Caden Dana

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.0 · 2029

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	26	26	146	3.02	3.26	26.3%	7.8%	3.9	K 21.6% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.95
2025	21	MIX2 levels	25	23	114	6.06	5.33	23.1%	12.5%	0.1	K 20.8% · BB 11.6% · FIP 5.44
2026	22	AAALAA	24	24	93	5.52	4.58	20.5%	14.3%	—	K 17.6% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.68
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAA	12	12	65	5.04	5.30	20.7%	12.5%	0.1
2028PROJ68% MLB	24	MLBLAA	17	17	97	5.03	5.07	21.6%	11.3%	0.4
2029PROJ80% MLB	25	MLBLAA	20	20	115	4.94	4.91	22.0%	10.6%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.000First FA2030

2027Arb-1$0.4M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%57

FB Velo55

xwOBA vs27

Career WAR0.2 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 8.6, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 68%

CompsJamison Hill (age 23) · Jesse Foppert (age 23) · Nolan McLean (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.04

FIP5.30

K%20.7%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP144

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2024

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$5M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	8	37	8	1	0	100%	2.1	21.6%	2.7%	18.9%	0.0%	6.48	1.62	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	8	37	8	1	0	100%	2.1	21.6%	2.7%	18.9%	0.0%	6.48	1.54	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	68	281	89	30	4	100%	4.9	24.2%	12.3%	11.9%	1.9%	3.56	3.64	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	68	281	89	30	4	100%	4.9	31.7%	10.7%	21.0%	1.4%	3.56	2.57	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	146	589	155	46	15	100%	5.6	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.9%	3.02	3.95	+2.5
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	146	589	155	46	15	100%	5.6	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.9%	3.02	3.95	+2.5
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	146	589	155	46	15	100%	5.6	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	2.5%	3.02	3.26	+3.9
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	114	511	118	64	23	92%	4.6	20.8%	11.6%	9.1%	4.8%	6.06	5.44	-0.1
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	114	511	118	64	23	92%	4.6	20.8%	11.6%	9.1%	4.8%	6.06	5.44	-0.1
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	114	511	118	64	23	92%	4.6	23.1%	12.5%	10.6%	4.5%	6.06	5.33	+0.1
2026	22	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	24	24	93	420	86	60	10	100%	3.9	17.6%	12.9%	4.8%	2.6%	5.52	4.68	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	24	24	93	420	86	60	10	100%	3.9	17.6%	12.9%	4.8%	2.6%	5.52	4.68	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	24	24	93	420	86	60	10	100%	3.9	20.5%	14.3%	6.2%	2.4%	5.52	4.58	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	8	43	193	41	25	14	80%	4.3	21.2%	13.0%	8.3%	7.3%	7.17	7.20	-0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAA	12	12	65	274	57	34	10	100%	5.4	20.7%	12.5%	8.2%	3.6%	5.04	5.30	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	144	609	131	69	22	100%	5.6	21.6%	11.3%	10.3%	3.5%	4.99	5.03	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	25	25	144	609	134	64	21	100%	5.8	22.0%	10.6%	11.4%	3.5%	4.90	4.87	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	67	282	63	29	10	100%	6.1	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	3.5%	4.84	4.82	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	62	260	58	27	9	100%	6.2	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	3.5%	4.84	4.84	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	57	239	53	25	9	100%	6.3	22.1%	10.5%	11.5%	3.6%	4.89	4.93	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	47	198	42	21	7	100%	5.8	21.5%	10.8%	10.7%	3.7%	5.01	5.09	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAA	6	6	36	152	32	17	6	100%	6.0	20.8%	11.1%	9.7%	3.9%	5.18	5.30	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	97	410	88	46	15	100%	5.7	21.6%	11.3%	10.3%	3.6%	5.03	5.07	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	20	20	115	486	107	51	17	100%	5.8	22.0%	10.6%	11.4%	3.6%	4.94	4.91	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	58	245	54	25	9	100%	5.8	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	3.5%	4.88	4.86	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	55	232	52	24	8	100%	6.1	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	3.6%	4.88	4.88	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	52	220	48	23	8	100%	5.8	22.1%	10.5%	11.5%	3.7%	4.93	4.97	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	43	182	39	20	7	100%	6.1	21.5%	10.8%	10.7%	3.8%	5.05	5.13	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	34	144	30	16	6	100%	5.7	20.8%	11.1%	9.7%	4.0%	5.22	5.34	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	85	498	2114	460	231	84	98%	5.7	21.8%	10.9%	10.8%	4.0%	5.16	4.82	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	850	185	93	34	98%	5.7	21.8%	10.9%	10.8%	4.0%	5.16	4.82	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		93	91	430	1838	383	199	58	98%	4.6	20.8%	10.8%	10.0%	3.1%	4.52	4.44	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	855	178	93	27	98%	4.6	20.8%	10.8%	10.0%	3.1%	4.52	4.44	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 93 IPFIP 4.49 → 4.68 (+0.19)K% 20.5% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.48%	—	×0.860	17.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.62%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.49 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 82 IPFIP 4.81 → 5.16 (+0.35)K% 23.0% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.97%	—	×0.860	19.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.43%	—	×0.900	11.19%
HR / BF /BF	3.78%	÷0.989	×1.100	4.21%

Result: FIP 4.81 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 136 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.50 (+0.77)K% 27.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.37%	—	×0.810	22.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.26%	—	×1.100	7.99%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷0.976	×1.200	2.29%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 53 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.53 (+1.01)K% 31.7% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.70%	—	×0.770	24.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.150	12.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.34%	÷0.990	×1.250	1.69%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AInland Empire 66ers · 15 IPFIP 2.73 → 4.09 (+1.37)K% 31.6% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.58%	—	×0.740	23.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.180	12.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷0.897	×1.300	2.54%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 2.73 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Angels · 7 IPFIP 1.07 → 1.72 (+0.65)K% 24.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.680	16.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.943	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 1.07 → 1.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caden Dana (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.93	21.9%	11.0%	355	-0.37	—	—	—
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	87
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	84
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	84
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	84
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	83
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	83
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	83
Wyatt Marks R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	21.3%	10.7%	2.8%	.301	6.34	9.5%	-10.4%	18	+2.14	4.20	152	83
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	83
Austin Brice R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.72	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.89	3.42	542	82
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	82
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	82
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	82
Andrew Hoffmann R 2023 · 5.35 FIP	23	SP	5.35	19.6%	10.8%	4.6%	.334	4.04	20.6%	10.6%	147	-1.31	3.17	422	82
Kyle Wright R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	21.1%	8.6%	3.5%	.307	3.62	22.1%	13.8%	355	-0.70	3.32	669	81
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	81
Blade Tidwell R 2024 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	19.0%	11.2%	3.6%	.274	4.11	21.1%	11.9%	241	-0.76	3.89	479	81
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.75	21.2%	12.0%	217	+0.23	4.39	458	80
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	80
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	83	21.6%	11.2%	1.47	5.08
Rich DeLucia ('90-'99, 1 WAR*)	3.1	78	23.2%*	10.5%*	1.55*	4.65*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78