Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career (MLE) + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | — | ROK | ACL Rangers | 10 | 10 | 37 | 158 | 47 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 3.7 | 20.2% | 16.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.82 | 5.93 | -0.6 |
| ROS | — | MLB | TEX | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | — | MLB | TEX | — | — | 63 | 268 | 73 | 31 | 8 | — | — | 27.1% | 11.7% | 15.5% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 5 | 5 | 26 | 111 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 37 | 158 | 32 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 3.7 | 20.2% | 16.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.82 | 5.93 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 54 | 200 | 846 | 171 | 139 | 38 | 100% | 3.7 | 20.2% | 16.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.82 | 5.93 | -1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Player 702727 (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brendan Beck R 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 85 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 80 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 79 |
| Peter Van Loon R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.14 | 25.5% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .303 | 4.30 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 53 | +1.16 | 2.47 | 256 | 77 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .286 | 5.51 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 58 | +1.96 | 3.29 | 142 | 75 |
| Brooks Auger R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 26.3% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 138 | 72 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 72 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 72 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.34 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 1.7% | .280 | 2.13 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 36 | -1.21 | 2.13 | 218 | 72 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 72 |
| Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 71 |
| Ricky Salinas R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.22 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .335 | 5.81 | 14.3% | -0.8% | 71 | +0.59 | 4.87 | 274 | 71 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 71 |
| Jackson Finley R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.85 | 20.7% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 132 | 71 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 71 |
| Justin Dunn R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.48 | 22.5% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .231 | 5.99 | 16.1% | 3.2% | 60 | +1.51 | 3.51 | 601 | 70 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 70 |
| Connor McCullough R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.20 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | .217 | 3.62 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 64 | -1.58 | 3.62 | 222 | 70 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.64 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 3.1% | .283 | 4.15 | 18.9% | 11.0% | 79 | -0.49 | 3.87 | 247 | 70 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.08 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 4.2% | .352 | 3.78 | 22.8% | 15.5% | 137 | -1.30 | 3.53 | 352 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 1.16 | 4.32 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |