Zac Kristofak

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 29 RHP 5'9" / 189 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	A+LAA	34	9	64	3.82	3.34	22.4%	7.1%	—	K 17.2% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.56
2023	25	AALAA	16	6	42	4.07	3.46	19.1%	8.1%	—	K 15.5% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.10
2024	26	MIX2 levels	7	3	21	3.05	4.21	13.6%	8.0%	0.1	K 11.2% · BB 5.8% · FIP 4.67
2025	27	No MLB games played
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBLAA	1	0	1	4.50	4.50	20.2%	8.5%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBLAA	6	0	6	4.59	4.66	20.1%	8.9%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsDiego Moreno (age 29) · Neil Wagner (age 29) · Tyler Sturdevant (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%20.2%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP11

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	38	0	44	199	46	19	3	0%	1.2	17.8%	11.0%	6.8%	2.0%	6.14	4.11	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	38	0	44	199	46	19	3	0%	1.2	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	1.5%	6.14	3.19	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	34	9	64	268	60	19	6	26%	1.9	17.2%	8.2%	9.1%	3.4%	3.82	4.56	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	34	9	64	268	60	19	6	26%	1.9	22.4%	7.1%	15.3%	2.2%	3.82	3.34	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	16	6	42	173	33	14	3	38%	2.6	15.5%	8.9%	6.5%	2.1%	4.07	4.10	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	16	6	42	173	33	14	3	38%	2.6	19.1%	8.1%	11.0%	1.7%	4.07	3.46	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	3	21	88	12	7	2	43%	3.0	11.2%	5.8%	5.3%	3.2%	3.05	4.67	-0.0
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	3	21	88	12	7	2	43%	3.0	11.2%	5.8%	5.3%	3.2%	3.05	4.67	-0.0
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	3	21	88	12	7	2	43%	3.0	13.6%	8.0%	5.7%	2.3%	3.05	4.21	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	2	11	2	2	0	0%	2.0	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.10	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	LAA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	20.2%	8.5%	11.7%	3.0%	4.50	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAA	17	0	18	74	15	7	2	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.9%	11.3%	3.2%	4.59	4.66	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAA	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.9%	11.3%	3.2%	4.59	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	38	8	4	1	0%	1.2	19.6%	11.5%	8.0%	2.3%	3.51	4.16	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		169	0	200	905	189	94	24	0%	1.2	19.6%	11.5%	8.0%	2.3%	3.51	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		95	18	170	728	118	64	20	19%	1.8	16.2%	8.8%	7.4%	2.7%	4.39	4.34	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	21	200	855	139	75	23	19%	1.8	16.2%	8.8%	7.4%	2.7%	4.39	4.34	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 19 IPFIP 4.25 → 4.67 (+0.42)K% 13.0% → 11.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.99%	—	×0.860	11.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.49%	—	×0.900	5.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷0.886	×1.100	3.22%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 4.25 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 42 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.10 (+0.63)K% 19.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.08%	—	×0.810	15.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.09%	—	×1.100	8.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷0.970	×1.200	2.14%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 64 IPFIP 3.34 → 4.56 (+1.23)K% 22.4% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.39%	—	×0.770	17.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.09%	—	×1.150	8.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.24%	÷0.814	×1.250	3.44%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 63).

Result: FIP 3.34 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 44 IPFIP 3.18 → 4.11 (+0.92)K% 23.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.12%	—	×0.770	17.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.55%	—	×1.150	10.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.51%	÷0.923	×1.250	2.04%

Result: FIP 3.18 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zac Kristofak (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	20.2%	8.5%	3.0%	—	4.66	20.1%	11.3%	18	+0.16	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	80
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	79
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	77
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	76
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	75
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	75
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	75
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	75
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	75
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	74
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	74
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	73
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	73
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	73
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	73
Evan Scribner R 2013 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	16.7%	6.1%	2.9%	.271	4.59	26.9%	25.2%	60	+0.53	3.23	136	73
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	73
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	73
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	72
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	72