Aiden May — OGILVIE

Aiden May P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 196 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 47 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%21.0%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP47

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—60

CTRL—50

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	10	9	27	114	30	16	3	90%	2.7	16.6%	18.6%	-1.9%	2.7%	2.63	5.55	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	10	9	27	114	30	16	3	90%	2.7	26.3%	14.0%	12.3%	2.6%	2.63	4.09	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	11	11	53	228	46	20	4	100%	4.8	15.5%	10.1%	5.4%	2.2%	4.25	4.27	+0.2
ROS	23	MLB	MIA	9	9	47	198	42	20	6	100%	5.2	21.0%	10.3%	10.7%	3.0%	4.65	4.65	-0.1
ROS	23	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.0%	10.3%	10.7%	2.9%	4.60	4.60	—
2026 TOT	23	MLB	MIA	—	—	100	426	88	40	10	—	—	20.6%	9.5%	11.1%	2.3%	4.44	4.45	+1.1
2026 FULL	23	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	21.0%	10.3%	10.7%	2.9%	4.60	4.22	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	MIA	13	13	74	313	71	30	9	100%	5.7	22.7%	9.6%	13.0%	3.0%	4.49	4.41	+0.4
2028	25	MLB	MIA	16	16	93	393	93	36	12	100%	5.8	23.7%	9.3%	14.4%	2.9%	4.36	4.27	+1.1
2029	26	MLB	MIA	18	18	105	444	107	41	13	100%	5.8	24.2%	9.2%	15.0%	2.9%	4.28	4.22	+1.5
2030	27	MLB	MIA	17	17	104	437	105	40	13	100%	6.1	24.1%	9.2%	14.9%	3.0%	4.27	4.26	+1.4
2031	28	MLB	MIA	17	17	100	424	102	40	13	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.3%	14.6%	3.1%	4.31	4.34	+1.2
2032	29	MLB	MIA	16	16	96	405	96	39	13	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.6%	14.2%	3.2%	4.41	4.47	+0.9
2033	30	MLB	MIA	15	15	90	380	89	38	13	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.5%	4.55	4.65	+0.6
2034	31	MLB	MIA	14	14	84	355	82	36	13	100%	6.0	23.0%	10.2%	12.8%	3.7%	4.73	4.85	+0.2
2035	32	MLB	MIA	13	13	78	328	80	32	13	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.8%	14.7%	3.9%	4.78	4.81	+0.1
2036	33	MLB	MIA	12	12	71	301	72	31	13	100%	5.9	24.0%	10.3%	13.8%	4.2%	4.95	5.06	-0.2
2037	34	MLB	MIA	11	11	65	274	64	30	12	100%	5.9	23.5%	10.8%	12.7%	4.5%	5.18	5.33	-0.5
2027	24	MLB	MIA	6	6	32	135	31	13	4	100%	5.3	22.7%	9.6%	13.0%	2.9%	4.45	4.37	+0.1
2028	25	MLB	MIA	11	11	62	262	62	24	7	100%	5.6	23.7%	9.3%	14.4%	2.9%	4.32	4.23	+0.3
2029	26	MLB	MIA	14	14	83	350	85	32	10	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.2%	15.0%	2.9%	4.24	4.18	+0.8
2030	27	MLB	MIA	15	15	88	372	90	34	11	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.2%	14.9%	2.9%	4.22	4.21	+1.0
2031	28	MLB	MIA	15	15	89	376	90	35	11	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.3%	14.6%	3.0%	4.26	4.29	+0.9
2032	29	MLB	MIA	14	14	87	367	87	35	12	100%	6.2	23.7%	9.6%	14.2%	3.2%	4.36	4.42	+0.7
2033	30	MLB	MIA	14	14	83	350	82	35	12	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.4%	4.50	4.60	+0.4
2034	31	MLB	MIA	13	13	78	329	76	34	12	100%	6.0	23.0%	10.2%	12.8%	3.6%	4.67	4.79	+0.1
2035	32	MLB	MIA	12	12	73	308	76	30	12	100%	6.1	24.5%	9.8%	14.7%	3.8%	4.72	4.75	+0.1
2036	33	MLB	MIA	11	11	68	287	69	30	12	100%	6.2	24.0%	10.3%	13.8%	4.1%	4.89	5.00	-0.2
2037	34	MLB	MIA	10	10	59	249	58	27	11	100%	5.9	23.5%	10.8%	12.7%	4.4%	5.11	5.26	-0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			134	134	803	3389	805	329	113	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.7%	14.1%	3.3%	4.50	4.16	+11.7
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	201	82	28	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.7%	14.1%	3.3%	4.50	4.16	+2.9
Career	—			21	20	80	342	54	44	8	95%	3.8	15.9%	12.9%	3.0%	2.4%	3.70	4.69	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—			52	50	200	851	135	110	20	95%	3.8	15.9%	12.9%	3.0%	2.4%	3.70	4.69	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aiden May (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	21.0%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.29	23.6%	14.3%	272	-0.36	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	20.3%	9.9%	2.3%	.315	4.36	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.44	3.76	537	92
Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	88
Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	21.7%	8.4%	3.5%	.329	3.55	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.68	2.49	298	87
Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	22.0%	10.4%	4.2%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	-0.02	3.51	140	87
Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	18.0%	8.6%	2.5%	.288	4.99	14.1%	6.7%	217	+0.97	4.02	285	86
TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.82 FIP	23	SP	4.82	21.7%	13.8%	3.3%	.311	5.12	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.30	3.36	432	85
Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.6%	7.4%	2.6%	.241	5.26	18.3%	7.9%	176	+1.61	3.65	211	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 5.01 FIP	22	SP	5.01	21.8%	12.7%	3.9%	.302	4.47	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.54	3.95	411	84
Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP	4.78	21.2%	11.0%	3.8%	.276	5.00	18.0%	6.0%	296	+0.22	4.22	513	84
Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP	5.00	21.4%	10.8%	4.2%	.236	4.59	22.3%	3.9%	180	-0.41	4.20	311	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.53	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.05	4.07	338	83
Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	18.9%	10.3%	2.6%	.329	4.33	21.3%	10.9%	132	+0.09	2.63	213	83
Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	23	SP-	3.56	21.9%	8.3%	2.3%	.284	3.43	20.0%	10.3%	195	-0.13	2.97	258	83
Brandon White R 2026 · 5.11 FIP	23	SP	5.11	16.7%	10.3%	3.8%	.264	4.10	17.7%	10.4%	245	-1.01	3.90	264	82
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	23	SP	3.63	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.10	24.1%	14.3%	117	+0.47	3.63	209	82
Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	21.5%	12.1%	3.0%	.275	4.09	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.36	3.05	181	82
Tyler Skulina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP	4.46	18.3%	11.6%	2.6%	.242	5.24	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+0.78	4.46	222	82
Angel Jimenez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	22.7%	9.7%	2.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	194	81
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.94 FIP	23	SP-	4.94	20.2%	12.2%	3.7%	.269	4.98	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.04	4.60	529	81
Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	20.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.266	5.22	16.1%	2.8%	185	+0.56	3.71	370	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	12	84	23.6%	9.7%	1.30	4.54
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Matt Moore ('24)	8	98	20.5%	9.3%	1.33	4.82
Daniel Norris ('22)	8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Trevor Cahill ('21)	7	67	21.3%	10.1%	1.29	4.66
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19