Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.75 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.77 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 23 | 23 | 83 | 394 | 79 | 56 | 1 | 100% | 3.6 | 14.8% | 16.8% | -1.9% | 0.4% | 4.99 | 4.18 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 23 | 23 | 83 | 394 | 79 | 56 | 1 | 100% | 3.6 | 20.1% | 14.2% | 5.8% | 0.3% | 4.99 | 3.38 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 104 | 477 | 80 | 64 | 23 | 100% | 4.0 | 13.0% | 15.3% | -2.3% | 6.6% | 6.49 | 7.54 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 104 | 477 | 80 | 64 | 23 | 100% | 4.0 | 16.8% | 13.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.49 | 6.28 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 22 | 15 | 62 | 294 | 60 | 49 | 9 | 68% | 2.8 | 15.7% | 19.2% | -3.5% | 3.7% | 7.69 | 6.23 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 22 | 15 | 62 | 294 | 60 | 49 | 9 | 68% | 2.8 | 20.4% | 16.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 7.69 | 5.42 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 38 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 52 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 14.3% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 3.06 | 3.89 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 38 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 52 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 1.0% | 3.06 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 43 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 50 | 40 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.2% | 18.6% | -1.5% | 3.6% | 3.20 | 5.98 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 43 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 50 | 40 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.2% | 16.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 3.20 | 4.38 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 15 | 0 | 21 | 102 | 28 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.2% | 24.8% | -2.6% | 4.7% | 7.71 | 6.95 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SD | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 51 | 57 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 19.4% | -2.2% | 3.0% | 6.13 | 6.13 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 19.4% | -2.2% | 3.0% | 6.13 | 6.13 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | SD | — | — | 91 | 398 | 79 | 80 | 13 | — | — | 19.8% | 20.2% | -0.4% | 3.2% | 6.50 | 6.32 | -1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | SD | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.2% | 19.4% | -2.2% | 3.0% | 6.13 | 5.75 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 53 | 54 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 18.3% | -0.3% | 3.0% | 5.93 | 5.92 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SD | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 54 | 52 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 17.7% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 5.83 | 5.84 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SD | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 52 | 49 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 17.4% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 5.81 | 5.85 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 24 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 18.3% | -0.3% | 3.0% | 5.93 | 5.92 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SD | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 34 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 17.7% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 5.83 | 5.84 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SD | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 40 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 17.4% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 5.81 | 5.85 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 0 | 126 | 534 | 98 | 95 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 17.8% | 0.6% | 3.1% | 5.85 | 5.49 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 150 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 17.8% | 0.6% | 3.1% | 5.85 | 5.49 | -0.2 | ||
| Career | — | 170 | 67 | 376 | 1716 | 274 | 295 | 60 | 39% | 2.2 | 16.0% | 17.2% | -1.2% | 3.5% | 5.45 | 5.84 | -1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 90 | 36 | 200 | 912 | 146 | 157 | 32 | 39% | 2.2 | 16.0% | 17.2% | -1.2% | 3.5% | 5.45 | 5.84 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Dalquist (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.13 | 17.2% | 19.4% | 3.0% | — | 5.87 | 18.3% | 0.5% | 206 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Brink R 2024 · 5.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.96 | 18.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 132 | 78 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.04 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .270 | 3.47 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 42 | -1.57 | 3.47 | 146 | 77 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 77 |
| Tyler Bradt R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.09 | 19.0% | 18.7% | 2.2% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 135 | 77 |
| Blake Hickman R 2025 · 6.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.54 | 12.9% | 17.8% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 156 | 77 |
| Clate Schmidt R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.61 | 13.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 160 | 76 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | .320 | 5.49 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | +0.14 | 5.17 | 116 | 76 |
| Carlos Polanco R 2024 · 5.37 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.37 | 13.9% | 20.0% | 1.7% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 276 | 76 |
| Brady Schanuel R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.65 | 17.9% | 23.5% | 2.0% | .200 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 132 | 75 |
| Josh Harlow R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.71 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 107 | 75 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 74 |
| Julian Arballo R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 74 |
| Drake Fellows R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.70 | 17.1% | 20.4% | 2.7% | .367 | 4.86 | 16.3% | 5.6% | 215 | -0.84 | 4.58 | 226 | 74 |
| Josh Hansell R 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.18 | 17.6% | 16.1% | 2.8% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 169 | 73 |
| Nicholas Regalado R 2024 · 5.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.62 | 15.0% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 132 | 73 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 73 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 73 |
| Robbie Peto R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 73 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2028 · 6.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.66 | 12.4% | 14.8% | 5.0% | .314 | 4.38 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 70 | -2.28 | 3.26 | 118 | 73 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.06 | 18.0% | 16.1% | 2.6% | .229 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 142 | -0.79 | 3.89 | 272 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 18.0% | 18.2% | 1.18 | 5.93 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |