Caden Favors
P
Akron RubberDucks
Age 24
LHP
6'1" / 219 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 128
ERA4.83
FIP4.83
K%20.1%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%8.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 4 | 1 | 12 | 53 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 25% | 2.9 | 18.2% | 4.5% | 13.7% | 3.6% | 3.09 | 4.09 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 4 | 1 | 12 | 53 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 25% | 2.9 | 24.5% | 3.8% | 20.8% | 1.9% | 3.09 | 2.50 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 25 | 25 | 108 | 463 | 113 | 52 | 8 | 100% | 4.3 | 18.8% | 12.9% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 4.08 | 4.31 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 25 | 25 | 108 | 463 | 113 | 52 | 8 | 100% | 4.3 | 24.4% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 1.7% | 4.08 | 3.41 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 17 | 17 | 79 | 343 | 82 | 39 | 14 | 100% | 4.6 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.72 | 5.74 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 55 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.1% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CLE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 143 | 617 | 137 | 72 | 22 | — | — | 22.2% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 5.32 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 20.1% | 12.1% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 109 | 461 | 98 | 50 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 112 | 54 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.51 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 119 | 504 | 110 | 53 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 116 | 489 | 106 | 52 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.61 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 18 | 18 | 110 | 467 | 100 | 51 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 43 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 75 | 36 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.51 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 86 | 42 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 90 | 44 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 88 | 45 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 70 | 417 | 1761 | 381 | 189 | 51 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.22 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 91 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 46 | 43 | 198 | 859 | 163 | 105 | 28 | 93% | 4.3 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.87 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 43 | 200 | 866 | 164 | 106 | 29 | 93% | 4.3 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.87 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caden Favors (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 20.1% | 12.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.55 | 21.6% | 10.9% | 350 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.73 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .295 | 3.97 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 40 | +0.24 | 3.73 | 245 | 85 |
| Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 84 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 83 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 21.5% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.13 | 20.5% | 7.4% | 96 | -0.70 | 3.84 | 249 | 81 |
| Shane Drohan L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.30 | 20.1% | 13.8% | 3.9% | .308 | 3.29 | 25.5% | 16.3% | 142 | -2.01 | 2.91 | 484 | 81 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.01 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .309 | 3.25 | 22.6% | 14.9% | 148 | -1.76 | 2.44 | 496 | 81 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.02 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 104 | 81 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.72 | 24.0% | 13.7% | 1.7% | .240 | 4.62 | 27.5% | 11.6% | 49 | +0.90 | 3.72 | 239 | 81 |
| Misael Siverio L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 80 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 80 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 200 | 80 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.95 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.78 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.17 | 3.37 | 440 | 80 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.84 | 24.2% | 6.1% | 32 | -0.27 | 2.75 | 315 | 79 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 79 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.29 | 17.1% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 119 | 79 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.80 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.89 | 16.4% | 0.1% | 47 | +1.09 | 3.73 | 280 | 79 |
| Tommy Henry L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.80 | 22.2% | 11.8% | 3.8% | .327 | 4.46 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 417 | -0.34 | 4.33 | 629 | 79 |
| James Paxton L 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 79 |
| Damon Jones L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 25.9% | 13.8% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.25 | 25.5% | 7.4% | 41 | +0.40 | 3.85 | 269 | 79 |
| Cameron Bishop L 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.52 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .316 | 3.28 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 66 | -1.24 | 2.86 | 305 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 111 | 21.4% | 10.9% | 1.11 | 4.63 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |