Ryan Forcucci
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126116vR 107
ERA4.71
FIP4.71
K%21.6%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%10.4%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 8 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 8.2% | 41.0% | -32.8% | 0.0% | 13.89 | 7.60 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 56 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.6% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.6% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.76 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 73 | 332 | 64 | 54 | 8 | — | — | 19.3% | 16.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 6.17 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 60 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 61 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 58 | 246 | 56 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 55 | 231 | 52 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 51 | 216 | 47 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.88 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 40 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 50 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 53 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 51 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 48 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 44 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 4.94 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 64 | 379 | 1600 | 362 | 161 | 52 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.25 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 85 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 8 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 8.2% | 41.0% | -32.8% | 0.0% | 13.89 | 7.60 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 137 | 200 | 1234 | 101 | 506 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 8.2% | 41.0% | -32.8% | 0.0% | 13.89 | 7.60 | -5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Forcucci (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.71 | 21.6% | 11.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.43 | 22.7% | 12.8% | 191 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Logan Boyer R 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.79 | 17.0% | 12.7% | 4.6% | .306 | 3.65 | 25.0% | 12.7% | 27 | -2.14 | 3.65 | 121 | 76 |
| Jared Ruxer R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .333 | 4.68 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 240 | +0.52 | 3.38 | 270 | 76 |
| Michael Grove R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.46 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .409 | 5.62 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 176 | +1.16 | 3.54 | 377 | 76 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 75 |
| Dane Acker R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.44 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 3.7% | .284 | 4.44 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 215 | -1.00 | 4.23 | 257 | 72 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 70 |
| Leonardo Pestana R 2028 · 5.53 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.53 | 21.5% | 13.1% | 4.7% | .324 | 5.35 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 66 | -0.18 | 3.61 | 155 | 69 |
| James Proctor R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.35 | 14.0% | 1.5% | 48 | +0.33 | 4.02 | 109 | 67 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 65 |
| Sam Whiting R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.17 | 14.6% | 12.3% | 1.4% | .320 | 5.68 | 15.0% | -0.1% | 80 | +1.51 | 4.17 | 152 | 65 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.09 | 18.4% | 15.9% | 1.0% | .291 | 3.56 | 15.6% | 5.1% | 35 | -0.53 | 3.56 | 112 | 64 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 64 |
| Lyon Richardson R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 23.7% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .299 | 4.16 | 19.4% | 6.9% | 247 | -0.30 | 3.84 | 542 | 64 |
| Alex McFarlane R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.91 | 21.9% | 19.2% | 2.2% | .344 | 4.02 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 108 | -0.89 | 3.64 | 159 | 64 |
| Will Bednar R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.57 | 20.5% | 14.1% | 4.4% | .173 | 4.70 | 26.6% | 6.3% | 95 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 172 | 64 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .361 | 4.31 | 24.8% | 10.9% | 167 | +0.08 | 3.30 | 323 | 63 |
| Manuel Espinoza R 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.29 | 17.7% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 275 | 63 |
| Carlos Duran R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.6% | 1.8% | .348 | 3.88 | 23.0% | 5.2% | 100 | -0.00 | 2.79 | 356 | 63 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 63 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 60 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 1.21 | 4.57 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |