Herick Hernandez

Herick Hernandez P Columbus Clingstones

Age 22 LHP 5'10" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133143vR 152

ERA5.93

FIP5.93

K%22.5%

BB%17.6%

K-BB%4.9%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 119 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL3540

CMD3040

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	2	2	7	24	12	0	0	100%	3.3	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	2.70	-1.12	—
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	2	2	7	24	12	0	0	100%	3.3	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	2.70	-0.50	—
2025	21	A+	Rome Emperors	22	21	103	443	127	68	14	95%	4.7	22.1%	17.7%	4.4%	6.2%	3.57	6.87	—
2025	21	A+	Rome Emperors	22	21	103	443	127	68	14	95%	4.7	28.7%	15.3%	13.3%	3.2%	3.57	4.38	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	13	13	54	236	71	35	7	100%	4.2	26.3%	17.3%	9.0%	3.0%	2.98	4.74	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	ATL	13	13	65	274	62	48	11	100%	5.0	22.5%	17.6%	4.9%	3.9%	5.93	5.93	-1.0
ROS	22	MLB	ATL	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	22.5%	17.6%	4.9%	3.9%	5.93	5.93	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB	ATL	—	—	119	510	133	83	18	—	—	26.0%	16.3%	9.7%	3.5%	4.59	5.39	+0.0
2026 FULL	22	MLB	ATL	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	22.5%	17.6%	4.9%	3.9%	5.93	5.55	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	ATL	24	24	128	540	125	81	20	100%	5.3	23.2%	15.0%	8.1%	3.7%	5.60	5.49	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	ATL	23	23	131	554	131	74	20	100%	5.7	23.6%	13.4%	10.2%	3.7%	5.32	5.19	+0.3
2029	25	MLB	ATL	23	23	133	560	134	69	20	100%	5.8	23.9%	12.4%	11.5%	3.6%	5.12	5.01	+0.6
2030	26	MLB	ATL	22	22	133	560	135	69	20	100%	6.0	24.1%	12.2%	11.8%	3.6%	5.03	4.97	+0.7
2031	27	MLB	ATL	22	22	131	552	133	68	20	100%	5.9	24.1%	12.3%	11.7%	3.6%	5.02	5.01	+0.6
2032	28	MLB	ATL	21	21	127	535	128	67	20	100%	6.0	23.9%	12.5%	11.5%	3.7%	5.06	5.09	+0.5
2033	29	MLB	ATL	20	20	121	511	121	65	20	100%	6.1	23.7%	12.7%	11.0%	3.9%	5.16	5.23	+0.2
2027	23	MLB	ATL	12	12	64	270	63	41	10	100%	5.3	23.2%	15.0%	8.1%	3.7%	5.60	5.49	-0.6
2028	24	MLB	ATL	16	16	92	388	92	52	14	100%	5.8	23.6%	13.4%	10.2%	3.7%	5.32	5.19	+0.0
2029	25	MLB	ATL	18	18	108	456	109	57	16	100%	6.0	23.9%	12.4%	11.5%	3.6%	5.12	5.01	+0.5
2030	26	MLB	ATL	19	19	116	490	118	60	18	100%	6.1	24.1%	12.2%	11.8%	3.6%	5.03	4.97	+0.6
2031	27	MLB	ATL	20	20	118	498	120	61	18	100%	5.9	24.1%	12.3%	11.7%	3.6%	5.02	5.01	+0.5
2032	28	MLB	ATL	20	20	117	494	118	62	19	100%	5.8	23.9%	12.5%	11.5%	3.7%	5.06	5.09	+0.4
2033	29	MLB	ATL	19	19	113	477	113	60	19	100%	5.9	23.7%	12.7%	11.0%	3.9%	5.16	5.23	+0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			125	125	729	3080	734	394	114	100%	5.8	23.8%	12.8%	11.0%	3.7%	5.15	4.74	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	201	108	31	100%	5.9	23.8%	12.8%	11.0%	3.7%	5.15	4.74	+1.5
Career	—			37	36	164	703	172	119	35	97%	4.4	24.5%	16.9%	7.5%	4.9%	3.34	5.88	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—			45	44	200	856	209	145	42	97%	4.4	24.5%	16.9%	7.5%	4.9%	3.34	5.88	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Herick Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.93	22.5%	17.6%	3.9%	—	5.23	23.6%	10.0%	392	-0.70	—	—	—
Xavier Rivas L 2027 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	23.2%	16.4%	3.0%	.229	5.34	28.7%	15.4%	64	+0.47	4.87	150	82
Tyler Pike L 2026 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP	4.83	19.5%	14.8%	2.8%	.278	4.38	19.3%	1.2%	175	-0.45	3.42	565	82
Jagger Haynes L 2026 · 5.47 FIP	22	SP	5.47	18.5%	15.4%	3.6%	.265	4.74	16.5%	4.9%	89	-0.73	4.14	328	81
Doug Nikhazy L 2026 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP	4.88	21.8%	19.9%	2.0%	.270	4.85	21.2%	7.8%	312	-0.03	4.20	458	81
Brandon Knarr L 2027 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.21	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.62	4.15	256	81
Max Fried L 2026 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP	4.91	19.5%	13.0%	3.3%	.301	3.79	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.12	2.56	1,397	79
Samy Natera Jr. L 2027 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.68	29.8%	14.8%	108	-1.49	1.94	191	79
Luis De La Torre L 2026 · 5.47 FIP	22	SP	5.47	22.7%	20.1%	3.2%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	2.69	173	78
Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 6.15 FIP	22	SP	6.15	16.3%	15.7%	4.4%	.212	5.18	20.6%	9.1%	195	-0.97	4.60	308	77
Dominic Perachi L 2026 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP-	5.25	17.5%	13.9%	3.4%	.324	3.93	17.1%	6.8%	182	-1.32	3.47	273	77
Connor O'Halloran L 2025 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	17.2%	12.3%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	5.02	104	75
Matt Wilkinson L 2026 · 4.82 FIP	22	SP	4.82	20.2%	11.6%	3.6%	.312	3.36	24.3%	14.4%	62	-1.46	3.17	284	75
Luis De Avila L 2026 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	19.4%	12.9%	3.1%	.278	3.70	14.6%	3.0%	101	-1.11	3.36	434	75
Brooks Gosswein L 2027 · 5.01 FIP	23	SP	5.01	14.7%	14.8%	2.3%	.328	5.58	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.57	5.01	165	72
Tommy Henry L 2028 · 4.80 FIP	24	SP	4.80	22.2%	11.8%	3.8%	.327	4.46	18.9%	8.8%	417	-0.34	4.33	629	71
Cole Ragans L 2027 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP	5.15	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.38	26.8%	17.4%	445	-1.77	2.46	623	71
Spencer Giesting L 2026 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	18.3%	15.6%	2.4%	.285	4.13	20.0%	10.1%	302	-0.71	3.48	433	71
Yu-Min Lin L 2026 · 6.24 FIP	22	SP	6.24	15.6%	13.1%	5.1%	.333	4.84	12.9%	1.3%	76	-1.40	2.72	450	70
Justin Sinibaldi L 2027 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	15.9%	11.1%	3.0%	.286	6.01	14.0%	3.4%	72	+1.22	4.79	163	70
Frank Mozzicato L 2026 · 5.97 FIP	22	SP	5.97	16.1%	20.0%	3.1%	.247	7.33	19.4%	-1.6%	48	+1.36	4.87	405	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	128	23.6%	13.5%	1.44	5.28
Chad Kuhl ('24)	8	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Héctor Santiago ('21)	6	99	20.3%	10.5%	1.56	4.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	7	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Josiah Gray ('23)	3	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Francisco Liriano ('19)	5	130	22.3%	11.2%	1.09	4.30