Herick Hernandez
P
Columbus Clingstones
+0.0
WAR
Age 22
LHP
5'10" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.6 · 2031
ERA5.15
FIP5.15
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.8%
BB%13.3%
K-BB%9.5%
IP103
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.6peak
2031
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 2 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 22 | 21 | 103 | 443 | 127 | 68 | 14 | 22.1% | 17.7% | 4.7% | 3.57 | 6.07 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 2 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 14 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 99 | 58 | 15 | 22.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 5.15 | 5.15 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 112 | 475 | 113 | 65 | 16 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 126 | 63 | 18 | 23.4% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 4.84 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 27 | 27 | 146 | 618 | 148 | 66 | 21 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.64 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 29 | 29 | 160 | 676 | 163 | 68 | 22 | 24.1% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.52 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 30 | 30 | 167 | 706 | 172 | 70 | 23 | 24.3% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.49 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 31 | 31 | 170 | 717 | 174 | 71 | 24 | 24.3% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.49 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 31 | 31 | 169 | 715 | 174 | 71 | 24 | 24.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 30 | 30 | 166 | 699 | 169 | 70 | 24 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.57 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 29 | 29 | 161 | 678 | 162 | 69 | 23 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.63 | +1.2 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 28 | 28 | 155 | 654 | 155 | 67 | 23 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.71 | +1.0 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 27 | 27 | 149 | 628 | 147 | 66 | 23 | 23.4% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 139 | 64 | 22 | 23.1% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 4.83 | 4.89 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 25 | 135 | 570 | 130 | 62 | 22 | 22.8% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 4.93 | 5.00 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 120 | 59 | 21 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 5.04 | 5.12 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 26 | 25 | 119 | 506 | 124 | 85 | 22 | 24.5% | 16.8% | 4.3% | 3.26 | 5.55 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 42 | 200 | 853 | 209 | 143 | 37 | 24.5% | 16.8% | 4.3% | 3.26 | 5.55 | -0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Herick Hernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.15 | 22.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | — | 4.65 | 23.8% | 13.1% | 434 | -0.50 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Knarr L 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.86 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.17 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.69 | 4.10 | 256 | 94 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.42 | 28.3% | 12.6% | 63 | -1.72 | 1.94 | 146 | 90 |
| Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.63 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.37 | 2.56 | 718 | 90 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 89 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.18 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.35 | 414 | 89 |
| Brandon Finnegan L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.50 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .287 | 5.02 | 18.5% | 6.5% | 273 | +0.52 | 3.85 | 489 | 89 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.46 | 17.7% | 2.8% | 117 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 212 | 88 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.85 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .301 | 3.73 | 22.6% | 13.4% | 378 | -1.12 | 2.46 | 1,369 | 86 |
| Dalton Rogers L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.28 | 25.3% | 16.7% | 2.2% | .327 | 3.78 | 20.7% | 6.3% | 188 | -0.50 | 3.48 | 284 | 86 |
| John Beller L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.60 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.38 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 90 | -0.22 | 4.21 | 170 | 86 |
| Sam Garcia L 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 86 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.08 | 4.01 | 212 | 86 |
| Tyler Pike L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.79 | 19.5% | 14.8% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.33 | 19.3% | 1.2% | 175 | -0.46 | 3.41 | 565 | 84 |
| Andrew Faulkner L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .290 | 4.07 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 142 | -0.69 | 3.72 | 252 | 84 |
| Greg Farone L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 83 |
| Matt Wilkinson L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 223 | 83 |
| Dominic Perachi L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.3% | .324 | 3.56 | 17.8% | 7.8% | 150 | -1.63 | 3.30 | 240 | 83 |
| Dylan Carmouche L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.0% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .332 | 4.38 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 70 | +0.01 | 4.37 | 192 | 83 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 82 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.4 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.6 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.5 | $14M | +$12M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.4 | $14M | +$10M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.2 | $12M | +$7M |
| Totals | $14M | $81M | +$67M | ||