Paul Wilson — OGILVIE

Paul Wilson P FCL Tigers

Age 21 LHP 6'3" / 205 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120129vR 138

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%20.4%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	FCL Tigers	11	8	35	181	34	36	4	73%	3.2	12.8%	24.9%	-12.1%	3.4%	6.62	7.05	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Tigers	11	8	35	181	34	36	4	73%	3.2	18.8%	19.9%	-1.1%	2.2%	6.62	5.70	—
2025	20	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	3	2	6	32	11	6	0	67%	2.1	34.4%	18.8%	15.6%	0.0%	4.26	2.57	—
2025	20	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	3	2	6	32	11	6	0	67%	2.1	34.4%	18.8%	15.6%	0.0%	4.26	2.47	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	6	6	12	55	16	10	0	100%	1.9	—	—	—	—	6.17	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	DET	12	12	65	274	56	41	8	100%	5.4	20.4%	14.9%	5.5%	3.0%	5.30	5.30	-0.5
ROS	21	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.4%	14.9%	5.5%	2.9%	5.23	5.23	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	DET	—	—	76	329	72	51	8	—	—	21.9%	15.4%	6.4%	2.5%	5.43	4.49	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	DET	22	22	121	511	113	67	15	100%	5.5	22.1%	13.0%	9.1%	2.9%	5.01	4.88	+0.7
2028	23	MLB	DET	29	29	160	673	156	80	20	100%	5.5	23.1%	11.8%	11.3%	2.9%	4.76	4.63	+1.4
2029	24	MLB	DET	31	31	175	739	175	82	21	100%	5.6	23.7%	11.1%	12.6%	2.9%	4.58	4.47	+1.9
2030	25	MLB	DET	30	30	177	748	180	80	21	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.46	4.38	+2.1
2031	26	MLB	DET	30	30	177	748	182	80	21	100%	5.9	24.3%	10.7%	13.6%	2.9%	4.40	4.36	+2.2
2032	27	MLB	DET	29	29	174	737	179	79	22	100%	6.0	24.3%	10.8%	13.5%	2.9%	4.40	4.40	+2.0
2033	28	MLB	DET	28	28	169	715	173	78	22	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.9%	13.2%	3.0%	4.45	4.48	+1.8
2034	29	MLB	DET	27	27	162	683	163	76	22	100%	6.0	23.9%	11.1%	12.8%	3.2%	4.55	4.61	+1.5
2035	30	MLB	DET	25	25	152	642	151	73	22	100%	6.1	23.5%	11.4%	12.1%	3.4%	4.69	4.79	+1.1
2036	31	MLB	DET	24	24	142	598	139	71	22	100%	5.9	23.2%	11.8%	11.4%	3.6%	4.87	4.99	+0.7
2037	32	MLB	DET	22	22	131	554	126	67	21	100%	6.0	22.7%	12.2%	10.5%	3.8%	5.08	5.22	+0.3
2038	33	MLB	DET	20	20	120	508	113	64	21	100%	6.0	22.2%	12.6%	9.6%	4.1%	5.31	5.47	-0.1
2027	22	MLB	DET	11	11	59	249	55	32	7	100%	5.4	22.1%	13.0%	9.1%	2.8%	4.94	4.81	-0.2
2028	23	MLB	DET	21	21	116	490	113	58	14	100%	5.5	23.1%	11.8%	11.3%	2.8%	4.69	4.56	+1.1
2029	24	MLB	DET	26	26	145	612	145	68	17	100%	5.6	23.7%	11.1%	12.6%	2.8%	4.51	4.40	+1.7
2030	25	MLB	DET	27	27	156	659	158	71	18	100%	5.8	24.1%	10.7%	13.3%	2.7%	4.39	4.31	+2.0
2031	26	MLB	DET	27	27	162	684	166	73	19	100%	6.0	24.3%	10.7%	13.6%	2.7%	4.33	4.29	+2.1
2032	27	MLB	DET	27	27	162	684	166	74	19	100%	6.0	24.3%	10.8%	13.5%	2.8%	4.33	4.33	+2.0
2033	28	MLB	DET	26	26	158	667	161	73	19	100%	6.1	24.1%	10.9%	13.2%	2.9%	4.38	4.41	+1.8
2034	29	MLB	DET	26	26	154	650	155	72	20	100%	5.9	23.9%	11.1%	12.8%	3.0%	4.48	4.54	+1.6
2035	30	MLB	DET	24	24	144	608	143	70	20	100%	6.0	23.5%	11.4%	12.1%	3.2%	4.61	4.71	+1.2
2036	31	MLB	DET	22	22	135	570	132	67	20	100%	6.1	23.2%	11.8%	11.4%	3.4%	4.79	4.91	+0.8
2037	32	MLB	DET	21	21	125	528	120	64	19	100%	6.0	22.7%	12.2%	10.5%	3.7%	4.99	5.13	+0.4
2038	33	MLB	DET	19	19	114	481	107	61	19	100%	6.0	22.2%	12.6%	9.6%	3.9%	5.21	5.37	+0.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			278	278	1631	6885	1623	784	210	100%	5.9	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	3.1%	4.59	4.23	+22.3
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	199	96	26	100%	5.9	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	3.1%	4.59	4.23	+2.7
Career	—			20	16	53	268	50	61	6	80%	2.7	18.7%	22.8%	-4.1%	2.3%	6.24	5.67	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—			75	60	200	1005	188	229	23	80%	2.7	18.7%	22.8%	-4.1%	2.3%	6.24	5.67	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Wilson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	20.4%	14.9%	3.0%	—	4.63	23.1%	11.2%	456	-0.67	—	—	—
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2027 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP	4.67	19.6%	14.6%	2.5%	.266	3.89	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.78	2.81	146	82
Rylan Kaufman L 2027 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.3%	12.1%	2.4%	.305	4.69	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.34	4.01	212	81
Adam Tulloch L 2028 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.65	17.8%	1.7%	139	+0.16	4.12	234	81
Bailey Horn L 2028 · 5.16 FIP	23	SP-	5.16	19.7%	12.7%	3.9%	.300	4.71	22.7%	9.5%	152	-0.45	4.13	265	79
Avery Short L 2026 · 5.04 FIP	21	SP-	5.04	20.1%	11.4%	4.0%	.346	4.76	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.28	4.31	460	78
John Beller L 2027 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP	4.59	19.7%	14.1%	2.5%	.326	4.22	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.37	4.00	170	78
Nate Savino L 2027 · 5.70 FIP	22	SP	5.70	16.8%	18.8%	3.0%	.244	4.55	14.8%	0.8%	105	-1.15	4.14	150	77
Luke Fox L 2027 · 5.14 FIP	22	SP	5.14	21.8%	19.2%	2.6%	.284	4.07	21.5%	8.4%	118	-1.07	2.79	148	77
Noah Dean L 2027 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.11	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.72	4.50	217	75
Andrew Faulkner L 2027 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	18.0%	12.8%	3.0%	.290	4.18	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.66	3.78	252	73
Julio Robaina L 2026 · 5.49 FIP	21	SP-	5.49	17.4%	16.9%	3.1%	.347	3.99	18.2%	8.7%	178	-1.50	2.72	431	73
Andrew Sears L 2026 · 4.18 FIP	21	SP	4.18	19.6%	15.4%	1.4%	.248	4.30	20.7%	11.8%	142	+0.12	3.45	232	73
Ronan Kopp L 2026 · 4.73 FIP	21	SP-	4.73	27.6%	19.2%	2.8%	.287	4.41	25.5%	6.1%	139	-0.32	3.07	269	73
Mavis Graves L 2026 · 4.31 FIP	21	SP	4.31	21.3%	15.8%	1.8%	.321	5.77	26.2%	12.7%	54	+1.46	3.05	254	73
Dominic Perachi L 2027 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP-	5.25	17.5%	13.9%	3.4%	.324	3.93	17.1%	6.8%	182	-1.32	3.47	273	73
Erik Rivera L 2028 · 5.95 FIP	23	SP-	5.95	19.0%	14.6%	4.8%	.255	4.86	23.2%	5.8%	87	-1.09	4.69	122	73
Johnny King L 2025 · 4.22 FIP	20	SP	4.22	23.7%	15.4%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	129	72
Shane Drohan L 2027 · 4.23 FIP	22	SP	4.23	16.6%	13.9%	1.4%	.313	5.13	21.1%	8.6%	264	+0.90	2.91	484	72
Mason Molina L 2027 · 4.28 FIP	22	SP	4.28	22.7%	12.6%	2.7%	.276	3.56	23.3%	13.3%	69	-0.72	3.56	165	72
Matt Mikulski L 2028 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP-	4.80	19.4%	10.0%	3.8%	.360	5.95	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.15	4.80	223	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	149	23.4%	11.6%	1.22	4.70
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Chad Kuhl ('24)	8	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98