Dixon Williams

2B Rome Emperors

Age 23 L/R 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#542ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	AATL	114	.269/.398/.462	2	6	68	—	.184/.292/.296
2026	22	AA/A+ATL	494	.234/.337/.470	24	33	63	—	.177/.249/.361
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBATL	1	.218/.285/.392	0	0	89	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	24	MLBATL	168	.221/.288/.397	6	4	91	0.3
2029PROJ55% MLB	25	MLBATL	254	.223/.291/.400	9	6	93	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.8M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed95

ISO93

wRC+53

wOBA49

BB%40

Chase%36

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 2.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsBo Naylor (age 23) · Austin Wells (age 24) · Graham Pauley (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .285 / .392

PA1

HR0

K%30

BB%7

BABIP279

ISO178

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	114	93	25	6	3	2	16	35	4	6	0	269	398	462	861	194	404	31	14	381	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Columbus Clingstones	—	43	37	7	2	1	2	4	13	2	2	1	189	302	459	762	270	227	30	9	335	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Rome Emperors	—	451	386	92	20	2	22	52	133	8	31	10	238	341	472	812	233	297	29	12	355	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	114	98	18	4	2	1	11	48	4	6	0	184	292	296	588	112	333	42	10	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	—	43	38	7	2	1	2	3	16	2	2	1	184	279	447	726	263	209	37	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	—	451	408	72	14	2	18	30	174	8	31	10	176	247	353	600	176	239	39	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	114	98	18	4	2	1	11	48	4	6	0	184	292	296	588	112	340	42	10	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	—	114	93	25	6	3	2	16	35	4	6	0	269	398	462	861	194	404	31	14	381	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	494	446	78	16	2	20	33	190	10	33	11	175	247	354	602	179	241	38	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	494	423	99	22	3	24	56	146	10	33	11	234	337	470	808	236	291	30	11	354	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	114	98	18	4	2	1	11	48	4	6	0	184	292	296	588	112	333	42	10	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	494	448	78	16	2	20	33	190	10	33	11	174	247	353	600	179	236	38	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	114	98	18	4	2	1	11	48	4	6	0	184	292	296	588	112	333	42	10	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	494	448	78	16	2	20	33	190	10	33	11	174	247	353	600	179	236	38	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ATL	0%	524	475	104	20	3	19	36	156	8	14	4	218	285	392	677	174	279	30	7	300	89	-7	+1	-1	+2	+11	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	ATL	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	218	285	392	677	174	279	0	0	300	89	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	38%	443	402	88	17	2	16	31	130	7	11	3	221	288	397	686	176	280	29	7	303	91	-5	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	ATL	55%	458	415	93	18	3	17	33	132	7	11	3	223	291	400	690	177	281	29	7	305	93	-4	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	ATL	64%	463	419	93	18	2	17	34	132	7	11	3	224	292	400	692	176	281	29	7	306	93	-4	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	ATL	66%	462	419	93	18	2	17	34	131	6	11	3	224	293	398	690	174	281	28	7	306	93	-4	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	ATL	67%	458	415	92	18	2	16	34	130	6	10	3	223	292	394	685	170	281	28	7	304	92	-4	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	ATL	72%	450	408	89	17	2	15	33	129	6	9	3	221	289	387	676	167	279	29	7	300	89	-6	+1	-2	+2	+10	0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	ATL	75%	428	388	84	16	2	14	31	124	6	7	3	218	285	379	665	162	277	29	7	295	86	-7	+0	-3	+2	+9	0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	ATL	77%	412	374	79	15	2	13	30	121	5	6	4	213	280	370	650	156	274	29	7	289	82	-9	-0	-3	+1	+9	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	38%	168	151	34	7	1	6	12	49	3	4	1	221	288	397	686	176	280	29	7	303	91	-2	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	ATL	55%	254	230	51	10	1	9	18	73	4	6	2	223	291	400	690	177	281	29	7	305	93	-2	+0	-0	+1	+6	0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	ATL	64%	295	268	61	12	2	11	21	84	4	7	2	224	292	400	692	176	281	28	7	306	93	-2	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	ATL	66%	304	275	62	12	2	11	22	86	4	7	2	224	293	398	690	174	281	28	7	306	93	-3	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	ATL	67%	306	276	63	12	2	11	23	87	4	6	2	223	292	394	685	170	281	28	8	304	92	-3	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	ATL	72%	322	291	64	12	2	11	24	92	4	6	2	221	289	387	676	167	279	29	7	300	89	-4	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	ATL	75%	320	290	63	12	1	11	23	93	4	6	2	218	285	379	665	162	277	29	7	295	86	-5	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	ATL	77%	318	288	61	12	1	10	23	93	4	5	3	213	280	370	650	156	274	29	7	289	82	-7	-0	-3	+1	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2287	2069	459	89	12	80	166	657	31	47	16	222	289	392	682	171	282	29	7	301	86	-28	+3	-9	+8	+50	2.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	130	25	3	23	47	187	9	13	5	221	289	391	680	170	280	29	7	301	86	-8	+1	-2	+2	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	4392	3975	849	165	22	154	318	1330	67	121	38	214	283	382	665	169	276	30	7	296	86	-45	+6	-13	+14	+82	4.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	125	24	3	23	47	197	10	18	6	213	282	381	663	168	275	30	7	296	86	-8	+1	-2	+2	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Rome Emperors · 451 PAwOBA .348 → .261 (−87)K% 29.5% → 38.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.49%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	38.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.09%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.998	6.64%
HBP% /PA	1.77%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	1.36%
Singles /BIP	18.97%	÷1.000	×0.870	×0.970	×0.998	15.97%
Doubles /BIP	7.91%	÷1.000	×0.780	×0.970	×0.998	5.97%
Triples /BIP	0.79%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.970	×0.998	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	8.70%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.998	7.64%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .348 → .261; ISO .233 → .188; BABIP .297 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 43 PAwOBA .326 → .265 (−62)K% 30.2% → 36.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.23%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	36.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.30%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.027	6.50%
HBP% /PA	4.65%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	4.01%
Singles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.027	7.87%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×1.027	7.79%
Triples /BIP	4.17%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.027	3.77%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	6.85%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .326 → .265; ISO .270 → .219; BABIP .227 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAugusta GreenJackets · 114 PAwOBA .376 → .268 (−107)K% 30.7% → 42.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.70%	÷0.984	×1.360	—	—	42.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.04%	÷0.985	×0.690	—	—	9.83%
HBP% /PA	3.51%	—	×0.780	—	—	2.74%
Singles /BIP	24.14%	÷1.030	×0.920	×0.954	—	20.56%
Doubles /BIP	10.34%	÷0.977	×0.830	×0.954	—	8.38%
Triples /BIP	5.17%	÷1.037	×0.910	×0.954	—	4.33%
Home runs /BIP	3.45%	÷1.281	×0.800	—	—	2.15%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 107, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .376 → .268; ISO .194 → .130; BABIP .404 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeimer Candelariolast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,576 PA	5.4	3,576	110	19	237	316	412	+8	-5	12.7	13.0
/162	664	20	4	+1.6	-0.9	2.4	pk7: 13
#2Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	5.3	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
/162	664	21	2	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#3Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#4Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8
#5Russ Davis'94-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,176 PA	3.3	2,176	84	16	244*	296*	428*	+6	-9	5.0	5.2
/162	664	26	5	+1.9	-2.8	1.5	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.4	2,288	80	47	222	286	391	+8	-5	4.5	4.4
/162	664	23	14	+2.4	-1.4	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Pedro Garcia'73-'77 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,967 PA	3.0	1,967	37	35	220*	270*	388*	+6	-6	-0.3	-0.3
/162	664	12	12	+2.1	-2.0	-0.1	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dixon Williams (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	216/282/389	173	279	8	6	30%	7%	89	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	50→55	54→50	49	211/301/366	155	290	17	16	32%	10%	90	+0.6	217/302/391	174	272	21	10	27%	10%	96	+1.0	206/293/384	178	246	22	6	26%	10%	92	+0.5
✕Austin Wells 2023 · AA	24	43→44	52→55	57→50	48	221/305/386	165	294	19	14	30%	10%	96	+1.0	218/292/386	168	268	20	8	26%	9%	91	+0.7	211/285/386	175	250	21	5	25%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Graham Pauley 2024 · AA	23	50→52	52→55	53→50	48	253/317/427	174	298	20	14	22%	8%	109	+2.0	220/288/373	153	268	17	10	24%	8%	86	+0.3	202/274/352	149	245	16	9	24%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Brett Wisely 2022 · A	23	48→51	50	52→55	43	241/298/388	147	324	18	20	31%	8%	93	+0.8	236/304/372	136	307	14	18	26%	8%	91	+0.7	235/306/367	132	300	12	17	24%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	43→41	51→50	52→55	45	223/290/390	167	279	19	17	27%	8%	91	+0.7	180/256/301	121	262	15	21	35%	8%	59	-1.7	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Drew Gilbert 2024 · AA	23	49→50	49→50	49→45	47	248/313/399	151	299	17	12	23%	8%	101	+1.4	225/300/374	149	266	16	8	22%	8%	91	+0.7	217/301/368	151	248	17	6	20%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	42→48	48→55	52→55	44	215/274/360	145	274	16	12	28%	7%	78	-0.3	228/295/388	160	293	16	20	27%	8%	92	+0.7	227/300/392	165	291	17	22	27%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Jace Jung 2024 · AA	23	43→44	52→50	48→40	48	220/300/383	163	290	20	5	30%	9%	93	+0.8	216/304/368	152	282	17	4	28%	11%	91	+0.7	205/299/350	146	260	16	3	27%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	38→45	48→50	57→55	45	200/273/344	144	263	16	19	30%	8%	74	-0.5	218/289/354	136	286	15	17	28%	8%	82	+0.0	219/291/353	133	286	15	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46→47	49→50	52→50	42	230/312/381	150	296	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	223/306/371	148	287	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	210/295/352	142	268	18	11	27%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Oswaldo Cabrera 2022 · AAA	23	44→49	52→55	50	40	229/273/400	170	296	20	15	30%	6%	86	+0.3	228/283/373	145	288	16	15	26%	7%	84	+0.2	241/292/345	104	296	13	9	23%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Dustin Harris 2023 · AA	24	46→56	53→50	54→60	47	241/304/414	173	279	22	19	23%	7%	102	+1.5	232/304/361	129	298	13	29	25%	8%	89	+0.5	253/317/371	118	309	11	34	21%	7%	94	+0.7
●Zack Gelof 2023 · AAA	23	46→53	52→55	52→55	44	230/294/392	162	319	20	13	33%	8%	93	+0.8	234/299/408	174	324	21	23	32%	8%	99	+1.2	228/297/401	173	313	21	27	33%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Daniel Johnson 2018 · A	23	46→51	50→55	48→55	39	235/279/388	153	287	18	13	25%	4%	86	+0.3	242/290/392	150	313	15	15	27%	5%	91	+0.6	229/282/384	156	310	16	14	30%	6%	84	+0.1
●Ronny Simon 2023 · AA	23	39→49	52→50	56→60	39	213/257/378	165	265	21	22	29%	5%	76	-0.4	236/292/361	125	301	12	24	24%	7%	84	+0.2	273/337/383	110	340	8	30	21%	8%	103	+1.3
✕Tim Wheeler 2012 · AA	24	48→56	51→50	49→50	42	242/300/401	160	305	19	14	27%	6%	97	+1.1	233/286/343	110	312	10	12	27%	6%	78	-0.3	219/273/306	88	301	6	11	28%	5%	62	-1.1
✕Shed Long Jr. 2019 · AA	23	49→50	47→50	51→50	44	238/300/376	138	319	14	13	29%	7%	91	+0.7	230/290/373	143	310	15	10	29%	8%	86	+0.3	222/283/373	151	295	17	8	29%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	46→51	52→55	49→50	45	236/302/402	166	297	20	12	27%	7%	98	+1.2	247/306/406	159	329	18	11	29%	7%	100	+1.3	247/320/404	157	334	17	14	30%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Scott Moore 2007 · MLB	23	46→50	51→55	46→50	41	235/293/396	162	315	19	12	31%	7%	94	+0.9	225/289/385	160	295	18	7	29%	7%	90	+0.6	236/301/378	142	289	16	5	23%	7%	91	+0.5
●Bryan Petersen 2009 · AA	23	47→57	50→45	48→50	44	240/298/383	143	300	19	14	26%	7%	92	+0.7	247/305/361	114	300	11	11	20%	7%	89	+0.5	256/320/369	113	307	9	11	19%	7%	96	+0.8

Dixon Williams

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps