Ben Jacobs

P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#319ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	22	19	92	3.51	2.98	35.1%	10.9%	—	K 26.8% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.25
2027PROJ	23	MLBDET	—	—	0	4.57	4.57	26.8%	13.0%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBDET	6	6	33	4.37	4.30	26.9%	11.6%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBDET	8	8	48	4.26	4.19	26.9%	10.8%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$3M2034Arb-3$4M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 80%

CompsHayden Mullins (age 23) · Brent Killam (age 23) · Sam Weatherly (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%26.8%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%13.9%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$28M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$1.0M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$13M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	19	92	376	132	41	10	86%	4.2	26.8%	12.6%	14.3%	3.3%	3.51	4.25	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	19	92	376	132	41	10	86%	4.2	26.8%	12.6%	14.3%	3.3%	3.51	4.25	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	19	92	376	132	41	10	86%	4.2	35.1%	10.9%	24.2%	2.7%	3.51	2.98	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	26.8%	13.0%	13.9%	3.1%	4.57	4.57	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	76	320	86	37	10	100%	5.4	26.9%	11.6%	15.3%	3.1%	4.44	4.37	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	73	308	83	33	9	100%	6.1	26.9%	10.8%	16.1%	3.1%	4.33	4.26	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	73	307	82	33	9	100%	6.0	26.9%	10.6%	16.2%	3.1%	4.27	4.23	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	71	299	80	32	9	100%	5.9	26.8%	10.6%	16.1%	3.1%	4.27	4.27	+0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	68	285	76	31	9	100%	6.1	26.6%	10.8%	15.8%	3.2%	4.32	4.36	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	69	293	83	30	10	100%	5.8	28.4%	10.2%	18.2%	3.4%	4.26	4.22	+1.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	63	266	75	28	9	100%	6.3	28.0%	10.5%	17.5%	3.6%	4.34	4.39	+0.7
2035	31	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	56	236	65	26	9	100%	6.2	27.6%	10.9%	16.8%	3.8%	4.49	4.60	+0.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	48	205	56	23	8	100%	6.1	27.2%	11.3%	15.9%	4.0%	4.69	4.82	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	33	139	37	16	4	100%	5.5	26.9%	11.6%	15.3%	2.9%	4.37	4.30	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	48	203	55	22	6	100%	6.0	26.9%	10.8%	16.1%	2.9%	4.26	4.19	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	58	245	66	26	7	100%	5.8	26.9%	10.6%	16.2%	2.9%	4.20	4.16	+0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	60	253	68	27	8	100%	6.0	26.8%	10.6%	16.1%	3.0%	4.20	4.20	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	60	253	67	27	8	100%	6.0	26.6%	10.8%	15.8%	3.1%	4.25	4.29	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	63	266	76	27	9	100%	6.3	28.4%	10.2%	18.2%	3.2%	4.18	4.14	+0.9
2034	30	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	58	245	69	26	8	100%	5.8	28.0%	10.5%	17.5%	3.4%	4.26	4.31	+0.7
2035	31	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	52	220	61	24	8	100%	5.8	27.6%	10.9%	16.8%	3.6%	4.40	4.51	+0.5
2036	32	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	45	190	52	21	7	100%	5.6	27.2%	11.3%	15.9%	3.9%	4.60	4.73	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		80	80	478	2017	551	217	65	100%	6.0	27.3%	10.8%	16.5%	3.2%	4.29	3.92	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	231	91	27	100%	6.0	27.3%	10.8%	16.5%	3.2%	4.29	3.92	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		22	19	92	376	101	47	12	86%	4.2	26.8%	12.6%	14.3%	3.3%	3.51	4.25	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	41	200	814	219	103	27	86%	4.2	26.8%	12.6%	14.3%	3.3%	3.51	4.25	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 76 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.68 (+1.32)K% 34.5% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.50%	—	×0.770	26.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.18%	—	×1.150	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.19%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.99%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 17 IPFIP 1.09 → 2.14 (+1.05)K% 38.1% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.10%	—	×0.740	28.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.180	11.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.09 → 2.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Jacobs (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.29	26.9%	15.9%	221	-0.28	—	—	—
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	86
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	86
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	84
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	84
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	82
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	82
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	81
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	81
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	80
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	80
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	80
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	79
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	79
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	79
Tony Cingrani L 2013 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP-	3.65	28.6%	10.0%	3.1%	.238	4.26	21.8%	9.1%	184	+0.61	1.68	354	78
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	77
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	77
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	76
Trenton Wallace L 2022 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	25.8%	15.8%	1.3%	.224	4.59	22.7%	11.1%	206	+0.97	2.87	286	76
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	66	27.2%	11.0%	1.28	4.39
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Matt Barnes ('24)	2.3	52	29.0%	10.6%	1.02	4.21
Doug Bair ('76-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	76	25.2%*	10.4%*	1.22*	4.12*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Octavio Dotel ('13)	4.8	79	28.4%	10.2%	1.11	3.78