36	6	253	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	578	512	108	27	4	17	37	203	17	31	4	211	286	379	665	168	301	35	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	578	501	121	29	4	22	47	169	17	31	4	242	327	447	774	206	309	29	8	336	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	341	310	50	9	2	8	16	128	10	16	1	161	226	281	507	119	235	38	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	341	297	61	16	2	9	29	92	10	16	1	205	298	364	661	158	259	27	9	296	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	350	321	56	9	1	10	20	127	6	14	4	174	236	302	538	128	246	36	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	350	311	67	12	1	13	30	104	6	14	4	215	297	386	683	170	274	30	9	304	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	522	468	72	11	1	16	37	176	13	15	9	154	236	284	520	130	200	34	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	522	449	89	16	1	23	56	146	13	15	9	198	305	392	697	194	232	28	11	312	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	517	488	102	19	4	4	12	154	12	13	9	209	246	289	535	80	288	30	2	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	521	476	111	36	1	7	21	138	19	18	3	233	294	357	651	124	300	26	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	68	67	13	0	0	0	1	26	0	1	1	194	206	194	400		317	38	1	182	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	436	394	98	20	2	14	28	120	11	17	4	249	319	416	735	168	311	28	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	497	467	71	11	1	8	20	227	7	14	3	152	198	231	429	79	266	46	4	191	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	578	519	108	27	4	17	37	203	17	31	4	208	286	374	660	166	290	35	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	341	312	50	9	2	8	16	128	10	16	1	160	226	279	505	119	234	38	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	350	321	56	9	1	10	20	127	6	14	4	174	236	302	538	128	245	36	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	522	467	72	11	1	16	37	176	13	15	9	154	236	285	520	131	197	34	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	341	312	50	9	2	8	16	128	10	16	1	160	226	279	505	119	234	38	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	350	321	56	9	1	10	20	127	6	14	4	174	236	302	538	128	245	36	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	522	467	72	11	1	16	37	176	13	15	9	154	236	285	520	131	197	34	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BAL	45%	380	344	68	12	1	11	26	119	7	10	4	199	270	339	608	139	265	31	7	274	71	-13	+0	-2	+4	+8	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	BAL	45%	107	97	19	4	0	3	7	34	2	3	1	203	273	347	621	145	270	32	7	278	71	-4	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	BAL	48%	272	247	49	9	1	8	18	86	5	6	3	196	266	331	598	135	264	32	7	269	68	-10	+0	-3	+3	+6	-0.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	BAL	48%	130	118	23	4	0	4	9	41	2	3	1	200	270	340	610	140	268	32	7	274	68	-5	+0	-2	+1	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	608	562	104	20	1	9	38	213	6	12	5	185	244	272	516	87	278	35	6	238	58	-39	+0	-4	+22	+13	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	111	21	1	10	41	228	6	13	5	185	244	273	517	88	277	35	6	238	58	-41	+0	-4	+24	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4340	3962	774	159	18	99	226	1460	105	151	44	195	257	320	577	124	276	34	5	254	58	-52	+0	-7	+26	+21	-1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	117	24	3	15	34	219	16	23	7	197	260	324	583	126	279	34	5	254	58	-34	+0	-4	+17	+14	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 499 PAwOBA .308 → .234 (−74)K% 28.1% → 33.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.06%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	33.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.22%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.00%
HBP% /PA	2.40%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.24%
Singles /BIP	16.90%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	14.81%
Doubles /BIP	4.83%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	3.78%
Triples /BIP	0.34%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.992	0.32%
Home runs /BIP	7.93%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.992	5.51%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .308 → .234; ISO .198 → .139; BABIP .236 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 319 PAwOBA .308 → .239 (−68)K% 29.8% → 37.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.78%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	36.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.063	×0.690	—	×1.003	5.92%
HBP% /PA	1.57%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.48%
Singles /BIP	20.86%	÷0.959	×0.930	×0.952	×1.003	19.31%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.978	×0.830	×0.952	×1.003	4.77%
Triples /BIP	0.53%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.952	×1.003	0.55%
Home runs /BIP	6.42%	÷0.945	×0.700	—	×1.003	4.77%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .308 → .239; ISO .174 → .127; BABIP .287 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 188 PAwOBA .278 → .233 (−44)K% 33.5% → 37.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.51%	÷1.069	×1.200	—	—	37.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.91%	÷1.040	×0.690	—	×1.018	4.67%
HBP% /PA	4.26%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	4.07%
Singles /BIP	17.65%	÷0.989	×0.930	×1.002	×1.018	16.93%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.987	×0.830	×1.002	×1.018	5.05%
Triples /BIP	0.98%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.002	×1.018	0.84%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷0.928	×0.700	—	×1.018	4.52%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 114, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .278 → .233; ISO .158 → .124; BABIP .255 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 335 PAwOBA .370 → .294 (−75)K% 31.3% → 37.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.34%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	37.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.57%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×1.033	4.71%
HBP% /PA	4.18%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	4.06%
Singles /BIP	18.82%	÷0.998	×0.930	×0.954	×1.033	17.29%
Doubles /BIP	9.14%	÷0.938	×0.830	×0.954	×1.033	7.97%
Triples /BIP	2.15%	÷1.042	×0.970	×0.954	×1.033	1.97%
Home runs /BIP	10.22%	÷1.054	×0.700	—	×1.033	7.01%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .370 → .294; ISO .282 → .204; BABIP .324 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 237 PAwOBA .277 → .197 (−81)K% 37.6% → 47.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.55%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	47.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.64%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×1.048	3.28%
HBP% /PA	2.11%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	2.08%
Singles /BIP	21.37%	÷0.996	×0.930	×0.950	×1.048	19.88%
Doubles /BIP	6.11%	÷0.955	×0.830	×0.950	×1.048	5.29%
Triples /BIP	0.76%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×1.048	0.82%
Home runs /BIP	6.87%	÷1.282	×0.700	—	×1.048	3.93%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .277 → .197; ISO .168 → .096; BABIP .301 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALouisville Bats · 200 PAwOBA .416 → .333 (−83)K% 22.0% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.00%	÷0.949	×1.200	—	—	27.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.50%	÷1.099	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.26%
HBP% /PA	3.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	2.96%
Singles /BIP	23.02%	÷0.994	×0.930	×0.950	×1.050	21.48%
Doubles /BIP	7.94%	÷0.945	×0.830	×0.950	×1.050	6.95%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	×0.950	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.32%	÷1.088	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.97%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 90, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .416 → .333; ISO .288 → .206; BABIP .336 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 180 PAwOBA .368 → .317 (−50)K% 22.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.040	×1.220	—	—	26.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.89%	÷0.936	×0.690	—	×1.027	6.73%
HBP% /PA	1.11%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.97%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷1.011	×0.940	×1.002	×1.027	25.50%
Doubles /BIP	7.50%	÷1.183	×0.870	×1.002	×1.027	5.68%
Triples /BIP	0.83%	÷0.912	×0.920	×1.002	×1.027	0.87%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷0.950	×0.780	—	×1.027	4.22%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 102, 2B 137, 3B 82, K 108, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .368 → .317; ISO .181 → .150; BABIP .362 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Daytona Tortugas · 452 PAwOBA .340 → .285 (−55)K% 18.4% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.36%	÷0.985	×1.420	—	—	26.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.31%	÷1.016	×0.750	—	×1.027	4.03%
HBP% /PA	3.76%	—	×0.930	—	×1.027	3.59%
Singles /BIP	20.87%	÷0.965	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	19.41%
Doubles /BIP	11.53%	÷1.042	×0.960	×0.950	×1.027	10.36%
Triples /BIP	0.31%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×1.027	0.21%
Home runs /BIP	2.49%	÷1.101	×0.880	—	×1.027	2.05%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 93, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .340 → .285; ISO .156 → .125; BABIP .329 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#2Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Hector Torres'68-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	18	7	215*	262*	312*	+16	+3	-2.1	-0.9
/162	664	6	2	+5.7	+1.2	-0.7	pk7: 0
#4Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.0	684	11	14	191	250	285	+7	-1	-1.4	-1.4
/162	664	10	14	+7.1	-0.6	-1.4	pk7: -1
#5Jim Mason'71-'79 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	12	2	204*	262*	306*	+18	-14	-4.1	-2.9
/162	664	5	1	+6.7	-5.3	-1.6	pk7: -2
#6Jackie Hernandez'65-'73 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,609 PA	2.4	1,609	12	25	212*	258*	298*	+16	-16	-5.1	-3.5
/162	664	5	10	+6.6	-6.8	-2.1	pk7: -2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
José Barrero (OGILVIE)	29	35	55	55	45	197/268/336	138	265	7	6	31%	7%	71	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jake Hager 2022 · MLB	29	37→47	48→50	52→50	41	197/253/336	140	261	16	10	31%	7%	65	-1.2	206/263/316	110	279	9	9	28%	7%	63	-1.3	198/253/291	94	274	6	7	28%	6%	52	-0.9
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	41→36	48→50	51→50	37	212/251/355	143	272	16	13	29%	4%	68	-1.0	228/285/350	122	286	12	10	24%	6%	80	-0.2	232/297/331	98	288	9	6	21%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Jim Haley 2024 · AAA	29	39→43	46→50	57→55	38	200/256/327	127	276	14	20	32%	6%	63	-1.3	214/270/329	115	293	11	20	30%	6%	69	-0.9	203/257/305	102	281	10	25	30%	5%	55	-1.2
✕Kevin Padlo 2024 · MLB	28	40→42	47→55	49→50	46	204/276/339	135	275	15	12	31%	9%	74	-0.6	196/275/323	127	279	14	14	32%	9%	70	-0.8	141/233/249	109	200	13	15	35%	10%	38	-1.6
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	43→42	46→50	49→50	42	216/272/344	128	288	14	11	30%	6%	74	-0.6	203/269/353	150	324	19	14	41%	7%	75	-0.5	141/210/279	138	225	21	18	47%	7%	34	-1.3
✕Kevin Smith 2024 · MLB	28	41→45	51→55	53→50	38	217/263/375	158	290	20	14	32%	6%	78	-0.3	214/261/332	118	324	13	17	36%	5%	66	-1.1	187/232/249	62	318	4	23	40%	4%	35	-1.5
✕Seth Bynum 2011 · AAA	30	40→43	50	50	38	210/253/358	149	282	18	11	32%	6%	70	-0.9	201/250/325	124	284	14	11	33%	6%	61	-1.5	186/236/297	111	264	13	8	34%	5%	46	-1.6
✕Zack Short 2024 · MLB	29	37→39	46→50	48→45	51	192/284/322	130	260	15	10	30%	11%	74	-0.5	184/277/294	110	254	11	9	30%	11%	65	-1.2	162/262/256	94	224	9	7	30%	11%	50	-1.3
✕Luis Aviles Jr. 2023 · AAA	28	40→43	48→50	54→55	35	209/245/356	148	279	16	16	31%	4%	66	-1.1	207/254/335	128	282	14	21	31%	5%	64	-1.3	186/236/300	114	250	13	29	30%	5%	47	-1.7
✕Brian Serven 2024 · MLB	29	36	46→50	47→30	40	192/246/313	121	248	15	4	29%	6%	57	-1.8	209/280/315	106	300	11	4	32%	8%	70	-0.8	212/290/326	114	302	11	1	31%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Brandon Hicks 2015 · MLB	29	36→41	49→50	46→50	41	187/263/335	148	279	18	7	38%	8%	69	-0.9	186/256/299	113	306	13	8	40%	8%	57	-1.8	160/228/243	83	282	9	8	44%	7%	32	-1.4
✕Weston Wilson 2024 · MLB	29	39→42	50→55	55	44	207/276/355	148	279	19	24	32%	8%	78	-0.3	213/286/366	153	280	19	21	30%	9%	84	+0.1	207/282/354	147	267	19	21	29%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Jason Smith 2007 · MLB	30	44→33	48→55	53→50	39	224/268/373	149	293	16	14	29%	5%	78	-0.3	201/237/345	144	284	17	8	35%	4%	60	-1.6	173/202/300	127	246	16	7	37%	3%	35	-1.9
✕Trent Giambrone 2021 · AAA	27	39→41	51→50	51→55	41	206/263/360	154	270	19	19	31%	6%	74	-0.5	178/242/264	86	259	8	14	32%	7%	44	-2.8	146/215/204	58	216	4	14	32%	7%	18	-2.2
✕Taylor Featherston 2019 · MLB	29	37→46	44→50	54→50	37	188/246/302	114	279	12	12	36%	6%	54	-2.0	185/240/309	124	323	14	9	45%	5%	53	-2.1	155/206/277	121	285	16	5	49%	4%	31	-2.8
✕Kyle Datres 2024 · AAA	28	43	47→50	57→55	45	216/296/351	134	292	16	24	30%	8%	84	+0.2	204/280/322	118	289	13	17	32%	8%	72	-0.7	173/254/274	102	244	13	16	33%	9%	50	-0.8
✕Michael Helman 2024 · AAA	28	43→42	49→50	58→55	45	221/279/369	148	262	17	25	23%	7%	82	-0.0	211/269/356	145	259	16	19	25%	6%	75	-0.5	193/252/335	142	235	16	18	25%	6%	62	-0.8
✕Justin Leone 2006 · MLB	29	43→39	46→50	48→55	46	212/288/340	128	295	13	8	31%	9%	78	-0.3	208/284/349	141	269	16	13	28%	9%	80	-0.2	197/279/342	145	247	18	16	27%	9%	74	-0.4
✕Rylan Bannon 2024 · MLB	28	40→47	49→50	47→50	50	208/293/355	147	263	18	14	28%	10%	84	+0.2	205/299/343	138	278	15	12	29%	11%	84	+0.1	174/284/300	125	238	14	10	30%	12%	68	-0.9
✕Brooks Conrad 2010 · MLB	30	38→43	49→55	52→50	42	202/259/351	149	260	17	10	30%	6%	70	-0.8	226/291/405	179	295	22	11	30%	8%	95	+0.9	221/291/435	214	282	28	7	32%	9%	103	+0.5

José Barrero

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps