Paul Wilson — OGILVIE

Paul Wilson P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 21 LHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134142vR 150

ERA6.14

FIP6.14

K%20.4%

BB%21.6%

K-BB%-1.2%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	11	8	35	181	34	36	4	73%	3.2	12.8%	24.9%	-12.1%	3.3%	6.62	6.96	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	11	8	35	181	34	36	4	73%	3.2	12.8%	24.9%	-12.1%	3.3%	6.62	6.96	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	11	8	35	181	34	36	4	73%	3.2	18.8%	19.9%	-1.1%	2.2%	6.62	5.70	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	3	2	6	32	11	6	0	67%	2.1	34.4%	18.8%	15.6%	0.0%	4.26	2.57	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	3	2	6	32	11	6	0	67%	2.1	34.4%	18.8%	15.6%	0.0%	4.26	2.57	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	3	2	6	32	11	6	0	67%	2.1	34.4%	18.8%	15.6%	0.0%	4.26	2.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	13	9	24	128	34	30	2	69%	1.8	20.0%	29.5%	-9.5%	2.7%	8.62	6.63	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	13	9	24	128	34	30	2	69%	1.8	20.0%	29.5%	-9.5%	2.7%	8.62	6.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	DET	4	4	7	32	8	6	0	100%	1.8	25.0%	18.8%	6.2%	0.0%	4.91	3.36	—
2026	21	A RAW	DET	9	5	17	96	26	24	2	56%	1.9	27.1%	25.0%	2.1%	2.1%	10.26	5.12	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	7	31	6	7	1	100%	7.4	20.4%	21.6%	-1.2%	3.0%	6.14	6.14	-0.1
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	31	159	40	37	3	—	—	25.4%	23.1%	2.3%	1.8%	8.04	6.52	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	121	511	113	92	15	100%	5.5	22.1%	17.9%	4.1%	2.9%	5.68	5.50	-0.8
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	29	29	160	673	156	105	20	100%	5.5	23.1%	15.6%	7.5%	2.9%	5.29	5.10	-0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	31	31	175	739	175	104	21	100%	5.6	23.7%	14.0%	9.7%	2.9%	5.00	4.84	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	30	30	177	748	180	98	21	100%	5.9	24.1%	13.0%	11.0%	2.9%	4.80	4.67	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	30	30	177	748	182	97	21	100%	5.9	24.3%	13.0%	11.3%	2.9%	4.71	4.65	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	29	29	174	737	179	96	21	100%	6.0	24.3%	13.1%	11.2%	2.9%	4.70	4.69	+0.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	DET	28	28	169	715	173	95	22	100%	6.0	24.1%	13.2%	10.9%	3.0%	4.74	4.77	+0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	DET	27	27	162	683	163	92	22	100%	6.0	23.9%	13.5%	10.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.90	0.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	DET	25	25	152	642	151	88	22	100%	6.1	23.5%	13.8%	9.8%	3.4%	4.99	5.08	-0.3
2036	31	MLB MLE	DET	24	24	142	598	139	84	21	100%	5.9	23.2%	14.1%	9.0%	3.6%	5.17	5.28	-0.6
2027	22	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	59	249	55	45	7	100%	5.4	22.1%	17.9%	4.1%	2.8%	5.61	5.43	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	21	21	116	490	113	76	14	100%	5.5	23.1%	15.6%	7.5%	2.8%	5.22	5.03	-0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	26	26	145	612	145	86	17	100%	5.6	23.7%	14.0%	9.7%	2.8%	4.93	4.77	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	27	27	156	659	158	86	18	100%	5.8	24.1%	13.0%	11.0%	2.7%	4.73	4.60	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	27	27	162	684	166	89	19	100%	6.0	24.3%	13.0%	11.3%	2.7%	4.64	4.58	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	27	27	162	684	166	89	19	100%	6.0	24.3%	13.1%	11.2%	2.8%	4.63	4.62	+0.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	DET	26	26	158	667	161	88	19	100%	6.1	24.1%	13.2%	10.9%	2.9%	4.67	4.70	+0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	DET	26	26	154	650	155	88	20	100%	5.9	23.9%	13.5%	10.4%	3.0%	4.77	4.83	0.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	DET	24	24	144	608	143	84	20	100%	6.0	23.5%	13.8%	9.8%	3.2%	4.91	5.00	-0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	DET	22	22	135	570	132	80	20	100%	6.1	23.2%	14.1%	9.0%	3.4%	5.09	5.20	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		238	238	1392	5877	1396	812	172	100%	5.8	23.8%	13.8%	9.9%	2.9%	4.86	4.45	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	201	117	25	100%	5.8	23.8%	13.8%	9.9%	2.9%	4.86	4.45	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		27	19	66	341	60	89	9	70%	2.4	17.5%	26.0%	-8.5%	2.7%	7.13	6.42	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	58	200	1039	182	270	28	70%	2.4	17.5%	26.0%	-8.5%	2.7%	7.13	6.42	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Wilson (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.14	20.4%	21.6%	3.0%	—	5.11	23.1%	7.5%	456	-1.03	—	—	—
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	80
Levi Prater L 2021 · 7.22 FIP	22	SP-	7.22	23.1%	24.1%	5.5%	.338	6.76	15.8%	-7.7%	42	-0.46	6.76	110	76
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	75
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	75
Julio Robaina L 2022 · 5.55 FIP	21	SP-	5.55	17.4%	16.9%	3.2%	.347	4.04	18.2%	8.7%	178	-1.51	2.72	451	74
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	73
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	73
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	21	SP-	5.99	13.6%	16.7%	3.5%	.209	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	128	72
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	71
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	70
Adam Shoemaker L 2023 · 6.29 FIP	20	SP-	6.29	15.5%	19.2%	3.8%	.304	5.00	19.6%	-2.9%	144	-1.29	4.41	246	70
Mavis Graves L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	19	SP	6.17	18.8%	22.2%	3.3%	.365	4.16	23.9%	10.0%	243	-2.01	3.10	277	68
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	68
Dennis Herrera L 2019 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	14.8%	16.0%	2.0%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	124	67
Holden Laws L 2021 · 6.35 FIP	21	SP-	6.35	19.3%	15.6%	5.3%	.306	4.71	17.5%	7.1%	133	-1.64	2.96	190	66
Ryan Anderson L 2021 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP-	5.71	14.7%	26.1%	1.0%	.373	3.73	20.3%	11.0%	149	-1.98	2.80	214	66
Luis Cesar L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	19	SP-	5.28	14.8%	20.6%	1.5%	.351	5.77	14.3%	-8.1%	91	+0.49	4.84	131	66
Jhordany Mezquita L 2019 · 5.69 FIP	21	SP-	5.69	16.0%	16.4%	3.4%	.294	5.15	18.5%	4.2%	90	-0.54	3.02	223	66
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	65
Jacob Heatherly L 2018 · 6.27 FIP	20	SP	6.27	18.1%	27.2%	2.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	192	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.5	154	23.5%	14.4%	1.18	5.02
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32