Aiden May

P Spokane Indians

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 196 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#450ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	10	9	27	2.63	4.09	26.3%	14.0%	—	K 16.6% · BB 18.6% · FIP 5.60
2026	23	A+COL	19	19	91	3.96	3.28	18.4%	8.1%	—	K 14.2% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.96
2027PROJ	24	MLBCOL	—	—	0	4.83	4.83	16.4%	10.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCOL	7	7	39	4.86	4.77	19.0%	9.5%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCOL	10	10	60	4.72	4.64	20.6%	9.3%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.6M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsRiley Thompson (age 23) · Dylan Burns (age 25) · Cameron Foster (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%16.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$27M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	27	114	30	16	3	90%	2.7	16.6%	18.6%	-1.9%	2.8%	2.63	5.60	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	27	114	30	16	3	90%	2.7	16.6%	18.6%	-1.9%	2.8%	2.63	5.60	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	27	114	30	16	3	90%	2.7	26.3%	14.0%	12.3%	2.6%	2.63	4.09	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	19	19	91	385	71	31	5	100%	4.8	14.2%	9.3%	4.9%	1.6%	3.96	3.96	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	19	19	91	385	71	31	5	100%	4.8	14.2%	9.3%	4.9%	1.6%	3.96	3.96	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	19	19	91	385	71	31	5	100%	4.8	18.4%	8.1%	10.4%	1.3%	3.96	3.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.4%	10.1%	6.3%	2.7%	4.83	4.83	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	90	380	72	36	10	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	2.7%	4.64	4.55	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	91	383	79	36	10	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	2.7%	4.49	4.41	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	86	363	75	34	10	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.3%	11.3%	2.8%	4.45	4.44	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	81	343	71	32	10	100%	5.8	20.6%	9.4%	11.1%	2.9%	4.49	4.52	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	75	318	65	31	10	100%	5.8	20.3%	9.7%	10.7%	3.0%	4.58	4.65	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	68	288	57	29	9	100%	6.2	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	3.2%	4.73	4.82	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	61	257	50	26	9	100%	6.1	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	3.5%	4.91	5.02	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	39	165	31	16	5	100%	5.6	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	3.1%	4.86	4.77	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	60	253	52	24	8	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	3.1%	4.72	4.64	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	67	283	58	26	9	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.3%	11.3%	3.2%	4.68	4.67	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	68	287	59	27	10	100%	6.2	20.6%	9.4%	11.1%	3.3%	4.73	4.76	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	66	279	57	27	10	100%	6.0	20.3%	9.7%	10.7%	3.5%	4.83	4.90	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	61	258	51	26	10	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	3.7%	5.00	5.09	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	56	236	46	24	9	100%	6.2	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	4.0%	5.20	5.31	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	70	417	1759	355	169	60	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	3.4%	4.85	4.49	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	170	81	29	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	3.4%	4.85	4.49	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		29	28	118	499	74	57	9	97%	4.1	14.8%	11.4%	3.4%	1.9%	3.65	4.34	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	47	200	843	124	96	16	97%	4.1	14.8%	11.4%	3.4%	1.9%	3.65	4.34	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Spokane Indians · 91 IPFIP 3.28 → 3.96 (+0.69)K% 18.4% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.44%	—	×0.770	14.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.05%	—	×1.150	9.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.62%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 21 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.60 (+1.17)K% 22.5% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.47%	—	×0.740	16.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.73%	—	×1.180	18.56%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷1.035	×1.300	2.82%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Marlins · 7 IPFIP 2.93 → 5.45 (+2.52)K% 40.0% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.680	27.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.250	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷0.910	×1.400	6.15%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.93 → 5.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aiden May (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.47	20.1%	10.7%	267	-0.36	—	—	—
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	93
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	89
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	89
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.66	29.0%	22.4%	43	-1.44	2.66	143	87
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	87
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	86
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	86
Ryan Bergert R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	16.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.317	4.27	21.4%	11.7%	121	+0.33	3.44	428	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	85
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	85
Brett Wichrowski R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	21	SP	4.11	17.0%	11.2%	1.9%	.267	4.86	16.2%	5.6%	180	+0.75	4.03	269	84
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	84
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	84
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	84
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	84
Charlie Morton R 2008 · 4.79 FIP	24	SP	4.79	13.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.285	3.97	14.7%	6.0%	348	-0.82	2.52	2,281	84
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	83
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	83
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	83
Ike Buxton R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	24	SP	4.45	15.4%	13.1%	1.8%	.341	4.97	13.8%	-5.5%	46	+0.52	4.45	196	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	80	19.6%	9.7%	1.12	4.63
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Dustin McGowan ('17)	3.3	65	19.2%	9.9%	1.08	4.50
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Paul Gibson ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.8	80	19.0%*	9.5%*	1.18*	4.37*
Chris Stratton ('25)	3.1	69	21.0%	9.5%	1.02	4.64