Isaac Lyon

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.8 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	AModesto Nuts	4	4	12	7.30	5.61	27.3%	5.5%	—	K 20.2% · BB 6.4% · FIP 9.05
2026	22	MIX4 levels	28	22	120	3.01	2.90	22.6%	7.2%	—	K 18.6% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.40
2027PROJ	23	MLBWSH	15	15	78	4.25	4.25	19.4%	7.9%	0.6
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBWSH	9	9	48	4.18	4.14	20.4%	7.7%	0.4
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBWSH	13	13	75	4.12	4.08	21.0%	7.5%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Arb-2$4M2034Arb-3$5M

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 76%

CompsZack Lee (age 23) · Nick Dean (age 23) · Pat Gallagher (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%19.4%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	4	4	12	55	15	3	4	100%	3.1	20.2%	6.4%	13.7%	12.5%	7.30	9.05	—
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	4	4	12	55	15	3	4	100%	3.1	20.2%	6.4%	13.7%	12.5%	7.30	9.05	—
2025	21	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	4	4	12	55	15	3	4	100%	3.1	27.3%	5.5%	21.8%	7.3%	7.30	5.61	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	22	120	486	110	35	7	79%	4.3	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	1.6%	3.01	3.40	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	22	120	486	110	35	7	79%	4.3	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	1.6%	3.01	3.40	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	22	120	486	110	35	7	79%	4.3	22.6%	7.2%	15.4%	1.4%	3.01	2.90	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	WSH	15	15	78	329	64	26	8	100%	5.2	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	2.6%	4.25	4.25	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	110	466	95	36	12	100%	5.5	20.4%	7.7%	12.8%	2.6%	4.18	4.14	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	112	472	99	36	12	100%	5.9	21.0%	7.5%	13.5%	2.6%	4.12	4.08	+1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	112	472	100	35	12	100%	5.9	21.2%	7.5%	13.8%	2.6%	4.09	4.07	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	110	465	99	35	12	100%	6.1	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	2.7%	4.10	4.11	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	107	451	95	35	12	100%	5.9	21.1%	7.7%	13.4%	2.8%	4.16	4.20	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	102	431	90	34	13	100%	6.0	20.9%	8.0%	13.0%	2.9%	4.26	4.33	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	96	405	83	33	13	100%	6.0	20.5%	8.2%	12.3%	3.1%	4.41	4.50	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	89	377	76	32	13	100%	6.0	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	3.3%	4.59	4.70	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	83	349	69	31	13	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.0%	10.7%	3.6%	4.79	4.93	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	48	203	41	16	5	100%	5.3	20.4%	7.7%	12.8%	2.6%	4.18	4.14	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	75	317	66	24	8	100%	5.8	21.0%	7.5%	13.5%	2.6%	4.12	4.08	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	89	376	80	28	10	100%	5.9	21.2%	7.5%	13.8%	2.6%	4.09	4.07	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	94	397	84	30	11	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	2.7%	4.10	4.11	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	95	401	85	31	11	100%	5.9	21.1%	7.7%	13.4%	2.8%	4.16	4.20	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	93	393	82	31	11	100%	5.8	20.9%	8.0%	13.0%	2.9%	4.26	4.33	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	88	372	76	31	12	100%	5.9	20.5%	8.2%	12.3%	3.1%	4.41	4.50	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	83	350	71	30	12	100%	5.9	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	3.3%	4.59	4.70	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	77	325	64	29	12	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.0%	10.7%	3.6%	4.79	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	125	743	3138	651	250	92	100%	5.9	20.7%	8.0%	12.8%	2.9%	4.30	3.96	+8.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	175	67	25	100%	6.0	20.7%	8.0%	12.8%	2.9%	4.30	3.96	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		32	26	132	541	101	42	15	81%	4.1	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	2.7%	3.41	3.97	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	39	200	820	154	63	22	81%	4.1	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	2.7%	3.41	3.97	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Isaac Lyon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	19.4%	7.9%	2.6%	—	4.10	20.9%	13.3%	334	-0.15	—	—	—
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	94
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	92
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	90
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	88
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	88
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	88
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	88
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	87
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	87
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	87
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	87
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	86
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	86
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.49	15.0%	7.2%	236	+1.29	3.05	420	85
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	85
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	85
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	85
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	9.1%	183	+0.79	3.38	269	85
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	100	20.6%	7.9%	1.10	4.28
Bud Daley ('55-'64, 6 WAR*)	4.8	121	19.5%*	7.6%*	1.12*	4.38*
Chris Capuano ('16)	7.1	119	19.5%	7.5%	1.23	4.38
Mickey Harris ('40-'52, 8 WAR*)	5.2	117	23.2%*	8.1%*	1.19*	4.34*
Jim Bouton ('62-'78, 8 WAR*)	6.2	124	17.7%*	8.2%*	1.17*	4.30*
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Jimmy Nelson ('21)	3.3	110	21.8%	8.9%	0.94	4.12