Jarlin Susana

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 235 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #29Pre-ArbFA 2033

Scout OFP54ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	24	24	104	4.34	1.71	35.4%	10.8%	—	K 26.7% · BB 12.6% · FIP 2.75
2025	21	MIX2 levels	14	14	56	3.51	2.23	38.9%	13.9%	—	K 30.8% · BB 16.9% · FIP 3.63
2026	22	MIX3 levels	8	8	20	6.20	1.72	39.4%	11.7%	—	K 32.1% · BB 8.3% · FIP 2.68
2027PROJ	23	MLBWSH	16	16	90	3.93	3.93	33.0%	13.9%	1.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBWSH	9	9	52	3.85	3.78	32.5%	12.4%	0.7
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBWSH	16	16	92	3.77	3.70	32.1%	11.5%	1.3

Next 3 projected WAR 3.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$6M2031Arb-2$10M2032Ext$14M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff66Control43Command43FB velo69

Career WAR2 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 30, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 51%

CompsSean Mooney (age 23) · George Klassen (age 22) · Jackson Baumeister (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.93

FIP3.93

K%33.0%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%19.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6565

CTRL4045

CMD3545

K†7070

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+1.7	$11M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$10M	+1.7	$10M	+$3M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$18M		$32M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	45	179	66	20	2	92%	3.5	26.7%	13.9%	12.8%	1.1%	2.40	3.23	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	12	45	179	66	20	2	92%	3.5	36.9%	11.2%	25.7%	1.1%	2.40	2.08	—
2023	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	17	17	63	284	62	40	3	100%	3.7	16.2%	16.6%	-0.5%	1.5%	5.14	4.66	—
2023	19	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	17	17	63	284	62	40	3	100%	3.7	21.8%	14.1%	7.7%	1.1%	5.14	3.66	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	104	444	157	48	2	100%	4.3	26.7%	12.6%	14.0%	0.6%	4.34	2.75	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	104	444	157	48	2	100%	4.3	26.7%	12.6%	14.0%	0.6%	4.34	2.75	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	104	444	157	48	2	100%	4.3	35.4%	10.8%	24.5%	0.5%	4.34	1.71	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	56	244	95	34	3	100%	4.0	30.8%	16.9%	13.8%	1.8%	3.51	3.63	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	56	244	95	34	3	100%	4.0	30.8%	16.9%	13.8%	1.8%	3.51	3.63	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	56	244	95	34	3	100%	4.0	38.9%	13.9%	25.0%	1.2%	3.51	2.23	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	20	94	37	11	1	100%	2.5	32.1%	8.3%	23.8%	2.3%	6.20	2.68	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	20	94	37	11	1	100%	2.5	32.1%	8.3%	23.8%	2.3%	6.20	2.68	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	8	20	94	37	11	1	100%	2.5	39.4%	11.7%	27.7%	1.1%	6.20	1.72	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	WSH	16	16	90	380	125	53	10	100%	5.6	33.0%	13.9%	19.1%	2.7%	3.93	3.93	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	118	499	162	62	13	100%	5.6	32.5%	12.4%	20.1%	2.7%	3.85	3.78	+1.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	138	581	187	67	16	100%	5.7	32.1%	11.5%	20.6%	2.7%	3.77	3.70	+2.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	WSH	25	25	150	632	201	71	17	100%	6.0	31.8%	11.2%	20.6%	2.7%	3.74	3.70	+2.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	WSH	25	25	148	623	196	70	17	100%	5.9	31.5%	11.2%	20.3%	2.8%	3.75	3.75	+2.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	143	604	190	69	17	100%	6.0	31.4%	11.4%	20.1%	2.9%	3.80	3.84	+1.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	137	577	180	67	17	100%	5.9	31.2%	11.6%	19.6%	3.0%	3.90	3.97	+1.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	128	543	167	65	17	100%	6.1	30.8%	11.9%	18.9%	3.2%	4.05	4.15	+1.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	120	506	154	62	17	100%	6.0	30.4%	12.2%	18.2%	3.4%	4.23	4.35	+0.8
2036	32	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	111	468	140	59	17	100%	6.2	30.0%	12.6%	17.3%	3.7%	4.44	4.57	+0.4
2037	33	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	102	429	127	56	17	100%	6.0	29.5%	13.1%	16.4%	4.0%	4.67	4.82	+0.1
2038	34	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	92	391	113	53	17	100%	6.2	28.9%	13.6%	15.3%	4.3%	4.93	5.10	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	52	220	71	27	6	100%	5.8	32.5%	12.4%	20.1%	2.7%	3.85	3.78	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	92	388	125	44	10	100%	5.8	32.1%	11.5%	20.6%	2.7%	3.77	3.70	+1.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	119	502	160	56	14	100%	6.0	31.8%	11.2%	20.6%	2.7%	3.74	3.70	+1.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	WSH	21	21	126	532	168	60	15	100%	6.0	31.5%	11.2%	20.3%	2.8%	3.75	3.75	+1.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	WSH	21	21	128	540	170	61	15	100%	6.1	31.4%	11.4%	20.1%	2.9%	3.80	3.84	+1.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	WSH	21	21	124	524	163	61	16	100%	5.9	31.2%	11.6%	19.6%	3.0%	3.90	3.97	+1.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	119	502	155	60	16	100%	6.0	30.8%	11.9%	18.9%	3.2%	4.05	4.15	+1.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	112	473	144	58	16	100%	5.9	30.4%	12.2%	18.2%	3.4%	4.23	4.35	+0.7
2036	32	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	104	439	132	56	16	100%	6.1	30.0%	12.6%	17.3%	3.7%	4.44	4.57	+0.4
2037	33	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	97	410	121	54	16	100%	6.1	29.5%	13.1%	16.4%	4.0%	4.67	4.82	+0.1
2038	34	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	84	355	103	48	15	100%	6.0	28.9%	13.6%	15.3%	4.3%	4.93	5.10	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		194	194	1155	4877	1508	584	156	100%	6.0	30.9%	12.0%	19.0%	3.2%	4.08	3.76	+16.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	261	101	27	100%	6.0	30.9%	12.0%	19.0%	3.2%	4.08	3.76	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		76	75	288	1245	317	177	15	99%	3.8	25.5%	14.2%	11.2%	1.2%	4.18	3.42	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	52	200	864	220	123	11	99%	3.8	25.5%	14.2%	11.2%	1.2%	4.18	3.42	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jarlin Susana (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.93	33.0%	13.9%	2.7%	—	3.72	32.1%	20.5%	406	-0.21	—	—	—
Sean Mooney R 2021 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	30.2%	15.3%	1.6%	.250	4.70	24.7%	11.2%	60	+1.34	3.36	102	77
George Klassen R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.0%	13.6%	1.7%	.299	4.01	20.6%	9.1%	221	+0.51	3.50	314	77
Jackson Baumeister R 2024 · 3.32 FIP	22	SP	3.32	25.2%	13.4%	1.2%	.270	5.44	18.9%	6.2%	166	+2.12	3.32	265	73
Griff McGarry R 2022 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	29.0%	15.2%	2.9%	.252	4.12	26.1%	8.5%	157	-0.08	2.46	282	73
David Festa R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP	3.68	24.5%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.71	27.2%	19.1%	209	+0.03	3.67	405	71
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.88	20.3%	9.2%	134	+0.19	2.44	223	71
Luis Gil R 2021 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	29.2%	14.2%	2.7%	.276	4.13	26.8%	14.3%	173	+0.21	3.11	567	71
Gavin Williams R 2022 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	26.2%	9.9%	2.4%	.238	3.87	25.1%	14.3%	398	+0.43	3.39	697	70
Matt Brash R 2021 · 3.46 FIP	23	SP	3.46	27.8%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	2.76	32.2%	20.3%	147	-0.70	1.91	309	69
Clayton Beeter R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	30.0%	14.5%	3.7%	.327	3.97	26.7%	12.9%	217	-0.45	2.60	395	69
Mason Black R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	25.2%	10.0%	3.6%	.284	5.09	18.0%	8.3%	333	+0.86	3.95	569	69
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	69
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	68
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	68
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	68
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.75	21.2%	12.0%	217	+0.23	4.39	458	68
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	67
Alec Marsh R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	23	SP	4.70	32.1%	13.5%	4.7%	.340	4.87	23.2%	13.4%	399	+0.17	3.93	424	67
Luis Garcia R 2019 · 3.80 FIP	22	SP-	3.80	28.9%	13.1%	2.7%	.266	3.77	25.4%	17.9%	313	-0.03	3.40	535	67
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.4	123	31.2%	12.1%	1.20	4.04
Bob Turley ('51-'63, 17 WAR*)	8.6	156	27.0%*	13.0%*	0.97*	4.22*
Sam Jones ('51-'64, 20 WAR*)	8.2	183	29.1%*	11.5%*	0.96*	3.94*
Johnny Vander Meer ('37-'51, 30 WAR*)	10.5	175	30.3%*	12.1%*	0.86*	3.96*
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
Trevor Bauer ('21)	6.5	162	25.9%	9.0%	1.11	3.79
Rich Harden ('11)	4.6	103	24.2%	10.7%	1.02	3.76