Garrett Horn — OGILVIE

Garrett Horn P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%22.6%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	41	169	55	20	2	100%	3.0	22.0%	13.6%	8.4%	0.9%	3.27	3.45	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	41	169	55	20	2	100%	3.0	22.0%	13.6%	8.4%	0.9%	3.27	3.45	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	14	41	169	55	20	2	100%	3.0	32.5%	11.8%	20.7%	1.2%	3.27	2.52	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	6	5	17	67	19	10	2	83%	2.8	—	—	—	—	2.70	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	6	5	17	67	19	10	2	83%	2.8	—	—	—	—	2.70	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	MIN	2	2	6	20	5	2	0	100%	3.0	25.0%	10.0%	15.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.26	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIN	4	3	11	47	14	8	2	75%	2.7	29.8%	17.0%	12.8%	4.3%	4.22	5.08	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIN	7	7	38	161	37	18	4	100%	5.4	23.2%	11.3%	11.9%	2.8%	4.55	4.48	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIN	3	3	16	68	16	8	2	100%	5.3	23.2%	11.3%	11.9%	2.8%	4.55	4.48	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	16	69	16	8	2	100%	5.5	23.2%	11.3%	11.9%	2.8%	4.55	4.10	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	195	98	24	100%	5.6	23.2%	11.3%	11.9%	2.8%	4.55	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		20	19	58	236	56	33	3	95%	2.9	23.8%	14.0%	9.8%	1.5%	3.10	3.67	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	66	200	814	194	114	12	95%	2.9	23.8%	14.0%	9.8%	1.5%	3.10	3.67	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Horn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	22.6%	12.5%	2.8%	—	4.48	23.2%	11.9%	38	-0.21	—	—	—
Jagger Haynes L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.0%	2.1%	.303	5.02	17.7%	3.7%	343	+0.77	4.25	368	81
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	78
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	77
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	75
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	74
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	74
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	74
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	73
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	72
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	72
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.71	19.6%	9.4%	345	-0.21	3.26	448	72
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	71
Kyle Backhus L 2021 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.2%	11.3%	1.9%	.280	3.50	22.9%	11.4%	153	-0.81	2.78	267	71
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	70
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	70
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	69
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	69
Ian Seymour L 2022 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	23.0%	16.3%	3.0%	.450	3.08	23.8%	17.2%	310	-1.82	2.92	485	69
Tanner Scott L 2017 · 3.71 FIP	23	SP	3.71	24.3%	17.4%	0.8%	.277	3.10	28.8%	17.5%	158	-0.61	1.67	694	68
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	23.0%	11.8%	1.08	4.60
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19