Riley Frey — OGILVIE

Riley Frey P Rome Emperors

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 185 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%17.9%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	21	88	28	6	2	100%	3.5	22.5%	7.5%	15.0%	3.4%	5.57	4.00	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	21	88	28	6	2	100%	3.5	22.5%	7.5%	15.0%	3.4%	5.57	4.00	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	21	88	28	6	2	100%	3.5	31.8%	6.8%	25.0%	2.3%	5.57	2.53	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	84	339	74	22	5	67%	4.7	16.6%	7.5%	9.1%	2.2%	2.36	3.87	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	84	339	74	22	5	67%	4.7	16.6%	7.5%	9.1%	2.2%	2.36	3.87	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	12	84	339	74	22	5	67%	4.7	21.8%	6.5%	15.3%	1.5%	2.36	2.90	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	9	80	336	83	24	8	41%	3.7	19.2%	7.9%	11.3%	4.4%	4.37	4.90	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	9	80	336	83	24	8	41%	3.7	19.2%	7.9%	11.3%	4.4%	4.37	4.90	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	9	80	336	83	24	8	41%	3.7	24.7%	7.1%	17.6%	2.4%	4.37	3.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	28	0	39	158	41	7	6	0%	1.4	19.2%	5.1%	14.2%	5.5%	3.49	5.14	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	28	0	39	158	41	7	6	0%	1.4	19.2%	5.1%	14.2%	5.5%	3.49	5.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	ATL	25	0	33	136	34	6	6	0%	1.3	25.0%	4.4%	20.6%	4.4%	4.09	3.97	—
2026	24	AA RAW	ATL	3	0	6	22	7	1	0	0%	1.9	31.8%	4.5%	27.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	ATL	5	0	6	24	4	2	1	0%	1.1	17.9%	7.8%	10.0%	3.2%	4.71	4.71	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	44	182	45	9	7	—	—	24.9%	4.9%	20.0%	3.7%	3.65	5.09	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ATL	73	0	76	323	61	25	10	0%	1.0	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	3.2%	4.64	4.61	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	ATL	73	0	76	323	63	26	10	0%	1.0	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.59	4.57	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	ATL	72	0	75	318	62	26	10	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	3.2%	4.59	4.60	-0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	ATL	70	0	73	309	60	25	10	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.2%	11.3%	3.3%	4.63	4.67	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	ATL	66	0	70	295	57	25	10	0%	1.1	19.3%	8.5%	10.9%	3.4%	4.73	4.80	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	ATL	62	0	66	277	53	24	10	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.8%	10.2%	3.6%	4.88	4.98	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	ATL	31	0	33	139	26	11	4	0%	1.1	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	3.2%	4.64	4.61	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	ATL	49	0	51	215	42	17	7	0%	1.0	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.59	4.57	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	ATL	55	0	58	245	48	20	8	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	3.2%	4.59	4.60	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	ATL	58	0	61	258	50	21	8	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.2%	11.3%	3.3%	4.63	4.67	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	ATL	58	0	61	258	50	22	9	0%	1.1	19.3%	8.5%	10.9%	3.4%	4.73	4.80	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	ATL	56	0	59	249	47	22	9	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.8%	10.2%	3.6%	4.88	4.98	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		308	0	324	1366	264	113	45	0%	1.1	19.3%	8.3%	11.1%	3.3%	4.68	4.34	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	70	28	0%	1.1	19.3%	8.3%	11.1%	3.3%	4.68	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		74	27	224	921	171	67	34	36%	3.0	18.5%	7.2%	11.3%	3.7%	3.58	4.48	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	24	200	822	152	59	30	36%	3.0	18.5%	7.2%	11.3%	3.7%	3.58	4.48	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Frey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	17.9%	7.8%	3.2%	—	4.59	19.3%	11.3%	228	-0.12	—	—	—
Brad Hand L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	25	SW	3.95	16.4%	7.6%	2.3%	.326	2.71	32.9%	25.0%	241	-1.24	0.84	577	85
Austin Hamilton L 2018 · 4.49 FIP	24	SW	4.49	14.6%	6.5%	3.3%	.323	4.02	17.3%	9.4%	68	-0.47	4.02	135	82
Samuel Strickland L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	24	SW	4.87	19.5%	7.3%	4.5%	.337	3.53	20.1%	14.4%	148	-1.34	2.91	292	81
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	81
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	81
Ben Wereski L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	24	SU	4.78	18.6%	7.6%	4.2%	.287	3.73	29.0%	21.6%	20	-1.05	3.73	132	80
Matt Crouse L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	12.0%	6.3%	2.0%	.276	4.40	12.2%	4.3%	268	+0.41	3.99	342	80
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	79
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	78
Shane McCain L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	18.3%	8.7%	3.3%	.261	5.14	14.2%	10.7%	51	+0.66	4.34	201	78
Jordan Harrison L 2015 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	15.6%	9.0%	2.0%	.263	4.14	16.3%	0.5%	152	+0.10	3.80	244	77
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	77
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	77
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	77
Haylen Green L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	16.9%	8.1%	2.4%	.291	4.09	18.6%	7.8%	49	+0.07	4.02	104	77
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	77
Robby Scott L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	25	SU	4.06	17.3%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	3.64	23.3%	15.8%	162	-0.42	2.39	285	76
Jack Owen L 2022 · 4.00 FIP	24	SW	4.00	19.2%	7.4%	2.9%	.293	4.38	13.5%	6.4%	113	+0.38	3.44	221	76
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	76
Dalton Moats L 2019 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.5%	8.1%	3.8%	.286	4.48	22.2%	16.4%	83	-0.19	3.23	322	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	72	19.1%	8.2%	1.27	4.68
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79