Aiden May — OGILVIE

Aiden May P Spokane Indians

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 196 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%21.8%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%6.5%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—60

CTRL—50

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	27	114	30	16	3	90%	2.7	16.6%	18.6%	-1.9%	2.8%	2.63	5.60	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	27	114	30	16	3	90%	2.7	16.6%	18.6%	-1.9%	2.8%	2.63	5.60	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	27	114	30	16	3	90%	2.7	26.3%	14.0%	12.3%	2.6%	2.63	4.09	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	19	19	91	385	71	31	5	100%	4.8	14.2%	9.3%	4.9%	1.6%	3.96	3.96	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	19	19	91	385	71	31	5	100%	4.8	14.2%	9.3%	4.9%	1.6%	3.96	3.96	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	COL	19	19	91	385	71	31	5	100%	4.8	18.4%	8.1%	10.4%	1.3%	3.96	3.28	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	117	495	115	66	15	100%	5.6	23.1%	13.2%	9.9%	3.0%	4.95	4.83	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	137	578	138	69	17	100%	5.9	23.9%	11.9%	12.0%	2.9%	4.71	4.59	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	25	25	149	628	153	73	19	100%	6.0	24.4%	11.7%	12.7%	3.0%	4.59	4.52	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	24	24	147	619	150	72	19	100%	6.1	24.3%	11.6%	12.7%	3.0%	4.56	4.55	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	24	24	142	600	145	71	19	100%	5.9	24.2%	11.8%	12.4%	3.1%	4.61	4.64	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	136	573	137	69	19	100%	5.9	23.9%	12.0%	11.9%	3.3%	4.70	4.77	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	128	539	127	66	19	100%	6.1	23.6%	12.3%	11.3%	3.5%	4.85	4.94	-0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	119	503	117	64	18	100%	6.0	23.2%	12.7%	10.5%	3.7%	5.03	5.15	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	50	211	49	28	7	100%	5.6	23.1%	13.2%	9.9%	3.4%	5.20	5.08	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	91	384	92	46	13	100%	5.7	23.9%	11.9%	12.0%	3.4%	4.96	4.84	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	118	498	121	58	17	100%	5.9	24.4%	11.7%	12.7%	3.4%	4.84	4.77	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	21	21	125	528	128	61	18	100%	6.0	24.3%	11.6%	12.7%	3.5%	4.81	4.80	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	21	21	127	536	130	63	19	100%	6.0	24.2%	11.8%	12.4%	3.6%	4.87	4.90	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	123	519	124	62	19	100%	6.2	23.9%	12.0%	11.9%	3.7%	4.97	5.04	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	118	498	117	61	20	100%	5.9	23.6%	12.3%	11.3%	4.0%	5.14	5.23	-0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	111	469	109	59	20	100%	6.2	23.2%	12.7%	10.5%	4.2%	5.34	5.46	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		145	145	863	3643	870	440	134	100%	6.0	23.9%	12.1%	11.8%	3.7%	5.00	4.63	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	202	102	31	100%	6.0	23.9%	12.1%	11.8%	3.7%	5.00	4.63	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		29	28	118	499	74	57	9	97%	4.1	14.8%	11.4%	3.4%	1.9%	3.65	4.34	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	47	200	843	124	96	16	97%	4.1	14.8%	11.4%	3.4%	1.9%	3.65	4.34	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aiden May (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	21.8%	15.3%	3.0%	—	4.63	23.9%	11.7%	403	-0.59	—	—	—
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	89
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	80
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	80
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	79
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	79
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	78
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	78
Blake Whitney R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP	4.11	19.1%	16.1%	1.1%	.338	6.22	25.6%	13.5%	33	+2.11	3.46	268	78
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	78
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	77
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	77
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	77
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	77
Evan Johnson R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP	4.42	15.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.287	4.56	25.7%	8.6%	65	+0.14	4.42	103	77
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	76
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	76
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	76
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	76
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.81	22.5%	9.1%	231	-0.01	3.75	326	75
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	122	23.8%	12.2%	1.22	4.75
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45