Caden Favors
P
Akron RubberDucks
+0.5
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'1" / 219 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%10.2%
IP76
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 4 | 1 | 12 | 53 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 18.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.09 | 3.80 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 25 | 25 | 108 | 463 | 113 | 52 | 8 | 18.8% | 12.9% | 2.1% | 4.08 | 4.33 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 2 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 12 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.93 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CLE | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 68 | 35 | 9 | 21.1% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 86 | 358 | 80 | 40 | 9 | 22.2% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 4.18 | 4.07 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 14 | 14 | 77 | 324 | 70 | 33 | 9 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.46 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 14 | 14 | 77 | 324 | 72 | 33 | 9 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.43 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 14 | 14 | 76 | 322 | 71 | 32 | 9 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 70 | 32 | 9 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.45 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 73 | 310 | 68 | 32 | 9 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 66 | 31 | 9 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.56 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 63 | 30 | 9 | 21.6% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.64 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 59 | 29 | 9 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 56 | 29 | 8 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 52 | 28 | 8 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.86 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 48 | 27 | 8 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 44 | 25 | 8 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 5.10 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 28 | 129 | 554 | 109 | 67 | 12 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.1% | 3.76 | 4.12 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 43 | 200 | 857 | 169 | 104 | 19 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.1% | 3.76 | 4.12 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caden Favors (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 21.1% | 10.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.44 | 22.0% | 11.8% | 230 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 95 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 94 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 93 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 93 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 92 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 90 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 88 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 88 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 88 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.07 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .281 | 3.14 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 42 | -0.93 | 3.14 | 151 | 88 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 88 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.57 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .275 | 4.89 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.32 | 3.57 | 146 | 87 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.38 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.05 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 51 | +0.67 | 4.31 | 201 | 86 |
| Brian Flynn L 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 86 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.67 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 148 | 86 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.77 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .335 | 4.51 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 80 | +0.74 | 3.58 | 206 | 85 |
| Diego Barrera L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .310 | 3.67 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 44 | -0.05 | 3.67 | 111 | 85 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 85 |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.61 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.7% | .289 | 3.60 | 24.1% | 7.7% | 60 | -1.01 | 3.60 | 136 | 85 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.43 | 22.5% | 12.6% | 1.2% | .318 | 4.79 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 91 | +1.36 | 3.43 | 152 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.2 | $1M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $6M | $12M | +$5M | ||