Caden Favors — OGILVIE

Caden Favors P Akron RubberDucks

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 219 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION128 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%20.1%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CMD4050

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	4	1	12	53	13	2	1	25%	2.9	18.2%	4.5%	13.7%	2.9%	3.09	3.73	—
2024	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	4	1	12	53	13	2	1	25%	2.9	18.2%	4.5%	13.7%	2.9%	3.09	3.73	—
2024	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	4	1	12	53	13	2	1	25%	2.9	24.5%	3.8%	20.8%	1.9%	3.09	2.50	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	25	25	108	463	113	52	8	100%	4.3	18.8%	12.9%	5.9%	2.1%	4.08	4.32	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	25	25	108	463	113	52	8	100%	4.3	18.8%	12.9%	5.9%	2.1%	4.08	4.32	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	25	25	108	463	113	52	8	100%	4.3	24.4%	11.2%	13.2%	1.7%	4.08	3.41	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	26	25	128	540	140	48	22	96%	4.9	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	4.9%	4.71	5.25	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	26	25	128	540	140	48	22	96%	4.9	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	4.9%	4.71	5.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	CLE	26	25	128	540	140	48	22	96%	4.9	25.9%	8.9%	17.0%	4.1%	4.71	4.27	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CLE	1	1	8	32	6	4	1	100%	7.6	20.1%	12.2%	7.8%	2.8%	4.85	4.85	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	136	572	146	52	23	—	—	25.6%	9.1%	16.5%	4.0%	4.72	5.23	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	145	612	130	68	17	100%	5.8	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	2.8%	4.68	4.61	+0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	CLE	26	26	157	663	145	71	18	100%	6.0	21.8%	10.8%	11.1%	2.8%	4.58	4.53	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	CLE	26	26	155	653	142	70	19	100%	5.9	21.8%	10.7%	11.2%	2.8%	4.56	4.55	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	150	633	137	68	19	100%	6.0	21.7%	10.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.60	4.63	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	CLE	24	24	143	605	130	66	19	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.0%	10.5%	3.1%	4.69	4.76	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	135	568	120	64	19	100%	6.1	21.1%	11.3%	9.8%	3.3%	4.84	4.94	-0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	126	530	110	62	19	100%	6.0	20.7%	11.6%	9.1%	3.5%	5.02	5.14	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	64	270	57	30	7	100%	5.8	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	2.8%	4.68	4.61	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	105	443	97	48	12	100%	5.8	21.8%	10.8%	11.1%	2.8%	4.58	4.53	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	120	507	111	54	14	100%	6.0	21.8%	10.7%	11.2%	2.8%	4.56	4.55	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	126	532	115	57	16	100%	6.0	21.7%	10.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.60	4.63	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	126	532	114	58	16	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.0%	10.5%	3.1%	4.69	4.76	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	121	511	108	58	17	100%	6.0	21.1%	11.3%	9.8%	3.3%	4.84	4.94	-0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	CLE	19	19	115	486	101	56	17	100%	6.1	20.7%	11.6%	9.1%	3.5%	5.02	5.14	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		130	130	777	3279	703	361	100	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	3.1%	4.71	4.36	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	181	93	26	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	3.1%	4.71	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		55	51	248	1056	210	115	38	93%	4.5	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	3.6%	4.36	4.77	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	41	200	853	170	93	31	93%	4.5	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	3.6%	4.36	4.77	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caden Favors (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	20.1%	12.2%	2.8%	—	4.56	21.6%	10.8%	457	-0.29	—	—	—
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	87
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	85
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	84
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	83
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	83
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	83
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	19.3%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.49	24.7%	15.9%	190	-1.69	2.88	532	83
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	82
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	81
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	81
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	80
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	80
Caleb Franzen L 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	16.2%	10.1%	2.0%	.336	5.82	12.6%	0.2%	42	+1.72	4.10	155	80
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	80
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	80
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	80
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	79
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	79
Manny Banuelos L 2015 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.9%	11.5%	1.4%	.271	3.88	19.6%	8.7%	252	-0.00	2.95	486	79
David Parkinson L 2019 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	19.6%	8.8%	2.1%	.303	5.44	16.0%	8.2%	78	+1.74	3.07	517	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	137	21.3%	11.1%	1.16	4.71
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98