Herick Hernandez

P Columbus Clingstones

Age 23 LHP 5'10" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#714ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	2	2	7	2.70	-0.50	50.0%	0.0%	—	K 50.0% · BB 0.0% · FIP -1.12
2025	21	A+ATL	22	21	103	3.57	4.38	28.7%	15.3%	—	K 22.1% · BB 17.7% · FIP 6.12
2026	22	MIX3 levels	18	18	75	4.10	4.22	28.7%	15.8%	—	K 24.5% · BB 16.6% · FIP 4.91
2027PROJ	23	MLBATL	1	1	2	5.53	5.53	23.8%	17.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBATL	10	10	54	5.25	5.15	24.2%	15.3%	0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBATL	10	10	61	5.02	4.92	24.4%	13.7%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1M

Career WAR0.2 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 7.2, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 75%

CompsDoug Nikhazy (age 23) · Brandon Knarr (age 23) · Samy Natera Jr. (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.53

FIP5.53

K%23.8%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP123

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$9M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	7	24	12	0	0	100%	3.3	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	2.70	-1.12	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	7	24	12	0	0	100%	3.3	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	2.70	-1.12	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	2	7	24	12	0	0	100%	3.3	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	2.70	-0.50	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	22	21	103	443	127	68	14	95%	4.7	22.1%	17.7%	4.4%	4.8%	3.57	6.12	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	22	21	103	443	127	68	14	95%	4.7	22.1%	17.7%	4.4%	4.8%	3.57	6.12	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Rome Emperors	22	21	103	443	127	68	14	95%	4.7	28.7%	15.3%	13.3%	3.2%	3.57	4.38	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	75	335	96	53	9	100%	4.1	24.5%	16.6%	8.0%	3.2%	4.10	4.91	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	75	335	96	53	9	100%	4.1	24.5%	16.6%	8.0%	3.2%	4.10	4.91	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	75	335	96	53	9	100%	4.1	28.7%	15.8%	12.8%	2.7%	4.10	4.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	ATL	1	1	2	8	2	2	0	100%	2.0	23.8%	17.8%	6.0%	3.3%	5.53	5.53	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	123	521	126	80	17	100%	5.6	24.2%	15.3%	8.9%	3.2%	5.25	5.15	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	91	386	94	53	12	100%	5.7	24.4%	13.7%	10.7%	3.2%	5.02	4.92	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	89	375	92	50	12	100%	5.9	24.4%	13.4%	11.1%	3.2%	4.91	4.86	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	ATL	14	14	86	362	88	48	12	100%	6.1	24.4%	13.3%	11.1%	3.2%	4.89	4.88	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	ATL	14	14	82	344	83	46	11	100%	5.8	24.2%	13.5%	10.8%	3.3%	4.94	4.97	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	76	320	77	44	11	100%	5.8	24.0%	13.7%	10.3%	3.5%	5.04	5.10	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	69	290	69	41	11	100%	6.2	23.7%	14.0%	9.7%	3.7%	5.18	5.28	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	54	228	55	35	7	100%	5.4	24.2%	15.3%	8.9%	3.2%	5.25	5.15	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	61	258	63	35	8	100%	6.1	24.4%	13.7%	10.7%	3.2%	5.02	4.92	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	71	300	73	40	10	100%	5.9	24.4%	13.4%	11.1%	3.2%	4.91	4.86	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	73	308	75	41	10	100%	6.1	24.4%	13.3%	11.1%	3.2%	4.89	4.88	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	73	308	75	41	10	100%	6.1	24.2%	13.5%	10.8%	3.3%	4.94	4.97	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	69	291	70	40	10	100%	5.8	24.0%	13.7%	10.3%	3.5%	5.04	5.10	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	63	266	63	37	10	100%	6.3	23.7%	14.0%	9.7%	3.7%	5.18	5.28	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	78	464	1959	474	270	65	100%	5.9	24.2%	13.8%	10.4%	3.3%	5.02	4.64	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	204	116	28	100%	5.9	24.2%	13.8%	10.4%	3.3%	5.02	4.64	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		42	41	185	802	192	134	32	98%	4.4	23.9%	16.7%	7.3%	4.0%	3.75	5.40	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	869	208	145	35	98%	4.4	23.9%	16.7%	7.3%	4.0%	3.75	5.40	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 45 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.74 (+1.00)K% 32.5% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.49%	—	×0.810	26.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.74%	—	×1.100	17.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.54%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.05%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 26 IPFIP 4.92 → 5.18 (+0.26)K% 25.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.20%	—	×0.860	21.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.07%	—	×0.900	15.37%
HR / BF /BF	3.25%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.58%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.92 → 5.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Rome Emperors · 103 IPFIP 4.36 → 6.12 (+1.76)K% 28.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.67%	—	×0.770	22.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.35%	—	×1.150	17.65%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷0.819	×1.250	4.82%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 64).

Result: FIP 4.36 → 6.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Herick Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	5.00	24.3%	10.1%	304	-0.53	—	—	—
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.71	20.2%	9.3%	258	-0.68	4.12	463	84
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	81
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	78
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	74
Lucas Gordon L 2024 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.3%	15.7%	3.5%	.212	5.08	20.0%	8.1%	225	-0.53	4.44	338	74
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	73
John Doxakis L 2022 · 5.12 FIP	23	SP	5.12	18.2%	11.9%	3.8%	.252	4.76	17.8%	4.4%	113	-0.36	3.19	332	73
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	72
Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.09 FIP	21	SP	5.09	17.2%	12.3%	3.4%	.287	6.36	14.3%	-6.0%	32	+1.27	5.09	136	71
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	71
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	70
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	70
Mason Montgomery L 2023 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.8%	11.9%	4.1%	.272	3.75	29.4%	20.1%	202	-1.24	2.28	451	70
Tommy Henry L 2021 · 5.25 FIP	24	SP	5.25	22.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.327	4.52	18.7%	9.1%	417	-0.73	4.36	676	70
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	70
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	70
Frank Mozzicato L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	21	SP	5.34	16.4%	16.7%	2.8%	.238	6.33	18.8%	-2.2%	165	+0.99	5.00	428	70
Jagger Haynes L 2024 · 5.30 FIP	21	SP	5.30	18.5%	16.0%	3.2%	.278	4.83	17.3%	4.5%	238	-0.47	4.25	374	69
Rylan Kaufman L 2022 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.5%	13.4%	3.0%	.319	4.01	21.9%	0.1%	17	-0.85	4.01	212	69
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	92	24.1%	14.6%	1.28	5.12
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52