Caden Favors

P Akron RubberDucks

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 219 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#843ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	A+CLE	25	25	108	4.08	3.41	24.4%	11.2%	—	K 18.8% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.32
2026	24	AACLE	26	25	128	4.71	4.27	25.9%	8.9%	—	K 21.0% · BB 9.8% · FIP 5.25
2027PROJ	25	MLBCLE	1	1	3	5.03	5.03	21.3%	10.8%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCLE	11	11	65	4.92	4.90	21.9%	10.5%	0.4
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCLE	12	12	75	4.88	4.89	21.9%	10.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.8M2032Arb-2$0.7M2033Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 5.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 83%

CompsErik Bedard (age 25) · Anthony Veneziano (age 25) · Dalton Sawyer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112121vR 129

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%21.3%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP148

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2032	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	4	1	12	53	13	2	1	25%	2.9	18.2%	4.5%	13.7%	2.9%	3.09	3.73	—
2024	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	4	1	12	53	13	2	1	25%	2.9	18.2%	4.5%	13.7%	2.9%	3.09	3.73	—
2024	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	4	1	12	53	13	2	1	25%	2.9	24.5%	3.8%	20.8%	1.9%	3.09	2.50	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	25	25	108	463	113	52	8	100%	4.3	18.8%	12.9%	5.9%	2.1%	4.08	4.32	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	25	25	108	463	113	52	8	100%	4.3	18.8%	12.9%	5.9%	2.1%	4.08	4.32	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	25	25	108	463	113	52	8	100%	4.3	24.4%	11.2%	13.2%	1.7%	4.08	3.41	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	26	25	128	540	140	48	22	96%	4.9	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	4.9%	4.71	5.25	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	26	25	128	540	140	48	22	96%	4.9	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	4.9%	4.71	5.25	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	26	25	128	540	140	48	22	96%	4.9	25.9%	8.9%	17.0%	4.1%	4.71	4.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CLE	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	21.3%	10.8%	10.4%	3.6%	5.03	5.03	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	148	625	137	65	22	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	3.5%	4.92	4.90	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	CLE	20	20	118	499	109	52	18	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.3%	11.6%	3.5%	4.88	4.89	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	110	464	101	48	17	100%	6.1	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	3.6%	4.90	4.94	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	102	429	93	45	16	100%	6.0	21.6%	10.5%	11.0%	3.8%	4.99	5.06	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	92	389	82	42	15	100%	6.1	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	4.0%	5.14	5.23	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	65	274	60	29	10	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	3.5%	4.92	4.90	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	75	317	69	33	11	100%	6.2	21.9%	10.3%	11.6%	3.5%	4.88	4.89	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	83	350	76	36	13	100%	5.9	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	3.6%	4.90	4.94	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	83	350	76	37	13	100%	5.9	21.6%	10.5%	11.0%	3.7%	4.98	5.05	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	79	334	71	36	13	100%	6.1	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	3.9%	5.13	5.22	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	385	1626	352	171	60	100%	6.0	21.7%	10.5%	11.1%	3.7%	4.96	4.62	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	183	89	31	100%	6.0	21.7%	10.5%	11.1%	3.7%	4.96	4.62	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		55	51	248	1056	210	115	38	93%	4.5	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	3.6%	4.36	4.77	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	41	200	853	170	93	31	93%	4.5	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	3.6%	4.36	4.77	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 128 IPFIP 4.27 → 5.25 (+0.98)K% 25.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.810	21.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.89%	—	×1.100	9.78%
HR / BF /BF	4.07%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.89%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.27 → 5.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lake County Captains · 108 IPFIP 3.41 → 4.32 (+0.91)K% 24.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.41%	—	×0.770	18.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.23%	—	×1.150	12.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷1.011	×1.250	2.14%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 3.41 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALynchburg Hillcats · 12 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.73 (+1.18)K% 24.5% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.53%	—	×0.740	18.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.77%	—	×1.180	4.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷0.844	×1.300	2.91%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caden Favors (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.91	21.9%	11.5%	376	-0.12	—	—	—
Erik Bedard L 2004 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP	4.01	19.1%	11.1%	2.1%	.317	3.28	23.8%	15.5%	520	-0.73	2.96	1,317	83
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	19.4%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.51	17.5%	8.3%	190	+0.30	4.18	539	82
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	81
Austin Warner L 2019 · 5.04 FIP	25	SP	5.04	18.9%	9.0%	4.4%	.313	4.37	19.3%	11.0%	159	-0.67	3.81	491	80
Amir Garrett L 2017 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP	5.33	18.7%	10.1%	4.6%	.302	3.60	30.3%	19.5%	137	-1.73	3.06	712	80
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	80
Matthew Boyd L 2016 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	19.7%	7.0%	3.6%	.276	4.23	24.1%	17.0%	542	-0.04	2.22	1,457	79
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	79
Sean Newcomb L 2018 · 4.03 FIP	25	SP	4.03	23.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.272	3.63	24.5%	13.9%	152	-0.40	2.76	1,030	78
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	78
Will Dion L 2024 · 4.97 FIP	24	SP	4.97	19.3%	9.4%	4.2%	.309	3.39	23.5%	16.3%	186	-1.58	3.14	535	77
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	77
Bryan Sammons L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP	4.28	21.1%	11.0%	2.9%	.287	6.30	18.5%	6.7%	158	+2.02	3.58	688	76
Daniel Camarena L 2018 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	15.9%	9.7%	2.4%	.338	4.71	16.9%	10.5%	187	+0.39	3.76	674	76
Jonathan Dziedzic L 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	15.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.292	4.80	14.2%	5.3%	243	+0.48	3.88	522	76
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	76
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	76
Jeriome Robertson L 2003 · 4.70 FIP	26	SP	4.70	13.9%	7.9%	3.2%	.295	7.27	8.0%	-1.3%	14	+2.57	4.70	175	76
Colton Gordon L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	20.4%	6.7%	3.0%	.286	4.69	18.3%	13.4%	281	+0.80	2.73	586	75
Chad Bell L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	15.7%	7.4%	2.3%	.326	4.07	19.0%	10.2%	252	+0.10	3.39	393	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	120	21.6%	10.6%	1.41	4.97
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*