Riley Kelly

P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 23 RHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1166ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ACOL	15	14	65	5.40	3.85	31.0%	11.0%	—	K 22.9% · BB 13.0% · FIP 5.35
2027PROJ	23	MLBCOL	—	—	0	4.92	4.92	23.0%	12.7%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCOL	5	5	26	5.02	4.95	23.6%	11.4%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCOL	6	6	35	4.87	4.79	23.9%	10.6%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 3.8, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 85%

CompsTJ Shook (age 23) · CJ Van Eyk (age 22) · Trent Palmer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%23.0%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%10.3%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	15	14	65	281	87	31	10	93%	4.3	22.9%	13.0%	9.9%	4.6%	5.40	5.35	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	15	14	65	281	87	31	10	93%	4.3	22.9%	13.0%	9.9%	4.6%	5.40	5.35	—
2026	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	15	14	65	281	87	31	10	93%	4.3	31.0%	11.0%	19.9%	3.6%	5.40	3.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.0%	12.7%	10.3%	3.2%	4.92	4.92	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	62	260	61	30	8	100%	5.6	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	3.2%	4.75	4.68	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	9	9	53	225	54	24	7	100%	5.9	23.9%	10.6%	13.3%	3.1%	4.61	4.53	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	9	9	53	222	54	23	7	100%	5.8	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	3.1%	4.54	4.50	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	9	9	51	216	52	23	7	100%	5.7	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	3.2%	4.53	4.53	+0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	5	5	26	110	26	13	4	100%	5.2	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	3.7%	5.02	4.95	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	6	6	35	148	35	16	5	100%	5.8	23.9%	10.6%	13.3%	3.6%	4.87	4.79	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	42	177	43	19	6	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	3.6%	4.80	4.76	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	44	186	45	20	7	100%	6.3	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	3.7%	4.80	4.80	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	147	620	149	67	23	100%	5.9	24.0%	10.7%	13.2%	3.6%	4.86	4.43	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	203	91	31	100%	5.9	24.0%	10.7%	13.2%	3.6%	4.86	4.43	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		15	14	65	281	64	37	13	93%	4.3	22.9%	13.0%	9.9%	4.6%	5.40	5.35	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	43	200	865	198	113	40	93%	4.3	22.9%	13.0%	9.9%	4.6%	5.40	5.35	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 65 IPFIP 3.84 → 5.35 (+1.52)K% 31.0% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.96%	—	×0.740	22.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.03%	—	×1.180	13.02%
HR / BF /BF	3.56%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.63%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 5.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.58	23.9%	13.0%	167	-0.34	—	—	—
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	91
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	90
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	87
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	86
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	86
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.08	17.8%	6.3%	296	+0.09	4.14	536	86
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	84
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	84
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	84
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	84
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	83
Rubby De La Rosa R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP-	3.75	23.6%	11.0%	2.3%	.300	4.27	16.2%	8.8%	113	+0.52	3.75	455	83
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	83
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	83
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	82
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	82
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	82
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	82
Jared Lyons R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP	4.72	22.1%	14.4%	3.0%	.258	4.13	17.6%	8.7%	173	-0.59	3.28	265	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	56	23.7%	11.2%	1.23	4.68
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*