Blake Adams — OGILVIE

Blake Adams P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.4 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION90 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%18.0%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.8M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	5	0	5	21	4	3	0	0%	1.1	19.0%	14.3%	4.8%	0.0%	1.69	3.30	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	5	0	5	21	4	3	0	0%	1.1	19.0%	14.3%	4.8%	0.0%	1.69	3.29	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	83	347	86	22	5	100%	5.2	18.6%	7.3%	11.3%	1.7%	4.21	3.40	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	83	347	86	22	5	100%	5.2	18.6%	7.3%	11.3%	1.7%	4.21	3.40	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	83	347	86	22	5	100%	5.2	24.8%	6.3%	18.4%	1.4%	4.21	2.61	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	127	530	125	26	9	96%	5.5	18.4%	5.6%	12.8%	2.0%	2.91	3.36	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	127	530	125	26	9	96%	5.5	18.4%	5.6%	12.8%	2.0%	2.91	3.36	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	127	530	125	26	9	96%	5.5	23.6%	4.9%	18.7%	1.7%	2.91	2.67	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	30	16	90	381	86	26	15	53%	3.0	18.3%	7.5%	10.8%	3.8%	5.48	4.57	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	30	16	90	381	86	26	15	53%	3.0	18.3%	7.5%	10.8%	3.8%	5.48	4.57	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	30	16	90	381	86	26	15	53%	3.0	22.6%	6.8%	15.7%	3.9%	5.48	4.22	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	9	0	2	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	22.2%	-22.2%	11.1%	45.00	22.10	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	30	2	90	408	66	30	11	7%	3.0	13.6%	6.6%	7.1%	2.8%	6.72	4.33	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	30	2	90	408	66	30	11	7%	3.0	13.6%	6.6%	7.1%	2.8%	6.72	4.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	COL	8	0	27	109	19	5	3	0%	3.4	17.4%	4.6%	12.8%	2.8%	3.62	3.72	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	COL	21	2	61	290	47	23	7	10%	2.9	16.2%	7.9%	8.3%	2.4%	7.48	4.06	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	COL	1	0	1	9	0	2	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	22.2%	-22.2%	11.1%	45.00	12.01	—
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	COL	1	0	1	9	0	2	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	22.2%	-22.2%	11.1%	45.00	12.01	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	COL	6	0	6	27	5	2	1	0%	1.1	18.0%	6.7%	11.3%	3.1%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	COL	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	18.0%	6.7%	11.3%	3.5%	4.74	4.74	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	96	435	71	32	12	—	—	16.3%	7.3%	9.0%	2.7%	6.58	4.34	+0.6
FULL	25	MLB A+C	COL	—	—	7	31	71	32	12	—	—	229.6%	103.1%	126.6%	38.7%	86.69	18.02	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	COL	109	0	114	483	90	32	15	0%	1.0	18.6%	6.7%	11.9%	3.0%	4.44	4.43	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	COL	107	0	113	475	90	33	15	0%	1.1	18.9%	6.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.44	4.46	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	COL	104	0	109	461	87	33	15	0%	1.1	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	3.2%	4.49	4.53	+0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	COL	99	0	104	440	83	32	15	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.3%	11.5%	3.3%	4.58	4.65	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	COL	93	0	98	414	76	31	15	0%	1.1	18.4%	7.6%	10.8%	3.5%	4.73	4.83	-0.3
2032	31	MLB MLE	COL	87	0	91	386	69	31	15	0%	1.1	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	3.8%	4.91	5.03	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	COL	104	0	109	460	86	31	16	0%	1.0	18.6%	6.7%	11.9%	3.5%	4.70	4.69	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	COL	102	0	107	452	85	31	16	0%	1.0	18.9%	6.9%	12.0%	3.6%	4.70	4.72	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	COL	99	0	104	439	83	31	16	0%	1.1	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	3.7%	4.76	4.80	+0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	COL	94	0	99	418	78	31	16	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.3%	11.5%	3.8%	4.86	4.93	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	COL	89	0	93	393	72	30	16	0%	1.0	18.4%	7.6%	10.8%	4.1%	5.03	5.13	-0.3
2032	31	MLB CTX	COL	83	0	87	367	66	29	16	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	4.3%	5.22	5.34	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		577	0	606	2562	475	186	98	0%	1.0	18.5%	7.3%	11.3%	3.8%	4.93	4.56	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	846	157	61	32	0%	1.0	18.5%	7.3%	11.3%	3.8%	4.93	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		104	56	396	1687	291	114	43	54%	3.8	17.3%	6.7%	10.5%	2.5%	4.62	3.88	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	28	200	853	147	57	22	54%	3.8	17.3%	6.7%	10.5%	2.5%	4.62	3.88	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Adams (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	18.0%	6.7%	3.1%	—	4.47	18.8%	11.9%	336	-0.01	—	—	—
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	88
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	87
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	86
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	85
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	83
Kolton Mahoney R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	17.1%	4.4%	2.6%	.312	3.73	16.9%	9.5%	198	+0.11	3.56	302	82
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	81
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	80
Jason Forjet R 2015 · 3.36 FIP	25	SP-	3.36	17.0%	5.3%	1.9%	.290	4.48	15.9%	10.4%	102	+1.12	3.36	197	79
Logan Verrett R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SW	3.81	18.5%	6.7%	2.6%	.277	5.15	15.8%	6.3%	164	+1.34	3.81	550	79
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	79
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	78
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	78
Parker Curry R 2019 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	17.8%	5.4%	4.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	256	78
Kurt Heyer R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	14.1%	6.7%	2.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	178	78
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	78
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	77
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	77
Collin Lowe R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP-	3.62	15.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.292	3.11	15.1%	11.2%	75	-0.51	3.11	165	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	99	18.6%	7.2%	1.27	4.58
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37