Ben Jacobs — OGILVIE

Ben Jacobs P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 22 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.6 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%25.8%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%13.7%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4555

CTRL—45

CMD3045

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$11M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	22	19	92	376	132	41	10	86%	4.2	26.8%	12.6%	14.3%	3.3%	3.51	4.25	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	22	19	92	376	132	41	10	86%	4.2	26.8%	12.6%	14.3%	3.3%	3.51	4.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	DET	4	2	17	63	24	6	0	50%	4.2	38.1%	9.5%	28.6%	0.0%	1.08	1.09	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	DET	18	17	76	313	108	35	10	94%	4.2	34.5%	11.2%	23.3%	3.2%	4.04	3.36	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	94	396	104	43	12	100%	5.2	26.2%	10.9%	15.3%	3.0%	4.36	4.28	+0.7
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	96	406	107	41	12	100%	5.7	26.4%	10.2%	16.2%	2.9%	4.24	4.16	+0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	97	411	109	40	12	100%	5.7	26.6%	9.8%	16.8%	2.9%	4.15	4.09	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	97	411	110	40	12	100%	6.1	26.7%	9.7%	17.0%	2.9%	4.10	4.07	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	96	404	108	40	12	100%	6.0	26.7%	9.8%	16.9%	3.0%	4.10	4.11	+0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	93	392	104	39	12	100%	6.2	26.6%	9.9%	16.6%	3.1%	4.15	4.19	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	89	375	99	38	12	100%	5.9	26.3%	10.1%	16.2%	3.2%	4.25	4.32	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	83	352	91	37	12	100%	6.0	26.0%	10.4%	15.5%	3.4%	4.40	4.50	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	78	328	91	33	12	100%	6.0	27.6%	10.0%	17.6%	3.7%	4.42	4.43	+0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	72	304	82	32	12	100%	6.0	27.1%	10.4%	16.7%	3.9%	4.56	4.66	+0.2
2037	33	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	66	279	74	30	12	100%	6.0	26.6%	10.8%	15.8%	4.2%	4.77	4.91	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	46	194	51	21	6	100%	5.1	26.2%	10.9%	15.3%	2.9%	4.29	4.21	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	67	283	75	29	8	100%	5.6	26.4%	10.2%	16.2%	2.8%	4.17	4.09	+0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	79	334	89	33	9	100%	5.6	26.6%	9.8%	16.8%	2.8%	4.08	4.02	+0.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	85	359	96	35	10	100%	6.1	26.7%	9.7%	17.0%	2.8%	4.03	4.00	+0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	87	367	98	36	11	100%	6.2	26.7%	9.8%	16.9%	2.9%	4.03	4.04	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	86	363	96	36	11	100%	6.1	26.6%	9.9%	16.6%	3.0%	4.08	4.12	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	83	350	92	36	11	100%	5.9	26.3%	10.1%	16.2%	3.1%	4.17	4.24	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	78	329	85	34	11	100%	6.0	26.0%	10.4%	15.5%	3.3%	4.32	4.42	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	74	312	86	31	11	100%	6.2	27.6%	10.0%	17.6%	3.5%	4.33	4.34	+0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	68	287	78	30	11	100%	6.2	27.1%	10.4%	16.7%	3.7%	4.47	4.57	+0.2
2037	33	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	63	266	71	29	11	100%	6.3	26.6%	10.8%	15.8%	4.0%	4.67	4.81	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		138	138	815	3443	916	349	108	100%	5.9	26.6%	10.1%	16.5%	3.1%	4.22	3.86	+10.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	225	86	26	100%	5.9	26.6%	10.1%	16.5%	3.1%	4.22	3.86	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		22	19	92	376	101	47	12	86%	4.2	26.8%	12.6%	14.3%	3.3%	3.51	4.25	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	41	200	814	219	103	27	86%	4.2	26.8%	12.6%	14.3%	3.3%	3.51	4.25	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Jacobs (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	25.8%	12.1%	3.0%	—	4.18	26.4%	16.1%	287	-0.31	—	—	—
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	83
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	79
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	78
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	76
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	75
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	75
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.26	473	74
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	73
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	73
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	73
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	73
Tommy Sommer L 2021 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP-	4.65	23.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.196	5.36	18.6%	6.1%	205	+0.71	4.28	230	73
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	73
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	72
Bryan Sammons L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP-	3.58	22.7%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	3.96	18.4%	8.4%	228	+0.38	3.58	688	72
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	72
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.71	19.6%	9.4%	345	-0.21	3.26	448	71
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	71
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	71
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	82	26.6%	10.2%	1.26	4.30
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04