Nolan Perry

P Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP55ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	ROKTOR	9	4	38	7.28	3.05	28.3%	8.9%	—	K 19.3% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.58
2024	20	ATOR	14	14	46	2.93	3.73	27.5%	18.8%	—	K 20.4% · BB 22.2% · FIP 4.88
2026	22	MIX3 levels	21	20	83	2.50	2.53	36.0%	9.8%	—	K 27.9% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.62
2027PROJ	23	MLBTOR	14	14	74	4.29	4.29	27.2%	11.9%	0.5
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBTOR	6	6	33	4.20	4.13	27.4%	10.8%	0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBTOR	9	9	52	4.11	4.04	27.5%	10.2%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$3M2034Arb-3$3M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff51Control50FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 75%

CompsDavid Festa (age 23) · Brody McCullough (age 23) · Sam Benschoter (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 98

ERA4.29

FIP4.29

K%27.2%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%15.3%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5550

CTRL5050

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	9	4	38	180	51	16	4	44%	4.3	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	3.1%	7.28	4.58	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	9	4	38	180	51	16	4	44%	4.3	28.3%	8.9%	19.4%	2.2%	7.28	3.05	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	14	14	46	207	57	39	2	100%	3.3	20.4%	22.2%	-1.9%	1.3%	2.93	4.88	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	14	14	46	207	57	39	2	100%	3.3	20.4%	22.2%	-1.9%	1.3%	2.93	4.88	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	14	14	46	207	57	39	2	100%	3.3	27.5%	18.8%	8.7%	1.0%	2.93	3.73	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	83	325	117	32	7	95%	3.9	27.9%	11.1%	16.8%	2.7%	2.50	3.62	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	83	325	117	32	7	95%	3.9	27.9%	11.1%	16.8%	2.7%	2.50	3.62	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	20	83	325	117	32	7	95%	3.9	36.0%	9.8%	26.2%	2.2%	2.50	2.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TOR	14	14	74	312	85	37	9	100%	5.3	27.2%	11.9%	15.3%	2.9%	4.29	4.29	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	76	322	88	35	9	100%	5.5	27.4%	10.8%	16.6%	2.9%	4.20	4.13	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	77	326	90	33	9	100%	5.9	27.5%	10.2%	17.3%	2.9%	4.11	4.04	+0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	77	326	90	33	9	100%	5.9	27.5%	10.1%	17.4%	2.9%	4.07	4.03	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	76	321	88	33	9	100%	5.9	27.4%	10.1%	17.2%	3.0%	4.08	4.07	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	74	312	85	32	10	100%	6.1	27.2%	10.3%	16.9%	3.1%	4.13	4.16	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	70	298	80	31	10	100%	5.9	27.0%	10.5%	16.5%	3.2%	4.23	4.29	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	66	280	75	30	10	100%	6.0	26.6%	10.8%	15.8%	3.4%	4.37	4.47	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	62	261	68	29	9	100%	6.2	26.2%	11.2%	15.1%	3.6%	4.55	4.67	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	33	139	38	15	4	100%	5.5	27.4%	10.8%	16.6%	2.9%	4.20	4.13	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	52	220	60	22	6	100%	5.8	27.5%	10.2%	17.3%	2.9%	4.11	4.04	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	61	258	71	26	7	100%	6.1	27.5%	10.1%	17.4%	2.9%	4.07	4.03	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	65	274	75	28	8	100%	5.9	27.4%	10.1%	17.2%	3.0%	4.08	4.07	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	66	279	76	29	9	100%	6.0	27.2%	10.3%	16.9%	3.1%	4.13	4.16	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	64	270	73	28	9	100%	5.8	27.0%	10.5%	16.5%	3.2%	4.23	4.29	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	61	258	69	28	9	100%	6.1	26.6%	10.8%	15.8%	3.4%	4.37	4.47	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	58	245	64	27	9	100%	5.8	26.2%	11.2%	15.1%	3.6%	4.55	4.67	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		77	77	460	1943	526	203	61	100%	6.0	27.1%	10.5%	16.6%	3.1%	4.22	3.86	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	229	88	27	100%	6.0	27.1%	10.5%	16.6%	3.1%	4.22	3.86	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		44	38	167	712	168	102	17	86%	3.8	23.5%	14.4%	9.2%	2.4%	3.72	4.23	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	46	200	853	201	122	20	86%	3.8	23.5%	14.4%	9.2%	2.4%	3.72	4.23	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Perry (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	27.2%	11.9%	2.9%	—	4.07	27.4%	17.1%	231	-0.22	—	—	—
David Festa R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP	3.68	24.5%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.71	27.2%	19.1%	209	+0.03	3.67	405	84
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	83
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	83
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.88	20.3%	9.2%	134	+0.19	2.44	223	82
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	81
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	81
Jackson Baumeister R 2024 · 3.32 FIP	22	SP	3.32	25.2%	13.4%	1.2%	.270	5.44	18.9%	6.2%	166	+2.12	3.32	265	81
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	81
George Klassen R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.0%	13.6%	1.7%	.299	4.01	20.6%	9.1%	221	+0.51	3.50	314	81
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	80
Rubby De La Rosa R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP-	3.75	23.6%	11.0%	2.3%	.300	4.27	16.2%	8.8%	113	+0.52	3.75	455	80
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	79
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	79
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	79
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	79
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	79
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	79
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	78
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.75	21.2%	12.0%	217	+0.23	4.39	458	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	73	27.1%	10.6%	1.19	4.22
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Octavio Dotel ('13)	4.8	79	28.4%	10.2%	1.11	3.78
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Matt Barnes ('24)	2.3	52	29.0%	10.6%	1.02	4.21