Nelson Keljo — OGILVIE

Nelson Keljo P Hill City Howlers

Age 22 LHP 6'4" / 228 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%23.6%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	22	21	82	373	119	59	14	95%	3.7	23.9%	18.4%	5.5%	4.8%	5.25	6.07	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	22	21	82	373	119	59	14	95%	3.7	23.9%	18.4%	5.5%	4.8%	5.25	6.07	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	CLE	15	15	58	250	80	31	11	100%	3.8	32.0%	12.4%	19.6%	4.4%	4.84	4.38	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	CLE	7	6	25	123	39	28	3	86%	3.5	31.7%	22.8%	8.9%	2.4%	6.20	4.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	84	353	85	44	11	100%	5.6	24.2%	12.5%	11.7%	3.0%	4.77	4.67	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	86	362	89	41	11	100%	5.7	24.6%	11.3%	13.3%	3.0%	4.58	4.47	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	87	366	91	38	11	100%	5.8	24.8%	10.5%	14.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.34	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	87	366	91	38	11	100%	6.2	24.9%	10.4%	14.6%	3.0%	4.36	4.32	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	86	361	90	38	11	100%	6.1	24.9%	10.5%	14.5%	3.0%	4.36	4.36	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	83	350	87	37	11	100%	5.9	24.8%	10.6%	14.2%	3.1%	4.41	4.44	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	79	334	89	34	11	100%	6.1	26.6%	10.0%	16.5%	3.3%	4.34	4.30	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	74	314	82	32	11	100%	6.2	26.2%	10.3%	15.9%	3.5%	4.42	4.48	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	69	293	76	31	11	100%	5.8	25.8%	10.7%	15.1%	3.7%	4.58	4.68	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	64	271	69	30	11	100%	5.8	25.4%	11.1%	14.3%	3.9%	4.77	4.90	0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	41	173	42	22	5	100%	5.9	24.2%	12.5%	11.7%	3.0%	4.77	4.67	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	60	253	62	29	8	100%	5.5	24.6%	11.3%	13.3%	3.0%	4.58	4.47	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	70	296	73	31	9	100%	5.8	24.8%	10.5%	14.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.34	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	76	321	80	33	10	100%	5.8	24.9%	10.4%	14.6%	3.0%	4.36	4.32	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	77	325	81	34	10	100%	5.9	24.9%	10.5%	14.5%	3.0%	4.36	4.36	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	76	321	80	34	10	100%	5.8	24.8%	10.6%	14.2%	3.1%	4.41	4.44	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	74	312	83	31	10	100%	6.2	26.6%	10.0%	16.5%	3.3%	4.34	4.30	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	70	296	78	31	10	100%	5.8	26.2%	10.3%	15.9%	3.5%	4.42	4.48	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	66	279	72	30	10	100%	6.0	25.8%	10.7%	15.1%	3.7%	4.57	4.67	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	61	258	65	29	10	100%	6.1	25.4%	11.1%	14.3%	3.9%	4.76	4.89	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		114	114	671	2833	716	303	92	100%	5.9	25.3%	10.7%	14.6%	3.2%	4.48	4.09	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	213	90	27	100%	5.9	25.3%	10.7%	14.6%	3.2%	4.48	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		22	21	82	373	89	69	18	95%	3.7	23.9%	18.4%	5.5%	4.8%	5.25	6.07	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	51	200	906	217	167	44	95%	3.7	23.9%	18.4%	5.5%	4.8%	5.25	6.07	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nelson Keljo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	23.6%	14.4%	3.1%	—	4.49	24.5%	13.1%	256	-0.50	—	—	—
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	81
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	80
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	79
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	79
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	78
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	78
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.71	19.6%	9.4%	345	-0.21	3.26	448	78
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	76
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	76
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	76
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	75
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	75
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	74
Pablo Aldonis L 2023 · 4.44 FIP	21	SP	4.44	18.7%	15.6%	1.7%	.240	3.01	21.7%	12.9%	75	-1.43	1.89	135	73
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	72
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	72
Joe Miller L 2022 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	17.4%	13.9%	2.0%	.375	4.22	16.0%	7.7%	273	-0.26	3.76	355	72
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	72
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	72
Jagger Haynes L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.0%	2.1%	.303	5.02	17.7%	3.7%	343	+0.77	4.25	368	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	74	25.2%	10.9%	1.24	4.51
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81