Blake Adams
P
Hartford Yard Goats
+0.9
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2027
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.2%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%12.5%
IP101
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.69 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 16 | 16 | 83 | 347 | 86 | 22 | 5 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.7% | 4.21 | 3.41 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 23 | 22 | 127 | 530 | 125 | 26 | 9 | 18.4% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 2.91 | 3.36 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 30 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 86 | 26 | 15 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 5.48 | 4.69 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 3 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 7.71 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 86 | 32 | 13 | 20.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 108 | 456 | 92 | 35 | 15 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.16 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 94 | 35 | 14 | 20.7% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.40 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 111 | 468 | 97 | 36 | 15 | 20.8% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 111 | 469 | 98 | 36 | 15 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 95 | 36 | 15 | 20.7% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 91 | 35 | 14 | 20.5% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 102 | 429 | 87 | 34 | 14 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.60 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 82 | 34 | 14 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 77 | 33 | 14 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 72 | 32 | 13 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | COL | 15 | 15 | 83 | 352 | 67 | 31 | 13 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 5.01 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 67 | 27 | 13 | 20.5% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 4.90 | 4.88 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 37 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 61 | 26 | 12 | 20.0% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 4.97 | 5.02 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 77 | 54 | 313 | 1310 | 242 | 90 | 34 | 18.5% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 3.83 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 35 | 200 | 837 | 155 | 58 | 22 | 18.5% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 3.83 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blake Adams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 20.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.41 | 20.8% | 13.1% | 330 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 93 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 93 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .287 | 3.79 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.78 | 3.40 | 289 | 91 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 90 |
| Hayden Minton R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 89 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.76 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.47 | 3.22 | 907 | 88 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2024 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 88 |
| Alex Colomé R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 88 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.29 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.85 | 15.7% | 4.1% | 181 | +0.56 | 3.52 | 395 | 88 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 87 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 87 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 87 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.36 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 1.9% | .290 | 4.48 | 15.9% | 10.4% | 102 | +1.12 | 3.36 | 197 | 86 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .277 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.3% | 164 | +1.27 | 3.83 | 550 | 86 |
| Ariel Peña R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 86 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 86 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 86 |
| Wes Parsons R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.56 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 1.9% | .274 | 4.00 | 18.5% | 6.1% | 91 | +0.44 | 3.00 | 483 | 85 |
| Mason Adams R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 229 | 85 |
| Garrett Stallings R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.37 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .327 | 4.42 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 179 | +0.05 | 3.69 | 531 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $9M | $33M | +$24M | ||