Garrett Edwards
P
Montgomery Biscuits
+1.2
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 218 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.6 · 2029
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%12.8%
IP107
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.6peak
2029
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 7 | 6 | 13 | 55 | 14 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.77 | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 22 | 22 | 107 | 425 | 102 | 27 | 8 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 2.78 | 3.86 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 2 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 11 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 107 | 452 | 96 | 37 | 13 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 118 | 490 | 107 | 41 | 16 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.24 | 3.94 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 110 | 41 | 15 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.26 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 117 | 43 | 16 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.24 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 130 | 550 | 120 | 44 | 16 | 21.9% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 130 | 550 | 120 | 45 | 16 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.28 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 127 | 538 | 117 | 44 | 16 | 21.7% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.32 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 124 | 522 | 112 | 43 | 16 | 21.5% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.38 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 119 | 504 | 107 | 42 | 16 | 21.2% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 101 | 41 | 15 | 21.0% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 95 | 40 | 15 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 89 | 39 | 15 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 82 | 38 | 14 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 91 | 386 | 75 | 36 | 14 | 19.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 5.01 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 68 | 35 | 13 | 19.0% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 5.15 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 30 | 131 | 518 | 104 | 39 | 15 | 20.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 2.82 | 3.94 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 46 | 200 | 793 | 159 | 60 | 23 | 20.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 2.82 | 3.94 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Edwards (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.25 | 21.8% | 13.7% | 378 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 93 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 92 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 91 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 91 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.68 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.69 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.01 | 3.68 | 523 | 91 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 90 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 90 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 90 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 90 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 90 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 89 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 88 |
| Aaron Brown R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .337 | 5.97 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 186 | +1.89 | 4.08 | 418 | 88 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 88 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.02 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.47 | 3.55 | 252 | 88 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 88 |
| Mitchell Kilkenny R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.64 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 5.79 | 13.4% | 5.1% | 124 | +2.15 | 3.18 | 237 | 88 |
| Chris Devenski R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .298 | 2.89 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 236 | -1.19 | 2.10 | 608 | 88 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 87 |
| Gabe Mosser R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.7% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .346 | 4.58 | 14.9% | 6.9% | 104 | +0.81 | 3.35 | 541 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.6 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.3 | $12M | +$10M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.1 | $11M | +$7M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.0 | $10M | +$5M |
| Totals | $14M | $74M | +$60M | ||