Cam Leiter P Ontario Tower Buzzers
Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 234 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%25.5%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%13.5%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP
K: +11.1 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+11KBB: -8.7 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-9BBCONTACT: +1.4 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+1CONTACTSTAM: +9.4 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+9STAMTotal WAR: +1.40 (88 IP)+1.4WAR
0.10.12627
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP—45
STUF4055
CTRL—40
CMD3040
K†6060
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
202622AOntario Tower Buzzers15153615454190100%2.425.9%14.6%11.4%0.0%3.532.75+0.7
ROS22MLBLAD10105222257277100%5.225.5%12.0%13.5%3.0%4.474.47+0.0
ROS22MLBLAD——0——————25.5%12.0%13.5%2.9%4.434.43—
2026 TOT22MLBLAD——88376111467——29.4%12.1%17.3%1.7%4.093.78+1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202723MLBLAD10105423060267100%5.526.0%11.1%14.9%2.9%4.354.29+0.2
202824MLBLAD10105623662257100%5.626.4%10.6%15.8%2.9%4.254.18+0.2
202925MLBLAD10105723964257100%5.726.6%10.3%16.3%2.9%4.174.12+0.3
203026MLBLAD995723964247100%6.326.8%10.2%16.5%2.9%4.134.10+0.3
203127MLBLAD995623663247100%6.226.7%10.3%16.5%2.9%4.134.14+0.3
202723MLBLAD552711430133100%5.426.0%11.1%14.9%2.8%4.314.25+0.1
202824MLBLAD773916543175100%5.626.4%10.6%15.8%2.8%4.214.14+0.2
202925MLBLAD884619452205100%5.826.6%10.3%16.3%2.8%4.134.08+0.3
203026MLBLAD884920755216100%6.126.8%10.2%16.5%2.8%4.094.06+0.3
203127MLBLAD885021156226100%6.226.7%10.3%16.5%2.9%4.094.10+0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—36362128932379325100%5.926.6%10.4%16.1%2.8%4.143.73+4.1
/ 200 IP—34342008442248824100%5.826.6%10.4%16.1%2.8%4.143.73+3.9
Career—15153615440220100%2.425.9%14.6%11.4%0.0%3.532.75+0.7
/ 200 IP—84842008642241260100%2.425.9%14.6%11.4%0.0%3.532.75+6.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Cam Leiter (OGILVIE) —— 4.47 25.5%12.0%3.0%— 4.20 26.4%15.7%167 -0.27 ———
Michael Grove R 2026 · 4.46 FIP 22 SP 4.46 24.3%9.5%4.0%.409 5.62 21.8%11.5%176 +1.16 3.54 377 80
River Ryan R 2027 · 3.58 FIP 23 SP 3.58 26.1%12.2%2.1%.321 3.86 20.4%9.1%134 +0.28 2.13 218 80
Nate Dohm R 2026 · 4.86 FIP 22 SP 4.86 21.1%11.5%3.8%.309 4.59 17.7%2.6%40 -0.27 4.59 115 79
Drew Rasmussen R 2028 · 3.62 FIP 24 SP- 3.62 24.6%12.6%1.8%.312 3.26 22.7%16.2%237 -0.36 1.21 621 79
Levi Wells R 2026 · 4.32 FIP 22 SP 4.32 20.0%12.1%2.5%.360 3.85 19.2%9.8%132 -0.47 3.70 192 79
Caleb Sampen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP 22 SP 3.46 21.7%8.3%2.1%.358 3.46 15.2%6.8%139 +0.00 3.03 213 77
Clayton Beeter R 2026 · 4.00 FIP 22 SP 4.00 28.6%11.7%3.4%.306 4.30 27.1%12.8%245 +0.30 2.80 374 77
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2026 · 4.04 FIP 22 SP 4.04 23.1%10.8%2.8%.311 3.85 20.9%11.1%236 -0.19 3.12 482 77
Sean Mooney R 2027 · 3.45 FIP 23 SP 3.45 30.2%15.3%1.8%.250 4.82 24.7%11.2%60 +1.37 3.45 102 76
Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP 22 SP 4.07 24.5%12.3%2.7%.297 3.46 22.4%14.1%150 -0.61 3.11 420 76
Jaxon Wiggins R 2026 · 3.61 FIP 22 SP 3.61 22.5%12.8%1.4%.286 3.29 24.5%11.4%79 -0.32 3.12 132 75
Clarke Schmidt R 2026 · 3.53 FIP 22 SP 3.53 23.1%8.5%2.4%.324 3.23 21.3%13.1%108 -0.30 2.76 537 75
Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP 22 SP- 3.85 20.9%11.4%2.0%.333 3.99 21.4%12.6%184 +0.14 2.91 439 75
Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP 24 SP 3.87 23.2%10.7%2.5%.239 5.71 20.0%6.1%278 +1.84 3.87 325 74
James Proctor R 2027 · 4.02 FIP 23 SP 4.02 22.0%15.2%1.6%.277 4.35 14.0%1.5%48 +0.33 4.02 109 73
Eric Cerantola R 2026 · 4.56 FIP 22 SP 4.56 23.8%7.9%4.5%.392 4.05 24.8%9.6%198 -0.51 3.53 281 73
Dane Acker R 2027 · 5.44 FIP 23 SP 5.44 19.3%15.2%3.7%.284 4.44 20.3%8.3%215 -1.00 4.23 257 72
Jeff Criswell R 2026 · 4.20 FIP 22 SP 4.20 18.5%9.2%2.7%.242 5.37 22.2%11.1%306 +1.17 4.20 336 72
Darren Bowen R 2026 · 3.93 FIP 22 SP- 3.93 19.0%12.8%1.5%.236 5.29 15.2%4.9%205 +1.36 3.91 261 70
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP 22 SP 4.07 22.2%10.6%2.8%.292 5.42 19.5%6.0%244 +1.35 4.07 378 70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION65526.4%10.7%1.134.25
Lucas Sims ('24)64727.6%11.6%1.244.22
Hansel Robles ('22)75925.3%10.1%1.163.86
Robert Stephenson ('23)65726.2%9.9%1.394.33
Wade Davis ('21)65327.3%10.4%0.903.77
José Cisnero ('23)54224.8%11.3%0.943.84
Cam Bedrosian ('21)64524.5%10.0%0.973.68