Blake Adams

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2029

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEMiLBFA 2034

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	23	22	127	2.91	2.67	23.6%	4.9%	—	K 18.4% · BB 5.6% · FIP 3.36
2025	24	AACOL	30	16	90	5.48	4.22	22.6%	6.8%	—	K 18.3% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.57
2026	25	MIX3 levels	30	2	90	6.72	4.23	16.2%	7.4%	0.3	K 14.0% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.31
2027PROJ	26	MLBCOL	44	0	46	4.68	4.68	15.0%	6.6%	-0.1
2028PROJ77% MLB	27	MLBCOL	50	0	52	4.91	4.93	15.7%	6.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ84% MLB	28	MLBCOL	53	0	56	4.79	4.72	18.0%	6.2%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.8M2032Arb-2$0.7M2033Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control55Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsP.J. Walters (age 25) · Brad Lincoln (age 26) · Carlos Torres (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%15.0%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	5	0	5	21	4	3	0	0%	1.1	19.0%	14.3%	4.8%	0.0%	1.69	3.30	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	5	0	5	21	4	3	0	0%	1.1	19.0%	14.3%	4.8%	0.0%	1.69	3.29	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	83	347	86	22	5	100%	5.2	18.6%	7.3%	11.3%	1.7%	4.21	3.40	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	83	347	86	22	5	100%	5.2	24.8%	6.3%	18.4%	1.4%	4.21	2.61	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	127	530	125	26	9	96%	5.5	18.4%	5.6%	12.8%	2.0%	2.91	3.36	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	127	530	125	26	9	96%	5.5	18.4%	5.6%	12.8%	2.0%	2.91	3.36	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	127	530	125	26	9	96%	5.5	23.6%	4.9%	18.7%	1.7%	2.91	2.67	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	30	16	90	381	86	26	15	53%	3.0	18.3%	7.5%	10.8%	3.8%	5.48	4.57	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	30	16	90	381	86	26	15	53%	3.0	18.3%	7.5%	10.8%	3.8%	5.48	4.57	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	30	16	90	381	86	26	15	53%	3.0	22.6%	6.8%	15.7%	3.9%	5.48	4.22	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	2	90	408	66	30	11	7%	3.0	14.0%	6.6%	7.4%	2.8%	6.72	4.31	+0.3
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	2	90	408	66	30	11	7%	3.0	14.0%	6.6%	7.4%	2.8%	6.72	4.31	+0.3
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	2	90	408	66	30	11	7%	3.0	16.2%	7.4%	8.8%	2.7%	6.72	4.23	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	9	0	2	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	22.2%	-22.2%	11.1%	45.00	22.10	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	COL	44	0	46	194	29	13	6	0%	1.0	15.0%	6.6%	8.4%	3.0%	4.68	4.68	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	COL	64	0	67	284	44	19	9	0%	1.1	15.7%	6.8%	8.9%	3.0%	4.66	4.68	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	COL	63	0	66	279	50	17	9	0%	1.0	18.0%	6.2%	11.8%	3.1%	4.53	4.46	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	COL	57	0	60	255	46	17	8	0%	1.1	18.1%	6.6%	11.5%	3.3%	4.56	4.58	-0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	COL	52	0	54	228	41	16	8	0%	1.0	17.8%	7.0%	10.9%	3.5%	4.67	4.75	-0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	COL	45	0	48	201	35	15	7	0%	1.1	17.4%	7.3%	10.1%	3.7%	4.84	4.96	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	COL	50	0	52	220	34	15	8	0%	1.0	15.7%	6.8%	8.9%	3.5%	4.91	4.93	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	COL	53	0	56	236	43	15	9	0%	1.1	18.0%	6.2%	11.8%	3.6%	4.79	4.72	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	COL	50	0	53	224	40	15	8	0%	1.1	18.1%	6.6%	11.5%	3.8%	4.83	4.85	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	COL	47	0	49	207	37	14	8	0%	1.0	17.8%	7.0%	10.9%	4.0%	4.96	5.04	-0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	COL	42	0	44	186	32	14	8	0%	1.0	17.4%	7.3%	10.1%	4.3%	5.15	5.27	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		241	0	253	1074	186	74	41	0%	1.1	17.3%	6.9%	10.4%	3.9%	5.08	4.63	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	848	147	58	32	0%	1.0	17.3%	6.9%	10.4%	3.9%	5.08	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		104	56	396	1687	293	114	43	54%	3.8	17.4%	6.7%	10.6%	2.5%	4.62	3.87	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	28	200	853	148	57	22	54%	3.8	17.4%	6.7%	10.6%	2.5%	4.62	3.87	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 61 IPFIP 4.06 → 4.28 (+0.22)K% 16.2% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.21%	—	×0.860	13.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.93%	—	×0.900	7.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.66%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.06 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 27 IPFIP 3.72 → 4.36 (+0.64)K% 17.4% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.43%	—	×0.810	14.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.59%	—	×1.100	5.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.30%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.72 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 90 IPFIP 4.22 → 4.57 (+0.35)K% 22.6% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.57%	—	×0.810	18.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×1.100	7.51%
HR / BF /BF	3.94%	÷1.255	×1.200	3.76%

Result: FIP 4.22 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Spokane Indians · 101 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.46 (+0.68)K% 22.7% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.75%	—	×0.770	17.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.45%	—	×1.150	6.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.66%	÷1.086	×1.250	1.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHartford Yard Goats · 26 IPFIP 2.20 → 2.98 (+0.78)K% 26.9% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.85%	—	×0.810	21.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.78%	—	×1.100	3.06%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷0.916	×1.200	2.43%

Result: FIP 2.20 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFresno Grizzlies · 45 IPFIP 0.92 → 1.64 (+0.73)K% 30.1% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.11%	—	×0.740	22.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.84%	—	×1.180	3.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.186	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 0.92 → 1.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Spokane Indians · 38 IPFIP 4.33 → 5.21 (+0.88)K% 19.3% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.30%	—	×0.770	14.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.94%	—	×1.150	11.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.92%	÷1.047	×1.250	3.49%

Result: FIP 4.33 → 5.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Rockies · 5 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.27 (+0.97)K% 19.0% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.680	12.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.250	17.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.918	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Adams (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	15.0%	6.6%	3.0%	—	4.57	17.2%	10.7%	194	-0.11	—	—	—
P.J. Walters R 2010 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.1%	7.8%	4.2%	.293	5.05	14.1%	5.6%	101	+0.12	3.97	230	79
Brad Lincoln R 2011 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP-	3.78	13.7%	5.7%	2.1%	.301	4.23	22.3%	13.9%	120	+0.45	3.78	280	76
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	76
Max Beatty R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	13.2%	6.4%	2.0%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	117	74
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	73
Zac Kristofak R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	26	SP-	4.67	11.2%	5.8%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	168	73
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.82	13.1%	3.7%	116	+0.21	2.84	310	73
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	72
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	72
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	71
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	71
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	70
David Pauley R 2008 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	16.4%	7.5%	3.0%	.429	4.30	13.8%	7.3%	165	+0.00	3.51	210	70
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.16	145	69
Sam Lewis R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	26	SW	4.33	16.7%	9.6%	2.6%	.323	3.41	21.0%	10.2%	48	-0.92	2.21	224	69
Junior Rincon R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	14.5%	8.7%	2.5%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	113	69
Kevin Miranda R 2024 · 4.86 FIP	25	SP-	4.86	13.0%	7.4%	3.5%	.212	6.37	14.1%	4.1%	27	+1.51	3.76	153	69
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	69
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	69
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	61	16.8%	6.8%	1.27	4.76
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
James Russell ('16)	1.7	56	17.0%	7.0%	1.16	4.09
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*