Patrick Forbes

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 23 RHP A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	11	10	30	2.73	2.36	35.3%	6.0%	—	K 26.6% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.65
2027PROJ	23	MLBARI	9	9	52	4.04	4.04	26.4%	8.8%	0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBARI	4	4	23	3.92	3.89	26.6%	8.7%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBARI	6	6	36	3.89	3.86	26.7%	8.6%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 80%

CompsMichael Grove (age 22) · River Ryan (age 23) · Brendan Beck (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.04

FIP4.04

K%26.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%17.5%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD3040

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	10	30	116	41	7	3	91%	2.7	26.6%	7.3%	19.3%	3.4%	2.73	3.65	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	10	30	116	41	7	3	91%	2.7	26.6%	7.3%	19.3%	3.4%	2.73	3.65	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	10	30	116	41	7	3	91%	2.7	35.3%	6.0%	29.3%	2.6%	2.73	2.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	ARI	9	9	52	220	58	19	7	100%	5.8	26.4%	8.8%	17.5%	3.0%	4.04	4.04	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	54	227	60	20	7	100%	5.4	26.6%	8.7%	17.9%	3.0%	4.01	3.98	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	ARI	9	9	54	230	61	20	7	100%	6.0	26.7%	8.6%	18.2%	3.0%	3.98	3.95	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	ARI	9	9	54	230	61	20	7	100%	6.0	26.8%	8.6%	18.2%	3.0%	3.96	3.94	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	ARI	9	9	54	226	60	20	7	100%	6.0	26.7%	8.6%	18.0%	3.0%	3.98	3.99	+0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	ARI	4	4	23	97	26	8	3	100%	5.8	26.6%	8.7%	17.9%	2.8%	3.92	3.89	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	36	152	41	13	4	100%	6.0	26.7%	8.6%	18.2%	2.8%	3.89	3.86	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	ARI	7	7	43	182	49	16	5	100%	6.1	26.8%	8.6%	18.2%	2.8%	3.87	3.85	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	ARI	8	8	46	194	52	17	6	100%	5.8	26.7%	8.6%	18.0%	2.9%	3.89	3.90	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	148	625	167	54	18	100%	5.9	26.7%	8.6%	18.1%	2.8%	3.89	3.49	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	226	73	24	100%	5.9	26.7%	8.6%	18.1%	2.8%	3.89	3.49	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		11	10	30	116	31	8	4	91%	2.7	26.6%	7.3%	19.3%	3.4%	2.73	3.65	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	67	200	782	208	57	27	91%	2.7	26.6%	7.3%	19.3%	3.4%	2.73	3.65	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Patrick Forbes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.04	26.4%	8.8%	3.0%	—	3.96	26.7%	18.1%	162	-0.08	—	—	—
Michael Grove R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	24.3%	9.5%	3.9%	.409	5.45	21.8%	11.5%	176	+1.06	3.01	396	80
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.88	20.3%	9.2%	134	+0.19	2.44	223	79
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	79
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	77
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	76
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	74
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	74
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	73
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	72
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	72
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	72
Sean Mooney R 2021 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	30.2%	15.3%	1.6%	.250	4.70	24.7%	11.2%	60	+1.34	3.36	102	71
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	71
David Festa R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP	3.68	24.5%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.71	27.2%	19.1%	209	+0.03	3.67	405	71
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	71
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	71
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	70
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	70
Cole Henry R 2022 · 3.11 FIP	23	SP	3.11	26.7%	11.6%	1.4%	.150	5.21	20.3%	6.2%	85	+2.10	2.96	186	70
German Nunez R 2024 · 3.00 FIP	22	SP	3.00	24.8%	6.8%	2.1%	.298	3.36	22.1%	11.2%	19	+0.36	2.27	151	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	54	26.6%	8.7%	1.16	3.99
Danny Farquhar ('18)	1.4	54	26.9%	9.2%	0.99	3.93
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Ryan Tepera ('23)	1.8	52	24.3%	8.8%	1.13	3.62
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Bob James ('78-'87, 4 WAR*)	2.0	68	26.3%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.04*