Paul Wilson

P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#829ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDET	11	8	35	6.62	5.70	18.8%	19.9%	—	K 12.8% · BB 24.9% · FIP 6.96
2025	20	ADET	3	2	6	4.26	2.47	34.4%	18.8%	—	K 34.4% · BB 18.8% · FIP 2.57
2026	21	MIX2 levels	13	9	24	8.62	5.10	26.6%	23.4%	—	K 20.0% · BB 29.5% · FIP 6.63
2027PROJ	22	MLBDET	—	—	0	5.79	5.79	22.1%	20.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBDET	9	9	48	5.36	5.21	23.1%	16.9%	0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBDET	13	13	75	5.05	4.89	23.7%	14.9%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 2.7, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 89%

CompsNoah Dean (age 22) · Bailey Horn (age 23) · Mark Manfredi Sr. (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127135vR 143

ERA5.79

FIP5.79

K%22.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%2.0%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	11	8	35	181	34	36	4	73%	3.2	12.8%	24.9%	-12.1%	3.3%	6.62	6.96	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	11	8	35	181	34	36	4	73%	3.2	12.8%	24.9%	-12.1%	3.3%	6.62	6.96	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	11	8	35	181	34	36	4	73%	3.2	18.8%	19.9%	-1.1%	2.2%	6.62	5.70	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	3	2	6	32	11	6	0	67%	2.1	34.4%	18.8%	15.6%	0.0%	4.26	2.57	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	3	2	6	32	11	6	0	67%	2.1	34.4%	18.8%	15.6%	0.0%	4.26	2.57	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	3	2	6	32	11	6	0	67%	2.1	34.4%	18.8%	15.6%	0.0%	4.26	2.47	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	24	128	34	30	2	69%	1.8	20.0%	29.5%	-9.5%	2.7%	8.62	6.63	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	24	128	34	30	2	69%	1.8	20.0%	29.5%	-9.5%	2.7%	8.62	6.63	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	9	24	128	34	30	2	69%	1.8	26.6%	23.4%	3.1%	1.6%	8.62	5.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.1%	20.0%	2.0%	3.0%	5.79	5.79	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	97	408	94	69	12	100%	5.4	23.1%	16.9%	6.2%	2.9%	5.43	5.28	+0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	19	19	107	451	107	67	13	100%	5.6	23.7%	14.9%	8.8%	2.9%	5.12	4.96	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	114	483	116	66	14	100%	5.7	24.0%	13.6%	10.4%	2.9%	4.90	4.77	+0.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	19	19	113	479	116	64	14	100%	6.0	24.1%	13.4%	10.8%	2.9%	4.79	4.73	+0.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	110	466	112	63	14	100%	6.1	24.1%	13.5%	10.7%	3.0%	4.78	4.77	+0.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	105	444	107	60	14	100%	5.8	24.0%	13.6%	10.4%	3.1%	4.82	4.85	+0.7
2034	29	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	98	414	98	57	13	100%	6.1	23.8%	13.8%	9.9%	3.2%	4.92	4.99	+0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	89	377	88	53	13	100%	6.0	23.4%	14.1%	9.3%	3.4%	5.07	5.16	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	48	203	47	34	6	100%	5.3	23.1%	16.9%	6.2%	2.8%	5.36	5.21	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	75	317	75	47	9	100%	5.8	23.7%	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	5.05	4.89	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	93	393	94	53	11	100%	5.8	24.0%	13.6%	10.4%	2.8%	4.83	4.70	+0.7
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	99	418	101	56	12	100%	6.2	24.1%	13.4%	10.8%	2.8%	4.72	4.66	+0.8
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	17	17	100	422	102	57	12	100%	5.9	24.1%	13.5%	10.7%	2.8%	4.71	4.70	+0.7
2033	28	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	97	410	98	56	12	100%	6.1	24.0%	13.6%	10.4%	2.9%	4.75	4.78	+0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	DET	15	15	91	384	91	53	12	100%	6.1	23.8%	13.8%	9.9%	3.1%	4.85	4.92	+0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	84	355	83	50	12	100%	6.0	23.4%	14.1%	9.3%	3.3%	4.99	5.08	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	116	685	2894	689	405	84	100%	5.9	23.8%	14.0%	9.8%	2.9%	4.87	4.46	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	201	118	25	100%	5.9	23.8%	14.0%	9.8%	2.9%	4.87	4.46	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		27	19	66	341	60	89	9	70%	2.4	17.5%	26.0%	-8.5%	2.7%	7.13	6.42	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	58	200	1039	182	270	28	70%	2.4	17.5%	26.0%	-8.5%	2.7%	7.13	6.42	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 17 IPFIP 5.12 → 6.63 (+1.51)K% 27.1% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.08%	—	×0.740	20.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.00%	—	×1.180	29.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.71%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.12 → 6.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Tigers · 7 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.63 (+1.27)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.75%	—	×1.250	23.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 6 IPFIP 2.57 → 3.75 (+1.18)K% 34.4% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.38%	—	×0.740	25.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.75%	—	×1.180	22.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.864	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.57 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Tigers · 35 IPFIP 5.25 → 6.96 (+1.71)K% 18.8% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.78%	—	×0.680	12.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.89%	—	×1.250	24.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷0.952	×1.400	3.25%

Result: FIP 5.25 → 6.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Wilson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.99	23.6%	8.6%	318	-0.80	—	—	—
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	78
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	75
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	75
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	74
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	74
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	73
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	73
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	71
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	70
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	70
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	70
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	69
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	69
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	21	SP-	5.99	13.6%	16.7%	3.5%	.209	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	128	67
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	67
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	67
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	67
Esmerlin Vinicio L 2024 · 4.81 FIP	21	SW	4.81	16.2%	16.8%	1.7%	.261	4.29	19.5%	3.3%	113	-0.52	3.73	383	67
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	66
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	103	23.6%	14.7%	1.17	5.05
Les Cain ('68-'72, 2 WAR*)	1.9	93	24.6%*	12.9%*	1.00*	4.66*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Scipio Spinks ('69-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.7%*	12.2%*	1.04*	4.52*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56
Floyd Youmans ('85-'89, 6 WAR*)	2.7	108	23.5%*	11.9%*	1.06*	4.23*