Garrett Edwards — OGILVIE

Garrett Edwards P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 218 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.7 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION121 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%18.2%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	13	55	14	4	1	86%	1.9	25.5%	7.3%	18.2%	1.8%	2.77	2.87	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	13	55	14	4	1	86%	1.9	25.5%	7.3%	18.2%	1.8%	2.77	2.87	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	6	13	55	14	4	1	86%	1.9	25.5%	7.3%	18.2%	1.8%	2.77	2.87	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	22	107	425	102	27	8	100%	4.9	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	2.5%	2.78	3.85	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	22	107	425	102	27	8	100%	4.9	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	2.5%	2.78	3.85	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	22	107	425	102	27	8	100%	4.9	24.0%	6.4%	17.6%	1.9%	2.78	2.92	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	121	505	88	38	23	100%	4.8	14.1%	8.3%	5.8%	5.5%	4.55	5.96	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	121	505	88	38	23	100%	4.8	14.1%	8.3%	5.8%	5.5%	4.55	5.96	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	TB	25	25	121	505	88	38	23	100%	4.8	17.4%	7.5%	9.9%	4.6%	4.55	5.08	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TB	1	1	7	29	5	2	1	100%	6.8	18.2%	7.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	127	534	93	40	24	—	—	17.5%	7.5%	10.0%	4.5%	4.54	5.88	-1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	120	505	96	36	15	100%	6.0	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	2.9%	4.38	4.35	+0.8
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	120	505	98	36	15	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.35	4.32	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	118	498	97	36	15	100%	5.9	19.6%	7.2%	12.3%	2.9%	4.36	4.36	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	114	483	94	36	15	100%	6.0	19.5%	7.4%	12.1%	3.0%	4.41	4.44	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	109	461	89	35	15	100%	6.1	19.3%	7.6%	11.6%	3.2%	4.51	4.57	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	103	434	82	34	15	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	3.4%	4.65	4.75	+0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	96	404	75	33	15	100%	6.0	18.5%	8.3%	10.2%	3.6%	4.83	4.95	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	52	220	42	16	6	100%	5.8	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.0%	4.43	4.40	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	80	338	66	24	10	100%	6.2	19.4%	7.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.40	4.37	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	92	388	76	28	12	100%	6.1	19.6%	7.2%	12.3%	3.0%	4.41	4.41	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	96	405	79	30	13	100%	6.0	19.5%	7.4%	12.1%	3.1%	4.46	4.49	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	96	405	78	31	13	100%	6.0	19.3%	7.6%	11.6%	3.3%	4.56	4.62	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	92	388	73	31	14	100%	6.1	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	3.5%	4.71	4.81	+0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	88	372	69	31	14	100%	5.9	18.5%	8.3%	10.2%	3.7%	4.89	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		100	100	597	2519	483	190	82	100%	6.0	19.2%	7.6%	11.6%	3.2%	4.56	4.22	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	162	64	27	100%	6.0	19.2%	7.6%	11.6%	3.2%	4.56	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		54	53	241	985	164	77	39	98%	4.5	16.6%	7.8%	8.8%	4.0%	3.66	4.88	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	819	136	64	33	98%	4.5	16.6%	7.8%	8.8%	4.0%	3.66	4.88	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Edwards (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	18.2%	7.2%	2.9%	—	4.34	19.3%	12.2%	357	-0.09	—	—	—
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	90
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.90	14.7%	5.0%	124	+0.79	3.11	206	87
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	86
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	86
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	85
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	84
Blake Adams R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	18.6%	7.3%	1.7%	.333	4.00	17.0%	10.5%	306	+0.60	3.36	389	84
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	83
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	83
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	83
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.95	17.6%	8.5%	323	+0.34	4.35	416	83
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	651	83
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.66	18.1%	11.3%	332	+0.97	3.69	523	83
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	82
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	82
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	82
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	8.9%	177	+0.79	3.38	264	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	107	19.1%	7.5%	1.20	4.48
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01