Caden Dana
P
Salt Lake Bees
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 22
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.2 · 2029
ERA6.08
FIP5.29
xFIP4.48
SIERA4.58
K%21.7%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%10.4%
IP119
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2029
K†5560
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p6928.2%
K%
p5723.4%
xwOBA vs
p270.339
SL (27%)
CU (8%)
FB-1.8 (45%)
CH-4.2 (19%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 4 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.48 | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 14 | 14 | 68 | 281 | 89 | 30 | 4 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 1.8% | 3.56 | 3.64 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 20 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 26 | 26 | 146 | 589 | 155 | 46 | 15 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 3.02 | 3.97 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 21 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 25 | 23 | 114 | 511 | 118 | 64 | 23 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 4.9% | 6.06 | 5.64 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | LAA | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 46 | 23 | 8 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 4.1% | 6.17 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAA | 26 | 26 | 144 | 607 | 141 | 62 | 24 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 5.43 | 5.00 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAA | 30 | 30 | 163 | 689 | 164 | 66 | 27 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 5.04 | 4.82 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 32 | 32 | 177 | 749 | 180 | 69 | 29 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 4.71 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 32 | 32 | 177 | 749 | 181 | 68 | 28 | 24.2% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 4.74 | 4.68 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 32 | 32 | 176 | 743 | 180 | 68 | 28 | 24.2% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 4.71 | 4.69 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 32 | 32 | 173 | 732 | 177 | 67 | 28 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.71 | 4.71 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 31 | 31 | 170 | 716 | 169 | 66 | 28 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 4.76 | 4.79 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 30 | 30 | 164 | 694 | 160 | 65 | 27 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 4.83 | 4.88 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 29 | 29 | 159 | 670 | 151 | 63 | 27 | 22.5% | 9.5% | 4.0% | 4.92 | 4.99 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 28 | 28 | 152 | 643 | 141 | 62 | 26 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 5.03 | 5.10 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 26 | 26 | 145 | 614 | 130 | 60 | 26 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 5.15 | 5.23 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 25 | 25 | 138 | 583 | 120 | 58 | 25 | 20.5% | 10.0% | 4.3% | 5.28 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 24 | 24 | 130 | 550 | 109 | 56 | 24 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 4.4% | 5.42 | 5.52 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 67 | 337 | 1418 | 311 | 152 | 48 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.25 | 4.44 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 40 | 200 | 842 | 185 | 90 | 28 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.25 | 4.44 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caden Dana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.29 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 4.1% | — | 4.83 | 23.7% | 14.1% | 484 | -0.46 | — | — | — |
| TJ Shook R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% | .311 | 4.99 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.09 | 3.35 | 394 | 86 |
| Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 86 |
| Luis Romero R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 4.0% | .367 | 4.22 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.71 | 3.99 | 293 | 86 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 85 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 85 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 85 |
| Scott Williams R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.66 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 3.5% | .256 | 2.89 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 42 | -1.77 | 2.89 | 119 | 85 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 84 |
| Jacob Wallace R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.31 | 26.6% | 13.1% | 3.3% | .316 | 4.79 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 167 | +0.48 | 3.93 | 258 | 84 |
| Todd Peterson R 2027 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.82 | 15.0% | 4.3% | 124 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 175 | 84 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 84 |
| Ismael Cabrera R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 3.2% | .276 | 5.22 | 16.9% | 6.5% | 95 | +0.43 | 3.56 | 133 | 84 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 84 |
| Kyle Bischoff R 2028 · 5.41 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.41 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 5.1% | .240 | 3.50 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 94 | -1.91 | 3.24 | 116 | 84 |
| Colin McKee R 2028 · 5.04 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.04 | 24.2% | 14.7% | 3.9% | .330 | 4.35 | 27.7% | 12.9% | 97 | -0.69 | 4.16 | 148 | 84 |
| Chris Gau R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.18 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.58 | 2.98 | 211 | 84 |
| Aaron Holiday R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.81 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .310 | 5.20 | 19.7% | -3.3% | 59 | +0.39 | 4.72 | 116 | 84 |
| Grant Judkins R 2027 · 5.71 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.71 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 5.4% | .346 | 5.64 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | -0.07 | 5.17 | 322 | 84 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.84 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .254 | 4.24 | 18.1% | 6.2% | 130 | -0.60 | 4.16 | 159 | 83 |
| Justin Evans R 2028 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.35 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 4.5% | .333 | 3.90 | 22.0% | 5.5% | 65 | -1.45 | 3.64 | 105 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2024
Service 2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2030
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.3M | — | — | — |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$2M |
| Totals | $13M | $16M | +$3M | ||