Blake Adams P Albuquerque Isotopes
Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%18.0%
BB%6.8%
K-BB%11.1%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP
K: -3.3 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-3KBB: +1.8 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+2BBCONTACT: -4.3 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-4CONTACTSTAM: +17.6 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+18STAMTotal WAR: +1.25 (130 IP)+1.2WAR
0.00.51.00.10.40.3+$5M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
STUF4545
CTRL5555
CMD5050
K†4045
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1M+$0.4M
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.8M $1M +$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202221ROKACL Rockies505214300%1.119.0%14.3%4.8%0.0%1.693.30
202221ROKACL Rockies505214300%1.119.0%14.3%4.8%0.0%1.693.29
202322MIX2 levels16168334786225100%5.218.6%7.3%11.3%1.6%4.213.36
202322MIX2 levels16168334786225100%5.224.8%6.3%18.4%1.4%4.212.61
202423MIX2 levels232212753012526996%5.518.4%5.6%12.8%2.0%2.913.33
202423MIX2 levels232212753012526996%5.523.6%4.9%18.7%1.7%2.912.67
202524AAHartford Yard Goats30169038186261553%3.018.3%7.5%10.8%3.1%5.484.22
202524AAHartford Yard Goats30169038186261553%3.022.6%6.8%15.7%3.9%5.484.22
▸ 2026 Season
202625AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes182602705220911%3.316.5%7.9%8.6%3.8%6.454.78-0.2
ROS25MLBCOL67070297532090%1.118.0%6.8%11.1%2.9%4.404.40+0.3
ROS25MLBCOL707305210%1.018.0%6.8%11.1%3.3%4.644.64-0.0
2026 TOT25MLBCOL130567105401818.6%7.1%11.5%3.1%5.344.58+1.3
2026 FULL25MLBCOL73052118.0%6.8%11.1%3.3%4.644.27+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202726MLBCOL10107029756219100%7.018.8%7.0%11.7%2.9%4.384.37+0.3
202827MLBCOL996929356219100%7.719.1%7.3%11.8%2.9%4.394.40+0.3
202726MLBCOL553414427105100%6.818.8%7.0%11.7%3.3%4.624.61-0.0
202827MLBCOL664619437147100%7.719.1%7.3%11.8%3.4%4.644.65-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career18118736769261261%4.818.9%7.1%11.7%3.4%4.634.26+0.9
/ 200 IP4025200844159602862%5.018.9%7.1%11.7%3.4%4.634.26+2.7
Career925636615492801083861%4.018.1%7.0%11.1%2.5%4.403.81+6.8
/ 200 IP5031200846153592161%4.018.1%7.0%11.1%2.5%4.403.81+3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Blake Adams (OGILVIE) 4.40 18.0%6.8%2.9% 4.38 18.9%11.8%140 -0.02
Steven Bruce R 2026 · 3.70 FIP 25 SW 3.70 14.9%5.0%2.2%.300 3.62 15.0%9.8%94 -0.08 3.62 148 88
Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.38 FIP 25 SP- 3.38 16.5%6.5%1.5%.296 4.26 15.9%8.6%90 +0.88 3.38 138 86
Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP 25 SP- 3.37 20.3%8.8%1.6%.278 5.10 15.8%6.7%73 +1.73 3.37 119 85
Jason Forjet R 2026 · 3.33 FIP 25 SP- 3.33 17.0%5.3%1.8%.290 4.39 15.9%10.4%102 +1.06 3.33 197 85
Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP 25 SW 3.89 19.0%7.3%2.7%.331 5.46 20.8%10.6%47 +1.57 3.89 141 84
Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.31 FIP 25 SW 4.31 16.9%8.6%2.8%.338 3.01 22.4%12.3%71 -1.30 3.01 176 84
Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.44 FIP 25 SW 3.44 17.1%4.4%2.2%.312 3.72 16.9%9.5%198 +0.28 3.44 302 83
Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP 25 SW 4.06 18.9%9.0%2.6%.311 4.48 17.3%3.8%141 +0.42 3.63 281 83
Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP 25 SP- 3.81 19.2%5.7%2.9%.311 6.73 17.6%-0.7%51 +2.92 3.81 106 81
Chase Centala R 2025 · 4.16 FIP 24 SP- 4.16 17.4%6.6%3.1%.361 4.16 124 81
Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.16 FIP 25 SP- 4.16 14.1%7.2%2.5%.320 4.70 13.0%2.6%74 +0.54 3.64 204 81
Kyle Smith R 2025 · 3.33 FIP 24 SP- 3.33 15.2%5.7%1.4%.325 3.33 159 81
Ryan Etsell R 2024 · 3.79 FIP 23 SP- 3.79 14.7%6.4%2.0%.319 3.79 110 80
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.77 FIP 25 SP- 3.77 20.3%8.7%2.4%.309 3.63 21.4%13.2%123 -0.14 1.87 232 80
Brandon White R 2026 · 3.90 FIP 25 SP- 3.90 14.4%7.7%1.9%.285 4.08 24.9%18.7%71 +0.18 3.90 264 80
Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP 25 SP- 4.55 16.7%6.5%3.7%.287 3.95 15.0%7.6%193 -0.60 3.53 289 79
Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.37 FIP 25 SW 4.37 16.2%10.3%2.4%.290 4.81 11.8%0.5%58 +0.44 4.37 160 79
Logan Verrett R 2026 · 3.75 FIP 25 SW 3.75 18.5%6.7%2.5%.277 5.30 15.8%6.3%164 +1.55 3.73 550 79
TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.41 FIP 25 SW 4.41 21.0%9.6%3.4%.273 4.29 23.1%14.9%172 -0.12 3.36 432 79
Bryce Morrow R 2028 · 4.48 FIP 27 SP- 4.48 12.8%7.9%2.7%.316 5.59 10.1%-0.2%50 +1.11 4.48 125 79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION37018.6%7.0%1.124.39
Josh Winckowski ('24)37718.3%8.2%1.134.21
Joe Biagini ('19)48119.1%7.8%1.284.86
Chris Rusin ('18)48917.9%7.1%1.014.43
Fernando Salas ('18)45922.5%6.6%1.224.42
Blaine Hardy ('19)55018.6%7.7%1.113.91
JC Ramírez ('17)38317.0%7.7%1.304.33