Caden Dana — OGILVIE

Caden Dana P Salt Lake Bees

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.5 · 2030 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.08

FIP5.32

K%21.9%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL4045

CMD4045

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

SL (27%)

CU (8%)

FB-1.8 (45%)

CH-4.2 (19%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.0M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$6M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-4	$10M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	8	37	8	1	0	100%	2.1	21.6%	2.7%	18.9%	0.0%	6.48	1.62	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	8	37	8	1	0	100%	2.1	21.6%	2.7%	18.9%	0.0%	6.48	1.54	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	68	281	89	30	4	100%	4.9	24.2%	12.3%	11.9%	1.9%	3.56	3.64	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	68	281	89	30	4	100%	4.9	24.2%	12.3%	11.9%	1.9%	3.56	3.64	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	68	281	89	30	4	100%	4.9	31.7%	10.7%	21.0%	1.4%	3.56	2.57	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	146	589	155	46	15	100%	5.6	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.9%	3.02	3.95	+1.6
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	146	589	155	46	15	100%	5.6	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.9%	3.02	3.95	+1.6
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	146	589	155	46	15	100%	5.6	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	2.5%	3.02	3.26	+3.0
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	114	511	118	64	23	92%	4.6	20.3%	11.6%	8.6%	4.8%	6.06	5.48	-0.7
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	114	511	118	64	23	92%	4.6	20.3%	11.6%	8.6%	4.8%	6.06	5.48	-0.7
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	114	511	118	64	23	92%	4.6	23.1%	12.5%	10.6%	4.5%	6.06	5.33	-0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	8	43	193	41	25	14	80%	4.3	21.2%	13.0%	8.3%	7.3%	7.17	7.20	-1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	23	23	88	400	85	58	9	100%	3.8	17.6%	13.1%	4.6%	2.5%	5.52	4.62	—
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	23	23	88	400	85	58	9	100%	3.8	17.6%	13.1%	4.6%	2.5%	5.52	4.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AAA RAW	LAA	23	23	88	400	85	58	9	100%	3.8	21.2%	14.5%	6.8%	2.2%	5.52	4.38	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	LAA	2	2	13	55	12	6	2	100%	6.5	21.9%	11.4%	10.5%	4.1%	5.08	5.32	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB CTX	LAA	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	21.9%	11.4%	10.5%	4.2%	5.12	5.36	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	101	455	97	64	11	—	—	21.3%	14.1%	7.2%	2.5%	5.47	4.71	+0.2
FULL	22	MLB A+C	LAA	—	—	1	6	1	1	0	—	—	21.9%	11.4%	10.5%	4.2%	5.12	4.98	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAA	32	32	170	717	162	74	28	100%	5.3	22.7%	10.4%	12.3%	3.9%	5.01	5.04	-0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	31	31	175	739	171	72	28	100%	5.6	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	3.8%	4.90	4.87	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	30	30	177	748	176	71	28	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.5%	14.0%	3.8%	4.81	4.77	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	30	30	177	748	177	70	28	100%	5.9	23.6%	9.4%	14.3%	3.8%	4.76	4.74	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	29	29	174	737	174	70	28	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.5%	14.2%	3.8%	4.77	4.78	+0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	29	29	174	737	173	71	29	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.6%	13.9%	3.9%	4.82	4.86	+0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	28	28	167	703	161	69	29	100%	6.0	22.9%	9.8%	13.1%	4.1%	4.94	5.02	-0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	157	661	147	67	28	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.1%	12.1%	4.3%	5.11	5.23	-0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	92	388	88	40	16	100%	5.4	22.7%	10.4%	12.3%	4.0%	5.05	5.08	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	23	23	127	536	124	52	21	100%	5.5	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	3.9%	4.94	4.91	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	25	25	146	616	145	58	24	100%	5.8	23.5%	9.5%	14.0%	3.9%	4.85	4.81	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	26	26	156	659	156	62	25	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.4%	14.3%	3.8%	4.80	4.78	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	26	26	158	667	158	63	26	100%	6.1	23.6%	9.5%	14.2%	3.9%	4.81	4.82	+0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	27	27	161	680	160	65	27	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.6%	13.9%	4.0%	4.86	4.90	+0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	26	26	155	654	150	64	27	100%	6.0	22.9%	9.8%	13.1%	4.1%	4.98	5.06	-0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAA	24	24	147	621	138	63	27	100%	6.1	22.2%	10.1%	12.1%	4.3%	5.16	5.28	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		205	203	1187	5024	1161	495	207	99%	5.8	23.1%	9.8%	13.3%	4.1%	5.01	4.66	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	847	196	83	35	99%	5.8	23.1%	9.8%	13.3%	4.1%	5.01	4.66	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		92	90	425	1818	377	197	57	98%	4.6	20.7%	10.8%	9.9%	3.1%	4.51	4.43	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	856	177	93	27	98%	4.6	20.7%	10.8%	9.9%	3.1%	4.51	4.43	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caden Dana (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	21.9%	11.4%	4.1%	—	4.89	23.1%	13.2%	522	-0.43	—	—	—
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	85
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	85
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	83
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	83
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	82
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	81
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	81
Gabriel Hughes R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP	5.12	22.2%	10.0%	4.8%	.302	3.83	18.2%	10.6%	201	-1.29	3.10	267	81
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	79
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	79
Chase Solesky R 2021 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP	5.15	21.3%	9.2%	4.9%	.362	4.77	13.5%	5.3%	311	-0.38	4.07	563	79
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	78
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	77
Cooper Bradford R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP	4.99	18.0%	8.5%	4.2%	.393	4.99	17.6%	4.8%	106	+0.00	4.97	136	77
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	76
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	76
Archie Bradley R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	16.0%	10.4%	2.4%	.315	3.25	24.6%	16.2%	327	-1.15	2.23	570	76
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	76
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	76
Jake Miller R 2022 · 5.82 FIP	22	SP	5.82	23.2%	8.6%	6.5%	.299	4.32	15.5%	5.8%	119	-1.50	3.64	202	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	167	23.1%	9.9%	1.52	4.90
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54