Garrett Edwards
P
Montgomery Biscuits
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 218 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.0 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 102
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
K%18.2%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%10.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 6 | 13 | 55 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 86% | 1.9 | 25.5% | 7.3% | 18.2% | 1.8% | 2.77 | 2.87 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 6 | 13 | 55 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 86% | 1.9 | 25.5% | 7.3% | 18.2% | 1.8% | 2.77 | 2.87 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 22 | 22 | 107 | 425 | 102 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 2.78 | 3.97 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 22 | 22 | 107 | 425 | 102 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.0% | 6.4% | 17.6% | 1.9% | 2.78 | 2.92 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 16 | 16 | 74 | 309 | 52 | 25 | 14 | 100% | 4.6 | 13.6% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.60 | 6.06 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 50 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 139 | 583 | 102 | 45 | 22 | — | — | 17.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 4.54 | 5.32 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.2% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.06 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 76 | 320 | 61 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.1% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 76 | 320 | 63 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 75 | 315 | 63 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.8% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 27 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.1% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 24 | 143 | 605 | 118 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 3.98 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 165 | 64 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.6% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 45 | 44 | 194 | 789 | 135 | 63 | 29 | 98% | 4.3 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 3.47 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 45 | 200 | 812 | 139 | 64 | 30 | 98% | 4.3 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 3.47 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Edwards (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.40 | 19.5% | 12.0% | 226 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 86 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 85 |
| Mason Erla R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.95 | 14.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .309 | 4.99 | 14.9% | 4.6% | 124 | +1.04 | 3.12 | 206 | 85 |
| Connor Noland R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.78 | 14.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.26 | 16.6% | 8.0% | 315 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 423 | 84 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 84 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 84 |
| Ryan Bergert R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 16.9% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .317 | 4.33 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.61 | 428 | 84 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 82 |
| Gabe Mosser R 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.79 | 17.7% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .346 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 6.9% | 104 | +0.84 | 3.79 | 606 | 82 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.90 | 15.1% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .322 | 4.72 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 76 | -0.18 | 4.72 | 146 | 82 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 81 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 81 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.66 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .298 | 5.01 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.20 | 416 | 81 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.67 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.85 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.18 | 3.67 | 523 | 81 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 81 |
| Jake Walters R 2025 · 3.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.46 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 1.2% | .260 | 3.82 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 97 | +0.36 | 3.46 | 261 | 81 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.53 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .278 | 5.41 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.96 | 260 | 80 |
| Drew McDaniel R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.72 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 4.0% | .307 | 6.57 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 61 | +1.85 | 4.72 | 200 | 80 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.77 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .279 | 4.10 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 216 | +0.33 | 3.74 | 459 | 80 |
| Mitchell Kilkenny R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.46 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 2.1% | .290 | 5.81 | 13.4% | 5.1% | 124 | +2.35 | 3.18 | 237 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 75 | 19.2% | 7.5% | 1.14 | 4.43 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |