Caden Dana
P
Salt Lake Bees
Age 22
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.4 · 2030
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142132vR 123
ERA5.16
FIP5.46
K%22.3%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%9.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p6928.2%
K%
p5723.4%
xwOBA vs
p270.339
SL (27%)
CU (8%)
FB-1.8 (45%)
CH-4.2 (19%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.1 | 21.6% | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.0% | 6.48 | 1.62 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.1 | 21.6% | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.0% | 6.48 | 1.54 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 68 | 281 | 89 | 30 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 1.9% | 3.56 | 3.69 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 68 | 281 | 89 | 30 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 31.7% | 10.7% | 21.0% | 1.4% | 3.56 | 2.57 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 146 | 589 | 155 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 3.02 | 4.01 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 146 | 589 | 155 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.3% | 7.8% | 18.5% | 2.5% | 3.02 | 3.26 | +3.7 |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 114 | 511 | 118 | 64 | 23 | 92% | 4.6 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 6.06 | 5.65 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 114 | 511 | 118 | 64 | 23 | 92% | 4.6 | 23.1% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | 6.06 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 13 | 13 | 47 | 210 | 45 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 3.6 | 18.9% | 13.0% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 5.13 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 61 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 5.16 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAA | 7 | 7 | 36 | 152 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 5.12 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 112 | 484 | 106 | 60 | 16 | — | — | 21.9% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 5.15 | 5.09 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 36 | 150 | 34 | 19 | 6 | — | — | 22.3% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 5.12 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAA | 32 | 32 | 170 | 717 | 165 | 80 | 29 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 4.0% | 5.11 | 5.15 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAA | 31 | 31 | 175 | 739 | 173 | 77 | 29 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 4.99 | 4.95 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 30 | 30 | 177 | 748 | 178 | 74 | 29 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 3.8% | 4.89 | 4.84 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 30 | 30 | 177 | 748 | 179 | 74 | 29 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 4.80 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 29 | 29 | 174 | 737 | 176 | 73 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 3.9% | 4.84 | 4.84 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 29 | 29 | 174 | 737 | 175 | 74 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 4.0% | 4.89 | 4.92 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAA | 24 | 24 | 128 | 540 | 124 | 60 | 21 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 5.07 | 5.11 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAA | 26 | 26 | 148 | 625 | 147 | 65 | 24 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 4.95 | 4.91 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 27 | 27 | 158 | 667 | 159 | 66 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 3.8% | 4.85 | 4.80 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 165 | 68 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 4.76 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 27 | 27 | 162 | 684 | 164 | 68 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 3.8% | 4.80 | 4.80 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 27 | 27 | 164 | 692 | 165 | 70 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 4.85 | 4.88 | +1.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 178 | 176 | 1001 | 4239 | 997 | 441 | 169 | 99% | 5.6 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 4.0% | 4.99 | 4.62 | +9.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 847 | 199 | 88 | 34 | 99% | 5.6 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 4.0% | 4.99 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 82 | 80 | 384 | 1628 | 350 | 179 | 54 | 98% | 4.7 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.49 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 42 | 200 | 847 | 182 | 93 | 28 | 98% | 4.7 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caden Dana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.46 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 4.2% | — | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.9% | 522 | -0.48 | — | — | — |
| TJ Shook R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 87 |
| Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 86 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 83 |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.78 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.8% | .276 | 5.00 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 296 | +0.22 | 4.22 | 513 | 82 |
| Gabriel Hughes R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.02 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 4.6% | .302 | 3.95 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.58 | 210 | 82 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 82 |
| Frank German R 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.10 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 3.8% | .308 | 4.77 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 123 | -0.33 | 3.16 | 218 | 82 |
| Jacob Zibin R 2025 · 5.64 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.64 | 21.2% | 12.4% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 122 | 80 |
| Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.36 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.57 | 21.5% | 2.4% | 151 | +0.21 | 4.05 | 215 | 80 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 78 |
| Khristian Curtis R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.58 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 183 | -0.81 | 4.52 | 258 | 78 |
| Will Bednar R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.57 | 20.5% | 14.1% | 4.4% | .173 | 4.70 | 26.6% | 6.3% | 95 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 172 | 77 |
| Brandon White R 2027 · 5.11 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.11 | 16.7% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .264 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 245 | -1.01 | 3.90 | 264 | 77 |
| Michael Forret R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.32 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 253 | 77 |
| Grant Judkins R 2027 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 77 |
| Will Sanders R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.17 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 4.0% | .297 | 4.04 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 167 | -1.13 | 3.89 | 259 | 77 |
| Hyun-Seok Jang R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.11 | 20.3% | 11.6% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.11 | 127 | 77 |
| Bryce Conley R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .269 | 4.98 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.04 | 4.60 | 529 | 76 |
| Chase Solesky R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.35 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 5.3% | .362 | 4.79 | 13.7% | 5.0% | 311 | -0.56 | 4.08 | 536 | 76 |
| Damon Casetta-Stubbs R 2026 · 6.51 FIP | 22 | SP | 6.51 | 23.1% | 17.1% | 5.8% | .284 | 6.65 | 10.5% | -6.5% | 37 | +0.14 | 4.27 | 122 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 164 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 1.52 | 4.94 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |