Herick Hernandez

Herick Hernandez P Columbus Clingstones

Age 22 LHP 5'10" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION75 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127136vR 144

ERA5.82

FIP5.82

K%22.5%

BB%18.3%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL3540

CMD3040

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	7	24	12	0	0	100%	3.3	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	2.70	-1.12	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	7	24	12	0	0	100%	3.3	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	2.70	-1.12	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	2	7	24	12	0	0	100%	3.3	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	2.70	-0.50	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	22	21	103	443	127	68	14	95%	4.7	22.1%	17.7%	4.4%	4.8%	3.57	6.12	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	22	21	103	443	127	68	14	95%	4.7	22.1%	17.7%	4.4%	4.8%	3.57	6.12	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Rome Emperors	22	21	103	443	127	68	14	95%	4.7	28.7%	15.3%	13.3%	3.2%	3.57	4.38	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	18	18	75	335	96	53	9	100%	4.1	24.2%	16.6%	7.7%	3.2%	4.10	4.93	—
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	18	18	75	335	96	53	9	100%	4.1	24.2%	16.6%	7.7%	3.2%	4.10	4.93	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	ATL	1	1	4	15	1	1	0	100%	3.7	6.7%	6.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.38	—
2026	22	AA RAW	ATL	11	11	45	197	64	31	5	100%	4.1	32.5%	15.7%	16.8%	2.5%	2.80	3.74	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	ATL	6	6	26	123	31	21	4	100%	4.3	25.2%	17.1%	8.1%	3.3%	6.92	4.92	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	ATL	2	2	10	44	10	8	2	100%	5.2	22.5%	18.3%	4.2%	3.5%	5.82	5.82	-0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	85	379	106	61	11	—	—	27.9%	16.1%	11.8%	2.8%	4.31	5.04	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ATL	24	24	128	540	125	84	18	100%	5.3	23.2%	15.6%	7.6%	3.4%	5.48	5.37	-0.7
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	131	554	131	77	19	100%	5.7	23.6%	13.8%	9.8%	3.3%	5.20	5.07	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	133	560	134	71	19	100%	5.8	23.9%	12.7%	11.2%	3.3%	5.00	4.89	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	133	560	135	70	19	100%	6.0	24.1%	12.6%	11.5%	3.3%	4.91	4.85	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	131	552	133	70	19	100%	5.9	24.1%	12.6%	11.4%	3.4%	4.90	4.89	+0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	127	535	128	68	19	100%	6.0	23.9%	12.8%	11.1%	3.5%	4.95	4.98	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	121	511	121	66	18	100%	6.1	23.7%	13.0%	10.7%	3.6%	5.04	5.11	-0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	114	480	112	64	18	100%	6.0	23.3%	13.3%	10.0%	3.8%	5.19	5.28	-0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	64	270	63	42	9	100%	5.3	23.2%	15.6%	7.6%	3.4%	5.48	5.37	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	92	388	92	54	13	100%	5.8	23.6%	13.8%	9.8%	3.3%	5.20	5.07	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	108	456	109	58	15	100%	6.0	23.9%	12.7%	11.2%	3.3%	5.00	4.89	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	116	490	118	61	16	100%	6.1	24.1%	12.6%	11.5%	3.3%	4.91	4.85	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	118	498	120	63	17	100%	5.9	24.1%	12.6%	11.4%	3.4%	4.90	4.89	+0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	117	494	118	63	17	100%	5.8	23.9%	12.8%	11.1%	3.5%	4.95	4.98	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	113	477	113	62	17	100%	5.9	23.7%	13.0%	10.7%	3.6%	5.04	5.11	-0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	107	452	105	60	17	100%	5.9	23.3%	13.3%	10.0%	3.8%	5.19	5.28	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		142	142	835	3525	838	463	122	100%	5.9	23.8%	13.1%	10.6%	3.5%	5.06	4.65	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	201	111	29	100%	5.9	23.8%	13.1%	10.6%	3.5%	5.06	4.65	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		42	41	185	802	191	134	32	98%	4.4	23.8%	16.7%	7.1%	4.0%	3.75	5.41	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	869	207	145	35	98%	4.4	23.8%	16.7%	7.1%	4.0%	3.75	5.41	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Herick Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.82	22.5%	18.3%	3.5%	—	5.11	23.6%	9.5%	392	-0.71	—	—	—
Doug Nikhazy L 2022 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	21.8%	19.9%	2.2%	.270	4.78	20.6%	8.1%	312	-0.21	4.16	461	85
Tyler Pike L 2016 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	19.5%	14.8%	2.7%	.278	4.33	19.3%	1.2%	175	-0.46	3.41	565	82
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	79
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.56	1,435	78
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	77
Frank Mozzicato L 2023 · 5.42 FIP	20	SP	5.42	23.6%	18.9%	3.5%	.284	5.95	17.9%	-1.5%	266	+0.53	5.00	428	76
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	76
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	73
Spencer Giesting L 2023 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP	4.78	18.3%	15.6%	2.3%	.285	4.08	19.8%	10.4%	326	-0.70	3.58	457	71
Maddux Bruns L 2023 · 4.67 FIP	21	SP	4.67	22.3%	18.0%	2.1%	.261	4.55	18.6%	-1.9%	93	-0.12	3.50	235	71
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	70
Tommy Henry L 2021 · 5.25 FIP	24	SP	5.25	22.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.327	4.54	18.5%	8.9%	417	-0.71	4.40	671	69
Jordan Guerrero L 2016 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP	5.13	14.7%	13.5%	2.9%	.298	4.09	17.3%	8.4%	350	-1.04	3.05	635	68
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	67
Gabriel Cotto L 2022 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP	5.19	17.6%	14.9%	3.1%	.283	5.23	13.9%	0.4%	88	+0.04	5.02	236	66
Luis Lugo L 2016 · 4.68 FIP	22	SP	4.68	15.2%	10.5%	2.8%	.299	4.96	15.7%	5.5%	265	+0.28	4.29	622	65
Steve Hajjar L 2023 · 5.59 FIP	22	SP	5.59	17.4%	23.3%	1.8%	.231	7.00	15.0%	-10.6%	40	+1.41	3.67	141	65
Manuel Rondon L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	22	SP	5.78	14.8%	13.8%	4.0%	.316	4.18	17.6%	4.1%	101	-1.60	3.34	269	65
John Gavin L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	21.1%	11.0%	3.9%	.237	4.28	17.5%	5.5%	82	-0.59	2.59	220	65
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	127	23.6%	13.8%	1.33	5.16
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64