Riley Frey
P
Rome Emperors
Age 24
LHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111120vR 129
ERA4.89
FIP4.89
K%17.9%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 6 | 21 | 88 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 3.5 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 3.5% | 5.57 | 4.04 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 6 | 21 | 88 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 3.5 | 31.8% | 6.8% | 25.0% | 2.3% | 5.57 | 2.53 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 12 | 84 | 339 | 74 | 22 | 5 | 67% | 4.7 | 16.6% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 2.36 | 4.18 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 12 | 84 | 339 | 74 | 22 | 5 | 67% | 4.7 | 21.8% | 6.5% | 15.3% | 1.5% | 2.36 | 2.90 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 9 | 80 | 336 | 83 | 24 | 8 | 41% | 3.7 | 19.2% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 5.7% | 4.37 | 5.58 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 9 | 80 | 336 | 83 | 24 | 8 | 41% | 3.7 | 24.7% | 7.1% | 17.6% | 2.4% | 4.37 | 3.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 22 | 0 | 28 | 114 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.2% | 5.0% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 3.18 | 4.00 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 51 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.89 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 96 | 398 | 78 | 28 | 13 | — | — | 19.6% | 7.0% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.63 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 54 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 56 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.72 | 0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 37 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 71 | 0 | 75 | 316 | 61 | 26 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.36 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 163 | 70 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 68 | 27 | 214 | 877 | 161 | 64 | 35 | 40% | 3.1 | 18.4% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 3.54 | 4.68 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 25 | 200 | 821 | 151 | 60 | 33 | 40% | 3.1 | 18.4% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 3.54 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Frey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.89 | 17.9% | 8.1% | 3.5% | — | 4.74 | 19.1% | 11.1% | 136 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Brad Hand L 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.3% | .326 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.15 | 0.84 | 577 | 84 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.23 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 3.54 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 62 | -1.69 | 3.54 | 186 | 83 |
| Samuel Strickland L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 4.5% | .337 | 3.71 | 20.5% | 14.3% | 133 | -1.15 | 3.09 | 277 | 83 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 81 |
| Austin Hamilton L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.37 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .323 | 4.06 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 68 | -0.31 | 4.06 | 135 | 80 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 80 |
| Matt Crouse L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.97 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 2.0% | .276 | 4.32 | 12.2% | 4.3% | 268 | +0.35 | 3.97 | 342 | 78 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 78 |
| Matt Walker L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.74 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .338 | 4.62 | 12.7% | 2.7% | 41 | -0.12 | 4.27 | 156 | 77 |
| Stu Flesland III L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.14 | 16.6% | 7.4% | 4.5% | .261 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 8.2% | 44 | -0.83 | 3.44 | 211 | 77 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 76 |
| Jack Owen L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 19.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 13.5% | 6.4% | 113 | +0.46 | 3.31 | 221 | 76 |
| Braulio Lara L 2028 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 76 |
| Matt Tracy L 2028 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .306 | 4.04 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.03 | 3.24 | 298 | 75 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 75 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .261 | 4.93 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 51 | +0.70 | 4.19 | 201 | 75 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.67 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 208 | +0.95 | 2.03 | 402 | 74 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 74 |
| Robby Scott L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.06 | 17.3% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .307 | 3.61 | 23.3% | 15.8% | 162 | -0.45 | 2.34 | 285 | 74 |
| Jackson Stoeckinger L 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.62 | 13.5% | 6.9% | 3.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 184 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 18.7% | 8.1% | 1.32 | 4.81 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |