Blake Adams
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%18.0%
BB%6.8%
K-BB%11.1%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 14.3% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 1.69 | 3.30 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 14.3% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 1.69 | 3.29 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 83 | 347 | 86 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 1.6% | 4.21 | 3.36 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 83 | 347 | 86 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.8% | 6.3% | 18.4% | 1.4% | 4.21 | 2.61 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 127 | 530 | 125 | 26 | 9 | 96% | 5.5 | 18.4% | 5.6% | 12.8% | 2.0% | 2.91 | 3.33 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 127 | 530 | 125 | 26 | 9 | 96% | 5.5 | 23.6% | 4.9% | 18.7% | 1.7% | 2.91 | 2.67 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 30 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 86 | 26 | 15 | 53% | 3.0 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 5.48 | 4.22 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 30 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 86 | 26 | 15 | 53% | 3.0 | 22.6% | 6.8% | 15.7% | 3.9% | 5.48 | 4.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 18 | 2 | 60 | 270 | 52 | 20 | 9 | 11% | 3.3 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 6.45 | 4.78 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 297 | 53 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 130 | 567 | 105 | 40 | 18 | — | — | 18.6% | 7.1% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 5.34 | 4.58 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 7 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 18.0% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.27 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 70 | 297 | 56 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 7.0 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 9 | 9 | 69 | 293 | 56 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 7.7 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 5 | 5 | 34 | 144 | 27 | 10 | 5 | 100% | 6.8 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 6 | 6 | 46 | 194 | 37 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 7.7 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 11 | 87 | 367 | 69 | 26 | 12 | 61% | 4.8 | 18.9% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.26 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 25 | 200 | 844 | 159 | 60 | 28 | 62% | 5.0 | 18.9% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 92 | 56 | 366 | 1549 | 280 | 108 | 38 | 61% | 4.0 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.40 | 3.81 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 31 | 200 | 846 | 153 | 59 | 21 | 61% | 4.0 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.40 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blake Adams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.38 | 18.9% | 11.8% | 140 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Steven Bruce R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.70 | 14.9% | 5.0% | 2.2% | .300 | 3.62 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 94 | -0.08 | 3.62 | 148 | 88 |
| Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.38 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.26 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 90 | +0.88 | 3.38 | 138 | 86 |
| Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 85 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.33 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 1.8% | .290 | 4.39 | 15.9% | 10.4% | 102 | +1.06 | 3.33 | 197 | 85 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 84 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 84 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.44 | 17.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | .312 | 3.72 | 16.9% | 9.5% | 198 | +0.28 | 3.44 | 302 | 83 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 83 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 81 |
| Chase Centala R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 81 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.1% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .320 | 4.70 | 13.0% | 2.6% | 74 | +0.54 | 3.64 | 204 | 81 |
| Kyle Smith R 2025 · 3.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.33 | 15.2% | 5.7% | 1.4% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 159 | 81 |
| Ryan Etsell R 2024 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.79 | 14.7% | 6.4% | 2.0% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 110 | 80 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 80 |
| Brandon White R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.90 | 14.4% | 7.7% | 1.9% | .285 | 4.08 | 24.9% | 18.7% | 71 | +0.18 | 3.90 | 264 | 80 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 79 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 79 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.75 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .277 | 5.30 | 15.8% | 6.3% | 164 | +1.55 | 3.73 | 550 | 79 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .273 | 4.29 | 23.1% | 14.9% | 172 | -0.12 | 3.36 | 432 | 79 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 18.6% | 7.0% | 1.12 | 4.39 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |